Path to the CFP?

[Cackalacky2.0]

Kirby Smart is winless against Saban. My expectation is that Bama wins SEC champ and both get in.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Kirby Smart is winless against Sagan.

This is the year!!

 

[NDGOLDEN]

There is no where in the committee criteria that states they take recently biased or eye test

Their criteria is (this is based on bama losing)


Championships won(bama won’t have that)

Strength of Schedule(by end of year they will def have a better SOS than us but we still have a solid SOS)

Head-to-Head(we don’t have head to head)


Comparative outcomes of common opponents(no common opponents)

So basically they will have nothing on us other than SOS if they end up with a better one(which they probably will).

This is a new season. You can’t bring past years into this season. If you are gonna give bama the benefit of a doubt then why should bama or Georgia bother playing any games and just have them 2 in the playoff at beginning of year and have them not play any games and every other team just fight for 2 spots. And if that is what the committee is doing then it’s a flawed system clearly

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

There is no where in the committee criteria that states they take recently biased or eye test

Their criteria is (this is based on bama losing)


Championships won(bama won’t have that)

Strength of Schedule(by end of year they will def have a better SOS than us but we still have a solid SOS)

Head-to-Head(we don’t have head to head)


Comparative outcomes of common opponents(no common opponents)

So basically they will have nothing on us other than SOS if they end up with a better one(which they probably will).

This is a new season. You can’t bring past years into this season. If you are gonna give bama the benefit of a doubt then why should bama or Georgia bother playing any games and just have them 2 in the playoff at beginning of year and have them not play any games and every other team just fight for 2 spots. And if that is what the committee is doing then it’s a flawed system clearly

You forgot the most important criterion: eye test

 

[Free Manera]

Kirby Smart is winless against Saban. My expectation is that Bama wins SEC champ and both get in.

This is 100% happening. We need Oregon and Cincinnati to lose if we want to get in.

 

[phork]

Phil Steele and his charts... #nerd

https://philsteele.com/2021/11/16/2021-cfb-strength-of-wins-pain-of-losses-thru-week-11/

 

[GATTACA!]

I don’t understand where perception came from that the committee just loves Alabama so much and that they’ll give them special treatment to get them in with two losses. What other 1 loss team should be ahead of them right now? Oregon has the worst loss of anyone in the top ten, OSU lost to them, who else?

Alabama will be eliminated with a second loss unless there is carnage.

 

[Free Manera]

I don’t understand where perception came from that the committee just loves Alabama so much and that they’ll give them special treatment to get them in with two losses. What other 1 loss team should be ahead of them right now? Oregon has the worst loss of anyone in the top ten, OSU lost to them, who else?

Alabama will be eliminated with a second loss unless there is carnage.

I actually think Oregon has a legit beef to be ahead of Bama because the committee looks at variables like injuries and stuff. They were missing their offensive coordinator for that game which is a pretty big deal. They also have the best win since they beat OSU on the road.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

I don’t understand where perception came from that the committee just loves Alabama so much and that they’ll give them special treatment to get them in with two losses. What other 1 loss team should be ahead of them right now? Oregon has the worst loss of anyone in the top ten, OSU lost to them, who else?

Alabama will be eliminated with a second loss unless there is carnage.

The discussion is being had by the pundits so I'm sure the Committee would have the same discussion if Bama did lose a really competitive one to UGA. I agree with you that it wouldn't be right, but I really wouldn't put it past them.

Why is scUM ahead of Sparty with a head to head freakin' loss, while ranking Oregon ahead of pOSU based solely on the merit that they won a head-to-head match up in week 2? Why are we ranked behind Sparty if we have a 2-score W against a common opponent that they lost to? Why are we ranked behind scUM if we beat a common opponent by a wider margin?

What does the Committee do that gives you confidence they wouldn't pull a stunt like that?

 

[Irish#1]

ESPN is already banging the drum for 2 loss Bama. Get ready for it because it will happen.

IT WILL NOT HAPPEN!

There is no way the committee would put a two loss team in over multiple one loss teams regardless of who is pushing it. The heat and criticism from the media, fans, admins and coaches would be unbelievable and they would lose all credibility.

 

[Irish#1]

I really don't think we are nearly as close to making it as people think. I could absolutely see a two loss Bama (if that loss is close) or a 1 loss Big12 champion getting in over ND.

The likelihood of a 2 loss B1G champ isn't great. UGA is in. Bama is more than likely in. So we would need Oregon, Cincy, and more thank likely Oklahoma St and maybe even OU to lose another game; if either of them are 12-1, forget about it. OU would have knocked off one loss OKST and a rematch with Baylor in the CCG. Anyone who thinks that's not enough for the Committee to bump them over us is kidding themselves. We shouldn't even be behind MSU/scUM yet here we are.

There's a lot more chaos needed than I think people really realize. We are not in a single file line; we're in a subjective crowd being judged based on appearances, not with statistics or objectivity; and the Committee thinks we ugly. That's really all it comes down to.

You mean like a wet t-shirt contest?

 

[Wild Bill]

Kirby Smart is winless against Saban. My expectation is that Bama wins SEC champ and both get in.

Doubt many people have gotten rich betting against Saban but Bama will have their hands full this year. I would have agreed with you earlier in the year but I'm not so sure anymore. Georgia's defense is just going to be a tough nut to crack. If they were giving up yards and tightening up in the red zone or relied heavily on creating turnovers, I would be more be inclined to agree with you - bama will find a way. They just shut offenses down with respect to yards, scoring, etc.

It'll be interesting to see how the game plays out. Seemingly bama has more to play for so I expect Saban to have them ready but I think Georgia sees bama as their biggest obstacle to winning a title, and the thought of having to beat them twice to win one probably keeps kirby up at night. I think Georgia will have an aggressive game plan and will do whatever they can to "finish" bama. That may be what opens the door for bama to score some points and win the game. Kirby seems to make some really dumb decisions when he gets out of his element.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

You mean like a wet t-shirt contest?

I think a wet t-shirt contest is definitely more organized than the CFP

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

Doubt many people have gotten rich betting against Saban but Bama will have their hands full this year. I would have agreed with you earlier in the year but I'm not so sure anymore. Georgia's defense is just going to be a tough nut to crack. If they were giving up yards and tightening up in the red zone or relied heavily on creating turnovers, I would be more be inclined to agree with you - bama will find a way. They just shut offenses down with respect to yards, scoring, etc.

It'll be interesting to see how the game plays out. Seemingly bama has more to play for so I expect Saban to have them ready but I think Georgia sees bama as their biggest obstacle to winning a title, and the thought of having to beat them twice to win one probably keeps kirby up at night. I think Georgia will have an aggressive game plan and will do whatever they can to "finish" bama. That may be what opens the door for bama to score some points and win the game. Kirby seems to make some really dumb decisions when he gets out of his element.

For sure. UGAs D is out of this world. Also who know show well BY will fare? I just think if there is someone who can exploit it offensively, I think its Bama and Saban and the historic record of Saban's coaching tree again Saban.

 

[NDGOLDEN]

One thing that helps Kirby is the former assistants losing streak was finally broken this year so who know maybe this is the year they fall twice

 

[GATTACA!]

You mean like a wet t-shirt contest?

ASU, USC, and Texas are suddenly top 5.

 

[NDGOLDEN]

ASU, USC, and Texas are suddenly top 5.

I’d pay a fortune to go to that contest

 

[NDdomer2]

Kirby Smart is winless against Saban. My expectation is that Bama wins SEC champ and both get in.

I expect this because it benefits the SEC and for no other reason.

 

[Rogue219]

For sure. UGAs D is out of this world. Also who know show well BY will fare? I just think if there is someone who can exploit it offensively, I think its Bama and Saban and the historic record of Saban's coaching tree again Saban.

Agreed. I think Ohio State's offense could give UGA some problems too, but that's TBD.

UGA came out of that Tennessee game pretty banged up on defense. I thought at times, UK and Tennessee moved the ball ok against UGA and they're not as good offensively as Bama is. As far as running the ball, I'm not sure anyone can against UGA. You have to take what's there and play measured. Not necessarily conservative or playing not to lose, but measured. Turnovers and penalties need avoiding.

The key is going to be how UGA's QB plays.

 

[Wild Bill]

For sure. UGAs D is out of this world. Also who know show well BY will fare? I just think if there is someone who can exploit it offensively, I think its Bama and Saban and the historic record of Saban's coaching tree again Saban.

If OSU is playing their A game, I think their offense is the biggest threat to Georgia. They have three WRs that can house it from anywhere on the field and that freshman running back runs like the wind blows. Mentally, Bama is the biggest hurdle for them but OSU's offense can score on anyone. I don't necessarily think it's a certainty they'll score a pile of points against Georgia b/c they struggle in the red zone but their big play ability and weapons are second to none.

 

[Rogue219]

Kirby Smart is winless against Saban. My expectation is that Bama wins SEC champ and both get in.

"Winless" just sounds so daunting. Smart has faced Saban three times and lost them all.

I want to see this UGA defense play this Alabama offense and if it turns out to be 0-4, fine, but this isn't like a decades long bowl game losing streak or an outlier considering Saban hadn't lost to a former assistant EVER until last month.

 

[BeatSC]

I don't understand why losing a close game to the undisputed #1 team should drop Bama from 2 to 5. Maybe OSU's & Oregon's resume gets better but I really don't think a close loss to Georgia should be held against any team.

If it’s loss #2 then it should count against them. Sorry

 

[NDGOLDEN]

If it’s loss #2 then it should count against them. Sorry

Exactly. I don’t care if they lose by a point. Losses need to count or what’s the point of playing the games. Like I said earlier if they do that then just don’t even bother having bama play games from now on. Just put them at 1 and figure out the other 3 at end of year

 

[Bishop2b5]

I don't understand why losing a close game to the undisputed #1 team should drop Bama from 2 to 5. Maybe OSU's & Oregon's resume gets better but I really don't think a close loss to Georgia should be held against any team.

It doesn't. Dropping a close game to the #1 team in the country after losing to a mediocre A&M team is what drops out of the top 4.

Then it should have already happened. Either you think Bama is genuinely the 2nd best team in the country right now and would likely beat any team ranked below them, or you don't. Put them below all teams you think would likely beat them right now on a neutral field. If you wouldn't bet against them playing Cincy, UM, OK, MSU, OSU, OR, etc., then you think they're genuinely the 2nd best team.

This has long been a "thing" for me. If you're the #2 team and you lose a close game to #1, why should you drop at all? Are you not still the 2nd best team? Forget Bama, Georgia, or any other specific teams. If two teams are genuinely the two best in the country and they play each other, one of them HAS to lose. If it's a close game, they're STILL the two best teams, regardless of which loses.

A similar thing is ranking a team ahead of another when almost everyone believes the lower ranked team is better and will beat the higher ranked team. If you have team A ranked #1 and team B ranked #2, yet team B is favored by the experts, Vegas, and just about everybody on the planet except team A's fans, why is team A ranked #1??? If you have 1 playing 2 and 2 is favored, your ranking system is flawed. You're ranking teams using the wrong criteria.

Let me make it clear. My position here is NOT because of Bama's involvement. This has been my opinion for decades, regardless of teams involved. I 10,000% believe teams should be ranked based on who would likely beat whom at this point in the season on a neutral field. Resume, W/L record, SOS, MOV, style points, roster talent, coaching talent, eye test, performance, stats, and all the rest are data points in the equation to determine that, with none of them being the one and only thing that counts. Look at all those things (and more) and then decide who you'd bet the house on if you had to bet. This whole "But Team X 'deserves' to be ranked ahead of Team Y" is BS. Which one would you bet the house on? That's who gets ranked ahead of the other.

 

[BeatSC]

I’d pay a fortune to go to that contest

I’ve been to that contest and it’s sold out. This is why I am a fan of style points and my credo is “Go big or go home”

 

[benneboy]

Then it should have already happened. Either you think Bama is genuinely the 2nd best team in the country right now and would likely beat any team ranked below them, or you don't. Put them below all teams you think would likely beat them right now on a neutral field. If you wouldn't bet against them playing Cincy, UM, OK, MSU, OSU, OR, etc., then you think they're genuinely the 2nd best team.

This has long been a "thing" for me. If you're the #2 team and you lose a close game to #1, why should you drop at all? Are you not still the 2nd best team? Forget Bama, Georgia, or any other specific teams. If two teams are genuinely the two best in the country and they play each other, one of them HAS to lose. If it's a close game, they're STILL the two best teams, regardless of which loses.

A similar thing is ranking a team ahead of another when almost everyone believes the lower ranked team is better and will beat the higher ranked team. If you have team A ranked #1 and team B ranked #2, yet team B is favored by the experts, Vegas, and just about everybody on the planet except team A's fans, why is team A ranked #1??? If you have 1 playing 2 and 2 is favored, your ranking system is flawed. You're ranking teams using the wrong criteria.

Let me make it clear. My position here is NOT because of Bama's involvement. This has been my opinion for decades, regardless of teams involved. I 10,000% believe teams should be ranked based on who would likely beat whom at this point in the season on a neutral field. Resume, W/L record, SOS, MOV, style points, roster talent, coaching talent, eye test, performance, stats, and all the rest are data points in the equation to determine that, with none of them being the one and only thing that counts. Look at all those things (and more) and then decide who you'd bet the house on if you had to bet. This whole "But Team X 'deserves' to be ranked ahead of Team Y" is BS. Which one would you bet the house on? That's who gets ranked ahead of the other.

Lol, really wish you would've put this at the top of your post so I could've skipped the rest.

 

[Bishop2b5]

Kirby Smart is winless against Saban. My expectation is that Bama wins SEC champ and both get in.

I think Georgia has a bit of a mental block concerning Bama. They've lost 6 in a row to us, including two SEC championship games and a national championship game that all came down to the final play... and they had all three of those games all but won and let 'em slip away. My brother-in-law is a HUGE Georgia fan and I've heard him say, "It doesn't matter how good we are. Bama just finds a way to kill us in the end." Pretty common mindset over there, I think. To beat us, they've gotta get past that. Kirby needs to get a lead and pour it on, instead of playing to not lose. The SECCG should be interesting. Georgia is -3 and I think that's probably about right. If my guys get their issues worked out and find their groove again, I'd favor us, but not right now. Georgia's legit, I think.

 

[dad4aa]

Then it should have already happened. Either you think Bama is genuinely the 2nd best team in the country right now and would likely beat any team ranked below them, or you don't. Put them below all teams you think would likely beat them right now on a neutral field. If you wouldn't bet against them playing Cincy, UM, OK, MSU, OSU, OR, etc., then you think they're genuinely the 2nd best team.

This has long been a "thing" for me. If you're the #2 team and you lose a close game to #1, why should you drop at all? Are you not still the 2nd best team? Forget Bama, Georgia, or any other specific teams. If two teams are genuinely the two best in the country and they play each other, one of them HAS to lose. If it's a close game, they're STILL the two best teams, regardless of which loses.

A similar thing is ranking a team ahead of another when almost everyone believes the lower ranked team is better and will beat the higher ranked team. If you have team A ranked #1 and team B ranked #2, yet team B is favored by the experts, Vegas, and just about everybody on the planet except team A's fans, why is team A ranked #1??? If you have 1 playing 2 and 2 is favored, your ranking system is flawed. You're ranking teams using the wrong criteria.

Let me make it clear. My position here is NOT because of Bama's involvement. This has been my opinion for decades, regardless of teams involved. I 10,000% believe teams should be ranked based on who would likely beat whom at this point in the season on a neutral field. Resume, W/L record, SOS, MOV, style points, roster talent, coaching talent, eye test, performance, stats, and all the rest are data points in the equation to determine that, with none of them being the one and only thing that counts. Look at all those things (and more) and then decide who you'd bet the house on if you had to bet. This whole "But Team X 'deserves' to be ranked ahead of Team Y" is BS. Which one would you bet the house on? That's who gets ranked ahead of the other.

Then what is the point of playing the season? I don’t care if Bama loses in triple overtime. It is your second loss and you had a chance to beat Georgia and you didn’t. You don’t get a do over. What’s next, if Bama had 3 close losses but you would still bet on them over another team then Bama gets in over them? That’s just stupid.

 

[NDGOLDEN]

Then it should have already happened. Either you think Bama is genuinely the 2nd best team in the country right now and would likely beat any team ranked below them, or you don't. Put them below all teams you think would likely beat them right now on a neutral field. If you wouldn't bet against them playing Cincy, UM, OK, MSU, OSU, OR, etc., then you think they're genuinely the 2nd best team.

This has long been a "thing" for me. If you're the #2 team and you lose a close game to #1, why should you drop at all? Are you not still the 2nd best team? Forget Bama, Georgia, or any other specific teams. If two teams are genuinely the two best in the country and they play each other, one of them HAS to lose. If it's a close game, they're STILL the two best teams, regardless of which loses.

A similar thing is ranking a team ahead of another when almost everyone believes the lower ranked team is better and will beat the higher ranked team. If you have team A ranked #1 and team B ranked #2, yet team B is favored by the experts, Vegas, and just about everybody on the planet except team A's fans, why is team A ranked #1??? If you have 1 playing 2 and 2 is favored, your ranking system is flawed. You're ranking teams using the wrong criteria.

Let me make it clear. My position here is NOT because of Bama's involvement. This has been my opinion for decades, regardless of teams involved. I 10,000% believe teams should be ranked based on who would likely beat whom at this point in the season on a neutral field. Resume, W/L record, SOS, MOV, style points, roster talent, coaching talent, eye test, performance, stats, and all the rest are data points in the equation to determine that, with none of them being the one and only thing that counts. Look at all those things (and more) and then decide who you'd bet the house on if you had to bet. This whole "But Team X 'deserves' to be ranked ahead of Team Y" is BS. Which one would you bet the house on? That's who gets ranked ahead of the other.

So why don’t we just have the top 4 recruiting classes from the year before just be the top 4 teams since they have the most talent and the best coaches and most likely gonna have the the best style points.

There is a reason the games are played is because anything can happen on a Saturday and the results of the games should matter.

Why should bama get the benefit of the doubt because they have the most talent, the best coach, eye test in most cases. So we should award them because they have been the best team for the past 10 years? That’s bullshit if that’s what we are doing cause like I said might as well just have bama and Georgia and Ohio st in the playoff automatically at the beginning of the year.

Games matter. Results matter. Losing 2 games especially one against an unranked team at the time matters.

 

[IrishLax]

I, respectfully, reject bishop's entire premise. Literally no sport (amateur or pro) seeds/ranks teams for playoffs based on perceived talent and "who would beat whom." They all do it on some version of "results on the field." Any alternative to that which prioritizes subjectivity above all is open to manipulation, corruption, and inequity.