Mine
09.04 @ Texas: 69%
09.10 vs. Nevada: 100%
09.11 vs. Michigan State: 70%
09.24 vs. Duke: 85%
10.01 vs. Syracuse ( MetLife Stadium): 92%
10.08 @ NC State: 65%
10.15 vs. Stanford: 65%
10.29 vs. Miami: 80%
11.05 vs. Navy (EverBank Field): 85%
11.12 vs. Army (Alamodome): 109%
11.19 vs. Virginia Tech: 85%
11.26 @ USC: 50%
Can't argue with any of this. I think NCSt should be higher but not enough to haggle. I can't even argue with SC. I have ZERO idea how to handicap that right now because who knows what team SC will be? Top 5 or 5 loss? Could be either one. We'll know by Oct 1.
Also - we are in the playoff at 11-1, we do not have to run the table to make it. I don't care how weak the schedule ends up being, they are not leaving a one loss ND out of the mix.
I can give you a countless scenarios how an 11-1 ND is out. 11-1 ND has to have wins over MSU, Stanford and SC with MSU and one of the PAC's being conference champs and the loss needs to be a close one on the road to a 2 loss Texas squad that finishes second to OU in the Big12 before I'll say ND is most likely in with a loss. Even then, what if #1 and undefeated Bama loses a close one to a one loss, #4 Georgia/Tennessee/Florida in the SEC Championship game?
I don't know. The Playoff committee was pretty set on keeping us out last year prior to the Stanford loss. Our schedule this year will likely be weaker than last year with no Clemson game to bolster it from a SOS perspective. How do you make the case for us to get in if we're up against an 11-1 SEC team for the 4th spot? Clemson would likely get in ahead of us at 11-1 as well, their schedule is comparable to ours and they start higher in the food chain. I don't see them leaving an 11-1 B1G champ out. That leaves the PAC-12 or Big 12 champ getting left out again.
Good news here is you can beat MSU at home and MSU gets both UM and OSU. I think UM and OSU are a little better than MSU this year but home field may be the 20% boost that helps State win it again. In that case, MSU is out.
We need to win out unless the field does us a favor and cannibalizes. We simply don't need to worry about this garbage until we've seen how we come out against Texas. We could easily drop that game.
Those numbers mean absolutely nothing unless you are betting on the games.
Don't ever discount Vegas at helping you understand the chances of winning and losing.
Can ND lose this game, sure. They shouldn't. They expect to win. Only ESPN and their fancy algorithm think it's probable they lose.
I do agree, with needing the field to cannibalize itself, every team needs this with a loss. Every year there is a chance that even a 1 loss Bama could be left out if the other 4 or ND went undefeated.... like if ND, Michigan, Clemson/FSU and OU all went undefeated this year.
