11W: You released a formula the other day that identified national title contenders for the upcoming season based on past trends. One of the teams on that list was Michigan State. I’m not a believer at all in them this year. I think defensively they’re going to be really good. Offensively, I just don’t see it – they lost Kirk Cousins and B.J. Cunningham. What about Michigan State do you see that will make them a strong team this year?
PS: Look at the past three years’ national champion – all three had first-year starting quarterbacks. A lot of it does revolve around defenses. I rated Michigan State’s defense No. 8 in the country coming into this season. They’ve got the No. 10 defensive line, No. 2 linebackers and No. 15 defensive backs. You look at them offensively, yes, they do lose Cousins and they’re top four wide receivers. But last year’s running game, I thought, underachieved. You have Le’Veon Bell and (Larry) Caper in the backfield – I expect far better than 3.9 yards per carry. I think this year with the bulk of the offensive line coming back – four starters – there’s going to be more of a reliance on the run game. I think you’re going to see that improve to the 4.4 to 4.5 level.
And Andrew Maxwell is a pretty good quarterback. He’s not the veteran that Kirk Cousins was, but he’s also not a walk-on coming off the street. He’s a 6-foot-3, 212-pound kid with a good arm. He’s got enough years in the offense where he understands it. They added DeAnthony Arnett, the Tennessee transfer. They also have a solid special teams, which I rate No. 20.
I do have them as underdogs at Michigan and at Wisconsin. Those are in back-to-back weeks. But I have them favored in every other game. They have Ohio State at home, they have Nebraska at home. They’re a team that has a shot at winning the Legends Division.
A lot of people frown on first-year starting quarterbacks, but they own three straight national titles. After three of four games, you turn into a veteran.
