SIAP, but here are all the advanced stats for the team this year. Based on the stats of the game, ND should have finished 7-5 this year.
Lots of goodies in here, but there are six things I wanted to point out.
1) The offense was really pedestrian, but I think it has to do with creativity, tendencies and situational circumstances. ND's offense was THE best offense in CFB in the first quarter this year. They dropped to 56th in both the second and third quarters, while recording a paltry 96th in the fourth. To me, this has everything to do with the situation the team was in (special teams and defense deficiencies) as well as adjustments. For whatever reason (lack of continuity within coaching, inability to control DK from making changes at the line, inexperience at WR) the team could not adjust mid game like their opposition did. This was a clear reversal of last year, when ND was the #1 S&P+ offense in the 3rd quarter and the #2 in the 4th.
2) The disparity between passing down and standard down success rates. For clarity, passing downs are downs are 2nd and 8 or more to go and 3rd/4th down and 5 or more to go, the rest is considered standard downs. I fully acknowledge this stat ignores game situation (i.e., score) but it still is valuable. ND was basically middle of the pack in the FBS in standard down efficiency, explosiveness and success rate. However, ND was 101 (!) in line yards per carry and 121 (!!!!!) in sack rate on standard downs (compared to 36th and 88th a year ago). Compare that to passing downs were ND was 8th (!!) in line yards (#3 in 2015) and 26th in sack rate (an improvement from 2015). The final piece to this puzzle is that ND ranked 90th in standard down running play % (85th a year ago), was ranked 63rd in passing down running play % (40th in 2015) and ranked 93rd in offensive pace (an improvement from 106 last year). There is much to digest there, but I think it shows that ND was predictable in play calling on 1st down (score situational or not) and there wasn't a fear of a down field threat.
3) Our running game was actually pretty darn good at avoiding negative plays and getting 2 or 3 yards when needed. Our power success rate was 15th in country and our stuff rate (or lack there of) was 31st. The issue was explosiveness, which is where ND ranked 71. We can debate how much of this is due to the lack of down field passing threat, but it was a gigantic regression from 2015, when ND ranked 8th.
4) The defense was really bad, I mean really bad, at forcing negative plays. Nd ranked 103rd overall in havoc plays (negative yardage, forced fumble, pass break up or INT), with the DL ranking 81st, LB ranking 39th and DB ranking 120 (barf).
5) Special teams was, well, not special. Punt success rate was 112th in the nation and overall special teams S&P+ was 79th. The only bright spot was kick off return success rate, which ranked 33rd, up significantly from 2015 (104th).
6) One last note on the defense.....overall the defensive efficiency wasn't bad...ranking 29th. In fact, the defense ranked 14th in allowing explosive plays ppo. The run defense was slightly better than average at stuff rate and power success. Pass defense was different. Success rate on defense was 115th and efficiency was 92nd. Explosiveness allowed was about average for the FBS. This, IMO, is tied back to the havoc rate previously discussed. Simply put, there were not enough negative plays generated on defense. There will need to be a balance next year between generating TO while not giving up more explosive plays. I will be curious to how that plays out.
Summary for me is that the season wasn't as bad as the record suggested, but it wasn't anything great either. IMO, I don't see where there was one stat or two stats that would propel ND next year to a 10 win season if they turn around. There are many things that need to change and collectively propel the team. That said, defense clearly needs more disruptive plays and the offense needs to be much more explosive. For the defense, creating turnovers would go a long way. The last two years ND has lost, on average, 2 points per game due to the TO battle. S&P+ labels this as "luck", but ND has not been good at forcing TO and the "luck" and 2 ppg will not come back until that changes. For Offense, it is explosiveness, whether it comes from someone stepping up or thru pace. If I were BK, I would try to get it thru pace.
http://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2016-notre-dame-advanced-statistical-profile
