Path to the CFP?

[Sea Turtle]

I think Michigan just might beat Ohio State this year. Their defense is legit and I can see them scoring on a couple of flukey ref aided plays at home. I tried to deny it but they are good this year.

 

[IrishRazor82]

You can't put ND over Cinci based on the game nuance. It's not like we lost by 3, we lost by 11 and at home. There is a place to put a losing team over the winning team but unfortunately our first half was an absolute blunder, removing any opportunity to put us ahead of Cinci.

 

[NDFAN420]

ND and Cincy making the playoff means essentially two at-large bids, leaving Power 5 Conferences out. I can't think of a scenario where this could happen even if it were the correct thing to do. The Power 5 run college football, they're going to get theirs no matter what.

 

[RDU Irish]

Undefeated Cincy getting snubbed would be highway robbery. Snubbed with ND making it in would be just dirty.

I don't think Oregon deserves to get in even if they win out. OSU was not great early and still weaker than normal - Stanford loss is damn near unforgivable. That said, I expect them to lose another game and make this easy.

B1G winner should get a spot BUT high probability of 2 losses for all could be a disqualifier. Hard to see a one loss B1G winner being odd man out. I think OSU drops one of the next two - no clue how that tie breaker works for the western division but I think MSU beating OSU then losing to PSU is the highest probability for creating the path forward. Of course OSU will destroy Michigan - it is rule and stuff, if not they still have good shot at crapping the bed vs. Badgers or Hawkeyes.

Bama should only get in if they beat UGA - SEC knows this and I expect serious hijinks in the SEC CCG to benefit Bama.

Big 12 is toast - Choklahoma has another loss in them and OSU won't have enough gas to over the CFP hump assuming they aren't peaking past that T-Tech road game this weekend. Like the Pac12 - weak ass conference destroys strength of schedule.

Cincy shouldn't lose but SMU and Houston aren't going to lay down for them either.

So my order of most likely to be eliminated:

1) Oregon (may not control their destiny anyway)
2) Bama (controls their destiny)
3) B1G (three teams control their destiny but mutually exclusive)
4) Cincy (should control their destiny)

All four of those win out and we should be #6, IMO.

My super stupid worst case ND scenario : Buckeyes lose to both MSU and Michigan to undermine Oregon's only quality win - then Badgers win B1G. Then Bama wins SEC CCG for #1Bama vs #4 ND, #2 Cincy vs #3 UGA playoff. Saban gets a month to game plan on us and we get rewarded with playing the best team in CFB in UGA if we somehow survive.

 

[NDohio]

Michigan lost by 4 in East Lansing, with some conspicuously shoddy review work by the officials. We got beat up at home. These things are not alike.

I agree that rational thinking would put Cinci in over ND. We have enough history now to know the committee is not rational. I believe it is all going to work itself out with plenty of losses still up in the air for teams in contention for CFP however, if both Cinci and ND end up winning out and the final spot comes down to those two teams I believe ND gets in. I'll put all my V-Bucks on it!

Things that matter: money, name recognition, strength of schedule, ratings, fans in the stands, head to head...

 

[RDU Irish]

I think Michigan just might beat Ohio State this year. Their defense is legit and I can see them scoring on a couple of flukey ref aided plays at home. I tried to deny it but they are good this year.

I'm thinking OSU gets caught looking ahead to scUM and drops to MSU next weekend. Quite the grind to finish the season for them. They weren't getting fooled by Purdue again - can they focus on MSU with a trip to the Big House coming down the pike?

 

[phork]

Michigan lost by 4 in East Lansing, with some conspicuously shoddy review work by the officials. We got beat up at home. These things are not alike.

Kenneth Walker III ran for 5 TDs to say Michigan was or is the better team is suspect based on what?

You can't put ND over Cinci based on the game nuance. It's not like we lost by 3, we lost by 11 and at home. There is a place to put a losing team over the winning team but unfortunately our first half was an absolute blunder, removing any opportunity to put us ahead of Cinci.

The committee has said it doesn't matter. Who is the better team, NOW. ND should have won that game and they would win a rematch.

I think Michigan just might beat Ohio State this year. Their defense is legit and I can see them scoring on a couple of flukey ref aided plays at home. I tried to deny it but they are good this year.

OSU, regardless of their status wants to embarass UM every year, this year will be no exception.

 

[Irish#1]

I'm in my 60's. 15 years doesn't seem very long. The Shula and DuBose years still seem almost recent. I remember seeing Namath play while he was still in college. That's how old I am!

I'm 69. Not buying it!

 

[BleedBlueGold]

The Committee literally just ranked Michigan ahead of Michigan State NINE days after Michigan State beat Michigan on the field. Nine Days! The committee thinks Michigan is the better team....

In my defense, I said I don't see a way they put ND in ahead of Cincy and then proceeded to literally list three ways they could validate that decision: SOS, eye test (ND has looked better, Cincy has looked pedestrian since that game in South Bend), money/ratings.

I also don't give a flying F about MSU or UM and have felt both of those teams are overrated and should be behind ND (and they will once they both lose to OSU). The committee is clearly putting value in the timing and the quality of loss (UM blew a lead and barely lost to a ranked MSU while MSU has an embarrassing loss to unranked Purdue). You say NINE DAYS!! but there was a game played during that stretch. Michigan won and MSU lost, hence the flip in rankings. All of these hypotheticals are for Cincy and ND winning out. It's not apples to apples w/ what the committee just did to UM and MSU. It's going to be hard for the committee to place undefeated Cincy w/ a win over top 10 ranked ND behind the exact team they've already beaten. There is a path for them to do so, but I'm just not holding my breath.

*This is moot because Cincy might lose to SMU or Houston still and we can all cheers to the decision being easy in the way of ND.

 

[Irish#1]

Kenneth Walker III ran for 5 TDs to say Michigan was or is the better team is suspect based on what?



The committee has said it doesn't matter. Who is the better team, NOW. ND should have won that game and they would win a rematch.



OSU, regardless of their status wants to embarass UM every year, this year will be no exception.

Agree. I don't think Sparty has the horses to pull off the upset, unless they can run all day long and get constant pressure on the QB.

ND and Cincy win out to finish the season. If you think the haters hate ND now, imagine the uproar if the committee puts ND in over Cincy. Oh my goodness!

 

[Free Manera]

I just can't see them putting ND over Cincinnati unless Wisconsin wins the Big 10. Cincinnati will have one of the best wins in the country by the end (over presumably #4 or 5 or 6 ND). However if Wisconsin wins out, then ND has a big win too. That can trump Cincy's big win and along with ND's SOR, bump them up and over.

Otherwise though I feel like the backlash would just be too much and the committee won't want the heat.

 

[Wild Bill]

I know it's not the same team or circumstance but it was literally just this past January that Cincy was up 21-10 against UGA heading into the 4th qtr and gave up 14 unanswered points to lose by 3. I think if Cincy runs the table, they deserve the chance to play in the CFP. Maybe they get pulverized or maybe they put up the best fight Georgia has seen since last January when they played.....Cincinnati.

I don't see a way ND gets in over Cincy if it comes down to choosing between those two teams given the head-to-head status. However, SOS might play a role and if so, Cincy doesn't stand a chance against ND in that regard. Eye test favors ND as well considering ND has been playing much better since it's loss to Cincy. Meanwhile, Cincy has looked pretty pedestrian against some pretty lousy opponents. I think Cincy would ultimately be the pick, but I'm not going to hold my breath. Money and ratings talk.

The only issue here is that Cincy should tighten the gap on SOS in the last few weeks - they have SMU, East Carolina and Houston and we have a couple three win teams. Bumping them in favor of ND after they tighten the gap is too blatant.

The committee would do backflips to find a way to get rid of Cincy in favor of ND but they need something to grab onto so it doesnt look completely ridiculous. Absent something like Ridder getting hurt in a win over Houston that makes him doubtful for the playoffs or cincy just looking like shit and winning the last three (think ND first two weeks of the year), I think they'll begrudgingly take Cincy over ND.

 

[Wild Bill]

OSU, regardless of their status wants to embarass UM every year, this year will be no exception.

If by some miracle scUM beats OSU, I could totally see them losing to wiscy in the BIG championship. I'd cheer them on against OSU if I knew this is how it would end. Would be hilarious.

 

[RDU Irish]

Wisconsin winning the B1G to give us a transitive championship would be glorious. Any Ohio State losses make us more attractive than Oregon - if Buckeyes drop two it almost doesn't matter how Oregon finishes. Who plays the B1G CCG if the Shartans beat OSU then lose to Penn State with OSU then beating Michigan? That is my preferred ending to the regular season.

I like the Big Ten imploding to knock themselves and Oregon out of the playoff and securing a spot for the Irish. Scott Timmerman level deliciousness.

 

[Dale]

If by some miracle scUM beats OSU, I could totally see them losing to wiscy in the BIG championship. I'd cheer them on against OSU if I knew this is how it would end. Would be hilarious.

EDIT: Disregard, total misread, my b

 

[Irish2155]

If by some miracle scUM beats OSU, I could totally see them losing to wiscy in the BIG championship. I'd cheer them on against OSU if I knew this is how it would end. Would be hilarious.

I hear you man but I just couldn’t stomach all that scUM love in Indy. Really don’t want Michigan making a B10 Championship game.

 

[ulukinatme]

I agree with others that have said it should be the most deserving 4, not necessarily the best 4. Too much speculation on best 4 when competition is up and down this year and it's hard to gauge some teams. B1G bent over backwards to get tOSU into the title game last year even though they didn't meet qualifications. They figured that was their best chance at bringing a win home. Instead they got smacked around by 'Bama worse than we did. I call it karma.

I hear you man but I just couldn’t stomach all that scUM love in Indy. Really don’t want Michigan making a B10 Championship game.

Hey, at this point we made it to a conference championship before Michigan did, so fuck 'em!

 

[arndtjc]

It’s a pretty simple path at this point imo. Losses from Oregon (Utah?), Sparty and scUM to OSU, and Bama in the SECCG should be enough to slot ND in the 4th spot. Any loss from Cinci would help the cause as well, the committee can justify ND’s loss as early enough and has come a long way since then.

So if Cinci were to run the table, you’d have 1. UGA 2. OSU 3. Cinci 4. ND

 

[Dale]

It’s a pretty simple path at this point imo. Losses from Oregon (Utah?), Sparty and scUM to OSU, and Bama in the SECCG should be enough to slot ND in the 4th spot. Any loss from Cinci would help the cause as well, the committee can justify ND’s loss as early enough and has come a long way since then.

So if Cinci were to run the table, you’d have 1. UGA 2. OSU 3. Cinci 4. ND

May find it unlikely but Wake and Ok State running the table would also be in consideration

A 11-1 Wake, 11-1 Ok St and 12-0 UC vs a 11-1 ND would really test the Commitee’s value of $$$s versus logic. I really don’t think Wake enters the convo but I the resume would be interesting.

 

[GATTACA!]

Wisconsin winning the B1G to give us a transitive championship would be glorious. Any Ohio State losses make us more attractive than Oregon - if Buckeyes drop two it almost doesn't matter how Oregon finishes. Who plays the B1G CCG if the Shartans beat OSU then lose to Penn State with OSU then beating Michigan? That is my preferred ending to the regular season.

I like the Big Ten imploding to knock themselves and Oregon out of the playoff and securing a spot for the Irish. Scott Timmerman level deliciousness.

While it would be fun to see the Big10 implode I don't know that we actually want that result. That plus Oregon losing again opens the door wide open for 2 SEC teams.

Georgia/MSU/ND/Cincy = Let's go get CBK his statue

Georgia/Oregon/Alabama/ND = Fuck

 

[phork]

I just can't see them putting ND over Cincinnati unless Wisconsin wins the Big 10. Cincinnati will have one of the best wins in the country by the end (over presumably #4 or 5 or 6 ND). However if Wisconsin wins out, then ND has a big win too. That can trump Cincy's big win and along with ND's SOR, bump them up and over.

Otherwise though I feel like the backlash would just be too much and the committee won't want the heat.

The committee has stated, and showed (UM/MSU) they will slot in the team they think is better. ND is better now than when they played Cincy, and really shouldn't have lost that game but turnovers kill you and that was the tale of that game.

 

[Free Manera]

The committee has stated, and showed (UM/MSU) they will slot in the team they think is better. ND is better now than when they played Cincy, and really shouldn't have lost that game but turnovers kill you and that was the tale of that game.

The better team thing is a slippery slope because you very easily get into the "why even play the games" situation then. Say Bama loses to UGA, should they still get in ahead of ND because they are the better team? They have looked better outside of their losses, and they have better players and better coaches. But what's the point of it all then? The games should matter.

Cinicinnati will have beaten the best team on their schedule, on the road, by two scores and beaten everyone else they played. ND just doesn't have a good enough win unless Wisconsin wins out. I mean it would be cool and everything but it just seems wrong.

 

[dankgesang]

The committee has stated, and showed (UM/MSU) they will slot in the team they think is better. ND is better now than when they played Cincy, and really shouldn't have lost that game but turnovers kill you and that was the tale of that game.

Respectfully, it was the like 3 yards per play difference that killed us in that game. It wasn't as close as the score indicated. Maybe the offense is leagues better now that we're supposedly running tempo all the time with Coan, but I'm not convinced, at least not to the extent that you ought to talk about putting us in over Cincy.

 

[RDU Irish]

The better team thing is a slippery slope because you very easily get into the "why even play the games" situation then. Say Bama loses to UGA, should they still get in ahead of ND because they are the better team? They have looked better outside of their losses, and they have better players and better coaches. But what's the point of it all then? The games should matter.

Cinicinnati will have beaten the best team on their schedule, on the road, by two scores and beaten everyone else they played. ND just doesn't have a good enough win unless Wisconsin wins out. I mean it would be cool and everything but it just seems wrong.

Its worse than a slippery slope, it is pure BS. What is to prevent arbitrarily putting in 4 SEC teams then? No - you play the path in front of you - win them all and you should be in for any remotely respectable team (Cincy included). 1 loss teams should not jump 0 loss teams just as 2 loss teams should not jump 1 loss teams. Also not a fan of the "best win is more important than your worst loss" mentality. Oregon losing to Stanford is worse than ND losing to Cincy even though their win over OSU is better than whatever TF NDs best win is. If 1993 Notre Dame gives up a championship to Bobby Bowden then that rule should be set in stone by now.

 

[NDohio]

Again, I am not saying that it is the correct decision, it is the decision I expect the committee to make...


Strength of Schedule rank of 0-loss teams and 1-loss P5s, according to expected losses an elite team would have against their schedule to date, per FEI:
28. Bama
31. Michigan
36. ND
39. Okla St
43. Oregon
45. UGA
52. Ohio St
56. Mich St
64. Wake
67. Oklahoma
106. Cincy
125. UTSA

5+ wins vs FEI top-60 opponents:
6-0 Georgia
6-1 Alabama, Notre Dame
6-2 Ole Miss
5-0 Oregon
5-1 Wake Forest


Wins Above Average through Week 11 (comparing actual wins to expected wins an average team would have against the same schedule) per FEI:
+5.71 Georgia
+5.16 ND
+4.34 Ohio St
+4.31 Michigan
+4.29 Oklahoma St
+4.26 Alabama
+4.16 Michigan St
+4.13 Ole Miss
+4.08 Wake
+3.89 Oregon

 

[BeatSC]

I feel since this thread has so many smart guys on it we are over thinking and over analyzing this. Here’s the thread creator and believe from the beginnings POV today:

All assumptions are made based on decent wins the next two weeks by ND of course:

Cincy loses we jump them. If they don’t we won’t.
No two loss team gets in ahead of us.
Whoever wins Big 10,12 or PAC 12 is in with one loss but out with two. Ok state would need to win all games convincingly.

things that could happen to eliminate too much debate would be:

Oregon loses a game
UM loses a game
Cincy loses a game
Ok & Ok st lose a game
MSU lose a game
Ohio State loses a game
Bama loses a game
GA loses 2 games
Wake loses a game

Every one of these teams plays in games where they could lose 1-2 more times. Unlikely that we achieve this royal flush (I like the flush of their seasons) but I think enough can happen for us to basically back in. I think despite getting F’d in the original CFP we have been pegged as the underdog little engine that could. It should be taken into consideration that everyone circles a game with ND in their calendar as one of the biggest if not the biggest games of their season. We also had most of our opponents on a ye to prepare for us. I’d also like to see Hamilton play another game and go out as a captain on the field and as a winner.

Is any of this wrong? Answer is NO! CFP yes NY6 NO!

 

[Irish2155]

“If you look at it statistically”. Lol. What statistic is more important than a head to head? MSU BEAT Michigan, again. They beat them all the time.

Just don’t understand nor trust/believe the BS that’s spewed from these folks.

I know that situation will play itself out. But good lord, loosing all credibility here feeding folks with nonsense

 

[GATTACA!]

“If you look at it statistically”. Lol. What statistic is more important than a head to head? MSU BEAT Michigan, again. They beat them all the time.

Just don’t understand nor trust/believe the BS that’s spewed from these folks.

I know that situation will play itself out. But good lord, loosing all credibility here feeding folks with nonsense

And MSU was ahead of Michigan after that game. It’s not Michigan’s fault MSU went out and lost the next week. Is everyone just supposed to drop Michigan along with MSU in solidarity whenever MSU loses for the rest of the season?

 

[Irish2155]

And MSU was ahead of Michigan after that game. It’s not Michigan’s fault MSU went out and lost the next week. Is everyone just supposed to drop Michigan along with MSU in solidarity whenever MSU loses for the rest of the season?

They’re 6 and 7, bro. When splitting hairs the head to head should absolutely be a determining factor.

 

[Bishop2b5]

What statistic is more important than a head to head? MSU BEAT Michigan, again.

Rankings are based on a team's entire body of work, not just the result of one game.