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I don't think it makes sense to apply recruiting history/trends to Tillery's status with ND.
He's clearly a-typical, in that he's a national recruit (or will be), he's in Louisianna, and he committed to ND a year early (no info, but I'd bet the numbers for 'elite' out of state kids that DO choose ND, is really, really high for 'last second announcements' or 'NSD decisions' and really, really low for 'committed to ND early'.... Insert exception to rule here ___________). And when you hear his words from an interview, you can tell he's not a typical high school kid.
Not saying he's a ND lock, but trying to apply logic in a recruitment that so far defies logic, is illogical.
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That actually makes perfect sense in terms of "logic" lol. And reps for the use of Spock.