I think the knock against your 2nd point is that 2024 is Ron’s time. If he waits until 2028 he won’t be in office anymore, as his 2nd term as Governor would end in January of 2027. There also might be someone else who gains popularity between 2024 and 2028.
I also think Ron is too big of a star to be saddled with Trump’s baggage by agreeing to be his VP. He is much smarter, far more articulate, and a better debater than Trump, and he has nowhere near the baggage. He also won’t alienate the suburban wine moms like Trump did. We saw this with Youngkin in Virginia. When Trump was off the ballot and not the biggest issue, Youngkin was able to win over voters, particularly women voters, who hated Trump and voted for Biden.