Red Zone Offense

[NDRock]

Just wanted to get some people's thoughts on what the issues are and if/how they can be fixed. Our red zone stats for the last six years are:

2010 - 51st

2011 - 82nd

2012 - 67th

2013 - 69th

2014 - 78th

2015 - 98th

I really thought that we would be much better this year with a true running QB in Malik. Obviously he got hurt but Kizer is a beast back there and gives us a true running threat. Seems like it is just a problem with the type of offense Kelly likes to run. Can it be fixed? Thoughts?

 

[Bluto]

Run straight ahead ISO run plays. The thing is Steve Elemer and or Nick Martin would have to not get completely blown up by the D line.

 

[Tejas]

I'd like to see some QB under center with FB lead blocking. ND gets a little too cute for my taste.

Anything thrown to CRob in the red zone should be 15 feet in the air.

 

[gkIrish]

We're 7-1. You have to realize that with all the injuries this year and the obstacles faced by the head coach of Notre Dame it's downright impossible to have a good Red Zone offense. We should have beat the #3 team in the country despite our red zone woes and our schedule has been daunting. We are doing as well as could be expected.

 

[IrishinSyria]

No fullback, no I-formation, no goal-line package, weak TE play this year...

we're an offense built on stretching the field and spreading the defense out. Once things start to compress and we lose our ability to do that, we don't really have a back-up plan.

 

[OCIrish]

My first and only thoughts are this OL is horrible inside the 10......and I mean putrid!!! They have a real issue with getting a push at the point of attack, and my goodness, is Steve Elmer God awful......I hate to say it, but he just is!!!

 

[OCIrish]

No fullback, no I-formation, no goal-line package, weak TE play this year...

we're an offense built on stretching the field and spreading the defense out. Once things start to compress and we lose our ability to do that, we don't really have a back-up plan.

Cannot disagree with any of this......Reps sir!!!

 

[NDgradstudent]

We're 7-1. You have to realize that with all the injuries this year and the obstacles faced by the head coach of Notre Dame it's downright impossible to have a good Red Zone offense. We should have beat the #3 team in the country despite our red zone woes and our schedule has been daunting. We are doing as well as could be expected.

What are you referring to, precisely? Are you saying that a limit on who we can recruit is causing endless red zone turnovers in big games (Clemson, USC, Temple)? Stanford is 45th in red zone offense.

 

[Cackalacky]

I wonder if it is a function of the offensive scheme. One that is primarily designed for large chunk plays. As the field gets shorter, those plays are not there or are more easily defended. BK has little trouble scoring from outside the red zone. This observation is primarily related to seasons past as I think there is a paradigm shift currently on-going.

 

[yankeeND]

We're 7-1. You have to realize that with all the injuries this year and the obstacles faced by the head coach of Notre Dame it's downright impossible to have a good Red Zone offense. We should have beat the #3 team in the country despite our red zone woes and our schedule has been daunting. We are doing as well as could be expected.

Come on man, at least put this in italics. You sound reasonable lol.

There is some definite work to be done down there, and the turnovers can't happen. These aren't Kizer's first two int's that cost the team points either. I obviously want td's down there, but we can't miss on three that close.

 

[irishff1014]

I wonder if it is a function of the offensive scheme. One that is primarily designed for large chunk plays. As the field gets shorter, those plays are not there or are more easily defended. BK has little trouble scoring from outside the red zone. This observation is primarily related to seasons past as I think there is a paradigm shift currently on-going.

This is it exactly. Inside the ten everything gets tight. I would agree this offense is designed to operate in the open field which you don't have. But the play calling also isn't the greatest either. The try and get to cute at times.

 

[Grahambo]

With Kizer being the best short yardage back we have healthy, its an issue. Sometimes, I think the playcalling gets a little over the top.

K.I.S.S

 

[kmoose]

Sophomore QB seeing his first game action, tailback who has never played tailback before, TE by committee due to losing the starter for the season. Inconsistent performance(in the Red Zone) from the Offensive Line........... gee, I can't understand why we are struggling in the Red Zone.

At Cincinnati, Kelly's Red Zone offenses ranked:

2009: #20 (88%)
2008: #58 (82%)
2007: #30 (86%)
2006: #78 (76%)

At ND, Kelly's Red Zone offenses have been:

2010: #49 (83%)
2011: #88 (77%)
2012: #70 (80%)
2013: #79 (80%)
2014: #82 (81%)

So you could level some valid criticism that Kelly has not performed well in the Red Zone, over his D-IA career. But he has this team averaging a very good 36.5 points per game. I'm more concerned about how many points we have at the final whistle, than I am about where on the field they come from.

 

[IrishinSyria]

Sophomore QB seeing his first game action, tailback who has never played tailback before, TE by committee due to losing the starter for the season. Inconsistent performance(in the Red Zone) from the Offensive Line........... gee, I can't understand why we are struggling in the Red Zone.

At Cincinnati, Kelly's Red Zone offenses ranked:

2009: #20 (88%)
2008: #58 (82%)
2007: #30 (86%)
2006: #78 (76%)

At ND, Kelly's Red Zone offenses have been:

2010: #49 (83%)
2011: #88 (77%)
2012: #70 (80%)
2013: #79 (80%)
2014: #82 (81%)

So you could level some valid criticism that Kelly has not performed well in the Red Zone, over his D-IA career. But he has this team averaging a very good 36.5 points per game. I'm more concerned about how many points we have at the final whistle, than I am about where on the field they come from.

I don't think anyone's arguing that Kelly's a bad coach or we need to change everything because of this... just that we could go from averaging 36.5 points/game to 40+ if we could just punch it in in the red zone. I think Kelly himself would say that this is an area we need to improve in.

 

[kmoose]

I don't think anyone's arguing that Kelly's a bad coach or we need to change everything because of this... just that we could go from averaging 36.5 points/game to 40+ if we could just punch it in in the red zone. I think Kelly himself would say that this is an area we need to improve in.

Oh.............. there are A LOT of people arguing that Kelly is a bad coach, on this board.

But I will take 37 points a game from Kelly, as long as he continues to improve the Defense. 37 points a game should put us right where everyone is bitching that they want to be; a perennial Top 10-15 team who makes a legitimate run on a semi-regular basis.

 

[Cackalacky]

I don't think anyone's arguing that Kelly's a bad coach or we need to change everything because of this... just that we could go from averaging 36.5 points/game to 40+ if we could just punch it in in the red zone. I think Kelly himself would say that this is an area we need to improve in.

He did say as much... even last night. Point being we had 3 points from 4 trips to the red zone last night alone. ND putting away USC was hampered by a fumble and inability to move the ball in the red zone. TOs in the red zones are killers. There are other examples, but scoring points is one thing... putting teams away when you can is another. Allowing teams to hang around is problemstic. If you score in the red zone these issues take care of themselves. It's not just about scoring from wherever IMO.

 

[Cogs]

Sophomore QB seeing his first game action, tailback who has never played tailback before, TE by committee due to losing the starter for the season. Inconsistent performance(in the Red Zone) from the Offensive Line........... gee, I can't understand why we are struggling in the Red Zone.

At Cincinnati, Kelly's Red Zone offenses ranked:

2009: #20 (88%)
2008: #58 (82%)
2007: #30 (86%)
2006: #78 (76%)

At ND, Kelly's Red Zone offenses have been:

2010: #49 (83%)
2011: #88 (77%)
2012: #70 (80%)
2013: #79 (80%)
2014: #82 (81%)

So you could level some valid criticism that Kelly has not performed well in the Red Zone, over his D-IA career. But he has this team averaging a very good 36.5 points per game. I'm more concerned about how many points we have at the final whistle, than I am about where on the field they come from.

Taking these stats into consideration and factoring in how good the offense has been the last 2 years, imagine how good ND could be if we were even top 30 in this category. That's an additional 10-14 points per game on good days.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Two words.... jet sweep.

Two more words.... stop it.

 

[IrishLax]

Teams with really good red zone offenses generally have pro style power running attacks with good blocking TEs or are really good at misdirection with a mobile QB... or run an option offense like Navy.

The problem with our team is that the running plays are all slow developing AND our OL doesn't win at the point of attack as well as we had hoped AND the TEs aren't good blockers AND our WRs tend to be quicker without great hands or good size. It's a combination of problems. I don't know the solution.

 

[NDinBoston]

ND is 26 for 33 for 79% (#99). Top 20 is 90% or 30/33 so only needed to convert 4 of the 7 missed opportunities.

TEX - Missed 45-yd FG after losing 11 yards on prior two plays
UVA - Missed 34-yd FG
GT - INT on 3rd and Goal from the GT 5
CLEM - Chris Brown fumble at the CLEM 3 going in for TD
USC - Torii fumble inside the USC 5 on 1st and Goal from the USC 9
TEMPLE - Two INTs

So, of the 7, 3 INTs, 2 Fumbles, and 2 missed FGs.

The TD% is only 57% or about 4 missed opportunities from a Top 20 rank. Eliminating the TOs could address that.

OSU and MSU are both 28/34 so if ND converts their next RZ opportunity they are equal. ALA is 30/35 so converting next two RZ opps essentially equal. Other top teams struggling as well.

Is it play calling or TOs hurting the most? Young kicker now hitting his stride, developing young QB who should learn from prior mistakes.

Should be interesting to see if this improves moving forward.

 

[IrishLion]

Teams with really good red zone offenses generally have pro style power running attacks with good blocking TEs or are really good at misdirection with a mobile QB... or run an option offense like Navy.

The problem with our team is that the running plays are all slow developing AND our OL doesn't win at the point of attack as well as we had hoped AND the TEs aren't good blockers AND our WRs tend to be quicker without great hands or good size. It's a combination of problems. I don't know the solution.

Solution ASAP? Let Kizer go under center like Rees did in '10/'11 and Golson did in '12, let CJ get downhill and find a crease. Utilize PA rollout with run/pass options.

Solution to the bolded specifically? Let the skill positions transition to the current crop of youngsters (ESB, Boykin, Alize) and use the size package in the red zone. Guys that can go up and get the ball, but also guys that can body up DB's on run plays. But that might not be until next season or the year after, depending on when Fuller leaves and if Hunter becomes a mainstay.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

2010: Finished the season ranked #54 in Red Zone Scoring, converting on 82.6% of trips. They ranked #87 in TD% and #30 in FG%. Of the 46 trips to the Red Zone, they scored TDs 56% of the time and FGs 26%. There were 8 trips that resulted in 0 points.

2011: Finished the season ranked #88 in Red Zone Scoring, converting on 77% of trips. They ranked #28 in TD% and #107 in FG%. Of the 48 trips to the Red Zone, they scored TDs 67% of the time and FGs 10%. There were 11 trips that resulted in 0 points.

2012: Finished the season ranked #73 in Red Zone Scoring, converting on 80% of trips. They ranked #112 in TD% and #12 in FG%. Of the 60 trips to the Red Zone, they scored TDs 48% of the time and FGs 32%. There were 12 trips that resulted in 0 points.

2013: Finished the season ranked #79 in Red Zone Scoring, converting on 80% of trips. They ranked #100 in TD% and #26 in FG%. Of the 45 trips to the Red Zone, they scored TDs 53% of the time and FGs 27%. There were 9 trips that resulted in 0 points.

2014: Finished the season ranked #82 in Red Zone Scoring, converting on 81% of trips. They ranked #45 in TD% and #97 in FG%. Of the 62 trips to the Red Zone, they scored TDs 65% of the time and FGs 16%. There were 12 trips that resulted in 0 points.

2015: Currently ranked #99 in Red Zone Scoring, converting on 79% of trips. They rank #85 in TD% and #81 in FG%. Of the 33 trips to the Red Zone, they have scored TDs 58% of the time and FGs 21%. There are 7 trips that have resulted in 0 points.


To steal from Keith and make my own version: "The Good, The Bad, The Ugly"

The Good: As someone has pointed out already, converting only one or two more times results in pretty big changes in the rankings and percentages. The offense is efficient between the 20s and gets to the Red Zone often enough compared to the rest of the FBS. Big play ability for BK's teams the last two seasons tend to offset the Red Zone woes.

The Bad: The average ranking for Red Zone offense under BK is #79. The average TD% ranking is #76. The average FG% is #59. There have been two seasons where TD% ranked 100+ and two seasons where FG% ranked 97+. Those are some pretty sad stats given the talent and hype of his offense upon hiring.

The Ugly: It was noted on ESPN that ND leads all FBS schools in Red Zone turnovers this year AND over the last two years. It's bad enough to get to the Red Zone and not score a touchdown, but to not come away with even a FG is pretty sad. They do not do a great job protecting the ball. Turning it over on downs while going for a score is one thing. Throwing an INT or fumbling is completely different.

Lastly, to make a point regarding BK's Total Scoring Offense: The average ranking is #55.5 with the average total PPG being 29.6. Last year and this year are the first times a BK-lead ND offense has averaged 30+ PPG. That shouldn't be surprising considering the attrition and QB troubles. But lets not act like this is a high scoring offense on the regular. It's progressively getting better, but Red Zone offense will be what gets this team to elite status on that side of the ball.

Overall, to piggyback off a point I made in the Revisiting Brian Kelly thread, Kelly's defenses and offenses have been good enough to win games, but the Red Zone play is what's really holding his teams back year after year. One or two conversions here or there and it drastically changes his W/L record going back to 2010. It's not the only reason ND loses games, but Red Zone offense is a real problem.

 

[Irish YJ]

BK has to look inward on this one. Not suggesting it's all his fault, but play calling has to factor in here. The span of years suggests it's not just an execution issue.

 

[dublinirish]

Weishar's inability to block/set the edge and Hounshell's inability to do anything but block is hurting ND in the redzone alot. Guys like Brown and Fuller have little value down there also. This team just isn't built for it

 

[NDgradstudent]

The Ugly: It was noted on ESPN that ND leads all FBS schools in Red Zone turnovers this year AND over the last two years.

We all know what we have seen, of course, but I'm sure many of us were still pretty stunned when they put that on the screen. The stat is beyond calamitous, obviously. I don't know how easily it can be fixed.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

We all know what we have seen, of course, but I'm sure many of us were still pretty stunned when they put that on the screen. The stat is beyond calamitous, obviously. I don't know how easily it can be fixed.

I can't seem to find a Red Zone Turnover stat anywhere with a Google search. Does anyone have a link? I'd really like to see this stat going back to 2010.

 

[connor_in]

Two words.... jet sweep.

Two more words.... stop it.

Pay up fellas...I told ya southerners could count!

Just playing, TTT

 

[Wild Bill]

Teams with really good red zone offenses generally have pro style power running attacks with good blocking TEs or are really good at misdirection with a mobile QB... or run an option offense like Navy.

The problem with our team is that the running plays are all slow developing AND our OL doesn't win at the point of attack as well as we had hoped AND the TEs aren't good blockers AND our WRs tend to be quicker without great hands or good size. It's a combination of problems. I don't know the solution.

The one issue you mentioned that can be immediately changed is the slow developing running plays. The roster is what it is so the staff should focus on play calling and maybe installing some more down hill running plays that still fit within the overall scheme.

Losing Smythe and luatua didn't help. Maybe we improve a bit with luatua back. I liked that Kizer lead that scored early in the game. That's a tough play to stop.

 

[NDRock]

I think you guys are right about the slow developing running plays when the field gets compressed. I know both interceptions Saturday came on 3rd &10. If we're able to run for positive yards then the downs become 3rd and short which allows for a run/pass option.

The TE production has been a big disappointment the last two years. That's one position we are able to consistently recruit at a high level, we need to develop the talent.

I am glad that Kelly mentioned the red zone issue in his presser. He seems to be able to fix issues when he focuses on it.

 

[ACamp1900]

Jones should come along quickly for TE... as far as slow developing run plays, it's been my nagging gripe on BK for years now... get the damn ball moving forward already, especially in the red zone.