ND Plays a Soft Schedule?

[Whiskeyjack]

First, a little background on how this post came about:

Andy Staples of Sports Illustrated wrote this article ranking college football's 20 most desirable head coaching jobs. His ranking is pretty arbitrary, but there's nothing terribly objectionable about Notre Dame in there.

Then JC Shurburtt at 247 felt compelled to make his own top 20 list. He ranked Notre Dame 12th with this caption:

12. Notre Dame- Some may disagree here, but the schedule the Irish plays every year is a positive thing in terms of being able to get enough wins to reach the BCS. It’s not as difficult as a Big Ten, SEC, Pac-10 or even a Big 12 program. Plus, it’s Notre Dame and it appeals to certain top prospects across the country. A national brand, a football school that enjoys success in other sports with money, facilities and the broadest fan support of any college in the country.

This is probably the 4th or 5th presumably knowledgeable commentator I've read this week who has taken a shot at ND's SoS. So I did a little digging, and I found this rebuttal from Stewart Mandel at Sports Illustrated:

Unlike most FBS teams, [Notre Dame doesn't] play FCS opponents. They play USC and Michigan every year. Two of their other annual opponents, Stanford and Michigan State, won 12 and 11 games, respectively, last season. In fact, their 2010 opponents had the highest combined FBS winning percentage (.653) in the country during the regular season, and nine of their 12 foes this season played in a bowl game last year. (And ineligible USC would have made for 10).

That should put this whole soft schedule nonsense to bed, right? Nope, ND's detractors insist that the AQ conferences produce more challenging schedules than ND's. O RLY?

Here are the 2010 Sagarin average SoS rankings for each AQ conference:
ACC - 37.3
Big 12 - 38.3
Big 10 - 53.9
Big East - 60.5
Pac 10 - 5.5
SEC - 27.8

Notre Dame's 2010 SoS was ranked 22. So the only conference that produced a tougher average schedule than ND played last year was the Pac 10. In other words, ND's schedule was tougher than the average ACC, Big 12, Big 10, Big East, and SEC schedule.

Was last season a fluke? Hardly. Notre Dame's average SoS over the last decade is 19.9, which I would bet is probably higher than any other FBS team (can someone verify that?) I'm certain no conference has averaged that kind of SoS over the last decade.

So the next time some punk blogger writes about our "soft" schedule or how we should join a conference if we want to be taken seriously, SHOW NO MERCY.

 

[ACamp1900]

I made this point without th background the other day also, and you're dead on...

but as is the case many different sports news outlets just go with what sells... not what is factual. It is unerving for sure. Selling that ND is cupcake and plays service academies every year is def. en vouge.

 

[GEORGIA DOMER]

i think i will get this as a tat on my back! i swear to god if i have this argument w another sec fan this year i am going to start bitch slapping people!!!!!!!

 

[phork]

Sheeple are more apt to accept something they already believe to be true. While certainly not the lights out toughest, definitely not anywhere near the neighborhood of cupcake. Its easy to see the Navys and other teams of patsy years gone by and jump to that conclusion, but these teams have geared it up in recent years.

I don't put much weight into this things, I just sit back knowing that at some point we are going to start running each and every team we play. And even then the critics won't shut up.

 

[BeauBenken]

i think i will get this as a tat on my back! i swear to god if i have this argument w another sec fan this year i am going to start bitch slapping people!!!!!!!

LMAO...

It is obnoxious to hear people say we play cupcakes. The Academies > FCS schools. And do these people care to look at our future schedules at all. That's some ridiculous stuff there.

 

[IrishLax]

Our 2012 schedule is the most outrageously hard schedule I have seen in a long time.

Michigan, Miami (neutral), USC (away), Oklahoma (away). That is 4 blue blood programs.
Michigan State, Stanford, BC, BYU. 4 teams that could all easily be top 25.
Pitt, Navy, Wake, Purdue are our "easy" games. That's right, the possible Big East Champion is one of our 4 "easy" games.

It's an idiotic schedule... like seriously stupid levels of difficult and impossible for any team to navigate without some missteps. I don't care how good we are, I will be shocked if we finish better than 7-5 that year.

Anyone who looks at that schedule and says "easy" is either an idiot or an unabashed hater... or both.

 

[PLACforever]

Our 2012 schedule is the most outrageously hard schedule I have seen in a long time.

Michigan, Miami (neutral), USC (away), Oklahoma (away). That is 4 blue blood programs.
Michigan State, Stanford, BC, BYU. 4 teams that could all easily be top 25.
Pitt, Navy, Wake, Purdue are our "easy" games. That's right, the possible Big East Champion is one of our 4 "easy" games.

It's an idiotic schedule... like seriously stupid levels of difficult and impossible for any team to navigate without some missteps. I don't care how good we are, I will be shocked if we finish better than 7-5 that year.

Anyone who looks at that schedule and says "easy" is either an idiot or an unabashed hater... or both.

That Oklahoma game has the potential to be very important/interesting...

 

[Rhode Irish]

I've never understood this line of argument from "experts" and fans of other programs. Seems like even a surface-level analysis would shut the notion down, but apparently the CFB media is too lazy to conduct an analysis as "thorough" as whiskey's. (Whiskey, that isn't a shot. You did a good job, I'm just saying you would think people that got paid for that kind of thing would be similarly capable.)

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I've never understood this line of argument from "experts" and fans of other programs. Seems like even a surface-level analysis would shut the notion down, but apparently the CFB media is too lazy to conduct an analysis as "thorough" as whiskey's. (Whiskey, that isn't a shot. You did a good job, I'm just saying you would think people that got paid for that kind of thing would be similarly capable.)

I caught your drift. This post took me all of about 10 minutes to research.

To be fair, vigorous hand-waving and commenting about ND's "high school speed" must take a lot of preparation. They don't have time for statistics.

 

[jmurphy75]

I had this argument with my soon to be brother in laws friend at his engagement party......I got so pissed off that they had to separate us and he now avoids me at social functions! It's just plain ignorance.

 

[mgriff]

This happens every year, all year long. If you look at the facts it's apparent that they are slinging ****.

 

[phgreek]

First, a little background on how this post came about:

Andy Staples of Sports Illustrated wrote this article ranking college football's 20 most desirable head coaching jobs. His ranking is pretty arbitrary, but there's nothing terribly objectionable about Notre Dame in there.

Then JC Shurburtt at 247 felt compelled to make his own top 20 list. He ranked Notre Dame 12th with this caption:



This is probably the 4th or 5th presumably knowledgeable commentator I've read this week who has taken a shot at ND's SoS. So I did a little digging, and I found this rebuttal from Stewart Mandel at Sports Illustrated:



That should put this whole soft schedule nonsense to bed, right? Nope, ND's detractors insist that the AQ conferences produce more challenging schedules than ND's. O RLY?

Here are the 2010 Sagarin average SoS rankings for each AQ conference:
ACC - 37.3
Big 12 - 38.3
Big 10 - 53.9
Big East - 60.5
Pac 10 - 5.5
SEC - 27.8

Notre Dame's 2010 SoS was ranked 22. So the only conference that produced a tougher average schedule than ND played last year was the Pac 10. In other words, ND's schedule was tougher than the average ACC, Big 12, Big 10, Big East, and SEC schedule.

Was last season a fluke? Hardly. Notre Dame's average SoS over the last decade is 19.9, which I would bet is probably higher than any other FBS team (can someone verify that?) I'm certain no conference has averaged that kind of SoS over the last decade.

So the next time some punk blogger writes about our "soft" schedule or how we should join a conference if we want to be taken seriously, SHOW NO MERCY.

Great Post. This schedule misnomer seems to come up each year...yet by year's end we end up with a really good SOS. But I never see a retraction piece saying these fools got it wrong.

 

[anarin]

Our 2012 schedule is the most outrageously hard schedule I have seen in a long time.

Michigan, Miami (neutral), USC (away), Oklahoma (away). That is 4 blue blood programs.
Michigan State, Stanford, BC, BYU. 4 teams that could all easily be top 25.
Pitt, Navy, Wake, Purdue are our "easy" games. That's right, the possible Big East Champion is one of our 4 "easy" games.It's an idiotic schedule... like seriously stupid levels of difficult and impossible for any team to navigate without some missteps. I don't care how good we are, I will be shocked if we finish better than 7-5 that year.

Anyone who looks at that schedule and says "easy" is either an idiot or an unabashed hater... or both.

I wouldnt call pitt a possible big east champion....

 

[ACamp1900]

I wouldnt call pitt a possible big east champion....

next year?? I wouldn't call them otherwise... Pitt has to be considered a possibility in any random year in that conference...

 

[nlroma1o]

i love how big 10 folks try to convince us that our schedule will be stronger if we joing their conference. cracks me up

 

[Buster Bluth]

Michigan
Miami (neutral)
USC (away)
Oklahoma (away)
Michigan State
Stanford
BC
BYU
Pitt
Navy
Wake
Purdue

I will be shocked if we finish better than 7-5 that year.

That is not an easy schedule, but it's not the hardest schedule either. Miami and Michigan are still up in the air whether they'll be formidable by 2012. At least when Kelly took over, Notre Dame was stocked with talent. Michigan isn't. Miami is, so they will probably be good--but the game is in Chicago.

USC will have depth issue at that point, no?

Oklahoma...pray.

None of the others really scare me. Stanford loses Luck so it's not like they're going to be incredible.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Found a great article article on this subject at BR (shocking, I know.) It's from April 2010, so it doesn't include BK's first season, but it offers some figures I was interested in. (Also be warned that it focuses heavily on comparison with Big 10 teams, since it looked like we might be joining the conference back then.)

Notre Dame's average Sagarin SoS from 1997 through 2009- 20.6

That covers Davie, Willingham, and Weis; it should capture our entire stretch of mediocrity. I doubt any team averaged a better SoS over that 13-year period.

 

[supairishfan]

we play good teams week in and week out except for maybe west michigan and army last year. People think that Navy is awful. If i remember correctly like 2 years ago they took OSU down to the final second.

 

[ACamp1900]

we play good teams week in and week out except for maybe west michigan and army last year. People think that Navy is awful. If i remember correctly like 2 years ago they took OSU down to the final second.

and should have won... they give everyone fits... you could put SC in our 'cnference' schedule and put Navy as our hardest OC game and you'd have about half the nation's hardest OC game topped

 

[ACamp1900]

As whiskey wanted, I used this very data to shut up some uga fan who was talking smack about how ND always plays a weak schedule...


his only response was comparing Florida's month long suicide run this year to ND as if he couldn't have done that to ANY OTHER SCHOOL in the country... then he said ND doesn't play great teams (He defined great as ten wins plus) and implied ND should play SEVEN 'great teams' (again his definition is ten win teams) to get his respect...


I asked him to name one team that ever played seven, ten win teams in one year... crickets.....

lol

reps to Whiskey

 

[Whiskeyjack]

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Phil Steele rates ND's 2011 schedule as the 14th toughest.

 

[DuffHouse12]

Notre Dame's schedule is a double edged sword. USC obviously top tier, Michigan, Michigan State are good, but not exactly SEC defenses.

but ND's weakest games are far superior than most SEC teams weakest games - UL Monroe? Jacksonville State? incredibly weak. Navy would dominate those teams.

 

[jdailey1981]

I think the 2012 season will be the first big test for Kelly and the team. It is a step in the direction to becoming what ND once was against the big teams. If we can beat Miami, Oklahoma and Michigan, we will know that ND will be on the right path. I can't wait until we get good enough again to be able to put teams like Alabama, Ohio State, LSU and other big schools in our schedule. The future of ND looks bright, but don't expect results overnight.

 

[jdailey1981]

So what would you say the Big Ten is? Ohio State is about the only real powerhouse in the Big Ten, but they are on probation for 2 years, so I would say the only 2 other teams that would have to be a powerhouse would be Penn State or Michigan, and I bet Penn State gets detroyed by Alabama this year, and it would be great for ND to beat Michigan....so for the past few years, would it be appropriate to say Ohio State played a soft schedule because only few of the teams have been ranked from the Big Ten? If Ohio State is truly a powerhouse compared to ND, let's take a look at championships and records vs powerful schools...ND dominates. Sure, the past few years have been rough, but with Tressel gone from Ohio State, this means more opportunity, and I look forward to ND being back on top. Im sorry, but how can a self proclaimed national powerhouse like Ohio State have a 0-9 record in bowl games against the SEC, the current powerhouse conference in the nation?

Sorry, I know this got off topic, but I say this....call the schedule what you will. If your school could be independent and pick their games, they would be in a second, instead of having to play all the same teams year in and out.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

[W]ould it be appropriate to say Ohio State played a soft schedule because only few of the teams have been ranked from the Big Ten?

Funny you should ask. OSU's SoS was ranked 70th last year.

Which makes the following quote from OSU president E. Gordon Gee:

"Well, I don't know enough about the X's and O's of college football," said Gee, formerly the president at West Virginia, Colorado, Brown and Vanderbilt universities. "I do know, having been both a Southeastern Conference president and a Big Ten president, that it's like murderer's row every week for these schools. We do not play the Little Sisters of the Poor. We play very fine schools on any given day.

... deliciously ironic.

 

[jdailey1981]

Notre Dame's schedule is a double edged sword. USC obviously top tier, Michigan, Michigan State are good, but not exactly SEC defenses.

but ND's weakest games are far superior than most SEC teams weakest games - UL Monroe? Jacksonville State? incredibly weak. Navy would dominate those teams.

Don't forget, Alabama lost 2 years in a row to UL Monroe, which is why Alabama doesn't want to play them anymore, but man, Nick Saban is sure trying to fight hard to get ND in the schedule. See, now that ND has had a rough few years, yeah, bring em on....but where were they talking all this when ND was a powerhouse.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

I will never say ND's schedule is weak, but to play devil's advocate:

Strictly going by opponent W-L in 2010:

Navy (9-4) was an equal opponent to Mississippi State (9-4) last year, and I don't buy that. MSU would handle Navy rather easily IMO.

Army (7-6) was considered a tougher opponent than Georgia (6-7) last year, and I also don't buy that. Georgia would beat up on Army IMO.

Utah (10-3) was considered an equal opponent to Alabama (10-3) last year, and I don't buy that, even though the Utes had their number in the 2009 Sugar Bowl.

*Feel free to blast me, but SOS is often an inexact science, and for the record, I HATE the SEC, and this certainly isn't a:

"Thems boys always be a beetin' each other ep" chest-puffing tSEC circle-jerk apology.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

No disagreement here, Steelhead. See the Phil Steele article linked in post #22. He's making the same argument.

Phil Steele's and Jeff Sagarin's SoS ranking tend to be the most accurate in my opinion.

By almost any metric, ND's average SoS is among the best in the nation. I suspect that our average SoS over virtually any time period is #1 nationally, but I haven't had time to research it.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

No disagreement here, Steelhead. See the Phil Steele article linked in post #22. He's making the same argument.

Phil Steele's and Jeff Sagarin's SoS ranking tend to be the most accurate in my opinion.

By almost any metric, ND's average SoS is among the best in the nation. I suspect that our average SoS over virtually any time period is #1 nationally, but I haven't had time to research it.

According to this link, ND is #5 all-time, but I didn't see the exact criteria:

Team Strength of Schedule All-Time Rankings