Time for new partner: Big 10 or SEC?

IrishLax

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Fact is - nobody in that room was lobbying for us. ND ground game got caught flat footed. Our PR team blows. Confusing Ivory Tower with High Ground in their approach across the board.
Biggest lesson learned is about naivette. Greg Sankey said months ago that he was *individually lobbying* committee members (shouldn't even be legal, but I digress) in addition to having 4x SEC affiliated reps on the committee. There should have been alarm bells going off as soon as Miami started their PR campaign against ND, but even before that we needed to be way more political. We "trusted the process" which said we were in the field, and that was a huge mistake.
 

NDPhilly

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Biggest lesson learned is about naivette. Greg Sankey said months ago that he was *individually lobbying* committee members (shouldn't even be legal, but I digress) in addition to having 4x SEC affiliated reps on the committee. There should have been alarm bells going off as soon as Miami started their PR campaign against ND, but even before that we needed to be way more political. We "trusted the process" which said we were in the field, and that was a huge mistake.

I have a tough time believing someone with Pete’s background is this naive.

However I haven’t been impressed with our PR plan here. I can’t imagine MF loves it either. If it’s part of a greater plan of laying the ground work for a suit, sure. Again I would think Pete understands the optics of spending 48 hours whining publicly.
 

DomeFieldAdvantage

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The most under-covered story is that SEC was actually ass this year. The Big Ten had 3x teams better than all of their teams, and then ND/Texas Tech are also top tier. Georgia is very good. Everyone else is mediocre and really has no shot whatsoever to win a title and they got FIVE of them in because they only play 8 conference games which juices their records. Have Alabama play Texas, have Oklahoma play Vanderbilt, have Georgia play TAMU, and have Ole Miss play TAMU and see what their records are.

The ACC has/had similar problems with lack of cross play, but at least they play 9 games.
As you point out with the ACC, even 9 conference games isn't enough with how big these conferences are now.

I feel like a solution to this and helping fix bowl games is to make the bowl games the 13th "regular season" game. As in, have 10ish bowl games take place before the CFP selection and put in all of the top 25 plus top G5 teams minus the conference championship participants. That way every team that would play in the playoff has played 13 games, so there is no reason to get rid of conference championships. It would also allow the committee to get the chance to see bubble teams play another quality opponent and there would be more interconference games to measure the relative strength of each conference.
 

ACamp1900

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As you point out with the ACC, even 9 conference games isn't enough with how big these conferences are now.

I feel like a solution to this and helping fix bowl games is to make the bowl games the 13th "regular season" game. As in, have 10ish bowl games take place before the CFP selection and put in all of the top 25 plus top G5 teams minus the conference championship participants. That way every team that would play in the playoff has played 13 games, so there is no reason to get rid of conference championships. It would also allow the committee to get the chance to see bubble teams play another quality opponent and there would be more interconference games to measure the relative strength of each conference.
They need to stagger scheduling,… you only schedule the first 6 games of the conference schedule and in week 8 you take the top of the mega conferences and build a remaining schedule with only those teams and vice versa. Waiting until the playoff for many of these conference teams to play each other is nonsense and the most infuriating thing about all this is no one, literally no one mentions this
 

RDU Irish

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Well, I agree that the ACC should think long-term in protecting and advancing the interests of its members. You seem to be asserting that the ACC has a pivotal long-term benefit by having a "partnership" with ND since it is that relationship that will save the conference. Okay, but I doubt that is the case. The prospects of the conference are tied to improvement in its football programs. That is it.

You are really diminishing the perceived value of a Duke degree. I can only assume you never touched the business school as it is supposedly pretty good. Duke REDUCED the size of their stadium recently to 35,000 and can't even fill that up without ND. I know this from my attendance of the Duke/SMU game last year (with SMU friends). What a thriller of a game to an empty stadium at the end. That's an exaggeration - there were some SMU fans who stayed through over time. Far from a sell out hosting playoff hopeful and ACC contending Mustangs.

You can't give away Duke tickets on a good day but when ND comes to town, the stadium is full and prices are up. At minimum there is a $100 per seat benefit to ND in the stadium versus any non-conference game Duke has ever hosts. That is $3.5M in case your barista register doesn't math that high. Higher math is needed to calculate the value of moving the TV eyeball number six decimals to the right.

Stick to basketball. Duke football belongs in the Sun Belt. Maybe you stick to the glorified high school gymnasium b/c you can't fill a bigger arena too? 3,000 foreign students on campus make it hard to get excited about American sports.
 

IRISHbluehen

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I have a tough time believing someone with Pete’s background is this naive.

However I haven’t been impressed with our PR plan here. I can’t imagine MF loves it either. If it’s part of a greater plan of laying the ground work for a suit, sure. Again I would think Pete understands the optics of spending 48 hours whining publicly.
Like it or not, college football has slowly morphed to resemble the world of politics. It is cutthroat to a degree most normal people can't understand or comprehend. Look what they did to Rhoads. It is corrupt to its absolute core and will continue to be. I'm sure Pete is not naive but I'm also sure that he didn't see something like this coming, as evidenced by his action/lack thereof.

Similar to politics, it is not simply winning power that is important, but wielding that power to your benefit once you have it. ND still has power and needs to wield it before we are forced to bend the knee to the leviathan
 

greyhammer90

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The more this guy talks the more I don't believe him. I could buy that he has Big 12 connections but his tweets in aggregate would suggest that he not only has a Big 12 connection but also a Big 10 connection and an ND connection who are all sharing things with him hour by hour. Its good to hear that what Lax is hearing is similar so maybe he's totally on the up and up though.
 

Veritate Duce Progredi

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The most under-covered story is that SEC was actually ass this year. The Big Ten had 3x teams better than all of their teams, and then ND/Texas Tech are also top tier. Georgia is very good. Everyone else is mediocre and really has no shot whatsoever to win a title and they got FIVE of them in because they only play 8 conference games which juices their records. Have Alabama play Texas, have Oklahoma play Vanderbilt, have Georgia play TAMU, and have Ole Miss play TAMU and see what their records are.

The ACC has/had similar problems with lack of cross play, but at least they play 9 games.
This is where I'm at and I'm still crafting my thoughts. The SEC started with how many ranked teams preseason? 10 of 25?

Then ESPN has a "proprietary" mechanism of calculating SOR which was used aggressively this year. All SOR formulas are somewhat similar from what I've read. But SOR is a rather blunt tool in that it counts black/white wins or losses then applies the calculations based on how a typical team would perform...something...soemthing. How does a close, last second loss work? It's just a loss and most teams would lose against a good opponent so it counts as absolutely nothing.

So FSU decleating Bama by 14 pts and ND losing by 1 on the last play on a 4th and 11 are equivalent (if I understand the metric correctly). Surely a metric could exist that takes a weighted sum of the most accurate statistical models of the past 4 years + apply a more sophisticated metric of looking at game control/win-probability over the time of the game to give a score. This shows how competitive/dominant you are in every game with some caps to keep the highs and lows from destroying the aggregate. You shouldn't get excessive points so it doesn't matter if you put up 70 on Syracuse or 56 on an FCS (although this should be valued less than other FBS wins).

I don't know what are the mechanisms by which SOR quickly rise or fall. A few bad teams? A bunch of middling teams? How much movement for a single top 5 win vs top 15 vs top 25 vs top 50?

Without enough crossover play, the SEC gets to discuss it's superiority over everyone because it's what is promoted by ESPN around the clock. How does this get uncoupled and laid bare so we can see the accuracy of these claims? Numbers guys? This is a bat signal for someone to help my feeble mind.
 

RDU Irish

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They need to stagger scheduling,… you only schedule the first 6 games of the conference schedule and in week 8 you take the top of the mega conferences and build a remaining schedule with only those teams and vice versa. Waiting until the playoff for many of these conference teams to play each other is nonsense and the most infuriating thing about all this is no one, literally no one mentions this

Four team conference playoff the last two weeks of the year. Thanksgiving round one, CCG games stay the same week after turkey. Build two divisions of 8 teams and round robin 7 games. Non-playoff teams get seeded and matched against the other division for Thanksgiving final game to give SoS opportunity for #5 and #6 to make their case for the deep league.

Top two from each division go into conference playoff. The rest get sorted for interdivisional games with preference for #3 vs #3, #4 vs #4 and so on for optimal sorting of overall conference rankings.

I know colleges and conferences are antithetical to merit and true competition so this would never fly.
 

ACamp1900

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Four team conference playoff the last two weeks of the year. Thanksgiving round one, CCG games stay the same week after turkey. Build two divisions of 8 teams and round robin 7 games. Non-playoff teams get seeded and matched against the other division for Thanksgiving final game to give SoS opportunity for #5 and #6 to make their case for the deep league.

Top two from each division go into conference playoff. The rest get sorted for interdivisional games with preference for #3 vs #3, #4 vs #4 and so on for optimal sorting of overall conference rankings.

I know colleges and conferences are antithetical to merit and true competition so this would never fly.
That’s why we need a commissioner or central body,… force them. If they want to have a mega conference they must ensure their top teams play each other
 

BleedBlueGold

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But the ACC had this behavior for 4+ weeks prior to the final seeding. Before Alabama had been shown to all but have a predetermined place set. Miami can do what it wants and how it wants. It earned that right by beating ND. The ACC chose to single out ND only, and in nearly every comparison it released when attempting to earn it's spot in the 12.

Why not compare Miami to Alabama? Or Oklahoma? Why not release something showing how well ND had done since it's premier member (Miami this year) beat them on opening day to strengthen the optics of their win? Why join the chorus of those focusing the light on ND as undeserving while the political maneuvering of the powerbrokers was occurring? Again, this is a business partner yes?

Imagine we run companies and enter an agreement that confers a mutual benefit. Obviously, your company doesn't take out ads to undercut/malign or injure my business and in turn, my company returns the favor. Our sales/purchasing power is improved by our agreement as we're not attempting to undercut one another, etc. But then you decide that you really need to pump up one of your brands for sales and a recent consumer report documents it won in head to head testing based on point totals.

Instead of simply runnings ads promoting where you shine, you repeatedly point out how my product is inferior because of testing and how yours is the same price or cheaper. Now, you've changed the dynamics of our relationship. I call you up and ask, "why are you targeting me all of a sudden?" You apologize and say, "it's just business. I've got a product that I need to sell while the market is hungry for it and I have stakeholders telling me they want to see increased profits."


Ok, fine. Those are the dynamics. The relationship has been fundamentally altered. We started at one place, now we're at another.

I used a vague analogy (it's not perfect) with a friend the other day:

It's sort of like if Dasani water ran a media blitz attacking Coke in trying to prove how much better water is for you than pop. Like yea, we get it Dasani. Water is better for you than pop, but you're attacking the company that literally props you up (owns you). Again, I know this isn't a perfect analogy, but when it comes to mouth breathers, I feel like it can suffice.

The response I seem to keep hearing from people who disagree with ND (at best) or just plain hate ND (at worst) is that ND is acting like a cry baby about this. "They aren't a member for football and all the ACC simply did was prop up one of their own full members." The irony, for me, is simple: That kind of response IS ACTUALLY emotional in nature. ND is being rational and business-minded about this.
 

ozzman

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The more this guy talks the more I don't believe him. I could buy that he has Big 12 connections but his tweets in aggregate would suggest that he not only has a Big 12 connection but also a Big 10 connection and an ND connection who are all sharing things with him hour by hour. Its good to hear that what Lax is hearing is similar so maybe he's totally on the up and up though.
Yeah. Does he have actual sources or is he throwing spaghetti? I figured it was the later until lax confirmed he was hearing similar. Hopefully we get more info from both as things progress.
 

Irish#1

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Like it or not, college football has slowly morphed to resemble the world of politics. It is cutthroat to a degree most normal people can't understand or comprehend. Look what they did to Rhoads. It is corrupt to its absolute core and will continue to be. I'm sure Pete is not naive but I'm also sure that he didn't see something like this coming, as evidenced by his action/lack thereof.

Similar to politics, it is not simply winning power that is important, but wielding that power to your benefit once you have it. ND still has power and needs to wield it before we are forced to bend the knee to the leviathan
I think you hit the nail on the head. While at NBC, Pete dealt with ND and/or other individual entities. Now he's dealing with schools and conferences who have historically worked behind the scenes with each other. This is where I hope Savvy Jack is advising him on where the land mines are.
 

thekid33

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In our anger and disappointment we all want action sooner rather than later.

But, I wonder if Pete isn't sending out feelers while then waiting on the future decisions about the playoff structure before deciding.

If it goes to 16 (or even beyond) the number of AQ spots vs. at-large spots probably will be the deciding factor in if he feels like we need to end/amend the ACC deal and if the answer is end it and then heavily influences the choice of where we go for there.
 
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TNUtoNotreDame

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Notre Dame needs to be ready for a future that doesn’t include the ACC. The conference is likely headed toward collapse and could soon become a patched-together, hollow version of itself. Even if the ACC hadn’t taken shots at us, we’d still be facing a point where change was unavoidable. Rip the bandaid off and getter done.
 

IrishinSyria

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I have a tough time believing someone with Pete’s background is this naive.

However I haven’t been impressed with our PR plan here. I can’t imagine MF loves it either. If it’s part of a greater plan of laying the ground work for a suit, sure. Again I would think Pete understands the optics of spending 48 hours whining publicly.

100%

The longer this goes on the less I understand the purpose of the media tour.

Do I like the things he said? For the most part. Do I like the way he said it? Absolutely. But do I understand what his goal was beyond explaining why we were all big sad? Not yet.

I hope, and I think I trust, that there’s a part two coming.
 

OrlaNDomer

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The more this guy talks the more I don't believe him. I could buy that he has Big 12 connections but his tweets in aggregate would suggest that he not only has a Big 12 connection but also a Big 10 connection and an ND connection who are all sharing things with him hour by hour. Its good to hear that what Lax is hearing is similar so maybe he's totally on the up and up though.

He's connected to West Virginia IIRC. I followed him closely back when UCF to Big12 rumors were happening.
 

The Backer

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This is where I'm at and I'm still crafting my thoughts. The SEC started with how many ranked teams preseason? 10 of 25?

Then ESPN has a "proprietary" mechanism of calculating SOR which was used aggressively this year. All SOR formulas are somewhat similar from what I've read. But SOR is a rather blunt tool in that it counts black/white wins or losses then applies the calculations based on how a typical team would perform...something...soemthing. How does a close, last second loss work? It's just a loss and most teams would lose against a good opponent so it counts as absolutely nothing.

So FSU decleating Bama by 14 pts and ND losing by 1 on the last play on a 4th and 11 are equivalent (if I understand the metric correctly). Surely a metric could exist that takes a weighted sum of the most accurate statistical models of the past 4 years + apply a more sophisticated metric of looking at game control/win-probability over the time of the game to give a score. This shows how competitive/dominant you are in every game with some caps to keep the highs and lows from destroying the aggregate. You shouldn't get excessive points so it doesn't matter if you put up 70 on Syracuse or 56 on an FCS (although this should be valued less than other FBS wins).

I don't know what are the mechanisms by which SOR quickly rise or fall. A few bad teams? A bunch of middling teams? How much movement for a single top 5 win vs top 15 vs top 25 vs top 50?

Without enough crossover play, the SEC gets to discuss it's superiority over everyone because it's what is promoted by ESPN around the clock. How does this get uncoupled and laid bare so we can see the accuracy of these claims? Numbers guys? This is a bat signal for someone to help my feeble mind.

It's terrible these metrics are black box. Alabama actually got a lot of SOR credit for the Auburn win, since Auburn was ranked 26.

When they talk about Miami's SOR/SOS, it's because they beat #3, #23, #33, #36, #37 and lost to #24, #29. That sounds really great until you realize those respective teams were ND, USF, FSU, Florida, Pitt, SMU, and Louisville.
 

NDWarrior

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The most under-covered story is that SEC was actually ass this year. The Big Ten had 3x teams better than all of their teams, and then ND/Texas Tech are also top tier. Georgia is very good. Everyone else is mediocre and really has no shot whatsoever to win a title and they got FIVE of them in because they only play 8 conference games which juices their records. Have Alabama play Texas, have Oklahoma play Vanderbilt, have Georgia play TAMU, and have Ole Miss play TAMU and see what their records are.

The ACC has/had similar problems with lack of cross play, but at least they play 9 games.

Right, and just being in the SEC (or B1G) conference, gives some kind of assumed greatness that if an SEC team (such at Ole Miss or TAMU) has gone 11-1 in the season, they must be really good football teams that survived the SEC gauntlet to make into a top CFP team. GTFOH!

That's why I'm saying that what SEC and B1G really provide member teams is that conference affiliation, benefit of the doubt, protection, and perceived "tough conference" status, certified by the CFP SC and ESPN. It's not about any CCGs which are now meaningless.
 
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Irish#1

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I'm good with it. I still feel like ND is the biggest brand in college football and all the backlash we are getting solidifies that feeling.
Remember last year when we saw a ton of support and positive stories about ND and MF after the run to the NCG? How quickly they can do an about face.
 
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Well, I agree that the ACC should think long-term in protecting and advancing the interests of its members. You seem to be asserting that the ACC has a pivotal long-term benefit by having a "partnership" with ND since it is that relationship that will save the conference. Okay, but I doubt that is the case. The prospects of the conference are tied to improvement in its football programs. That is it.
I do think that the ACC does get a substantial benefit from having us to play their football programs that they wouldn't have otherwise. Think about what would have happened if Miami hadn't played us and instead had a non-con against UCF or some other low-tier P4. They would have been 10-2 without any quality wins and losses to meh teams. That sounds an awful lot like Virginia, and before the CCG, Virginia was #17.

Very long way of saying that there's a legitimate argument that without the scheduling agreement with us, y'all would have gotten 0 teams within sniffing distance of the playoffs.
 

stlnd01

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I do think that the ACC does get a substantial benefit from having us to play their football programs that they wouldn't have otherwise. Think about what would have happened if Miami hadn't played us and instead had a non-con against UCF or some other low-tier P4. They would have been 10-2 without any quality wins and losses to meh teams. That sounds an awful lot like Virginia, and before the CCG, Virginia was #17.

Very long way of saying that there's a legitimate argument that without the scheduling agreement with us, y'all would have gotten 0 teams within sniffing distance of the playoffs.
To be fair, the ACC is something like 32-7 against us over the last decade or so. So most of these games, they lose. But yeah last year (when they ducked us) Miami played Ball State out of conference. If they do that again this year instead, it's us or BYU in the CFP.
 

stlnd01

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I wonder if we keep going with that future yearly Clemson agreement?
Why wouldn’t we? It is independent of our ACC deal.

I guess the conference could push Clemson to scrap it. But frankly the ACC needs Clemson more than the other way around, and if Clemson wants to keep playing us…
 
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