Top 12 Most Consistently Overrated Teams

chubler

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I love how this data comes right as ESPN began cranking up their coverage/dominance of the college football "narrative"...

Is this, perhaps, empirical evidence that ESPN creates more hype and better poll standing for teams they carry? someone's gotta have the stat's background to figure that out.

Also, I'd like to stake my claim as the first to welcome Ohio State to the list, pending their imminent fall from the top of the preseason polls this season.
 
Whiskeyjack

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chubler said:
Also, I'd like to stake my claim as the first to welcome Ohio State to the list, pending their imminent fall from the top of the preseason polls this season.
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Pray tell, aside from UM, which team among this this veritable murderer's row has a realistic chance of knocking off OSU?

It's a shame they don't play the Little Sisters of the Poor. Would probably improve their SoS.
 
NOLAIrish

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connor_in said:
Anyone know what our rankings were to figure out what our number would be?
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1998: Preseason - 22 | Final - 22 | Difference: 0
1999: Preseason - 18 | Final - Unranked | Difference: -8
2000: Preseason - Unranked | Final - 15 | Difference: +11
2001: Preseason - 18 | Final - Unranked | Difference: -8
2002: Preseason - Unranked | Final - 17 | Difference: +9
2003: Preseason - 20 | Final - Unranked | Difference: -6
2004: Preseason - Unranked | Final - Unranked | Difference: 0
2005: Preseason - Unranked | Final - 9 | Difference:+17
2006: Preseason - 2 | Final - 17 | Difference: -15
2007: Preseason - Unranked | Final - Unranked | Difference: 0
2008: Preseason - Unranked | Final - Unranked | Difference: 0
2009: Preseason - 23 | Final - Unranked | Difference: -3
2010: Preseason - Unranked | Final - Unranked | Difference: 0
2011: Preseason - 16 | Final - Unranked | Difference: -10
2012: Preseason - Unranked | Final - 4 | Difference: +22

Negative change: 50
Positive change: 59
Average change per season: +0.6 spots.

They have to be including positive shifts in their numbers, too. Otherwise, we'd be 7th. Without last year, we still don't make the list (-0.87 spots per season)
 
Walter White

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Whiskeyjack said:
Pray tell, aside from UM, which team among this this veritable murderer's row has a realistic chance of knocking off OSU?

It's a shame they don't play the Little Sisters of the Poor. Would probably improve their SoS.
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Maybe Purdue (I really like their new coach and they have some good defensive talent on their DL and corner) or Northwestern(coming off a ten win season and returning their QB) could surprise them.

Others with a chance could be Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan.

That out of conference schedule is ridiculous though.
 
connor_in

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NOLAIrish said:
1998: Preseason - 22 | Final - 22 | Difference: 0
1999: Preseason - 18 | Final - Unranked | Difference: -8
2000: Preseason - Unranked | Final - 15 | Difference: +11
2001: Preseason - 18 | Final - Unranked | Difference: -8
2002: Preseason - Unranked | Final - 17 | Difference: +9
2003: Preseason - 20 | Final - Unranked | Difference: -6
2004: Preseason - Unranked | Final - Unranked | Difference: 0
2005: Preseason - Unranked | Final - 9 | Difference:+17
2006: Preseason - 2 | Final - 17 | Difference: -15
2007: Preseason - Unranked | Final - Unranked | Difference: 0
2008: Preseason - Unranked | Final - Unranked | Difference: 0
2009: Preseason - 23 | Final - Unranked | Difference: -3
2010: Preseason - Unranked | Final - Unranked | Difference: 0
2011: Preseason - 16 | Final - Unranked | Difference: -10
2012: Preseason - Unranked | Final - 4 | Difference: +22

Negative change: 50
Positive change: 59
Average change per season: +0.6 spots.

They have to be including positive shifts in their numbers, too. Otherwise, we'd be 7th. Without last year, we still don't make the list (-0.87 spots per season)
Click to expand...



Reps my man...thx for putting this together
 
anarin

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Haven't read the list, I'm guessing Florida State is ranked high though.

EDIT: Just read it, and they're on top. BAHAHAHAHA
 
Irish Houstonian

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NOLAIrish said:
2007: Preseason - Unranked | Final - Unranked | Difference: 0
2008: Preseason - Unranked | Final - Unranked | Difference: 0
2009: Preseason - 23 | Final - Unranked | Difference: -3
2010: Preseason - Unranked | Final - Unranked | Difference: 0
2011: Preseason - 16 | Final - Unranked | Difference: -10
Click to expand...

Well that sucks...
 
Rudy89

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I thought we finished 24th or 25th in 2010? Guess I was wrong
 
NOLAIrish

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Rudy89 said:
I thought we finished 24th or 25th in 2010? Guess I was wrong
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I went back and re-checked - we were unranked for the entire season.

There are some serious flaws with the methodology here. Being unranked in the preseason poll is a huge advantage; ND was unranked 8 out of 15 seasons. Being ranked inside the top 10 or so is a huge disadvantage; ND was ranked in the top 10 only once. There's also the issue that rankings differences don't directly correlate with "ratings" differences, and the error grows as you approach the top (i.e. mistakenly rating a team first when it's the fifth best team is a much more serious case of overrating a team than rating it 21st when it's the 25th best team).

Still, fun discussion point.
 
ulukinatme

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NOLAIrish said:
I went back and re-checked - we were unranked for the entire season.

There are some serious flaws with the methodology here. Being unranked in the preseason poll is a huge advantage; ND was unranked 8 out of 15 seasons. Being ranked inside the top 10 or so is a huge disadvantage; ND was ranked in the top 10 only once. There's also the issue that rankings differences don't directly correlate with "ratings" differences, and the error grows as you approach the top (i.e. mistakenly rating a team first when it's the fifth best team is a much more serious case of overrating a team than rating it 21st when it's the 25th best team).

Still, fun discussion point.
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This is a good point. We haven't had many high rankings to start the season the last several years, but we always hear the cries of "overrated" in October before the team would fall apart in November. We're seeing less of that now, but it's still fun to see Michigan, Miami, and Florida State in this list.
 
Irish YJ

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I love ND to the core, but they should be on the list IMO. There are a few teams on this list who have won NC's lately. How they can be on the list, and us not,,,, well that's just logically wrong to me.
 
IrishLax

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ulukinatme said:
Looks like they locked it up, couldn't handle the truth
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Hilarious that just because they're on the list (not even the top team) they get their panties in such a bunch.

To those saying the list doesn't make sense or the methodology is bad... I disagree. There is no other way to objectively measure how overrated someone is from pre-season to end then looking at where they started and where they finished.

I always get into arguments with people who say "ND gets too much pre-season hype" and this list proves what I'm always defending... ND quite often is NOT ranked to start the year and definitely gets no special "pre-season" treatment as we're widely accused of getting. As often as we fall flat below expectations we come out of nowhere and wildly surpass the bar set by pundits. FSU, OKLAHOMA, etc. are the teams that need to be taken down a couple pegs.
 
Rack Em

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IrishLax said:
Hilarious that just because they're on the list (not even the top team) they get their panties in such a bunch.

To those saying the list doesn't make sense or the methodology is bad... I disagree. There is no other way to objectively measure how overrated someone is from pre-season to end then looking at where they started and where they finished.

I always get into arguments with people who say "ND gets too much pre-season hype" and this list proves what I'm always defending... ND quite often is NOT ranked to start the year and definitely gets no special "pre-season" treatment as we're widely accused of getting. As often as we fall flat below expectations we come out of nowhere and wildly surpass the bar set by pundits. FSU, OKLAHOMA, etc. are the teams that need to be taken down a couple pegs.
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1) They hired Rich Rod! What the hell did they expect? Of course they'll be on the list because they sucked dick during his time there.

2) ND gets lots of "exposure" whether they are ranked or not. It's like the Yankees. They'll always be one of the first 2-3 baseball games shown on SportsCenter because they're so popular and have a national following. I'm convinced that gives people the impression that we're consistently over ranked. They equate TV coverage with high expectations.
 
NOLAIrish

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IrishLax said:
Hilarious that just because they're on the list (not even the top team) they get their panties in such a bunch.

To those saying the list doesn't make sense or the methodology is bad... I disagree. There is no other way to objectively measure how overrated someone is from pre-season to end then looking at where they started and where they finished.

I always get into arguments with people who say "ND gets too much pre-season hype" and this list proves what I'm always defending... ND quite often is NOT ranked to start the year and definitely gets no special "pre-season" treatment as we're widely accused of getting. As often as we fall flat below expectations we come out of nowhere and wildly surpass the bar set by pundits. FSU, OKLAHOMA, etc. are the teams that need to be taken down a couple pegs.
Click to expand...

Just to clarify: I wholeheartedly agree with your underlying argument. ND's preseason rankings get even more negative pressure than positive; the absurd rankings we saw coming out of SEC reporters last year more than prove that. I think there absolutely are ways to demonstrate this using rankings data. This specific analysis just doesn't quite get us there, though it has some utility as a rough-and-dirty demonstration.
 
phork

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If it wasn't for last year we probably would have been.
 
phork

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The funniest points of these replies is they keep trying to insult me by saying "WELL ITS EASY WHEN YOU START UNRANKED AND FINISH UNRANKED". Yes, thats actually the point. We are NOT overrated. And then someone says "I WONDER WHY THE MEDIA HYPES THEM EVERY YEAR", clearly they don't.

As much BS as I feel like this list is, they are proving it to be true. Pure Michigan.
 
IrishLax

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phork said:
If it wasn't for last year we probably would have been.
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Someone did the math and even without last year we still wouldn't have made the list.

You hit the nail on the head, and it's sad that Michigan mouth breathers can't grasp it.... the essence of being OVER-rated starts with being rated high. It's impossible to be overrated if no one is rating you to begin with. So logically, you can't say Notre Dame is "hyped" or "overrated" when they're not being rated high in the pre-season............. and then surpassing expectations more often than they fall short.
 
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