The start of the 2015 season is here, and the Irish are receiving more publicity as a potential championship contender than at the start of any other season in the Brian Kelly era. Several media outlets have picked Notre Dame to be selected to the College Football Playoff.
Coaches across the country have expressed concern - directly or indirectly - that the independent Irish might steal a playoff spot away from the champion of their conference. The Notre Dame fan base is expecting, and in some circles demanding, a major step forward on the field this fall.
What would a major step forward really look like, and when might it be evident? In an article published earlier this summer, I indicated that the numbers suggest a 4-0 start is statistically likely for the Irish (56 percent) - but that likelihood might be more a function of the strength of the opposition and the home/road split of the games than any other factor. If Notre Dame beats Texas, Virginia, Georgia Tech, and Massachusetts to start the year, will enough have been learned to project success for the rest of the season going forward?
Elite teams are defined not just by their win-loss columns, but also by how they perform in those wins and losses.
I recently analyzed the Massey Consensus, a composite of more than 100 college football rating systems compiled to produce a consensus ranking order of teams. Teams that finished a season among the top five in the Massey Consensus were categorized in my analysis as "elite," and I explored the nature of their wins and losses against other opponent ranking categories.
Overall, elite teams combined to win 90.5 percent of their games against Football Bowl Subdivision opponents in the last 10 seasons, and their average scoring margin in those games was 21.9 points per game. Notre Dame's average margin of victory in the Kelly era is 8.3 points per game.
The 2012 team posted an average scoring margin in its undefeated regular season of 16.4 points per game. That team played its way to a national championship game berth, but an even stronger average scoring margin will likely be needed to elevate the program to consistently elite status.
Elite teams occasionally lose games, but those losses usually come down to the wire. The elite teams in the Massey Consensus over the last 10 seasons have combined to lose only 3 percent of their games by more than eight points. Only one of those multiple-score losses by an elite team came against an opponent ranked outside the top 15.
By comparison, 45 percent of the losses suffered by Kelly's teams at Notre Dame have come by more than a single score and four of those multiple-score losses came against an opponent ranked outside the Massey Consensus top 15. The Irish suffered two such losses last season, defeats that got out of hand quickly against both Arizona State and USC.
Another characteristic of elite teams is that they often roll up high scoring margins against overmatched competition. Of the games played by elite teams against opponents ranked worse than 30th in the Massey Consensus, 59 percent have been won by the elite team by at least 25 points.
In the last five years, Notre Dame has played 41 games against opponents ranked worse than 30th in the Massey Consensus. Kelly's teams have won 83 percent of those games, but they have only won 22 percent of those games by at least 25 points. Only three of those wins (Air Force in 2013, plus Rice and Michigan in 2014) have come in the last two seasons.
According to my latest projections, there is a good chance that three of Notre Dame's first four opponents will be ranked outside the Massey Consensus top 30 at season's end and eight Irish opponents in total are likely to finish the season outside the top 30. Will the Irish not only win those games, but actually dominate those victories?
According to my projections, a team with an elite profile should rack up at least five wins by at least a 25-point margin against the schedule the Irish will face.
The 25-point scoring margin isn't an arbitrary threshold. A victory by at least four scores usually provides ample opportunity to rest starters and build experienced depth with playing time for backups to better prepare for tougher opponents later in the season. Those kinds of opportunities won't present themselves every week, but if Notre Dame wants to remain in the playoff hunt it'll have to seize them when they do.
Irish Analytics Game Projection
The ratings I publish each week are used to calculate win likelihoods for upcoming FBS games throughout the college football season. The numbers like the Irish to roll against Texas with a projected 92 percent win likelihood and a 60 percent chance to win by at least 17 points. That bold prediction has less to do with the Irish than it does with the rating system's lack of faith in the Longhorns. Texas scored 17 points or fewer on six occasions last season and didn't record a single victory over a top 40 opponent in 2014. Their trend line doesn't suggest a major leap forward this fall, especially since they'll be inexperienced at key positions to start the year.
Notre Dame 34, Texas 12
freshman at MLB in 2014 after Schmidt went down, and look how that worked out for us!
