Path to the CFP?

[dad4aa]

What are you even talking about? Who said anything about putting anyone in the playoffs just based on how talented their roster is? Nobody said anything about giving anyone a national championship based on talent instead of winning it on the field. Who said anything about letting anyone in with back-to-back losses or even two losses? We all understand that on-the-field performance is what matters. If that's what you got from my post, you misread it completely.

You did. You said if Bama lost a close SECCG they should be in. Would that not be two losses?

You also just said “winning it on the field” yet you want a 2-loss Bama in over an undefeated Cincy. Why, because they pass the “eye-test”?

The CFP should not be about putting the “best” 4 teams in the playoffs bc that is too subjective. It should be about putting the best 4 that EARNED the right to be there. 2 losses, IMO, automatically takes you out of the running unless there are not enough undefeated or 1-loss teams. Otherwise, the regular season is meaningless.

 

[Bishop2b5]

You did. You said if Bama lost a close SECCG they should be in. Would that not be two losses?

You also just said “winning it on the field” yet you want a 2-loss Bama in over an undefeated Cincy. Why, because they pass the “eye-test”?

The CFP should not be about putting the “best” 4 teams in the playoffs bc that is too subjective. It should be about putting the best 4 that EARNED the right to be there. 2 losses, IMO, automatically takes you out of the running unless there are not enough undefeated or 1-loss teams. Otherwise, the regular season is meaningless.

I wasn't talking of Bama getting in if they lost the SECCG. I was referring to Georgia, which was what the original OP said would happen if Bama beat them. The CFP should be 100% about putting the best 4 teams in! That's EXACTLY what it was set up for and the committee mandated to do. It's what their mission is. It's what they've said they're trying their best to do every single year! It's not about prettiest resume or most deserving or best TV draw or best 4 conference champions or anything else other than the 4 best teams as determined by a committee of experts. Since all 130 or so teams don't play each other every year, there's no way to accurately decide the best 4 strictly on W-L against each other. There has to be some subjective judgement. You could go with a computer system, but which criteria you choose for your algorithm and how each is weighted is still quite subjective and we saw the problems with that during the BCS era. The committee has made it abundantly clear that their goal is to determine the 4 teams most likely to beat anyone else on a neutral field, and that they use a LOT of different criteria to determine that, not just one or two narrow, no context, data points, which is what way too many in this forum do.

 

[Irish#1]

First bolded - Right now, both polls, the playoff committee, and most power rankings have Georgia and Bama 1 & 2. Virtually all of the experts and knowledgeable fans who've watched them play also think they're the two best teams in the country. If they meet in the SECCG and it's a close game, would there be any reason to think they weren't still the two best teams? I get that you and lots of other people are tired of the same teams in the playoffs, but it's about putting the best teams in, not the best who haven't been in awhile, nor giving the also-rans a chance. It's their job to hire better coaches, recruit better, execute better, and get better. Don't forget, it hasn't been that long since both Georgia and Bama were far from being elite and teams like USC and Florida and Texas were the top programs. Bama & Georgia (and a few others) worked hard, made the right hires, and earned their way to the top.

Second bolded - What, exactly, has the SEC been allowed to do that is against the rules or that other conferences have been prohibited from doing? Recruit better? Develop better? Hire better coaches?

15 years for Alabama. I'd say that's been a while.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/ESPNCFB/status/1459990010535546881?s=20[/TWEET]

 

[rtrn2glory]

That shows that they are completely devaluing Cincy's win over us like Oregon's over OSU. In both cases, I think the losing team is better than the team that won, but at the end of the day what are talking about here? Why even play the game if in the end it totally holds no clout to the committee. It's absolutely ridiculous to think that we'd get in over Cincy if they end up undefeated and for OSU to get in and be ranked over Oregon if both end up with 1 loss. This committee has totally fudged up the system. They need to go to the new format asap.

 

[NDPhilly]

Our win over UVA actually helped us tremendously in the "advanced" stats as they don't take into account things like Armstrong being out.

Our FPI ranking jumped to #9 from #14 and our strength of record is up to #3. Can't find an updated SP+ or F+ rankings yet but imagine we made big strides their as well.

 

[Mavericknyc1980]

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/ESPNCFB/status/1459990010535546881?s=20[/TWEET]

Does this mean we have a shot?

 

[Irish2155]

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/ESPNCFB/status/1459990010535546881?s=20[/TWEET]

Looks promising

 

[Bishop2b5]

15 years for Alabama. I'd say that's been a while.

I'm in my 60's. 15 years doesn't seem very long. The Shula and DuBose years still seem almost recent. I remember seeing Namath play while he was still in college. That's how old I am!

 

[GowerND11]

Does this mean we have a shot?

*sigh* yes...

 

[House16]

That shows that they are completely devaluing Cincy's win over us like Oregon's over OSU. In both cases, I think the losing team is better than the team that won, but at the end of the day what are talking about here? Why even play the game if in the end it totally holds no clout to the committee. It's absolutely ridiculous to think that we'd get in over Cincy if they end up undefeated and for OSU to get in and be ranked over Oregon if both end up with 1 loss. This committee has totally fudged up the system. They need to go to the new format asap.

I'll keep banging this drum until my hands hurt. The idea that we want the four best teams is ludicrous. We obviously, obviously want the four most deserving teams. The result of a close game doesn't have much effect on who would be favored on a neutral field next week (best team) but has a ton of effect on who has the best resume. If you just want the four best teams you can almost just lock in the playoff on signing day.

 

[BeatSC]

I would say the one loss team that gets in should have an evaluation of their loss and when it occurred and to who and how they have bounced back since that loss. I think we currently have an argument for the best loss if there is such a thing (and there is) and Oregon has the worst loss to Stanford. Let’s hope the dominoes fall our way because if we win out we should be really close to getting in or in. #3 is just so much better than #4 assuming GA is still #1. Looking for all around team dominance these last two games. I think green Jerseys for senior day would be a nice reward for a team that has so far exceeded most peoples expectations (not mine). We definitely jump a one loss Cincy and get in over a two loss Bama. What makes me nervous is Ok State winning out and jumping us.

At least our boys have held up their end of this bargain to keep this thread alive by winning every week since I started it. Despite my dislike for so many reps for Coan we have done great when you consider all the injuries to this squad. Guys like me want more lopsided wins but Kelly has earned his big bucks. 11-12 wins was not predicted by many out there. Maybe goons like Herbie will stop underestimating us.

 

[ACamp1900]

I'll keep banging this drum until my hands hurt. The idea that we want the four best teams is ludicrous. We obviously, obviously want the four most deserving teams. The result of a close game doesn't have much effect on who would be favored on a neutral field next week (best team) but has a ton of effect on who has the best resume. If you just want the four best teams you can almost just lock in the playoff on signing day.

Best teams can be heavily influenced with bias etc... agreed it should be most deserving. This shouldn't be hard.

 

[Rogue219]

Beating GT and Stanford is the only path ND can control. After that you sit back and see what happens. Somebody ahead of them is going to lose one way or the other. It is a matter of who and when.

I endorse chaos everywhere but in South Bend and Palo Alto this month.

 

[IRISHMAN]

NDs path to the National Championship game.

1. ND finishes the season at 11-1.
2. The Oklahoma lose moves ND up to #8.
3. Oregon looses to Utah moving ND up to #7.
4. OSU beats both UM & MSU moving ND up to #5.
5. Wisconsin beats OSU in the Big10 championship game moving ND up to #4.
6. Georgia beats Bama in the SEC championship game moving ND up to #3.
7. ND beats #2 Cincy in the 1st round of the playoffs moving ND to the championship game.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

NDs path to the National Championship game.

1. ND finishes the season at 11-1.
2. The Oklahoma lose moves ND up to #8.
3. Oregon looses to Utah moving ND up to #7.
4. OSU beats both UM & MSU moving ND up to #5.
5. Wisconsin beats OSU in the Big10 championship game moving ND up to #4.
6. Georgia beats Bama in the SEC championship game moving ND up to #3.
7. ND beats #2 Cincy in the 1st round of the playoffs moving ND to the championship game.

The committee is allowed to re-seed in order to avoid rematches. They may not do it for a game played back on October 2nd but there's not enough precedent to know.

 

[Rogue219]

5. Wisconsin beats OSU in the Big10 championship game moving ND up to #4.

Thoughts and prayers, man.

 

[Wild Bill]

Thoughts and prayers, man.

I agree, it's unlikely but OSU has been far from great in the title game and Wiscy has looked like a different team the last few weeks. Wiscy has played them tough the last couple times they played them in the BIG title game too. I think OSU was down double digits at half in 2019, and Wiscy shit their pants in the 4th quarter. NW played tough against them last year and OSU pulled away in the 2nd half. Those OSU teams look better than this one and it's been a wild year. Wouldn't count on it but who knows.

 

[IRISHMAN]

NDs path to the National Championship game.

1. ND finishes the season at 11-1.
2. The Oklahoma lose moves ND up to #8.
3. Oregon looses to Utah moving ND up to #7.
4. OSU beats both UM & MSU moving ND up to #5.
5. Wisconsin beats OSU in the Big10 championship game moving ND up to #4.
6. Georgia beats Bama in the SEC championship game moving ND up to #3.
7. ND beats #2 Cincy in the 1st round of the playoffs moving ND to the championship game.

yeah this is probably the one scenario that may not come true but the rest seem to be possible.

 

[NDdomer2]

The committee is allowed to re-seed in order to avoid rematches. They may not do it for a game played back on October 2nd but there's not enough precedent to know.

Yes but the question for the committee becomes who do you want to have your national championship game.

In the scenario above I would imagine the final four would look like Georgia, Cincy, ND, Oregon.

Georgia vs ND is the clear runaway leader for biggest draw. Georgia Oregon second. ND Oregon third anything including cincy from there on.

Doubtful they want a rematch of ND cincy in champion ship. You can guarantee that by putting them in a semi. You can guarantee ND/Oregon in final if you put them in semifinal.

So would committee just absolutely baptize Cincy by making them #4 over a team they beat and send them to play Georgia first round in a rematch of last years Peach Bowl and guarantee themselves one of ND/Oregon while risking potential ND Cincy rematch in the Natty?

Or would you take a risk and try and set up a Georgia ND match up? Georgia vs Oregon and ND vs Cincy? This could give you a even less favorable Cincy in the national championship and forever fuel the non power 5 talk as well.

Something makes me think in any scenario Cincy is in the final four they are getting the top seed.

THey could rest on the fact that we beat Wisconsin neutral site who just won the BIG against OSU who lost to Oregon.

 

[Free Manera]

I feel like the most likely scenario is Bama beats UGA and OSU wins out. So all three are in and that leaves one spot for Oregon, Cincy, ND. Oregon is going to lose to Utah one out of the two times they play.

And the committee is going to have to pick ND vs. Cincinnati. Yikes lol.

 

[NDdomer2]

I feel like the most likely scenario is Bama beats UGA and OSU wins out. So all three are in and that leaves one spot for Oregon, Cincy, ND. Oregon is going to lose to Utah one out of the two times they play.

And the committee is going to have to pick ND vs. Cincinnati. Yikes lol.

i agree those 3 seem likely. conventional wisdom says you have to pick cincy with the head to head and with ND being "independent" they cant really talk power 5 conf vs non. If they picked ND in this scenario it is going to be based on "recent play eye test" where weve been beating up on chumps and Cincy has not looked great vs their own non power 5 conf.

regardless i think they would see it as an opportunity to let a non power 5 in, face Georgia and get pulverized ending this discussion.

 

[Free Manera]

i agree those 3 seem likely. conventional wisdom says you have to pick cincy with the head to head and with ND being "independent" they cant really talk power 5 conf vs non. If they picked ND in this scenario it is going to be based on "recent play eye test" where weve been beating up on chumps and Cincy has not looked great vs their own non power 5 conf.

regardless i think they would see it as an opportunity to let a non power 5 in, face Georgia and get pulverized ending this discussion.

I think I have heard that the committee doesn't have to abide by head-to-head, but if all else is equal, they will. So, is all else equal between ND and Cincinnati? Probably is pretty close honestly. This might be the year that no conference championship gets us.

 

[NDohio]

I really don't think the committee wants a G5 school in the playoffs. If it comes down to ND or Cinci I truly believe that ND would get the nod. I know ND lost to them, but the committee obviously doesn't care about that (see Michigan/Michigan State).

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I know it's not the same team or circumstance but it was literally just this past January that Cincy was up 21-10 against UGA heading into the 4th qtr and gave up 14 unanswered points to lose by 3. I think if Cincy runs the table, they deserve the chance to play in the CFP. Maybe they get pulverized or maybe they put up the best fight Georgia has seen since last January when they played.....Cincinnati.

I don't see a way ND gets in over Cincy if it comes down to choosing between those two teams given the head-to-head status. However, SOS might play a role and if so, Cincy doesn't stand a chance against ND in that regard. Eye test favors ND as well considering ND has been playing much better since it's loss to Cincy. Meanwhile, Cincy has looked pretty pedestrian against some pretty lousy opponents. I think Cincy would ultimately be the pick, but I'm not going to hold my breath. Money and ratings talk.

 

[NDohio]

I know it's not the same team or circumstance but it was literally just this past January that Cincy was up 21-10 against UGA heading into the 4th qtr and gave up 14 unanswered points to lose by 3. I think if Cincy runs the table, they deserve the chance to play in the CFP. Maybe they get pulverized or maybe they put up the best fight Georgia has seen since last January when they played.....Cincinnati.

I don't see a way ND gets in over Cincy if it comes down to choosing between those two teams given the head-to-head status. However, SOS might play a role and if so, Cincy doesn't stand a chance against ND in that regard. Eye test favors ND as well considering ND has been playing much better since it's loss to Cincy. Meanwhile, Cincy has looked pretty pedestrian against some pretty lousy opponents. I think Cincy would ultimately be the pick, but I'm not going to hold my breath. Money and ratings talk.

The Committee literally just ranked Michigan ahead of Michigan State NINE days after Michigan State beat Michigan on the field. Nine Days! The committee thinks Michigan is the better team....

 

[ACamp1900]

The Committee literally just ranked Michigan ahead of Michigan State NINE days after Michigan State beat Michigan on the field. Nine Days! The committee thinks Michigan is the better team....

Or will bring more eye balls, money,... etc...

 

[NDohio]

Or will bring more eye balls, money,... etc...

Yep. Just like ND over Cinci.

 

[dankgesang]

The Committee literally just ranked Michigan ahead of Michigan State NINE days after Michigan State beat Michigan on the field. Nine Days! The committee thinks Michigan is the better team....

Michigan lost by 4 in East Lansing, with some conspicuously shoddy review work by the officials. We got beat up at home. These things are not alike.

 

[ACamp1900]

Yep. Just like ND over Cinci.

Yep, and it's bullshit... I'm for taking our shots, playoff or not,... but as objectively as I can,... Cinci and MSU should be in over us and scUM if all remains as it is... this whole thing is stupid imo.