Oct 26 | Michigan

[Luckylucci]

Just finished the I.I. podcast.

Both Tim Prister and Pete Sampson pick Michigan. Omalley is not unveiling his pick until Thursday, but hinted as if it will also be Michigan.

They must also have missed the memo of how good ND is and how bad Michigan is.

They also followed everyone else and picked ND to get blown out by UGA. These guys are trend followers not setters. It's easier to be wrong and site the Vegas spread than be labeled a homer if we lose.

 

[EvilleIrish]

Im going to say it again and reap more hate:

No Playoff caliber team would ever be concerned with playing Michigan. Any true playoff team would bury Mich by halftime and call in the backups to feast. The fact that the line is what it is and people are seriously concerned over Michigan shows ND is no way ready for the big time show.

So just to be clear, you don’t think ND is a playoff team? You haven’t mentioned it 643 times.

 

[Crazy Balki]

Michigan hasn't beaten anyone. But that's kind of my point - ND and Michigan are in the same category this year. Good teams, but not great.

And they're at home and going to let it all out after what happened Saturday. For every slight we take at Patterson we can take one at Book. And the Shea I saw Saturday I'd take 10/10 times over Book.

We can pick on their man to man defense strategy, and they can pick on the fact that Troy Pride is our best corner and he's easy money on back shoulder throws. And they have 3-Chase Claypool's + a Ronnie Bell to throw those too.

Neither team is great. Both are good. One is at home, is the Vegas favorite, and has the ND beat-writers picking them to win.

Neither team is great, but one is noticeably better than the other. Hint, it's not Michigan.

They don't have 3 Chase Claypool's. DPJ and Black aren't close to Claypool's size, nor are they close to as good. They both have been disappointing. Collins, I agree.

Book is better than Patterson. You mention how he looked against Penn State. I've mentioned this before. He was okay, but far from great. Book was arguably as good or better against Georgia, and Georgia's defense is better than Penn State's.

 

[Sherm Sticky]

They also followed everyone else and picked ND to get blown out by UGA. These guys are trend followers not setters. It's easier to be wrong and site the Vegas spread than be labeled a homer if we lose.

Line moved from Michigan -7.5 to -1.5 in 24 hours. You get 3 points for being at home, so on a neutral field ND would be favored. ESPN Power Index has ND winning 62.2%.

 

[pumpdog20]

Michigan was fucked when the game got put on the schedule. Then ND got real good. Then Michigan got shitty. And now Vegas just fucked Michigan even more by making them the "favorite".

Fuck Michigan, we're rolling that ass.

 

[Irish#1]

Just finished the I.I. podcast.

Both Tim Prister and Pete Sampson pick Michigan. Omalley is not unveiling his pick until Thursday, but hinted as if it will also be Michigan.

They must also have missed the memo of how good ND is and how bad Michigan is.

Except for one game, I’m perfect in my predictions last year and this year. What’s your point?

Who has a better defensive line?

Who has a better offensive line?

 

[IrishLax]

Line moved from Michigan -7.5 to -1.5 in 24 hours. You get 3 points for being at home, so on a neutral field ND would be favored. ESPN Power Index has ND winning 62.2%.

Small correction, it was never 7.5. That was a pre-season line. The opening line was 4 or 3.5 in most places.

 

[ACamp1900]

Except for one game, I’m perfect in my predictions last year and this year.

 

[koonja]

Except for one game, I’m perfect in my predictions last year and this year. What’s your point?

Who has a better defensive line?

Who has a better offensive line?

1) I'm not sure.

2) ND

 

[ND88]

I’m rooting for Book to prove ND fans wrong.... that’s fu*king sad.

I get that he’s not the next coming of Christ, but wtf. No respect for the guy. He deserves better.

Patterbum is NOT a better QB than Book. He’s done NOTHING as QB at Michigan. He had one good half.

And it was versus fvcking Penn State. They will be irrelevant by season’s end like usual. They will go ghost after OSU skull****s them.

Our fanbase is weak as sh*t sometimes.

I want a self-imposed week ban for any of you predicting a Michigan win.

If ND loses, I’ll do the same.

(Peace, everyone. This is all just fun and games. But Michigan ... c’mon.)

 

[koonja]

I’m rooting for Book to prove ND fans wrong.... that’s fu*king sad.

I get that he’s not the next coming of Christ, but wtf. No respect for the guy. He deserves better.

Patterbum is NOT a better QB than Book. He’s done NOTHING as QB at Michigan. He had one good half.

And it was versus fvcking Penn State. They will be irrelevant by season’s end like usual. They will go ghost after OSU skull****s them.

Our fanbase is weak as sh*t sometimes.

I want a self-imposed week ban for any of you predicting a Michigan win.

If ND loses, I’ll do the same.

(Peace, everyone. This is all just fun and games. But Michigan ... c’mon.)

I'm updating my prediction to ND 31 UM 21 after reading this.

Fuck Michigan

 

[NorthDakota]

I'll take ND by 10. But I will pull much hair throughout the game. Late field goal puts it away.

 

[ND88]

I'm updating my prediction to ND 31 UM 21 after reading this.

Fuck Michigan

Hell ya! We live for this sh*t, man.

 

[Irishize]

They also followed everyone else and picked ND to get blown out by UGA. These guys are trend followers not setters. It's easier to be wrong and site the Vegas spread than be labeled a homer if we lose.

I listened to the pod too. It wasn’t that dramatic. They all acknowledged both teams are equally talented to the point that it comes down to home field advantage. Sampson said if he had to pick today, he’d go w/ scUM. Prister said if he looked at both teams on paper w/o knowing who was who, he’d pick scUM...also noting home field advantage. That means if they were playing in South Bend, they’d all be picking the Irish.

It’s just an opinion. They all three want ND to win.

 

[NDohio]

Patterson vs Book? Seriously?

Patterson is a pu$$y. He hates contact and refuses to keep the ball on any QB/RB options...he panics when pressure comes at him...and chokes under pressure.

Book will stick his nose in the middle of a linebacker's chest to get the first down...he will play with a broken rib...and he rises to the occasion in most instances when the team needs a first down or a win.

Sheesh...

 

[BabyIrish]

I’m rooting for Book to prove ND fans wrong.... that’s fu*king sad.

I get that he’s not the next coming of Christ, but wtf. No respect for the guy. He deserves better.

Patterbum is NOT a better QB than Book. He’s done NOTHING as QB at Michigan. He had one good half.

And it was versus fvcking Penn State. They will be irrelevant by season’s end like usual. They will go ghost after OSU skull****s them.

Our fanbase is weak as sh*t sometimes.

I want a self-imposed week ban for any of you predicting a Michigan win.

If ND loses, I’ll do the same.

(Peace, everyone. This is all just fun and games. But Michigan ... c’mon.)

Love it! The week leading up to the USC game almost everyone states unequivocally that they were more worried about USC than Michigan, especially there offense. Now all of a sudden they score two touchdowns in the second half against PSU and there better than USC’s offense. Gimme a break. Don’t forget we dominated USC and there receivers for a whole half. We are going to dominate this offense just like we did a year ago.

 

[irishtrooper]

I'll go on record. Michigan 24, ND 20. I wish I could change my vote but I'll post there too.

Michigan wins. Hope I'm wrong.

Don’t worry, you are

 

[Irish#1]

I listened to the pod too. It wasn’t that dramatic. They all acknowledged both teams are equally talented to the point that it comes down to home field advantage. Sampson said if he had to pick today, he’d go w/ scUM. Prister said if he looked at both teams on paper w/o knowing who was who, he’d pick scUM...also noting home field advantage. That means if they were playing in South Bend, they’d all be picking the Irish.

It’s just an opinion. They all three want ND to win.

Did anyone ask them who had a better coaching staff? That’s an advantage in our favor.

 

[Irishize]

Small correction, it was never 7.5. That was a pre-season line. The opening line was 4 or 3.5 in most places.

Makes you wonder what Vegas knows to open there. Don’t forget, this game will feature a B1G officiating crew & they just got “called out” for the bad calls scUM received vs the bad no-calls for PSU.

 

[irishtrooper]

Vegas isn’t only considering who will win when setting lines. They also consider the betting action too. I’m guessing that the line moving down so much already is due to them having it too high initially. At this point being a 1.5 point dog tells us that we are slightly better (with the 3 pt home field bump). The thing is, I’m not sure their home field is worth that much. I’m sure there’ll be moments but I have rarely seen the crowd there have a huge impact. It isn’t like playing at ND, but it’s not like going to UGA where most of the players have never even been. This school isn’t far away, we’ve recruited a lot of the same guys, they have been (other than a quarter here and there) pretty meh this year. Being a night game dials it up some, but I think the fact that they’re essentially out of the BIG 10 race and the National Title race is going to dampen their spirits to help negate the night bump.

Unless we crap our pants, which is highly unlikely based on what I’ve seen-it’ll be a fun night to be Irish

 

[BGIF]

Line is currently down to MI -1.5

MI -1

 

[Irishize]

Vegas isn’t only considering who will win when setting lines. They also consider the betting action too. I’m guessing that the line moving down so much already is due to them having it too high initially. At this point being a 1.5 point dog tells us that we are slightly better (with the 3 pt home field bump). The thing is, I’m not sure their home field is worth that much. I’m sure there’ll be moments but I have rarely seen the crowd there have a huge impact. It isn’t like playing at ND, but it’s not like going to UGA where most of the players have never even been. This school isn’t far away, we’ve recruited a lot of the same guys, they have been (other than a quarter here and there) pretty meh this year. Being a night game dials it up some, but I think the fact that they’re essentially out of the BIG 10 race and the National Title race is going to dampen their spirits to help negate the night bump.

Unless we crap our pants, which is highly unlikely based on what I’ve seen-it’ll be a fun night to be Irish

Based on BK saying the Meatchicken home crowd was one of the most impressive he’s ever played in front of, I wouldn’t underestimate it’s value.

 

[irishtrooper]

Of course he’s saying that. Their well known reputation is not very impressive. I’m not saying it’ll be quiet, but it will be nothing like UGA.

Here’s a link discussing this rep

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...chigans-football-crowds-are-big-but-not-loud/

 

[ulukinatme]

Based on BK saying the Meatchicken home crowd was one of the most impressive he’s ever played in front of, I wouldn’t underestimate it’s value.

It's not like he's not going to say they're a bunch of punks. Guarantee you that Georgia's stadium is louder than Michigan's, if for no other reason that it has a better design to contain noise levels. The Big Toilet Bowl is rather spread out and the noise escapes upward, not to mention the fans are further from the field in the upper decks.

 

[Irish#1]

Based on BK saying the Meatchicken home crowd was one of the most impressive he’s ever played in front of, I wouldn’t underestimate it’s value.

It's not like he's not going to say they're a bunch of punks. Guarantee you that Georgia's stadium is louder than Michigan's, if for no other reason that it has a better design to contain noise levels. The Big Toilet Bowl is rather spread out and the noise escapes upward, not to mention the fans are further from the field in the upper decks.

I have a friend who has been at scUM and UGA for ND games. In his opinion, UGA was easily the loudest stadium he's been at for a road game. I messaged him right before kickoff at UGA.

Me: Looks electric on TV.
Him: You have no idea.

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

Really wish Daelin was healthy so he and Khalid could show Shea what real Michigan players look like.

 

[IrishLax]

Makes you wonder what Vegas knows to open there. Don’t forget, this game will feature a B1G officiating crew & they just got “called out” for the bad calls scUM received vs the bad no-calls for PSU.

Both teams have weird data points. Michigan is #14 in SP+, Notre Dame is #19. Then you tack on 3 points for home field and that's how you get to -4 as an opener. Baked in to all of that is the fact that Michigan's offense being ranked #52 is clearly based on their early season results and not particularly accurate, but similarly is their defense accurately evaluated at #4?

Vegas doesn't use SP+ or any other system, per se, in evaluating games for setting initial lines... but they do consider all available information. In this case I don't think they expected the public to be such Michigan haters, which is why the line has already moved 3 points. When you consider pre-season perception to now, what you really have to look at is that the line has almost moved a full TD from August... mainly because Michigan is significantly worse than expected on offense, and ND is just about as good as their pre-season rankings. Do I believe their offense is still as bad as we saw against Army, Iowa, and Wisconsin? No, I don't. I think the last two weeks they have shown improvement in their running game, and then in the second half against Penn State finally showcased an efficient passing game. And that's the main reason I expect this to be a tough one. Through week 5, I would have been extremely optimistic about ND's ability to shut down their offense.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

Both teams have weird data points. Michigan is #14 in SP+, Notre Dame is #19. Then you tack on 3 points for home field and that's how you get to -4 as an opener. Baked in to all of that is the fact that Michigan's offense being ranked #52 is clearly based on their early season results and not particularly accurate, but similarly is their defense accurately evaluated at #4?

Vegas doesn't use SP+ or any other system, per se, in evaluating games for setting initial lines... but they do consider all available information. In this case I don't think they expected the public to be such Michigan haters, which is why the line has already moved 3 points. When you consider pre-season perception to now, what you really have to look at is that the line has almost moved a full TD from August... mainly because Michigan is significantly worse than expected on offense, and ND is just about as good as their pre-season rankings. Do I believe their offense is still as bad as we saw against Army, Iowa, and Wisconsin? No, I don't. I think the last two weeks they have shown improvement in their running game, and then in the second half against Penn State finally showcased an efficient passing game. And that's the main reason I expect this to be a tough one. Through week 5, I would have been extremely optimistic about ND's ability to shut down their offense.

I don’t know about CFB but my gambler friend showed me there are multiple books who just use Ken Pomeroy’s ratings for college basketball. He can tell you what the lines will be before they’re posted.

I wouldn’t be shocked if they center on SP+ since it’s been around long enough to have a track record.

 

[Old Man Mike]

We have Clark Lea.

 

[NorthDakota]

I have a friend who has been at scUM and UGA for ND games. In his opinion, UGA was easily the loudest stadium he's been at for a road game. I messaged him right before kickoff at UGA.

Me: Looks electric on TV.
Him: You have no idea.

People bring their A game for Notre Dame. Not bad for being irrelevant.