Brian Kelly Revisited (RIP BOZO)

[yankeeND]

I could be mistaken here, but isn't a big reason EG left because Zaire was going to cut into his time and possibly even start over him? To me that would make it a 1A and 1B situation.

You are not wrong, but we shouldn't discount the fact that EG was a 2 year starter here. Even if he was 1A or 1B, I still see a 1 in front of his name.

The one thing that I will say about how everything has played out is that Kizer is proving to be a 1 regardless of who is at the position with him. Another bone I will throw to Kelly and Sanford for having him prepared.

 

[Ndaccountant]

The spread for any game is always adjusted to each team's strength... over the course of the season, every single team in the country will have their opponent's ATS record be approximately .500. Every single team. Doesn't matter if your Bama or Western Kentucky, that's just the way it works.

Now, the one piece of valuable information you can glean from ATS is how an individual team is doing relative to expectations. If that singular team is covers the spread (or mathematical projection if you're looking at statistical models and not Vegas) in a game, then they exceeded expectations. If they don't, then they performed below expectations.

Ergo, ND being 6-1 ATS is relevant. The "all play" ATS record of opponent's will never, ever be a relative data point in any context.

Since game 1 of 2012's season, Bama is .447 ATS and Michigan is at .489. Realizing how bad Michigan was in the final years of Hoke, are you comfortable extending the logic you have above to conclude that Bama has been worse than Michigan from a results versus expectation perspective?

I personally don't think that is the case, but the statistics and logic would say yes. What really is happening is that teams performance is based solely on the emotion of the gambling community. Certain teams evoke different emotions. Bama clearly has expectations that often exceed reality. In the case of ND in 2015, I think it is more likely than not that the gambling community has been overly pessimistic towards ND based on the performance of the team in the second half of 2014, the injury situation with MZ and the overall defensive performance. Your point still stands that we are beating those expectations, the question is whether or not the expectation is too low, the same as how Bama's is too high.

 

[Irish#1]

Wizard has higher standards. If we win the NC, I would consider that historic.

 

[IrishLax]

Since game 1 of 2012's season, Bama is .447 ATS and Michigan is at .489. Realizing how bad Michigan was in the final years of Hoke, are you comfortable extending the logic you have above to conclude that Bama has been worse than Michigan from a results versus expectation perspective?

First of all, ATS isn't useful over a long period of time to measure anything. This is a fundamental aspect of how the system works... all teams basically approach .500. Second, 4% points total separation between the teams isn't exactly significant. Third, if you gave me a hypothetical that Team A was 65% ATS and Team B was 35%... then yes, I'd say that Team A was exceeding expectations in a real time game-by-game basis more than Team B with respect to margin of victory and the projected outcome.

I personally don't think that is the case, but the statistics and logic would say yes. What really is happening is that teams performance is based solely on the emotion of the gambling community. Certain teams evoke different emotions. Bama clearly has expectations that often exceed reality. In the case of ND in 2015, I think it is more likely than not that the gambling community has been overly pessimistic towards ND based on the performance of the team in the second half of 2014, the injury situation with MZ and the overall defensive performance. Your point still stands that we are beating those expectations, the question is whether or not the expectation is too low, the same as how Bama's is too high.

Your overall point is a good one, and why I've tried to say that you can also look at projected outcomes from different models and pundits as well, and see similar results. In general, where people have pegged ND is way below how they are doing. This will probably change in the second half of the season, as expectations adjust upwards.

It's worth noting that relative to most pre-season lines, ND is also 6-1 ATS. These are reflective of how everyone valued ND and all opponents, and not reflective of injuries, etc. Is this a case of ND being better than expected? Opponents being worse? Both?

Also, to the bolded, lines are pretty much never set by emotion (but they can and do move on the "feelings" of the public), and also the books are rarely completely "balanced" these days.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Just because I'm not lining up to fellate the guy doesn't mean I think he's doing a bad job. I just think we need to hold our horses before we go overboard with the hyperbole of dubbing his an all-time great performance.

I distinctly recall your employer fellating Urban Meyer for winning a title with his 3rd string QB last season. And he did so with an otherwise healthy team against a ridiculously soft schedule. Even still, it was mostly deserved, because winning a title is really hard, and doing so without your top two QBs is remarkable.

Which is why Kelly deserves a lot more credit than he's getting from you for being 6-1 with the injuries we've sustained.

Also, if Koon or I told someone to "fuck off to NDNation," we'd be shown the door immediately.

I didn't tell you personally to "f*ck off to NDNation", but to f*ck off with this irrational negativity. And I'll happily endorse that sentiment again.

This program, the University of Notre Dame football program, has won eleven national championships in its history. We've gone undefeated eleven times. To be a historical season, we need to do one of those things.

Did we win any of those titles with most of our two-deep from spring camp devastated by season-ending injuries? No. It is eminently reasonable to state that in light of the attrition we've suffered, Kelly's coaching has been historically good this season.

For fuck sake: GK, Wiz, and Irish Insanity...you guys can piss off with this irrational stuff. I've supported a lot of posts in this thread, but you guys are being ridiculous with your recent posts against LAX's article. You're literally nitpicking the hell out of it in trying to defend your stance to an absolute fault. Stop. Seriously.

CJ is on pace to shatter a record from 1979. That's the definition of historical relevance. And why is it that when a player does great, it's on the player. But when a player fucks up, it's the coach's fault? The staff put CJ in position to do what he's been doing every weekend. The staff built the OL. The staff called the plays. CJ is executing.

Kizer SUCKED in the spring and almost quit over the summer, yet here he is playing really well. Give the staff some fucking credit for that.

No one is suggesting this is history in the making because ND is beating the teams they should. But LAX is giving credit to the staff for 1) keeping this team from imploding in the face of adversity 2) continuing to win the games they're supposed to win 3) being the only team in the country to have covered the spread in every game they're favored in accept one. THE ONLY TEAM IN THE COUNTRY.

They are winning the games they are supposed to win IN SPITE of injuries. Take off your fucking blinders and see that the staff is getting a hell of lot out of these players (and backups).

Absolutely. Kelly's detractors are treading into bad faith territory with their criticisms recently. Pure sophistry.

 

[Monk]

You are not wrong, but we shouldn't discount the fact that EG was a 2 year starter here. Even if he was 1A or 1B, I still see a 1 in front of his name.

The one thing that I will say about how everything has played out is that Kizer is proving to be a 1 regardless of who is at the position with him. Another bone I will throw to Kelly and Sanford for having him prepared.

Yes I completely agree.

If I may play devils advocate here for a second. Do you think the play of the backups is more indicative of coaching the backups well enough to step in and play at a high level or is the staff misevaluating the talent pool and depth chart? I like to believe it is more of the first than the second, but I honestly don't know.


Just to put it all out there. I believe the staff is doing a fantastic job (with some room for improvement as we all have) and do not want them to go anywhere. The defense needs to play better and if VanGorder left it wouldn't break my heart.

 

[Ndaccountant]

First of all, ATS isn't useful over a long period of time to measure anything. This is a fundamental aspect of how the system works... all teams basically approach .500. Second, 4% points total separation between the teams isn't exactly significant. Third, if you gave me a hypothetical that Team A was 65% ATS and Team B was 35%... then yes, I'd say that Team A was exceeding expectations in a real time game-by-game basis more than Team B with respect to margin of victory and the projected outcome.



Your overall point is a good one, and why I've tried to say that you can also look at projected outcomes from different models and pundits as well, and see similar results. In general, where people have pegged ND is way below how they are doing. This will probably change in the second half of the season, as expectations adjust upwards.

It's worth noting that relative to most pre-season lines, ND is also 6-1 ATS. These are reflective of how everyone valued ND and all opponents, and not reflective of injuries, etc. Is this a case of ND being better than expected? Opponents being worse? Both?

Also, to the bolded, lines are pretty much never set by emotion (but they can and do move on the "feelings" of the public), and also the books are rarely completely "balanced" these days.

Just would like to point out that there are some teams that have exceed ATS expectations over the years with some regularity. Since game 1 of 2012 a few teams to note are Baylor at .674, Ole Miss is .609, Oregon is .604 and Stanford at .596.

 

[yankeeND]

Yes I completely agree.

If I may play devils advocate here for a second. Do you think the play of the backups is more indicative of coaching the backups well enough to step in and play at a high level or is the staff misevaluating the talent pool and depth chart? I like to believe it is more of the first than the second, but I honestly don't know.


Just to put it all out there. I believe the staff is doing a fantastic job (with some room for improvement as we all have) and do not want them to go anywhere. The defense needs to play better and if VanGorder left it wouldn't break my heart.

Now that is an excellent question. It could be a little of both, their class plays a factor too in terms of time to develop. I think the X factor here is Sanford, and our situation would be much different without him. Still, the addition has allowed Kelly to really focus on the team and his approach imo. He is just starting to look very comfortable as the head coach at Notre Dame, and I love the direction he has the team heading.
BVG is an intense guy, idk yet how the kids are responding to his teaching methods quite yet. I will actually reserve my opinions until the end of the season and see where they are. Lots of talent out there, don't need to over scheme it. Then again they could really take off the second half of the season and make up my mind for me.

 

[kmoose]

Yes I completely agree.

If I may play devils advocate here for a second. Do you think the play of the backups is more indicative of coaching the backups well enough to step in and play at a high level or is the staff misevaluating the talent pool and depth chart? I like to believe it is more of the first than the second, but I honestly don't know.


Just to put it all out there. I believe the staff is doing a fantastic job (with some room for improvement as we all have) and do not want them to go anywhere. The defense needs to play better and if VanGorder left it wouldn't break my heart.

I think its indicative of the staff adapting the game plan to the players' strengths, rather than trying to adapt the players' strengths to the game plan; something that Kelly has been roundly(and rightly) criticized for in the past. I think these guys are having more success because they are getting to go out and do what they do, within reason. But even at that, it takes a lot to get these guys ready for that.

 

[Monk]

Now that is an excellent question. It could be a little of both, their class plays a factor too in terms of time to develop. I think the X factor here is Sanford, and our situation would be much different without him. Still, the addition has allowed Kelly to really focus on the team and his approach imo. He is just starting to look very comfortable as the head coach at Notre Dame, and I love the direction he has the team heading.
BVG is an intense guy, idk yet how the kids are responding to his teaching methods quite yet. I will actually reserve my opinions until the end of the season and see where they are. Lots of talent out there, don't need to over scheme it. Then again they could really take off the second half of the season and make up my mind for me.

I think the bold is a good point.

We shall see what the rest of the season holds for the defense. The potential is definitely there for great things.

 

[Rocket89]

That's what I don't get, I don't see much if any BK hate. Nobody calling for his firing. Nobody saying he's the wrong guy. But again, that narrative continues to be pushed by the blind supporters. We should be able to give criticism of someone without it meaning the above. Which, again, is the reason I believe the thread was started.

This about sums up everything that is wrong with the genesis of this thread.

I've noticed guys like gk like to set this trap quite often. He starts an utterly embarrassing, petulant, and sorry thread and when people push back he claims everyone else are just blind supporters and he's the prescient one making legitimate criticisms.

Oh but he's not calling for Kelly to be fired so I guess everything is fine. I feel so bad for people who think gk's full of all this wisdom.

I'm also consistently amazed at how the gk and wizards of the world try so hard to go out of their way to piss on the teams parade and suck all the joy out of this season. It's the epitome of NDNation.

 

[Cackalacky]

 

[woolybug25]

This about sums up everything that is wrong with the genesis of this thread.

I've noticed guys like gk like to set this trap quite often. He starts an utterly embarrassing, petulant, and sorry thread and when people push back he claims everyone else are just blind supporters and he's the prescient one making legitimate criticisms.

Oh but he's not calling for Kelly to be fired so I guess everything is fine. I feel so bad for people who think gk's full of all this wisdom.

I'm also consistently amazed at how the gk and wizards of the world try so hard to go out of their way to piss on the teams parade and suck all the joy out of this season. It's the epitome of NDNation.

GK and Wiz be like...

 

[yankeeND]

Lmfao

 

[wizards8507]

I didn't tell you personally to "f*ck off to NDNation", but to f*ck off with this irrational negativity. And I'll happily endorse that sentiment again.

Okay, this is the last I'll say on the matter because it's getting circular. I'm only being negative when juxtaposed with the over-the-top positivity. I'm actually quite positive, but temperately so. I'm very happy with the job Kelly is doing this season. Calling that negative is akin to calling a Corvette "cheap" because it's not as expensive as a Ferrari.

 

[NDohio]

I was one foot off the wagon a few years ago. I've fallen off now.

Show out, or get out.

I bought in for the first year or so......

We always hope our star players stay every year. Maybe it's time to see if one of them will take BK with them.

That's what I don't get, I don't see much if any BK hate. Nobody calling for his firing. Nobody saying he's the wrong guy. But again, that narrative continues to be pushed by the blind supporters. We should be able to give criticism of someone without it meaning the above. Which, again, is the reason I believe the thread was started.

Maybe this is where some of the confusion comes in. The fly-by comments on page one sure made it seemed like you had given up on BK and wanted him to leave.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

Now somewhere in the Black mining Hills of Dakota
There lived a young boy named Rocky Raccoon,
And one day his woman ran off with another guy,
Hit young Rocky in the eye.
Rocky didn't like that
He said, "I'm gonna get that boy".
So one day he walked into town
Booked himself a room in the local saloon.

Rocky Raccoon checked into his room,
Only to find Gideon's Bible.
Rocky had come, equipped with a gun,
To shoot off the legs of his rival.
His rival it seems, had broken his dreams,
By stealing the girl of his fancy.
Her name was Magill, and she called herself Lil,
But everyone knew her as Nancy.
Now she and her man, who called himself Dan,
Were in the next room at the hoe down.
Rocky burst in, and grinning a grin,
He said, "Danny boy, this is a showdown".
But Daniel was hot, he drew first and shot,
And Rocky collapsed in the corner.

Now the doctor came in, stinking of gin,
And proceeded to lie on the table.
He said, "Rocky, you met your match".
And Rocky said, "Doc, it's only a scratch.
And I'll be better, I'll be better, Doc, as soon as I am able".

Now Rocky Raccoon, he fell back in his room,
Only to find Gideon's Bible.
Gideon checked out, and he left it, no doubt,
To help with good Rocky's revival.

I am going to go off and get sminking with gin, and shoot off the legs of my rival!

 

[kmoose]

That's what I don't get, I don't see much if any BK hate. Nobody calling for his firing. Nobody saying he's the wrong guy. But again, that narrative continues to be pushed by the blind supporters. We should be able to give criticism of someone without it meaning the above. Which, again, is the reason I believe the thread was started.

Here is why the thread was started, right from the horse's mouth, so to speak

I'm just going to post a bunch of random negative thoughts about BK in this post

So he can post a bunch of random negative thoughts, but no one can take an opposing opinion? Because I'm pretty sure that THAT was also part of the motivation for creating this thread:

but feel free to use this as a place to talk about him good or bad.

If he's not the wrong guy, then how can you say you don't know if you can support him?

I used to be a huge BK supporter. Don't think I can do it anymore. Especially if we lose 4 games again this year.

If you aren't hating on the guy, then how do you justify ridiculous statements like these?

2. Still never seems to have a plan B in place when things go poorly.

DeShone Kizer and CJ Prosise were not "plan B"? I would go so far as to argue that they were plan C. How about those second half performances against Clemson and USC? ND played MUCH better, but Kelly can't adapt when things are not working.

3. Play calling is still utterly horrible.

ND's offense is in the Top 20 in yards per game AND points per game. And, as was pointed in another thread, or earlier in this one(can't remember which thread it was in), ND is 8th in the country in yards per play. But yeah, the play calling is "utterly horrible".

Finally, why would you be thinking about who is out there to replace him, if you aren't hoping he gets fired?

I'm scouting the college football coaching landscape for new candidates.

 

[wizards8507]

ND's offense is in the Top 20 in yards per game AND points per game. And, as was pointed in another thread, or earlier in this one(can't remember which thread it was in), ND is 8th in the country in yards per play. But yeah, the play calling is "utterly horrible".

Quality of playcalling is not at 1 to 1 correlation with Yards per Play. Calling a punt on fourth down was the correct call for Michigan, and look how that worked out. We have a large number of "bomb to Fuller" plays that skew our YPP high. If you have a 70 yard touchdown pass and nine runs for no gain, you're averaging 7 YPP, even though 90% of your play calls were bad.

Obviously that's over-simplified, but I'd rather see an offense consistently get five to ten yards than to have many head-scratchers offset by homerun balls. Live by the deep ball, die by the deep ball.

 

[NDohio]

I went back to the OP to see how this thread started and it was a little easy to respond to your negatives five weeks later.

I'm just going to post a bunch of random negative thoughts about BK in this post but feel free to use this as a place to talk about him good or bad.

1. BK will now get a pass from most Irish fans assuming we don't completely tank. The "10 win" expectation most fans had will probably now drop down to 7-8 wins. It's not like we were playing very well when Malik went down...

So here we sit at 6-1. Most ND fans still have 10 wins as the expectation for this season. Nothing has changed.

2. Still never seems to have a plan B in place when things go poorly. I mean he was sitting there talking to Malik for what seemed like 6 plays rather than focusing on the actual game. I understand going over there to console him briefly but my impression was that BK was trying to see if he could come back in to play so Kizer didn't have to. In other words, plan B was "Oh shit can I still go with Plan A." This isn't the best example of this (Joe Schmidt going down and ND defense collapsing is better) but seems to happen a lot.

Plan B for QB and RB have worked out. Plan B for our poor safety play at times has been good - the rotation of Max or Farley has worked pretty well. Good coaching here.

3. Play calling is still utterly horrible. There was a 20 minute stretch during the game where I didn't understand why we ran every play when we did. The 2nd and 10 runs, the 4th and short dive plays. The lack of screens. etc. etc. I don't even know who calls plays anymore it changes so often but it's ultimately on the head coach.

I scratch my head at some play calls, but the results really cannot be argued against. This offense is producing.

4. How many academically elite schools are going to beat us or come close to beating us (Northwestern, Stanford, Virginia, Navy, etc.) before we stop using our academics as an excuse for recruiting seemingly getting worse every year.

I completely look at this differently. I believe BK has gotten better at recruiting every year. I do think he had to learn how to recruit to ND. His first few classes were disastrous, recently he has done pretty well. The young talent on this team is exciting. The future looks bright.

5. How long will we stay with a coach just because we fear we can't do better. 2012 was a team with many Weis players. Our records were 8-4 and 7-5 with teams with only BK players. This season will likely be very similar.

I would be very, very surprised if this is a 8-4 or 7-5 team. I don't think this season will be similar. If he wins ten games he should be given a "that a boy" by all his detractors.

I used to be a huge BK supporter. Don't think I can do it anymore. Especially if we lose 4 games again this year. Obviously we are 2-0 and I hope we win every game and will gladly eat my words but I'm scouting the college football coaching landscape for new candidates.

I do think this thread was a bit premature. Mostly I want to know if you want your words deep fried, grilled, roasted...

 

[Rocket89]

Quality of playcalling is not at 1 to 1 correlation with Yards per Play. Calling a punt on fourth down was the correct call for Michigan, and look how that worked out. We have a large number of "bomb to Fuller" plays that skew our YPP high. If you have a 70 yard touchdown pass and nine runs for no gain, you're averaging 7 YPP, even though 90% of your play calls were bad.

Obviously that's over-simplified, but I'd rather see an offense consistently get five to ten yards than to have many head-scratchers offset by homerun balls. Live by the deep ball, die by the deep ball.

Pissssssssssssssss. See, you literally cannot help yourself.

Notre Dame is 9th nationally in rushing plays of 10+ yards and 10th nationally in rushing plays of 20+ yards. Obviously not even opponent adjusted.

Too many long runs too? Feverishly try to research the strength of schedules and defenses of the teams around us with similar YPP? Where you taking this one now?

 

[ACamp1900]

idk if it's even fair to call QB and RB our plan B... At the end of spring both current starters would have been more of a Plan C

 

[tussin]

Also, to the bolded, lines are pretty much never set by emotion (but they can and do move on the "feelings" of the public), and also the books are rarely completely "balanced" these days.

Aren't lines set by Vegas to where they think gambling will be 50/50 on each side? Seems entirely determined by public feeling.

 

[wizards8507]

Where you taking this one now?

Same place I've been since 2012. Stop running jet sweeps on the opponent's four yard line. Run the ball when you're up 10 in the 4th quarter. Don't throw bubble screens to Corey Robinson or fades to Chris Brown. Use your tight ends.

I think Brian Kelly is a great (elite?) program manager, including recruiting and talent development. If this were the NFL, he'd be an outstanding GM. My questions with him are on his gameday skills. Playcalling, the playbook in general, and motivation (especially opening drives / quarters).

 

[koonja]

Aren't lines set by Vegas to where they think gambling will be 50/50 on each side? Seems entirely determined by public feeling.

I've never gambled on sports, and didn't want to ask, but I personally have no idea how Vegas makes money on sports lines. Isn't if like, if the spread is -11, they want half of the people to take the over, half to take the under, then Vegas prays the game ends an exact 11 point difference, then they collect from both sides?

Is that at all accurate?

 

[GowerND11]

idk if it's even fair to call QB and RB our plan B... At the end of spring both current starters would have been more of a Plan C

True, which says something about the talent level rising over the last few years.

 

[woolybug25]

Obviously that's over-simplified, but I'd rather see an offense consistently get five to ten yards than to have many head-scratchers offset by homerun balls. Live by the deep ball, die by the deep ball.

How many passes to Fuller are really "bombs" though? He's averaging 21.9 yards per reception, so I don't think it is entirely accurate to say that we "live by the deep ball". I cant get the google machine to break out his receptions, but considering the fact that he has several 50 yard+ receptions, it would be reasonable to assume that he has a lot of short catches too. Otherwise his YPR would be higher.

 

[NDohio]

Same place I've been since 2012. Stop running jet sweeps on the opponent's four yard line. Run the ball when you're up 10 in the 4th quarter. Don't throw bubble screens to Corey Robinson or fades to Chris Brown. Use your tight ends.

I think Brian Kelly is a great (elite?) program manager, including recruiting and talent development. If this were the NFL, he'd be an outstanding GM. My questions with him are on his gameday skills. Playcalling, the playbook in general, and motivation (especially opening drives / quarters).

I would be very curious to know who is actually playing calls. I don't get the feeling it's BK. As with any coach calling plays there are times I scratch my head, but I don't think the offense has the same 'BK feel' that it has had in the past.

 

[koonja]

How many passes to Fuller are really "bombs" though? He's averaging 21.9 yards per reception, so I don't think it is entirely accurate to say that we "live by the deep ball". I cant get the google machine to break out his receptions, but considering the fact that he has several 50 yard+ receptions, it would be reasonable to assume that he has a lot of short catches too. Otherwise his YPR would be higher.

Yeah, it's kind of like saying 'yeah but that NBA team only wins games because they hit a lot of 3s'.

Well if they continue to hit 3s over time, then that's why they're good. When done enough, it isn't an anomaly skewing the results.

 

[IrishLax]

Aren't lines set by Vegas to where they think gambling will be 50/50 on each side? Seems entirely determined by public feeling.

That's pretty much a myth based on the antiquated way that lines used to be set. Books used to try to have all of their lines set such that even money was bet across the board and the casino would make their money on the "vig." These days, lines are basically set towards whatever the oddsmaker considers a "probable outcome"... it's not very uncommon to see 70% or 80% of public money on one side of a bet these days.

The evolution in how lines are set has been gradual and it's pretty complex. Casinos still adjust lines based on where the money is coming in if its exceeding their acceptable threshold for a particular game, and there still is an element of "perception" involved. But no, casinos do not set their lines in a direct attempt to achieve a 50/50 split, and sources that say they do are either 1) out of date 2) uninformed about the process.