Sept 2 | Louisville

[EvilleIrish]

Wasn’t that the year we also had some delay of game and at least one was after a timeout?

You might be thinking of the start we had at MSU in 2012.

 

[wizards8507]

So today is the first day I've decided to pay attention to football since the Super Bowl... How we looking this year? Schedule appears to be insane.

 

[IrishLion]

So today is the first day I've decided to pay attention to football since the Super Bowl... How we looking this year? Schedule appears to be insane.

A good QB with two reliable receivers = We're gonna throw the ball

Unproven but versatile RB's and an OL that should be a bit better = We might run the ball, but maybe we just find different ways to throw it more

Elite DE's and Safeties = Defense is going to feast if the offense can get us a lead

Unproven DT's and LB's = We might have trouble stopping the run against elite teams


Projection: o/u 9.5 wins, factoring for a brutal road schedule
- Under if the running game never materializes and the run defense struggles
- Over if the OL takes a big step and the run defense materializes under Clark Lea

I'm taking the over at 10-2. In Clark Lea I trust.

 

[NorthDakota]

I'm thinking 10-2 as well.

I think we beat Michigan, Stanford, SC. I think we drop one we shouldn't and probably lose to UGA as well.

IF we beat UGA, drop a game to someone we shouldnt, and they win the SEC, that could be interesting to see how the committee views that situation.

 

[ulukinatme]

So today is the first day I've decided to pay attention to football since the Super Bowl... How we looking this year? Schedule appears to be insane.

 

[ulukinatme]

I'm thinking 10-2 as well.

I think we beat Michigan, Stanford, SC. I think we drop one we shouldn't and probably lose to UGA as well.

IF we beat UGA, drop a game to someone we shouldnt, and they win the SEC, that could be interesting to see how the committee views that situation.

I think we'd get tOSU'd, ala the Purdue game that sunk their ship last season. Finishing the season strong did nothing for them after that. Best chance to get in with 1 loss is a close loss to a very good Georgia team and hope that the 4th Conference Champion is 2+ losses.

 

[NDohio]

Time to get back dialed into IE. Hope everyone's off season went well.

Super excited about getting to watch Notre Dame football again for the next few months.

Go Irish!

 

[snoopdog]

A good QB with two reliable receivers = We're gonna throw the ball

Unproven but versatile RB's and an OL that should be a bit better = We might run the ball, but maybe we just find different ways to throw it more

Elite DE's and Safeties = Defense is going to feast if the offense can get us a lead

Unproven DT's and LB's = We might have trouble stopping the run against elite teams


Projection: o/u 9.5 wins, factoring for a brutal road schedule
- Under if the running game never materializes and the run defense struggles
- Over if the OL takes a big step and the run defense materializes under Clark Lea

I'm taking the over at 10-2. In Clark Lea I trust.

Losing Tillery hurts....BUT

A year more experience with Hinish and Ademilola
Getting both MTA and Franklin back
AND adding Super Frosh Lacey to the mix

Overall I say 2019 will be much better overall. Especially when you consider the attention the opposition will have to pay to the DE's AND when Kareen or Hayes move inside for passing plays.

I think the ND D-Line will be one of the strongest in the Nation.

 

[IrishLion]

Losing Tillery hurts....BUT

A year more experience with Hinish and Ademilola
Getting both MTA and Franklin back
AND adding Super Frosh Lacey to the mix

Overall I say 2019 will be much better overall. Especially when you consider the attention the opposition will have to pay to the DE's AND when Kareen or Hayes move inside for passing plays.

I think the ND D-Line will be one of the strongest in the Nation.

For the record, I agree with you. I think it's going to be a stronger unit overall, top-to-bottom, because of the depth. We lost some stars, but the two-deep is much more filled out with guys that are a year older and wiser within the system. Plus, the young interior players at the first two levels of the defense will be protected by elite guys outside/behind them.

But until we see how they respond to UGA running the ball inside, the jury is out, technically.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

S&P+ projects a 35-16 Irish victory with an 86% chance of at least winning outright. But it doesn't think we'll cover the spread.

 

[fightingirish26]

I think we'd get tOSU'd, ala the Purdue game that sunk their ship last season. Finishing the season strong did nothing for them after that. Best chance to get in with 1 loss is a close loss to a very good Georgia team and hope that the 4th Conference Champion is 2+ losses.

Purdue sunk that ship mostly because it was an absolute blowout. I would hope that we don't get boatraced against one of the lesser teams on our schedule. Although at the same time, OSU had their CCG to fall back on.

I've said before that I don't see a 1 loss ND ever getting into the playoffs, but 11-1 with road wins against UGA and scUM, along with passing the eye test, miiight be enough to put us ahead of a 1-loss Pac-12 champ (assuming the loss isn't against USC/Stanford). Then we'd just have to root for as many 2 loss teams as possible.

 

[IrishLion]

S&P+ projects a 35-16 Irish victory with an 86% chance of at least winning outright. But it doesn't think we'll cover the spread.

Sir, using or referencing 'S&P+' is now a violation of copyright law.

It's SP+, or NICE (Net Index for Collegefootball Efficiency), from now on.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I'd just like to note that SP+ is currently 5-2-1 against the spread this season, an ATS% of 69%.<br><br>I'd also like to announce that I am again changing SP+'s name, this time to the Net Index for Collegefootball Efficiency. Or NICE, for short.</p>— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/1167436209729212416?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 30, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Seriously, though, his projection seems to reflect the reality that Louisville probably isn't nearly as bad as they looked last year, and that they probably see a significant immediate bump just from having a coaching staff that will actually coach, period.

 

[stlnd01]

I think we'd get tOSU'd, ala the Purdue game that sunk their ship last season. Finishing the season strong did nothing for them after that. Best chance to get in with 1 loss is a close loss to a very good Georgia team and hope that the 4th Conference Champion is 2+ losses.

If we lose at all to Georgia, we only make the playoffs if they win the SEC (or, I suppose, lose three other games and fall completely out of contention).
If we're both in the mix with one loss they will, and should, have the edge thanks to head-to-head. If that Georgia loss is in the SEC title game to 'Bama, Bama's in. There's probably Clemson. And I'd bet any other one loss conference champion is going to make it over a one-loss ND team whose best win is Michigan (unless, I guess, that one-loss conference champ lost to us, like Michigan, Stanford or USC).
I think we'd be better off beating Georgia and then losing to, say, Virginia, because at least we'd have that huge marquee win. The committee has shown it values those more than marquee losses. But, I agree, barring complete mayhem the road to the playoffs is really hard right now for a Notre Dame team that goes anything less than undefeated.

 

[ulukinatme]

If we lose at all to Georgia, we only make the playoffs if they win the SEC (or, I suppose, lose three other games and fall completely out of contention).
If we're both in the mix with one loss they will, and should, have the edge thanks to head-to-head. If that Georgia loss is in the SEC title game to 'Bama, Bama's in. There's probably Clemson. And I'd bet any other one loss conference champion is going to make it over a one-loss ND team whose best win is Michigan (unless, I guess, that one-loss conference champ lost to us, like Michigan, Stanford or USC).
I think we'd be better off beating Georgia and then losing to, say, Virginia, because at least we'd have that huge marquee win. The committee has shown it values those more than marquee losses. But, I agree, barring complete mayhem the road to the playoffs is really hard right now for a Notre Dame team that goes anything less than undefeated.

There were three one loss teams at the end of the year that had the opportunity to go to the playoff: OU, Georgia, and tOSU. OU's loss was to Texas by 3, Georgia lost to Alabama by one TD, and tOSU lost to lowly Purdue. It didn't matter that the Buckeyes absolutely destroyed Michigan and Northwestern in their final game and Conference Championship, they were behind the other two because they lost to Purdue. If we lose to Virginia or some other cupcake I'm telling you we are definitely not getting in unless the 4th Conference Champion has 2+ losses (And who knows if that's a guarantee if it's an SEC champ and chaos happened this season). If our lone loss is a close one to Georgia at the beginning of the season? Much better chance we get in.

 

[Irish2155]

There were two one loss teams at the end of the year that had the opportunity to go to the playoff: OU and tOSU. OU's loss was to Texas by 3, Georgia lost to Alabama by one TD and LSU by 20, and tOSU lost to lowly Purdue. It didn't matter that the Buckeyes absolutely destroyed Michigan and Northwestern in their final game and Conference Championship, they were behind OU because they lost to Purdue. If we lose to Virginia or some other cupcake I'm telling you we are definitely not getting in unless the 4th Conference Champion has 2+ losses (And who knows if that's a guarantee if it's an SEC champ and chaos happened this season). If our lone loss is a close one to Georgia at the beginning of the season? Much better chance we get in.

Fixed it for you...

 

[stlnd01]

There were three one loss teams at the end of the year that had the opportunity to go to the playoff: OU, Georgia, and tOSU. OU's loss was to Texas by 3, Georgia lost to Alabama by one TD, and tOSU lost to lowly Purdue. It didn't matter that the Buckeyes absolutely destroyed Michigan and Northwestern in their final game and Conference Championship, they were behind the other two because they lost to Purdue. If we lose to Virginia or some other cupcake I'm telling you we are definitely not getting in unless the 4th Conference Champion has 2+ losses (And who knows if that's a guarantee if it's an SEC champ and chaos happened this season). If our lone loss is a close one to Georgia at the beginning of the season? Much better chance we get in.

Georgia had two losses at the end of last season. They may have been ranked 5th on the eye test but they were never making the playoff.
Oklahoma may have made it in over Ohio State because OU lost to Texas close and OSU lost to Purdue bad. But they both make it in over a one-loss Notre Dame because they both won conference championships and had better wins (particularly Ohio State), which matter more than "good" losses.
I think it's really hard for a one-loss ND to make it under any circumstances short of total chaos and two-loss conference champs across the land. But if we have to lose one, I'd rather it be to a mid-level team, relatively early, than someone we're up against for a playoff spot who would be our marquee win. Especially if that someone does NOT win their conference.

 

[pumpdog20]

Ya'll weak. 12-0 and a rematch with Clemson for the ship. BK has this ship going in the right direction, and we'll finally have a second year QB who actually progresses from a good first year.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

18 Stripes just published a 2019 Advanced Stats Mega-Preview. Well worth your time. Most informative piece I've read on NDFB in a long time.

 

[loomis41973]

Picked up 4 tickets at $30 each. Looks like we're headed to Louisville. Still tons of tickets available...probably be many freebies on game day.

 

[Irishize]

S&P+ projects a 35-16 Irish victory with an 86% chance of at least winning outright. But it doesn't think we'll cover the spread.

Last season, ND was 2-5-1 as a double digit favorite.

 

[NDGOLDEN]

Are ppl on IE still saying we are gonna drop a game we shouldn’t lose? Why are we still talking about how we are gonna lose a game we shouldn’t. I feel like we are over that hump. Let’s win the games we are supposed to and give hell to the teams we aren’t.

 

[stlnd01]

Last season, ND was 2-5-1 as a double digit favorite.

And yet we won all the games.

 

[BGIF]

Are ppl on IE still saying we are gonna drop a game we shouldn’t lose? Why are we still talking about how we are gonna lose a game we shouldn’t. I feel like we are over that hump. Let’s win the games we are supposed to and give hell to the teams we aren’t.

Sounds like you're arguing with yourself. You brought up the topic.

 

[Johannes]

Hell is the remaining thirty-seven hours before kick-off.

Then, regardless of outcome, hell will be the next 12 days of waiting until we have a proper college football Saturday.

Whose idea was this again?

 

[IrishFaninTX]

And yet we won all the games.

I believe he's talking about the spread, not wins vs losses

 

[stlnd01]

I believe he's talking about the spread, not wins vs losses

I know. I was being facetious. But I'm also not sure why people care about the spread.

 

[bkess8]

Currently deployed but wouldn't miss this game for the world. Going to get up super early for the opener and watch us kick some @ss! GO IRISH!

 

[GreenGemsOmally]

Hell is the remaining thirty-seven hours before kick-off.

Then, regardless of outcome, hell will be the next 12 days of waiting until we have a proper college football Saturday.

Whose idea was this again?

Yup, this is why I planned my Bachelor party for the bye-week.

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

Oh boy, I don't want to ring alarm bells but..... this ain't good

 

[DONTH8]

Oh boy, I don't want to ring alarm bells but..... this ain't good

Well if you aren't going to ring the bells here, PM me.