UT ranked
7th in Defensive S & P+ last year. Strong will have to replace some production from last year's unit, but they're still projected to be very good. For comparison, LSU ranked 9th last year, and we scored 31 against them.
The only way we hang 40+ on UT's defense is if they're much worse than projected, or our offense is Oregon-level awesome.
Neither of those scenarios is totally implausible, but the safe money is on a comfortable and low-scoring victory.
I caveat this with I do not know the ins and outs of advanced stats, so some of this may be factored in.
1. We put up a lot of points last year without much red zone success. I think that changes this year and we will turn more FGs into touchdowns.
2. I think our defense will be at least marginally better than they were at the end of last year which will leave us with better field position and/or points off turnovers.
3. I have been drinking CJ Sanders Kool-Aid for the past 3 months and expect him to flip the field or take a few to the house.
Given those factors, I don't think it is totally unreasonable to predict 40+. Also, I'm a homer.
Regarding the bolded, I personally don't think any low-scoring victory will be "comfortable" given our recent defensive woes. I think the only way have an easy win is if we blow them out on offense.