Oct 5 | Arizona State

[Irish Insanity]

Agree. Only hope is what Wisconsin was able to do. If we can be physical at the line of scrimmage and play keep away, that perhaps gives us a chance. Those are big "If's".

Not sure we can play keep away when lately we just give it away

 

[TheChosen1]

JJ Stankevitz‏@JJStankevitz

RT @KegsnEggs: Arizona State opens up a 4.5-point favorite over Notre Dame (Wynn).

 

[IrishFan4L]

Does anyone here not just feel unsafe about this game but every game here on out. There is not a game on the schedule I would guarantee.

 

[tko]

Does anyone here not just feel unsafe about this game but every game here on out. There is not a game on the schedule I would guarantee.

Feels like the days of old and wondering which team will come out of the tunnel and which coach will coach the team. I hate the uncertainty.

 

[RyCo1983]

I was figuring on 9-3 with Golson...This was a toss up.

I've definitely got this one as a loss now.

 

[rtrn2glory]

We open as a 6.5 dog next week.

Not giving us enough points?

take ASU with that and run all day!!

 

[T Town Tommy]

Come on guys. Geez.

The Irish offensive line should be able to push ASU around. I can see the rbs getting into the second level of the Sun Devil defense a lot. Once they do that, then Rees should have time to throw the ball. Just take what they give you and be happy with 12 play 5:00 minute drives that leads to points.

Their qb can't beat you standing on the sideline. And if Rees snaps the ball before the play clock gets under five seconds each play I would give him a lashing. The key to the game is keeping their offense off the field. And Tommy being happy getting a six or seven yard pass to move the chains rather than a 20 yard pass that looks great on film but falls incomplete more often than not. Bring them tight ends on... get them wide in the seam 5-8 yards out, let them sit on the pass, and let the rbs do the rest.

 

[NDWorld247]

Come on guys. Geez.

The Irish offensive line should be able to push ASU around. I can see the rbs getting into the second level of the Sun Devil defense a lot. Once they do that, then Rees should have time to throw the ball. Just take what they give you and be happy with 12 play 5:00 minute drives that leads to points.

Their qb can't beat you standing on the sideline. And if Rees snaps the ball before the play clock gets under five seconds each play I would give him a lashing. The key to the game is keeping their offense off the field. And Tommy being happy getting a six or seven yard pass to move the chains rather than a 20 yard pass that looks great on film but falls incomplete more often than not. Bring them tight ends on... get them wide in the seam 5-8 yards out, let them sit on the pass, and let the rbs do the rest.

Will Sutton is the 2nd best NT in the country behind Nix. I'm not sure we're going to push him around, but I agree with the rest of your post and that we should still be able to run the ball.

The key to this week is a fast start. We should know very early in the 1st how this game will go.

 

[returnofthemack]

ASU favored by 4.5 doesn't mean Vegas expects them to win by 4-5 points, right? I don't really understand how betting works. In this case, is it set at that because most fans will bet on ASU to win by (much) more than 4.5?

 

[returnofthemack]

Come on guys. Geez.

The Irish offensive line should be able to push ASU around. I can see the rbs getting into the second level of the Sun Devil defense a lot. Once they do that, then Rees should have time to throw the ball. Just take what they give you and be happy with 12 play 5:00 minute drives that leads to points.

Their qb can't beat you standing on the sideline. And if Rees snaps the ball before the play clock gets under five seconds each play I would give him a lashing. The key to the game is keeping their offense off the field. And Tommy being happy getting a six or seven yard pass to move the chains rather than a 20 yard pass that looks great on film but falls incomplete more often than not. Bring them tight ends on... get them wide in the seam 5-8 yards out, let them sit on the pass, and let the rbs do the rest.

He never snaps it with more than 5 seconds. How would he make his Peyton Manning-like checks otherwise?

 

[NDohio]

Come on guys. Geez.

The Irish offensive line should be able to push ASU around. I can see the rbs getting into the second level of the Sun Devil defense a lot. Once they do that, then Rees should have time to throw the ball. Just take what they give you and be happy with 12 play 5:00 minute drives that leads to points.

Their qb can't beat you standing on the sideline. And if Rees snaps the ball before the play clock gets under five seconds each play I would give him a lashing. The key to the game is keeping their offense off the field. And Tommy being happy getting a six or seven yard pass to move the chains rather than a 20 yard pass that looks great on film but falls incomplete more often than not. Bring them tight ends on... get them wide in the seam 5-8 yards out, let them sit on the pass, and let the rbs do the rest.

WOW!!! An AL fan has a more positive outlook for our next game(rest of season) than a good number of our own fans. SMH.

Thanks for being a bright spot in our dismal fan base you SEC scum.

 

[Grahambo]

Will Sutton is the 2nd best NT in the country behind Nix. I'm not sure we're going to push him around, but I agree with the rest of your post and that we should still be able to run the ball.

The key to this week is a fast start. We should know very early in the 1st how this game will go.

Instead of a fast start, I'll accept a mistake free start.

 

[tussin]

It's objectively pretty comical when Tommy is the most optimistic poster on this board.

 

[irishfan]

ASU favored by 4.5 doesn't mean Vegas expects them to win by 4-5 points, right? I don't really understand how betting works. In this case, is it set at that because most fans will bet on ASU to win by (much) more than 4.5?

I could be mistaken, but I think Vegas places the spread at whatever value they figure will most likely result in an equal amount of money being placed on both teams? Could be wrong.

 

[returnofthemack]

I could be mistaken, but I think Vegas places the spread at whatever value they figure will most likely result in an equal amount of money being placed on both teams? Could be wrong.

Ok, that makes sense - thanks.

 

[IrishLax]

ASU favored by 4.5 doesn't mean Vegas expects them to win by 4-5 points, right? I don't really understand how betting works. In this case, is it set at that because most fans will bet on ASU to win by (much) more than 4.5?

It sorta does... implicitly. Typically, lines are set such that they are where the public will split bets 50/50 on the line.

Because long term teams are going to cover/fail to cover 50% of the time that means that whatever the line ends up at is the point where an outcome on either side of the line is equally probable... and therefor, while a team favored by 7 points doesn't explicitly mean that the expected final score, if you looked at a standard distribution a 7 point victory would fall right in the middle of the most probable results.

These probabilities of victory are typically reflected in the moneyline odds for who will be the winner outright. Very rarely do the moneylines depart from the implicit moneyline as can be determined via point spread. And over time... moneylines are as accurate as you can possibly get at putting odds on the winner. As such, whatever the Vegas line is set (specifically the moneyline if available) gives you a very accurate projection of the expected result.

What should trouble all ND fans is that the line has moved away sharply from ND for every single game this season and Notre Dame has failed to cover a single time (unless you look at some of the books where the MSU line went all the way down from -7 to -3.5 at the last second). I can't remember the last time ND covered... maybe Wake Forest last year? I know we covered against Oklahoma in 2012. So Vegas has been a bit generous towards ND... the public has corrected... and we've still failed to cover. Alternatively, another theory would be that Tommy's turnovers/Chuck Martin's play calling/the myriad of other things going inexplicably crappy is all point shaving and that someone is on the take with the mob/a betting syndicate and that is driving the money + bad results. That's the tinfoil hat level. But weirder things have happened.

 

[RDU Irish]

I think we traditionally fail to cover b/c Vegas counts on ND getting more bets FOR them and moves the line to 1) draw counter bets and 2) balance their book.

Odds are implied by the line, however all books are have to be "balanced" to avoid too much risk. Part of the reason you will see different odds at different books, they may have heavy betting one way and try to balance the book.

 

[ACamp1900]

The more I think about this game the more upset I become... If ND loses this game you can start thinking about next year in terms of national presence... at the midway point of THIS season...

Now, when you look at ASU's roster vs. ours the game shouldn’t be close... sorry they don't have ND's talent level... but they'll probably win... I think it's gut check time for the coaching staff honestly... win this game or rightfully take some heat... If ASU is that much further ahead with their talent and one less year than ND is with a better talent pool and two extra years, that's on the staff.

 

[IrishLax]

I think we traditionally fail to cover b/c Vegas counts on ND getting more bets FOR them and moves the line to 1) draw counter bets and 2) balance their book.

Odds are implied by the line, however all books are have to be "balanced" to avoid too much risk. Part of the reason you will see different odds at different books, they may have heavy betting one way and try to balance the book.

Correct in theory, but that's not what's happening this year though. The lines are moving about a full 3 points TOWARDS Notre Dame heading up to kickoff, implying heavy betting against ND. For example, the Michigan line moved from Michigan -3 to Michigan -6.5 to entice more action on Notre Dame to presumably balance heavy betting on Michigan. This has happened every week. And Notre Dame still can't cover the improved line.

Also, no teams long term fail to cover. If that was the case (like let's say Notre Dame failed to cover 60% of the time) then this would be common knowledge and the market would correct by betting heavy against Notre Dame. As such, by betting heavy against Notre Dame, the line would move more and more in favor of ND... and those increased odds would help Notre Dame cover. Accordingly, there are no teams in sports that cover or fail cover at a rate appreciably different than 50% long term. In the grand scheme of things every team covers/doesn't cover at ~50% give or take a few points.

 

[RDU Irish]

With moving lines, how do you run that stat? My take has always been the house doesn't care if you cover or not b/c they are set up to win either way.

 

[RDU Irish]

The more I think about this game the more upset I become... If ND loses this game you can start thinking about next year in terms of national presence... at the midway point of THIS season...

Now, when you look at ASU's roster vs. ours the game shouldn’t be close... sorry they don't have ND's talent level... but they'll probably win... I think it's gut check time for the coaching staff honestly... win this game or rightfully take some heat... If ASU is that much further ahead with their talent and one less year than ND is with a better talent pool and two extra years, that's on the staff.

These games get frustrating when you see lesser talent executing at a higher level than us to get an advantage. Their schemes can't be that complicated or else they wouldn't be able to implement them so effectively. Why are we vapor locked constantly unless we have all Americans calling plays (damn do I miss Manti right now).

 

[Ndaccountant]

These games get frustrating when you see lesser talent executing at a higher level than us to get an advantage. Their schemes can't be that complicated or else they wouldn't be able to implement them so effectively. Why are we vapor locked constantly unless we have all Americans calling plays (damn do I miss Manti right now).

Flip flop Kelly for Tommy.....that about sums it up.

 

[irishpat183]

I'm going to get really, really hammered at this game.

Not only do I hate the Cowboys, but it's going to make it even more depressing when the Irish lose to a party school in Cowboys stadium.


Good think we're going to the Spermint Rhino after.....

 

[Cackalacky]

everyone on this board is going to have 3 A$$holes from that pitchfork.

As full of shits some posters here are, 3 a$$holes might be beneficial.

 

[dshans]

Good think we're going to the Spermint Rhino after.....

[My apologies in advance, Pat.]


Are you sure you haven't been sitting on a barstool there for a few hours already?

Where do the Bad think you're going after the game?

Is the Spermint Rhino a zoological repository for rhinoceros "juice?"

Enjoy the weekend.

Oh ... and GO IRISH!

 

[irishknight35]

Doesn't look like a good match-up for ND any way you slice it.

Todd Graham coached teams for what ever reason just know how to beat the schemes Kelly and Co. put out there. Graham gets his teams hyped up and ready to play the Irish and they consistently stifle whatever game plan Kelly thinks is going to work.

Graham seems to get more out of his players when playing the Irish. And comically he has found a way to only play ND when Tommy Rees is playing QB.

2010 Graham with Tulsa: Wins 28-27

2011 Graham with Pitt: Loss 15-12

Graham with ASU looks far superior to any team he has shown the Irish before.

A lot of growing up to do for some of these Irish players if they are going to be competitive on Saturday. Someone....anyone needs to bring a freaking mean/angry attitude to the field on Saturday because I guarantee ASU is going want it more than the Irish.

 

[NDWorld247]

I'm going to get really, really hammered at this game.

Not only do I hate the Cowboys, but it's going to make it even more depressing when the Irish lose to a party school in Cowboys stadium.

I feel really bad for the fans sitting around you on Saturday. Just remember that the players and coaches can't hear you from the upper deck and the only purpose of the vulgarities that are sure to spew from your mouth are to attract attention to yourself. No one sitting around you deserves that.

 

[Wild Bill]

Spent every spare moment I've had for the past sixteen months rehabbing a house I bought. I finished it last week, got my first rent check and decided to head south for the game. Hopefully the boys come to play.

 

[IrishLax]

I think ND could get smoked... but they do have a solid chance in this game. Arizona State's offense is streaky and dangerous. Need to limit the number of possessions and force big negative plays like Stanford. It will be hard, but doable.

On offense... it worries me that we couldn't run the ball at all on Purdue, but watching USC absolutely gash their defense gives me hope. Same with watching Stanford maul them on the ground. Their run defense is pretty darn pathetic. Control the clock and run the ball down their throats like we did to Miami in 2012 and we can knock their explosive offense out of rhythm. Fall behind early and watch out...

 

[rikkitikki08]

In my opinion , ND wins the time of possession battle ND wins the game. IF its low scoring going into the fourth quarter i really really like ND's chances. I have a bachelor party that night so ill be watching on bar TVs while getting exceptionally drunk.