Oct 26 | Michigan

[ThePiombino]

We have Clark Lea.

We also have Chip Long.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

We also have Chip Long.

He did fine against them a year ago with Brandon Wimbush under center.

 

[Wingman Ray]

Makes you wonder what Vegas knows to open there. Don’t forget, this game will feature a B1G officiating crew & they just got “called out” for the bad calls scUM received vs the bad no-calls for PSU.

I thought visitor brought the ref squad? Shouldnt it be a ACC ref team then? How did this happen?

 

[IrishLion]

We have Clark Lea.

This man gets it.

ND is better on the OL.

ND is better on the DL.

Clark Lea gets to scheme against a first-time OC that miiiight be finding his stride... but still calls plays for a team that turns the ball over a lot.

As long as Ian hits the layups and doesn't turn the ball over, ND wins by 10+

 

[IrishLax]

I don’t know about CFB but my gambler friend showed me there are multiple books who just use Ken Pomeroy’s ratings for college basketball. He can tell you what the lines will be before they’re posted.

I wouldn’t be shocked if they center on SP+ since it’s been around long enough to have a track record.

Yes, this is basically what happens. You'll notice that Bill Connelly's project point spreads based on S&P are within ~2 point of the opening line 95%+ of the time. Most use a combination of systems and human judgment in their handicapping, especially early in the season when no one knows anything.

 

[irish4ever]

I thought visitor brought the ref squad? Shouldnt it be a ACC ref team then? How did this happen?

I thought that as well.

 

[ThePiombino]

He did fine against them a year ago with Brandon Wimbush under center.

He did? I guess I remember if differently -- I recall him going into a shell after going up 18 in the 1st half. 3 total pts scored in the 2nd half, went away from what worked in the 1st.

Allow me to remind you of our final 8 drive results:

8) PUNT
7) INT
6) PUNT
5) FG
4) PUNT
3) PUNT
2) PUNT
1) END OF GAME

Does that really give you faith in Long?

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

He did? I guess I remember if differently -- I recall him going into a shell after going up 18 in the 1st half. 3 total pts scored in the 2nd half, went away from what worked in the 1st.

Allow me to remind you of our final 8 drive results:

8) PUNT
7) INT
6) PUNT
5) FG
4) PUNT
3) PUNT
2) PUNT
1) END OF GAME

Does that really give you faith in Long?

IIRC, there were only 7 passing attempts that whole second half. I think that approach was a result of strategy not tactics.

 

[IrishLax]

I thought that as well.

Against Michigan, home team gets home refs. ND had ACC refs in the last matchup. That's why ND has so often gotten hosed on calls @Michigan... incentive to protect their team/conference plus normal home field advantage impacting calls.

 

[ThePiombino]

IIRC, there were only 7 passing attempts that whole second half. I think that approach was a result of strategy not tactics.

As I said -- he went into a shell, for whatever reason. Can't afford that this week. UM's offense looks more capable of being able to make chunk plays suddenly. I think most would agree that some of Long's play calling in the 2nd half of the SC game almost came back to bite us. I just don't trust him.

 

[Irish#1]

We also have Chip Long.

Long has his moments when his play calling disappears, but he's been pretty good when the pressure ramps up. I expect him to open the game with a nice series.

 

[BabyIrish]

This man gets it.

ND is better on the OL.

ND is better on the DL.

Clark Lea gets to scheme against a first-time OC that miiiight be finding his stride... but still calls plays for a team that turns the ball over a lot.

As long as Ian hits the layups and doesn't turn the ball over, ND wins by 10+

Lea is a genius and everyone had been saying as much all year up until the USC game, and most were on board with that through the first half. He's going to dominate Gattis. Michigan will be lucky to score 2 TD's on us.

 

[koonja]

I expect Long to come out looking really good on first ~12 plays.

Then lay a turd sandwich in the 2nd half.

 

[NorthDakota]

I expect Long to come out looking really good on first ~12 plays.

Then lay a turd sandwich in the 2nd half.

You mean when he runs Kelly's script lmao...

We be up 14-0 7 minutes into the game and struggle the rest lmaooo

 

[Irishize]

It's not like he's not going to say they're a bunch of punks. Guarantee you that Georgia's stadium is louder than Michigan's, if for no other reason that it has a better design to contain noise levels. The Big Toilet Bowl is rather spread out and the noise escapes upward, not to mention the fans are further from the field in the upper decks.

Yeah, I’ve been hearing that for years. As big as Michigan’s stadium is, it rarely gets overwhelmingly loud there. So you’re right, BK probably just spitting coachspeak.

 

[Irishize]

Both teams have weird data points. Michigan is #14 in SP+, Notre Dame is #19. Then you tack on 3 points for home field and that's how you get to -4 as an opener. Baked in to all of that is the fact that Michigan's offense being ranked #52 is clearly based on their early season results and not particularly accurate, but similarly is their defense accurately evaluated at #4?

Vegas doesn't use SP+ or any other system, per se, in evaluating games for setting initial lines... but they do consider all available information. In this case I don't think they expected the public to be such Michigan haters, which is why the line has already moved 3 points. When you consider pre-season perception to now, what you really have to look at is that the line has almost moved a full TD from August... mainly because Michigan is significantly worse than expected on offense, and ND is just about as good as their pre-season rankings. Do I believe their offense is still as bad as we saw against Army, Iowa, and Wisconsin? No, I don't. I think the last two weeks they have shown improvement in their running game, and then in the second half against Penn State finally showcased an efficient passing game. And that's the main reason I expect this to be a tough one. Through week 5, I would have been extremely optimistic about ND's ability to shut down their offense.

The million dollar question that will be answered late Saturday night is “Does ND & UM continue to play like the 2nd half of their most recent game or was that just an anomaly?”

I wasn’t too concerned w/ the way SC ran up yardage & points late b/c I assumed Lea was playing clock and willing to bend. The press, however; seems invigorated that Meatchicken has turned a corner after their ‘almost’ comeback this past Saturday.

 

[Irishize]

Against Michigan, home team gets home refs. ND had ACC refs in the last matchup. That's why ND has so often gotten hosed on calls @Michigan... incentive to protect their team/conference plus normal home field advantage impacting calls.

Armando Allen agrees w/ this post.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

Armando Allen agrees w/ this post.

Golden Tate 2009 as well. His foot was fu*kin down

 

[Luckylucci]

This man gets it.

ND is better on the OL.

ND is better on the DL.

Clark Lea gets to scheme against a first-time OC that miiiight be finding his stride... but still calls plays for a team that turns the ball over a lot.

As long as Ian hits the layups and doesn't turn the ball over, ND wins by 10+

Yep. Better on both lines. Have Clark Lea with a bye. Running game that has been terrific. That seems like a recipe for road success.

I also think we have an ace for this defense and that is if they want to be super aggressive to stop the run (they love to run blitz) we have options to beat them.

 

[Irish#1]

The million dollar question that will be answered late Saturday night is “Does ND & UM continue to play like the 2nd half of their most recent game or was that just an anomaly?”

I wasn’t too concerned w/ the way SC ran up yardage & points late b/c I assumed Lea was playing clock and willing to bend. The press, however; seems invigorated that Meatchicken has turned a corner after their ‘almost’ comeback this past Saturday.

Same press that had them top 10 and possible CF playoff team at the beginning of the year?

 

[Wingman Ray]

An agressive run blitzing defense is trumped by dump passes to TE's and Mich has not faced TE's like the ones ND has. If Im the OC, I run double tight on this one and move it right down the field on short seems to the TEs until their LBs stick with them on coverage which opens the run game.

First play out of the gate needs to be TE seams for 6 when Mich is red dog blitzing to shut the run down. Question is, does BK get focused on cock measuring to force the run game early on and waste 2-3 possessions or not?

 

[irishtrooper]

Same press that had them top 10 and possible CF playoff team at the beginning of the year?

I do sort of agree that the press has a desire to see any sign of them showing how “un-wrong” they were with the prediction of CFP before the season. I also feel that the media still has that feeling the Harbaugh gets it going at some point. Even though he’s disappointed again, and again and again and again and again. Let’s face it, he laid tremendous foundations for Shaw’s success and was an amazing success with the 49ers( one could argue it was sort of gimmicky and he was right place/right time, but SF was a mess before his arrival). Couple that with his unique personality and over the top mannerisms to go along with the popularity he had as a pro QB with a “name” team like the Bears w/Ditka. All of that combines with the returning home/conquering hero angle and the story writes itself. The only hang up is the results (admittedly pretty good for a program that hasn’t been very relevant in recent history with Hoke and RichRod) haven’t lined up with the narrative. I feel it’s just like when a hyped young player gets chance after chance even though they’ve really never deserved it since the initial thing that gave them hype (Christian Hackenburg/ Marc Sanchez/ Lawrence Phillips from Nebraska back in the day jump in my mind). Media people look at Harbaugh and the recruits they bring in to a historically important, name brand program and their bias tells them that it’s only a matter of time..... I would argue a lot of our fans this week are suffering from a similar affliction.

 

[rtrn2glory]

i don't like our lack of ability to make explosive plays on offense. I know they don't have much either, but i feel like if we had this we'd win by double digit's easily. That's how OSU killed them last year. They burnt them in their man to man with explosive playmakers.

we don't have any of those.

 

[ThePiombino]

i don't like our lack of ability to make explosive plays on offense. I know they don't have much either, but i feel like if we had this we'd win by double digit's easily. That's how OSU killed them last year. They burnt them in their man to man with explosive playmakers.

we don't have any of those.

That's not true. We DO have playmakers, we just don't have the QB to get it to them.

 

[ACamp1900]

i don't like our lack of ability to make explosive plays on offense. I know they don't have much either, but i feel like if we had this we'd win by double digit's easily. That's how OSU killed them last year. They burnt them in their man to man with explosive playmakers.

we don't have any of those.

Did I miss Cole Kmet's transfer??

 

[Luckylucci]

i don't like our lack of ability to make explosive plays on offense. I know they don't have much either, but i feel like if we had this we'd win by double digit's easily. That's how OSU killed them last year. They burnt them in their man to man with explosive playmakers.

we don't have any of those.

Well, we have a TE that averaged 12 yds/rec. against UGA and 12.6 on the season. I'd call that explosive. We have a WR that's avg. 14.6 yds/rec which is more than both Black and DPJ. Tony Jones Jr. is avg. 7yds/rush. That's more than any RB on UM's roster and not really that close.

 

[Irish#1]

In reference to scUM passing like USC.

From BK......"“This one requires, from our perspective, less of a change to our structure than it did preparing for USC.”

 

[ColinKSU]

This Ohio State team looks at this Michigan team and believes they will beat them by as many points as they want on any field in the country. That game is going to be an absolute bloodbath in a few weeks. Now, this Notre Dame team isn't in Ohio State's league, but they have more than enough talent and coaching to beat this Michigan team.

I hope the ND players don't have the same mindset that fans and ND media seem to this week. If they can't beat Michigan, then I'm not sure where the program is these days in comparison to the tippy-top teams in the country. Because I promise you Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma and Ohio State wouldn't sweat Harbaugh's group.

 

[ulukinatme]

Guys, guys, there's so much analytical nonsense on this page. This doesn't have to be complicated. The important thing to remember: fuck Michigan.

 

[ACamp1900]

fuck Michigan.

How you can even bring yourself to type that nasty word I'll never know,... please try and clean it up moving forward... it's "meat-chicken".... okay?