Sept 21 | Georgia

[Irishize]

This. I think it's possible ND wins. But I think it's more likely that ND loses by 4+ TDs than that they win. This has more "bloodbath" potential than any game in recent memory.

But God forbid that you go with facts as they appear in what’s been evidenced in the first 3 weeks of the season. You must ALWAYS give the opinion that ND will win or you’re not a real fan. It’s like talking to Little League parents.

Can ND win? Sure but the rational bet is a comfortable UGA win. Look at all the upsets & unexpected blowouts we’ve seen this year. Of course it can happen but looking rationally at each position group, the performances of each team vs subpar competition & ND’s recent history as double-digit underdogs, it’s not anathema to say the trends point towards a loss. And a blowout loss knocks ND out of the CFP picture.

So whether you’re Pollyanna or Negative Nancy, we can all agree that we’ll be rooting for ND to win and if the scoreboard doesn’t reflect our wish, then something similar to the 2017 outcome will be respectable enough to keep ND in the conversation should they run the table.

 

[Irishize]

This is exactly where I'm at. I think any objective view would show that ND is in serious trouble. There's about zero match ups in this game that I feel like ND has any advantage at all.

I think ND has the better coaching staff from top to bottom.

UGA’s defense is not as impressive as the one they brought to South Bend in 2017 IMO. There’s no way their current LB corps can be as good as that one. Connelly has UGA w/ the #7 D in the nation so they’ve done what they’re supposed to do vs inferior talent. This game will be won in the trenches.

I re-watched the NM game and noticed the blocking is not horrible...just inconsistent. Brock Wright whiffed on a block on the end-zone 3rd & goal. On a stretch play, ND had both guards pull and neither were able to get in the way of the LB who made a TFL Kraemer lacked the athleticism on that play to pivot back towards the LB and Banks was the trailing guard so it likely wasn’t his responsibility. Kraemer has to remember why he was benched early last season & then bring his game back up to where it was when he earned his spot back....footwork. On some of the other 3rd & shorts, I believe it was simply a poor read by the QB or the RB. It’s like they ran right into the pile instead of finding a crevice to squeeze through or in the case of TJJ on one play...bouncing it outside for an easy first down pick up.

I wouldn’t expect the perimeter plays that led to big gains vs NM to do much vs UGA other than a change of pace to keep them honest in their pursuit. Like BK said, they’ve got to run the ball & stop the run. Do that effectively and it’s anybody’s ball game. Be one-dimensional & it’s a blowout.

 

[Irishize]

Since we hired Elko/Lea when is the last time our defense actually cost us a game? None that I can recall. We haven't even had wins where the O needed to bail the D out. I know we lost a lot on defense from last year but I have faith in the defensive staff to put together an strong game plan. This game will come down to whether the offense can move the ball effectively or not.

Good point. The scheme has been effective since day one. The only times the score got out of hand was when a starter went down & their replacement couldn’t hold his own or the offense imploded to the point that the D never had a chance.

 

[ndbroski]

Good point. The scheme has been effective since day one. The only times the score got out of hand was when a starter went down & their replacement couldn’t hold his own or the offense imploded to the point that the D never had a chance.

Or in games like Miami '17 or Stanford '17 where turnovers put the defense in spots where they had no chance.

 

[irishtrooper]

Ok, some of us are saying that those of us that think there’s a legitimate chance are unrealistic. I’m one who thinks we’ll play well and it’ll be a close game (hopefully a win). One of the afflictions that run rampant through our fan base is that we tend to focus on negativity and when things went bad than we do on the things going well. I’m basing my optimism on the fact that we did play this team just the season before last and probably should have won...
Before I get all the inevitable push back I will stipulate that-
Fromm is better now than then
Their O line is better now
We were at home then (should not account for 4 td spread most are assuming)
They played Bama tough at the end of the season last year
Swift is really good

But-
We (in my view) outplayed them with a lesser QB (Wimbush) and easily could have won
Their defense is good, but nowhere as talented as then- the rush then was insane
Yes our O line isn’t as good, but I believe our coaching is now better with play calling
The aren’t as good at WR now either. They have talent as always but pretty green
Swift is awesome, but I would rather have both Chubb and Michel

There are more reasons that I’m optimistic about the game. I’m not foolish enough to believe we go and dominate them, but I find it troubling that those who like our chances are put in a category of being unrealistic or overly fanatical with no attachment to the facts. The facts are these- They BARELY escaped here (at night) with a win just the season before last. Not ten years ago, 2017. They have a good QB, but we have a great DC who has two years of film now. I get that we crapped our pants in 17 against Miami, but I think we can agree that was an aberration and not indicative of the strength of those teams. I think their home field is worth something, but not 4-5 touchdowns.

At the end of the day, I hope all of you fans that seem sure that we’ll get creamed are wrong. I’m nervous about this game, but not scared. This game will be a narrative setting game for a while, so we better play well.

 

[greyhammer90]

It seems like most of the optimistic posts are completely ignoring the fact that this game is being played in Athens at night after Gameday, etc...

Think about the atmosphere the night we got beat at Miami and multiply the talent of our opponent by 10.

I went to UGA. Athens is amazing, and the stadium will be rocking, but the crowd is quite a long way from the field. The stadium is basically set up so that from the inside to the outside it goes: field - fairly broad sideline - hedges - a track running around the field that is full of event staff running around - crowd. There's also an endzone that lacks an upper section that a lot of volume escapes through. It's not the Swamp or Neyland in terms of fear factor and volume. I've been to each of these stadiums for rivalry games and never saw anything at Georgia that I would consider extraordinary in terms of volume or insanity.

Now, the Miami stadium isn't usually extraordinary either, but I don't expect Sanford to be that full of hatred and I don't expect our guys to be dodging glass bottles on the way into the stadium.

I expect the crowd to be a normal night game factor, but I think you guys sometimes give southern crowds too much credit. They're not freaking werewolves. They'll be loud and drunk, just like they usually are at Michigan State. The problem is that the team we'll be playing is really good, more than that the crowd is scary and the sun is down.

 

[gkIrish]

I went to UGA. Athens is amazing, and the stadium will be rocking, but the crowd is quite a long way from the field. The stadium is basically set up so that from the inside to the outside it goes: field - fairly broad sideline - hedges - a track running around the field that is full of event staff running around - crowd. There's also an endzone that lacks an upper section that a lot of volume escapes through. It's not the Swamp or Neyland in terms of fear factor and volume. I've been to each of these stadiums for rivalry games and never saw anything at Georgia that I would consider extraordinary in terms of volume or insanity.

Now, the Miami stadium isn't usually extraordinary either, but I don't expect Sanford to be that full of hatred and I don't expect our guys to be dodging glass bottles on the way into the stadium.

I expect the crowd to be a normal night game factor, but I think you guys sometimes give southern crowds too much credit. They're not freaking werewolves. They'll be loud and drunk, just like they usually are at Michigan State. The problem is that the team we'll be playing is really good, more than that the crowd is scary and the sun is down.

I'm not trying to say Athens is one of the top hostile environments or anything--it's not. But night games after Gameday tend to be the most rowdy because people are the drunkest they will ever get for a game.

The loudest ND games are at night for the same reason and we don't have a hostile environment either.

It's a huge factor, even if its not Death Valley.

 

[Luckylucci]

Without Jafar in the lineup I think we're going to need to use the passing game as an extension of the run game. I'd like to see more flexed out TE's or 4/5 WR sets. Really spread them out. I think it's a tough cover to ask any defense to cover our top 4-5 pass catchers (Kmet included, hopefully), provided Book is making good decisions with anticipation.

On defense, I think you do everything you can to stop the run and get into the Nickel/Dime package. If there is one spot for this defense to take advantage, it's getting to this group of players. Hayes, Hamilton, Crawford, etc. all together.

 

[greyhammer90]

I'm not trying to say Athens is one of the top hostile environments or anything--it's not. But night games after Gameday tend to be the most rowdy because people are the drunkest they will ever get for a game.

The loudest ND games are at night for the same reason and we don't have a hostile environment either.

It's a huge factor, even if its not Death Valley.

I agree that it's a factor, and I wasn't necessarily speaking to only you, I just think people are overselling Sanford by quite a bit.

I think another thing that will likely help with the crowd is the outrageous ticket prices. I'm not saying it will be a corporate atmosphere or anything, but the people who are going to be there are largely going to be people who can afford to be there. (There will be plenty of Jim Bob's with G tatoos there too, but not as many as if this was a $300 game.)

 

[gkIrish]

I agree that it's a factor, and I wasn't necessarily speaking to only you, I just think people are overselling Sanford by quite a bit.

I think another thing that will likely help with the crowd is the outrageous ticket prices. I'm not saying it will be a corporate atmosphere or anything, but the people who are going to be there are largely going to be people who can afford to be there. (There will be plenty of Jim Bob's with G tatoos there too, but not as many as if this was a $300 game.)

Isn't it just the secondary market that's got crazy pricing? I'm sure there are plenty of season ticket holders and obviously tons of students. What was the face value?

 

[greyhammer90]

Isn't it just the secondary market that's got crazy pricing? I'm sure there are plenty of season ticket holders and obviously tons of students. What was the face value?

It's just the secondary market, but that's still the majority of the tickets. Season ticket holders will be mostly middle-class to upper-middle class alumni and t-shirt alumni. They'll be loud. Student sections are a given and are always loud. But, UGA puts a lot of their student section in the endzone with the missing upper deck. It's still going to be a loud environment, but like you said it's not like going into Death Valley. As I said above, I imagine the atmosphere is going to be something like a night game at MSU during the years where the crowd has some extra juice because Dantonio has stretched something small into an insult for the disrespekt factor.

 

[Irish#1]

Gonna be a real fun week around here debating whether we'll lose by 24 or by 48.

FIFY

ND lost by 1 pt to GA two years ago. That was the closest game GA had all year.

GA is not Bama. It is not Clemson. Im not sure they could beat LSU this year. The same LSU that ND beat the last two bowl games their played against. We wont know because GA plays such a piss poor weak schedule all year long until they fall into the SEC Championship game because there is no one else in the East. Anyone who thinks FL and Auburn is the #9 and #8 teams in the country need their head examined. Look at the schedule.

Im not saying GA wont win. Sadly, I think ND thinks GA will win.

The team or the fans?

FL looked bad against Kentucky.

It seems like most of the optimistic posts are completely ignoring the fact that this game is being played in Athens at night after Gameday, etc...

Think about the atmosphere the night we got beat at Miami and multiply the talent of our opponent by 10.

It seems like most of the pessimistic posts are completely ignoring the fact that that was a couple of years ago and that ND went ino VT last year and dominated VT in front of what was supposed to the most raucous crowd with a special intro by Metallica.

After the Miami game BK said they didn't prepare for the crowd and they were changing the way they prepped for road games. The VT game is proof they will be ready.

I get UGA has more talent top to bottom and this is a road game, but the talent on the ND side of the ball isn't that bad. UGA beat us by 1 with Wimbush playing QB. Our QB is better now. This will be a tight game and I won't be surprised if either team wins.

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

The problem is that the negatives, e.g. run defense and inconsistent ILBs, play right into the hands of Georgia.

Georgia is better than ND at every position on offense and it’s not really close except maybe pass catchers. Georgia’s defense and Notre Dame’s defense are pretty close... except for one poor position group that is apt to get exposed next weekend. Can Notre Dame win? Sure. But on paper Georgia should win going away. This is more of a talent imbalance than the Clemson game last year because ND is not bringing in a top 5 defense with no holes.

It's not close? With our #1 RB down, I agree their RBs are clearly better.

UGA RB >> ND RB

The QBs aren't miles apart, even if Book isn't a projected first round pick, he can be a very efficient QB and he's mobile. I don't think it's a monster talent gap like you portray.

UGA QB > ND QB

I'd take our TEs over Georgia, we have one top flight TE, one really good pass catching TE and one really good blocking TE.

ND TE > UGA TE

UGA OL > ND OL, sure

ND WR > UGA WR in proven production. Georgia is athletic but that doesn't equate production.

Defenses are harder to rate but I'm guessing our 1st and 2nd team DEs at least stack up to what they have and are potentially better.

No idea on LBs. DTs - I have to assume they have better interior DL but we have some talent.

I'll be shocked if their secondary is better than ours. I know our safeties will have to play their A game but we are very good.

 

[greyhammer90]

Speaking of UGA's WRs, are they getting back Robertson and that other guy that went down last week? Not having two potentially starting WRs could help our odds tremendously.

 

[T Town Tommy]

I don't care what sticker is on the side of the helmet. But this I know. If you are going in to a top 5 team's backyard to play them, you HAVE to run the football and you have to have great to elite QB play to have a chance. How you get there is what's important. I would spread them out to start the game and hope Book can make enough throws to keep them honest. Then try to use the gaps created to run the ball when you can. The offensive play calling at that point has to be adjusted as Kirby and crew will adjust to that. If you see ND in 2nd and long too much midway through the second quarter, then the adjustments are coming too late.

On defense, the Irish have to stop the run. Sell out and hope the less experienced Ga WR's can't create enough space one on one to make enough plays. Fromm isn't elite, but he's pretty good. If he gets in a groove, he's good enough to make you pay again and again.

There is a path to victory for the Irish, but it's a small path. Try to keep it close, hope Kirby reverts back to sandbagging his offensive playcalling a bit - he does that in bigger games in which he is leading - and then steal a few possessions with a turnover or two and that path gets a little wider for the Irish. it's a tall order but not impossible.

 

[ACamp1900]

If you are going in to a top 5 team's backyard to play them, you HAVE to run the football and you have to have great to elite QB play,...

 

[PANDFAN]

db's are going to be on an island with selling out to the run...which is fine, but holy $hit we need to stop with the dang awful PI calls...also IDC how vaughn played in the fall camp, he shouldn't play..period! he's been nothing but a liability or PI call each and every time he has played. he looks no different hurt or not hurt.

jones jr better show me something early otherwise, i sure as hell hope smith's toe is feeling better because jones looked like jones of old last game....i can't take him pu$$y footing around much longer, hit the damn hole and that's what smith does

 

[calvegas04]

db's are going to be on an island with selling out to the run...which is fine, but holy $hit we need to stop with the dang awful PI calls...also IDC how vaughn played in the fall camp, he shouldn't play..period! he's been nothing but a liability or PI call each and every time he has played. he looks no different hurt or not hurt.

jones jr better show me something early otherwise, i sure as hell hope smith's toe is feeling better because jones looked like jones of old last game....i can't take him pu$$y footing around much longer, hit the damn hole and that's what smith does

Some of those weak PI calls shouldn't be called this weekend as both sides will be very physical I think

 

[gkIrish]

It seems like most of the pessimistic posts are completely ignoring the fact that that was a couple of years ago and that ND went ino VT last year and dominated VT in front of what was supposed to the most raucous crowd with a special intro by Metallica.

After the Miami game BK said they didn't prepare for the crowd and they were changing the way they prepped for road games. The VT game is proof they will be ready.

I get UGA has more talent top to bottom and this is a road game, but the talent on the ND side of the ball isn't that bad. UGA beat us by 1 with Wimbush playing QB. Our QB is better now. This will be a tight game and I won't be surprised if either team wins.

You are considering a road win against a 6-7 team as "proof" that ND is capable of winning at UG. At the time, we all thought VA Tech was legit because they beat a fraudulent FSU team a few weeks before. That V Tech game was about as good of a win as the Temple win.

Our QB is better now, sure, but isn't their QB better now too? Wasn't that Fromm's first start? I'm pretty sure he is a much better QB now.

 

[Irishize]

Or in games like Miami '17 or Stanford '17 where turnovers put the defense in spots where they had no chance.

Yes, those two games are what I was referring to when I referenced the offense imploded.

 

[Sherm Sticky]

db's are going to be on an island with selling out to the run...which is fine, but holy $hit we need to stop with the dang awful PI calls...also IDC how vaughn played in the fall camp, he shouldn't play..period! he's been nothing but a liability or PI call each and every time he has played. he looks no different hurt or not hurt.

jones jr better show me something early otherwise, i sure as hell hope smith's toe is feeling better because jones looked like jones of old last game....i can't take him pu$$y footing around much longer, hit the damn hole and that's what smith does

I don't think Vaughn sees the field unless the game is out of hand. I think the coaching staff played Vaughn a lot this past weekend to see what he can do in live action and he failed. yiou are going to see Pride, Crawford and Bracy when Crawford moves inside.

 

[Irishize]

Ok, some of us are saying that those of us that think there’s a legitimate chance are unrealistic. I’m one who thinks we’ll play well and it’ll be a close game (hopefully a win). One of the afflictions that run rampant through our fan base is that we tend to focus on negativity and when things went bad than we do on the things going well. I’m basing my optimism on the fact that we did play this team just the season before last and probably should have won...
Before I get all the inevitable push back I will stipulate that-
Fromm is better now than then
Their O line is better now
We were at home then (should not account for 4 td spread most are assuming)
They played Bama tough at the end of the season last year
Swift is really good

But-
We (in my view) outplayed them with a lesser QB (Wimbush) and easily could have won
Their defense is good, but nowhere as talented as then- the rush then was insane
Yes our O line isn’t as good, but I believe our coaching is now better with play calling
The aren’t as good at WR now either. They have talent as always but pretty green
Swift is awesome, but I would rather have both Chubb and Michel

There are more reasons that I’m optimistic about the game. I’m not foolish enough to believe we go and dominate them, but I find it troubling that those who like our chances are put in a category of being unrealistic or overly fanatical with no attachment to the facts. The facts are these- They BARELY escaped here (at night) with a win just the season before last. Not ten years ago, 2017. They have a good QB, but we have a great DC who has two years of film now. I get that we crapped our pants in 17 against Miami, but I think we can agree that was an aberration and not indicative of the strength of those teams. I think their home field is worth something, but not 4-5 touchdowns.

At the end of the day, I hope all of you fans that seem sure that we’ll get creamed are wrong. I’m nervous about this game, but not scared. This game will be a narrative setting game for a while, so we better play well.

That’s a fair post & your final statement is 100% correct.

 

[Sherm Sticky]

You are considering a road win against a 6-7 team as "proof" that ND is capable of winning at UG. At the time, we all thought VA Tech was legit because they beat a fraudulent FSU team a few weeks before. That V Tech game was about as good of a win as the Temple win.

Our QB is better now, sure, but isn't their QB better now too? Wasn't that Fromm's first start? I'm pretty sure he is a much better QB now.

I agree with everything you are saying. but, I would also point out that there is a lot of tape on Fromm now, as opposed to none last time the teams met.

 

[koonja]

I'm actually OK with the PI's to date.

It means we're right on the WR, which I'll take vs. giving up separate like we did from 2000-2011.

 

[IrishFanJMercy]

Sell out for the run and make Fromm Throw make sure Hamilton is in at all times he is bound to have two INT.

 

[Sherm Sticky]

Have they moved the Kelly's press conference from Tuesday to Monday all season?

 

[SoIll]

I don't think Vaughn sees the field unless the game is out of hand. I think the coaching staff played Vaughn a lot this past weekend to see what he can do in live action and he failed. yiou are going to see Pride, Crawford and Bracy when Crawford moves inside.

I noticed Griffith didnt get in til like the fourth on Saturday.. He hasn't played much all year. Did I miss something?

 

[RDU Irish]

Book needs to open up the run by using the whole field early and the defense needs to slow the run down enough that they get in to 3rd and long with some regularity. Defense can give up some yards but needs to stuff them enough to stall out drives and force passing. I have a hard time believing we won't run straight in to a loaded box to start the game with a couple of 3&outs. Only saving grace is UGA is highly likely to do the same thing.

We really need to win this game for the good of all college football. The SEC is insufferable and we can come close to hamstringing damn near the entire conference with a win.

 

[Sherm Sticky]

I noticed Griffith didnt get in til like the fourth on Saturday.. He hasn't played much all year. Did I miss something?

Don't take my word, I'm just guessing. But, Bracy is the first CB in. I think they wanted to give Vaughn a shot and it hasn't gone well. Houston is probably the 4th CB in...

 

[Irishize]

Book needs to open up the run by using the whole field early and the defense needs to slow the run down enough that they get in to 3rd and long with some regularity. Defense can give up some yards but needs to stuff them enough to stall out drives and force passing. I have a hard time believing we won't run straight in to a loaded box to start the game with a couple of 3&outs. Only saving grace is UGA is highly likely to do the same thing.

We really need to win this game for the good of all college football. The SEC is insufferable and we can come close to hamstringing damn near the entire conference with a win.

Agreed about the SEC...there’s already folks in the media asking if the SEC can get three teams in the CFP.