Guys, here is how this plays out:
Draw Portugal, lose to Germany. This outcome depends on the result of the Portugal-Ghana match:
◾If Portugal beats Ghana, the U.S. and Portugal tie for second. The U.S. is favored (although not guaranteed) to advance based on goal differential because Portugal’s 4-0 loss against Germany could come back to haunt it.
◾If Ghana beats Portugal, the U.S. and Ghana tie for second. This is a more dangerous case for the United States. For example, if it loses to Germany by more than one goal, or Ghana beats Portugal by more than one goal, the U.S. will lose the tiebreaker to Ghana. It also doesn’t help the U.S. that Ghana’s match against Germany was high-scoring because FIFA’s second tiebreaker is based on the number of goals scored. For example, if the U.S. draws Portugal 1-1, loses to Germany 1-0, and Ghana beats Portugal 1-0, then the U.S. and Ghana will have even goal differentials. But Ghana will have four goals scored to the Americans’ three and Ghana will advance.
◾If Portugal draws Ghana, the U.S. finishes in sole possession of second place and advances.
Germany’s Draw Didn’t Help the U.S. | FiveThirtyEight
Draw Portugal, lose to Germany. This outcome depends on the result of the Portugal-Ghana match:
◾If Portugal beats Ghana, the U.S. and Portugal tie for second. The U.S. is favored (although not guaranteed) to advance based on goal differential because Portugal’s 4-0 loss against Germany could come back to haunt it.
◾If Ghana beats Portugal, the U.S. and Ghana tie for second. This is a more dangerous case for the United States. For example, if it loses to Germany by more than one goal, or Ghana beats Portugal by more than one goal, the U.S. will lose the tiebreaker to Ghana. It also doesn’t help the U.S. that Ghana’s match against Germany was high-scoring because FIFA’s second tiebreaker is based on the number of goals scored. For example, if the U.S. draws Portugal 1-1, loses to Germany 1-0, and Ghana beats Portugal 1-0, then the U.S. and Ghana will have even goal differentials. But Ghana will have four goals scored to the Americans’ three and Ghana will advance.
◾If Portugal draws Ghana, the U.S. finishes in sole possession of second place and advances.
Germany’s Draw Didn’t Help the U.S. | FiveThirtyEight