The case for an 8 Team Playoff

[Irish YJ]

You don't design a playoff system with the goal being "screw Bama." It should be about trying to crown the best team in the country national champion.

And no, what you're suggesting is absurd. Beating Clemson and then Bama on extra rest is difficult. Beating Ohio State, then Clemson, THEN Bama on normal rest is much more difficult. Bama having extra rest isn't worth an entire additional game against a top 10 team.

I'm not designing anything to screw Bama. I'm pointing out that playing another game doesn't always make it more difficult as you claim. It is simply not about statistical probability of 4vs8 when you leave out all the other common sense factors. All teams are not equal (which is what is implied).

I guarantee you a one loss Bama left out of a 4 team playoff wouldn't mind playing an extra game to get in. You're applying logic/conditions that most don't care about. In short, for ND, 8 teams is best. For every team not named Bama or Clemson the last 5 years, 8 teams is best. They'd rather have a shot at 8, then not in 4.

It's why you have only 29% of coaches still happy with 4. In the Senate, we'd call that a super-minority lol. That number has probably shrunk since 2014 i'd bet.

 

[wizards8507]

In short, for ND, 8 teams is best.

Not with six automatic qualifiers it's not. It's much, much worse. We'd be in the ACC within two years.

For every team not named Bama or Clemson the last 5 years, 8 teams is best. They'd rather have a shot at 8, then not in 4.

Who gives a shit what most teams WANT? You don't design a system to reward what good-but-not-great teams WANT, you design a system that gives the great teams what they deserve. I'm sure the Baltimore Orioles would love a system where four teams from every MLB division make the postseason, but who cares?

It's why you have only 29% of coaches still happy with 4. In the Senate, we'd call that a super-minority lol. That number has probably shrunk since 2014 i'd bet.

Too bad? If you want to be in, schedule good opponents and win all of your games. Pretty simple. The economics of this are pretty simple as well. The playoff games are the only postseason games that sell out. They come with huge pay days for the schools. Simple as that. Your poll results indicate greed, not competitive integrity.

 

[Irish YJ]

Not with six automatic qualifiers it's not. It's much, much worse. We'd be in the ACC within two years.

There will not be six. At most there will be 5 + 1 that's conditional on a non-P5 being ranked at least XX.

ND is still going to benefit with two/three spots lacking conference champs and potentially an undefeated non-P5.

Who gives a shit what most teams WANT? You don't design a system to reward what good-but-not-great teams WANT, you design a system that gives the great teams what they deserve. I'm sure the Baltimore Orioles would love a system where four teams from every MLB division make the postseason, but who cares?

I forgot this is all about what Wiz wants. Forget about what the schools, players, and coaches want. It's not like it's their sport lol.... Come on dude. You design a system that is as fair and as unbiased to all teams and conferences that are subject to that playoff.

Too bad? If you want to be in, schedule good opponents and win all of your games. Pretty simple. The economics of this are pretty simple as well. The playoff games are the only postseason games that sell out. They come with huge pay days for the schools. Simple as that. Your poll results indicate greed, not competitive integrity.

Or, if you are in the SEC, schedule as many FCS and cupcakes possible, never travel to the cold states, and always be the highest ranked in your loss category.

So BK doesn't have competitive integrity because he wants 8. Come on. For OSU and UGA this year, it's only about money? No OSU and UGA wants a shot.

Like it or not, money drives a lot. The company you work for drives an incredible amount of greed through out sports. How do you live with yourself lol. Money also drives ND to stay independent and keep it's NBC contract. ND joined the ACC in all other sports because of money. Bowls have always been about the money since TVs came on the scene. It's why we have 100 bowls. Shitty bowls never sold out even pre-BCS. If some money shifts upwards, why do you care? College football sold it's soul long ago. Staying at 4 saves no one's soul.

 

[OhioIrish31]

Though it will never happen...I'd like to see it go to (8) teams with no automatic qualifiers. Use the committee to pick 1-8. The last four-five weeks of the season would be insane with anticipation. But I believe the only way the conferences agree to going to (8) is if the conference champs get in. I also think that every team should have to play a minimum of (10) P5 games...no more cup cake week,

 

[wizards8507]

There will not be six. At most there will be 5 + 1 that's conditional on a non-P5 being ranked at least XX.

ND is still going to benefit with two/three spots lacking conference champs and potentially an undefeated non-P5.



I forgot this is all about what Wiz wants. Forget about what the schools, players, and coaches want. It's not like it's their sport lol.... Come on dude. You design a system that is as fair and as unbiased to all teams and conferences that are subject to that playoff.



Or, if you are in the SEC, schedule as many FCS and cupcakes possible, never travel to the cold states, and always be the highest ranked in your loss category.

So BK doesn't have competitive integrity because he wants 8. Come on. For OSU and UGA this year, it's only about money? No OSU and UGA wants a shot.

Like it or not, money drives a lot. The company you work for drives an incredible amount of greed through out sports. How do you live with yourself lol. Money also drives ND to stay independent and keep it's NBC contract. ND joined the ACC in all other sports because of money. Bowls have always been about the money since TVs came on the scene. It's why we have 100 bowls. Shitty bowls never sold out even pre-BCS. If some money shifts upwards, why do you care? College football sold it's soul long ago. Staying at 4 saves no one's soul.

"ND is independent because of money." Got it.

 

[Irish YJ]

Though it will never happen...I'd like to see it go to (8) teams with no automatic qualifiers. Use the committee to pick 1-8. The last four-five weeks of the season would be insane with anticipation. But I believe the only way the conferences agree to going to (8) is if the conference champs get in. I also think that every team should have to play a minimum of (10) P5 games...no more cup cake week,

More than anything, I just want to see the elimination of FCS, or at least limiting to one during the first week or two of the season. If you make all P5s play min 10 P5s, you're further hurting non-P5s a chance at getting in. And keep in mind, we not a P5... There's 64 P5s in the 5 conferences, and 66 non-P5s in the 6 conferences plus INDs.

If I weren't a ND fan, I'd say have a P5 championship, and a non-P5 championship. ND is the only non-P5 that really lives between both worlds. BYU kinda... 5 of their 12 games were P5. If P5s stopped scheduling us, we'd be screwed... And some might if they could only schedule one other non-P5

 

[Irish YJ]

"ND is independent because of money." Got it.

It's not how it started, but it's how it is....
If not, why did the non-FB sports join a conference? Not money? Is their independence not as important?

No comment about ESPN? They are likely the single biggest institution driving greed in sports. No?

No comment about BK and his desire for 8?

 

[wizards8507]

It's not how it started, but it's how it is....
If not, why did the non-FB sports join a conference? Not money? Is their independence not as important?

No comment about ESPN? They are likely the single biggest institution driving greed in sports. No?

No comment about BK and his desire for 8?

I brought up ESPN four days ago, post #96 in this thread. ESPN is pushing this and those of you who are usually the most anti-ESPN are bending over for them and asking for seconds.

 

[Irish YJ]

I brought up ESPN four days ago, post #96 in this thread. ESPN is pushing this and those of you who are usually the most anti-ESPN are bending over for them and asking for seconds.

Just because there is alignment/agreement between ESPN, fans, players, coaches, and schools, on a topic... doesn't mean we're bending over for anything..... It's simply what we prefer. And it sounds like it's the best for the majority... If ESPN and schools make more money, good for them. I don't care about the impact to the Kraft Heart Attack Bowl.

I think you should quit your job in protest lol... Make a statement Wiz. Don't sell your soul or put your integrity at risk!

#KeepShittyBowlsGreat

 

[Irishize]

I have zero confidence in ADs and xCoaches (on the CFP) with ties to other schools not being jackasses or conference homers.

Name Position Conference
Frank Beamer Former Virginia Tech Head Coach ACC
Paola Boivin Former The Arizona Republic Reporter None
Jeff Bower Former Southern Miss Head Coach C-USA
Joe Castiglione Oklahoma Athletic Director Big 12
Herb Deromedi Former Central Michigan Head Coach MAC
Ken Hatfield Former, Rice, Clemson, Air Force, Arkansas Head Coach None
Christopher Howard Robert Morris University President, Former Air Force RB None
Bobby Johnson Former Vanderbilt Head Coach, Former Clemson player None
Ronnie Lott NFL Hall of Fame DB, Former USC DB USC
Rob Mullens CFB Playoff Chairman, Oregon Atheltic Director Pac-12
Gene Smith Ohio State Athletic Director Big Ten
Todd Stansbury Georgia Tech Athletic Director ACC
Scott Stricklin Florida Athletic Director SEC

Probably worth pointing out that Gene Smith is a former ND player.

 

[Irish YJ]

Probably worth pointing out that Gene Smith is a former ND player.

Who do you think he would vote for if ND and OSU had similar resumes?

 

[Irishize]

I think some of that is ND fans just being more alert to it being brought up. Not saying it doesn't happen, but I rarely hear it. I've actually heard about OSU getting run out of the stadium by Clemson during the past two playoff selection cycles. Honestly, I just don't see 2012 as being relevant today and I don't think many people who count think of it as being relevant either. You guys didn't fail to show up that night. You just ran into a team that wasn't going to lose to anyone this side of the NFL that particular night. I don't think many serious football fans or experts are still holding that game against you.

I don’t know how close you follow CFB writers on Twitter but anytime ND is brought up in the Playoff conversation, fans don’t hesistate to go directly to a game six years ago. And I’m not talking about the writers...they just bring up the topic of ND being one of the bsest teams and you see the Pavlovian response. Most of my SEC buddies rarely watch football outside the SEC unless it’s a marquee game involving a contender like Clemson, tOSU, UM, OU, etc.

 

[Irishize]

Who do you think he would vote for if ND and OSU had similar resumes?

Doesn’t he have to recuse himself on all things related to tOSU & maybe even ND?

EDIT: Looks like he does: https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...ayoff-selection-committee-recusal-policy-2016

 

[Irish YJ]

Doesn’t he have to recuse himself on all things related to tOSU & maybe even ND?

EDIT: Looks like he does: https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...ayoff-selection-committee-recusal-policy-2016

Probably just OSU. I'd bet though that there's some horse trading going on...It probably should be any school past or present, and the current conference.

 

[irishtrain]

I don’t know how close you follow CFB writers on Twitter but anytime ND is brought up in the Playoff conversation, fans don’t hesistate to go directly to a game six years ago. And I’m not talking about the writers...they just bring up the topic of ND being one of the bsest teams and you see the Pavlovian response. Most of my SEC buddies rarely watch football outside the SEC unless it’s a marquee game involving a contender like Clemson, tOSU, UM, OU, etc.

Don't get me started on the sec save that for another day but I will cast my vote for 6 teams-7/8 teams are not competitive enough for me on a yearly basis

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

I'd like to see it go to 8 teams with 5 spots saved for the power 5 but no automatic qualifiers.

I know that keeps it open for conferences to put two teams in (SEC) but this would hopefully drive conferences to play one another so we can rank them accordingly.

 

[stlnd01]

Until last month I believed that a good one-loss ND team could make a four-team playoff. The way the end of this year shook out convinced me otherwise. Say we lost close to Pittsburgh instead of winning, I've no doubt we would have finished sixth. Maybe 7th if they put UCF ahead of us out of spite.
That's about the only reason I'm coming around to support an eight-team playoff.

An eight-team playoff with automatic bids for conference champs (which is what it will be) will place all the emphasis on winning conference titles. Especially if they keep the conference title games as-is (which I'd bet they will because $$)

It will devalue the regular season, disincentivize playing tough non-conference games and basically make everything about winning your division and going to your conference title game, which will serve as a play-in to the eight-game show. We'll effectively have a 16-game playoff for P5 conference members with three spots for the best of the also-rans. It won't be far from college basketball where, for the good teams, the regular season is largely a tune-up for the tournament.

The only upside I see is that Notre Dame can lose a game and still be in the hunt.

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

Until last month I believed that a good one-loss ND team could make a four-team playoff. The way the end of this year shook out convinced me otherwise. Say we lost close to Pittsburgh instead of winning, I've no doubt we would have finished sixth. Maybe 7th if they put UCF ahead of us out of spite.
That's about the only reason I'm coming around to support an eight-team playoff.

An eight-team playoff with automatic bids for conference champs (which is what it will be) will place all the emphasis on winning conference titles. Especially if they keep the conference title games as-is (which I'd bet they will because $$)

It will devalue the regular season, disincentivize playing tough non-conference games and basically make everything about winning your division and going to your conference title game, which will serve as a play-in to the eight-game show. We'll effectively have a 16-game playoff for P5 conference members with three spots for the best of the also-rans. It won't be far from college basketball where, for the good teams, the regular season is largely a tune-up for the tournament.

The only upside I see is that Notre Dame can lose a game and still be in the hunt.

It won't take long for this system to come under scrutiny. Imagine the PAC-12 champ this year getting an automatic bid. 2-loss conference champions likely shouldn't get in at the end of the year (unless everyone has a similar schedule). They still need to take the top 8 with 5 automatic P5 slots. The remaining 3 should go to best available teams.

Having 5 automatic p5 slots isn't saying much since we'll often have 6+ P5 teams in the playoffs. I

 

[NDRock]

It won't take long for this system to come under scrutiny. Imagine the PAC-12 champ this year getting an automatic bid. 2-loss conference champions likely shouldn't get in at the end of the year (unless everyone has a similar schedule). They still need to take the top 8 with 5 automatic P5 slots. The remaining 3 should go to best available teams.

Having 5 automatic p5 slots isn't saying much since we'll often have 6+ P5 teams in the playoffs. I

Washington was ranked #9 in the final playoff rankings. That's the worst Power 5 conference champion since the playoff started. This happens in every sport where there is a playoff and automatic bids. At least you know the stakes going in and have to earn it on the field, not sit around and wait for a committee to find you attractive enough.

 

[IrishLion]

I brought up ESPN four days ago, post #96 in this thread. ESPN is pushing this and those of you who are usually the most anti-ESPN are bending over for them and asking for seconds.

I like an 8-team playoff, because whether or not there are auto-bids for conferences, ND is basically guaranteed to be in at 11-1, and will have a decent argument at 10-2 most years.

People will say that's taking the easy way out, or devaluing the regular season, but I'm of the belief that ND's schedule is good enough most years that 11-1 or 10-2 might mean they're capable of beating anyone, and an 8-team playoff provides more opportunities for ND to prove it.

You can say they should state their argument in 12 games, and if they didn't, then they don't deserve a shot, but I would say that ND is tested to greater extremes in most years than some of the top teams because of the way they schedule and travel. An 8-team playoff helps mitigate that difference, and provides ND more opportunities to match up with the "best." If the schedule comparisons won't be even, then let's just see head-to-head games with the top 8, and really start building a catalog of concrete results.

If the SEC qualifies three teams every year, and all three of those teams are consistently winning their games, then I'll shut my mouth up about their bullshit scheduling tactics. But until then, I like more opportunities to see the top teams tested against one another when everything is on the line.

And ESPN sucks balls.

 

[stlnd01]

It won't take long for this system to come under scrutiny. Imagine the PAC-12 champ this year getting an automatic bid. 2-loss conference champions likely shouldn't get in at the end of the year (unless everyone has a similar schedule). They still need to take the top 8 with 5 automatic P5 slots. The remaining 3 should go to best available teams.

Having 5 automatic p5 slots isn't saying much since we'll often have 6+ P5 teams in the playoffs. I

It may "come under scrutiny," but the power five conferences are extremely influential players in all this. We're having this conversation right now because two of them got shut out of the playoffs this year, and one of them has been shut out repeatedly. Can you imagine the outrage if the Pac-12 champ was left out of an eight-team playoff for a third SEC team?

Also, say what you will about the relative strengths of the conferences, but a conference title is still something you have to win on the field, as opposed to the beauty contest of the current setup. The risk, of course, is that an undeserving team pulls a big upset in the conference title game (had Pitt beat Clemson this year, for instance). But that's a risk they'll take, and figure a team like Clemson gets an at-large bid in that scenario.

Auto-bids for conference champs are the path of least resistance here, politically speaking.

 

[stlnd01]

It won't take long for this system to come under scrutiny. Imagine the PAC-12 champ this year getting an automatic bid. 2-loss conference champions likely shouldn't get in at the end of the year (unless everyone has a similar schedule). They still need to take the top 8 with 5 automatic P5 slots. The remaining 3 should go to best available teams.

Having 5 automatic p5 slots isn't saying much since we'll often have 6+ P5 teams in the playoffs. I

An eight-team playoff this year would have included two two-loss teams that DIDN'T win their conference, in Michigan and Georgia.

 

[IrishLax]

An eight-team playoff this year would have included two two-loss teams that DIDN'T win their conference, in Michigan and Georgia.

No, not necessarily. Reasonably speaking, most people think an 8 team field this year done by a system that would be approved for the playoff expansion would've included UCF and Washington over Michigan. It's an extremely hard case to make that Georgia with 11 wins and an elite SOS doesn't deserve to be in an 8 team field.

The bottom line is you either want ND to have a shot at a title with a loss or not. If you do, you want an 8 team playoff. If you don't, then we'd be better off going back to BCS. Four teams where a group of a dozen people pick based on subjective criteria is the worst possible system you could conceive of.

 

[Ndaccountant]

For the last 30 years or so, CFB has changed quite a bit and the main focus has been $$$. Conference CG's, conference expansion, bowl game proliferation, etc was all about chasing the money. The system we have today was set up to maximize profit first, crown a champ second.

Example, let's compare the previous BCS system payout for each conference versus the last three year average.

ACC - $34M vs $79M
B10 - $34M vs $108M
B12 - $34M vs $84M
P12 - $28M vs $85M
SEC - $34M vs $89M
G5 - $13M vs $85M

The money comes from inclusion, so you know where expansion will lead. The payouts will only increase and everyone will want their slice. The set up would be tilted heavily to the P5 conferences, making me question if ND's chances would appreciably improve (I have strong doubts). Honestly, I think if you value ND's independence, you would be against expansion. I would be willing to wager that any expansion would push ND out of the top ten in revenue generation. We know those other schools will spend, so ND would now be fighting an even bigger uphill battle (money + admissions). The only way to maintain top line competitiveness would be to join a conference.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kristi...ference-by-conference-breakdown/#6f0ce9c52938

 

[Bishop2b5]

It may "come under scrutiny," but the power five conferences are extremely influential players in all this. We're having this conversation right now because two of them got shut out of the playoffs this year, and one of them has been shut out repeatedly. Can you imagine the outrage if the Pac-12 champ was left out of an eight-team playoff for a third SEC team?

The PAC12 should start playing better football if they want in, not hope the playoffs get expanded so they can get a participation trophy entrant. Their best team lost to Auburn, who isn't even one of the SEC's best 6 teams. I'm 100% against expanding just to make sure we have someone from every conference. I don't care if all four teams are from the same conference. Put the 4 best teams or the 8 best in. Just don't give participation trophies to shitty teams from shitty conferences who play shitty football.

 

[GowerND11]

I think the FCS problem is easy to solve. Go back to the way it was before some teams complained that it wasn't fair (FSU was a big one). You can schedule one FCS game every 4 years. This still allows FCS teams to make money, while forcing, especially P5, FBS teams to make actual schedules. With ~130 FBS schools, it isn't that hard to make a 12 game schedule.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

No, not necessarily. Reasonably speaking, most people think an 8 team field this year done by a system that would be approved for the playoff expansion would've included UCF and Washington over Michigan. It's an extremely hard case to make that Georgia with 11 wins and an elite SOS doesn't deserve to be in an 8 team field.

The bottom line is you either want ND to have a shot at a title with a loss or not. If you do, you want an 8 team playoff. If you don't, then we'd be better off going back to BCS. Four teams where a group of a dozen people pick based on subjective criteria is the worst possible system you could conceive of.

Do you think they have made bad picks? I am skeptical that objectively unfair criteria (putting in P5 conference champs) is more just simply because we've eliminated subjectivity.

 

[NDRock]

The PAC12 should start playing better football if they want in, not hope the playoffs get expanded so they can get a participation trophy entrant. Their best team lost to Auburn, who isn't even one of the SEC's best 6 teams. I'm 100% against expanding just to make sure we have someone from every conference. I don't care if all four teams are from the same conference. Put the 4 best teams or the 8 best in. Just don't give participation trophies to shitty teams from shitty conferences who play shitty football.

Did the SEC do that to the East division during the years their shitty teams were playing shitty football? A little short sided with this post, don’t you think?

 

[Bishop2b5]

Did the SEC do that to the East division during the years their shitty teams were playing shitty football? A little short sided with this post, don’t you think?

Yeah, they did. That's why the East started bringing in better coaches like Mullen, Pruitt, and Smart. No, they couldn't leave the East out of the CCG, but they sure didn't say, "Aww, it's OK. We'll spot your team 14 points or give you some sort of advantage so you can be competitive." They had to start playing better football.

 

[NDRock]

Yeah, they did. That's why the East started bringing in better coaches like Mullen, Pruitt, and Smart. No, they couldn't leave the East out of the CCG, but they sure didn't say, "Aww, it's OK. We'll spot your team 14 points or give you some sort of advantage so you can be competitive." They had to start playing better football.

2010 - 3, 4
2011 - 4, 6, 7
2012 - 2, 7
2013 - 9
2014 - 2, 10
2015 - 3
2016 - 3
2017 - 12

Final AP rankings for top PAC-12 teams since 2010.