Red Zone Offense

[Legacy]

Turnovers in the Red Zone

Turnovers in the Red Zone

What the overall turnover rates do not show - and which drives Irish fans nuts - are the Turnovers within the Red Zone.

Of the eighteen turnoverstis year (nine Interceptions and nine Fumbles lost), nine have occurred in the Red Zone (six Interceptions and three Fumbles).

Game Logs
Georgia Tech (1) - Interception with ND on the 5 yard line
Clemson (2) - Interception with ND on the 18 yard line, Fumble with ND on the 4 yard line
ÙSC (1) - Fumble with ND on the 9 yard line
Temple (2) - Interception with ND on the 14 yard line, Interception with ND on the 18 yard line
Boston College (3) - Fumble with ND on the 1 yard line, Interception with ND on the 6 yard line, Interception with ND on the 7 yard line

ND has converted Red Zone possessions into points 40 times out of 50 (80%). Four conversions of those nine turnovers within the Red Zone would give us a 88% RZ conversion rate (T- 35th). Convert all nine into points (49 out of 50 chances) and ND would be 1st in RZ conversions. One FG of the two RZ turnovers against Clemson would have given us the game. Six of those nine TOs were inside the 10 yard line.

 

[NDRock]

The best RB and one of the best OLs with TDs only half the time in the RZ -- Fire Kiffin!

They probably should fire Kiffin, he's terrible.

 

[NDRock]

Alabama was good on D in the red zone, Ohio State was good on O, we were good on neither side of the ball.

 

[kmoose]

Alabama was good on D in the red zone, Ohio State was good on O, we were good on neither side of the ball.

I'm not sure what you are talking about. If you mean THIS year, then ND's Defense finished the season #22 in Red Zone Defense. While that's probably not Championship-caliber, it's certainly "good".

 

[Cackalacky]

What the overall turnover rates do not show - and which drives Irish fans nuts - are the Turnovers within the Red Zone.

Of the nine Interceptions and nine Fumbles lost, eight have occurred in the Red Zone (six Interceptions and two Fumbles).

Game Logs
Georgia Tech (1) - Interception with ND on the 5 yard line
Clemson (2) - Interception with ND on the 18 yard line, Fumble with ND on the 4 yard line
Temple (2) - Interception with ND on the 14 yard line, Interception with ND on the 18 yard line
Boston College (3) - Fumble with ND on the 1 yard line, Interception with ND on the 6 yard line, Interception with ND on the 7 yard line

ND has converted Red Zone possessions into points 40 times out of 50 (80%). Four conversions of those eight turnovers within the Red Zone would give us a 88% RZ conversion rate (T- 35th). Convert all eight into points (48 out of 50 chances) and ND would be tied for 1st in RZ conversions. One FG of the two RZ turnovers against Clemson would have given us the game.

Hunter fumbled against USC on the 3.

 

[NDRock]

I'm not sure what you are talking about. If you mean THIS year, then ND's Defense finished the season #22 in Red Zone Defense. While that's probably not Championship-caliber, it's certainly "good".

I personally look at TD% when looking at red zone (both offense and defense). To me, FG% is more of a special teams stat and our D has little impact whether other teams have good kickers or not. We were 102nd in red zone defense in stopping teams from scoring TDs. Interestingly, we gave up the least amount of FGs in the nation (3) which skews our stats (IMO).

Look at the Stanford game, both offenses were 100% in the red zone as follows:

Stanford - 5 for 5 with 5 TDs = 35 points
ND - 4 for 4 with 3 FGs 1 TD = 16 points

Both got credit for perfect red zone performance but Stanford's was clearly better than the other. On the flip side, both D's gave up 100% of red zone chances but Stanfords were clearly better giving up a TD% of 25%.

 

[Cackalacky]

I personally look at TD% when looking at red zone (both offense and defense). To me, FG% is more of a special teams stat and our D has little impact whether other teams have good kickers or not. We were 102nd in red zone defense in stopping teams from scoring TDs. Interestingly, we gave up the least amount of FGs in the nation (3) which skews our stats (IMO).

too busy scoring td's

 

[Legacy]

Hunter fumbled against USC on the 3.

Thanks, C. Corrected.

I agree that TD % conversion is best to assess maximum efficiency in the RZ. But a moderating factor is the overall offensive efficiency in generating RZ opportunities.

A good comparison is Alabama, whose RZ stats are similar to ours, and Oklahoma.
Alabama converted 41 of 50 attempts (80.39%) with a 50.98% TD conversion rate.
Oklahoma generatered 65 opportunities, converted 58 (89.23%) with a 67.69% TD conversion rate.
Stanford's stats are similar to Oklahoma's - 52 out of 59 chances (88.14%) with a 67.8% TD conversion rate.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

OFD just published an article on our red zone woes:

So what do I see as the biggest issues with the ND red zone offense?

The first and most impactful is plain to see and something ND has been dealing with for several seasons - turnovers in the red zone. Fumbles on the goal line and interceptions in the endzone killed several productive drives, not even giving the opportunity to put three points on the board. This is something that all of the players know can't happen, but the goal line fever gets the best of everyone from time to time as we've seen this season.

The second, which is less impactful, but still interesting to look into, is our "long" red zone play selection. Often times when the Irish reach the 20 yard line, but aren't within the 10, they will choose to still run plays meant to score touchdowns. The 20 yard line is kind of a no-man's land when it comes to the passing game - if you look to reach the end zone, you're still making a 20 yard pass downfield, which is lower percentage. Add in the fact that safeties can play more aggressively due to the short field, and it seems like a tough sell that taking endzone shots from this area of the field is worth it.

Time and again, the Irish had little to no productivity from these shots towards the endzone from the "long" redzone - I'd like to see them work in some more horizontal stretch plays (short spacing passes, jet sweep, etc.) in this area of the field to then setup the full redzone package when they are closer to the goal line. We will see what their plan of attack in the red zone is against a tough Ohio State defense in the Fiesta Bowl.

 

[NDRock]

A big reason for our success the first 4 games has been the red zone play on both sides of the ball. Just a quick look at how well we've been this year compared to the previous 5 years:

Offense
2017 - 4th
2016 - 55th
2015 - 79th
2014 - 45th
2013 - 100
2012 - 112th

Defense
2017 - 12th
2016 - 71st
2015 - 95th
2014 - 116
2013 - 18th
2012 - 3rd

These stats reflect TD% not just scoring in the red zone as I think that is much more important. In past seasons, that MSU game probably would have been much closer as we may have settled for a couple of FGs and maybe given up another TD.

 

[stlnd01]

We are, what, 19 for 19 in red zone scoring this year, with 17 touchdowns. I think that is probably my favorite stat of the season, one-third of the way through.

Also 12th in red zone defense is pretty stout too.

 

[Cackalacky]

OFD just published an article on our red zone woes:

Looking forward to OFD revisiting this issue with respect to this years RZ awesomness.