BCS rankings 2013

[NDWorld247]

Theoretically they would almost have to. If Oregon wins out that would put them in the title game. that would include beating Stanford. Notre Dame being eligible would obviously means they had beaten Stanford which would put them at 9-3. So really there would be really nobody from the PAC12 for them to choose except maybe UCLA. But at the end of the day would the Rose Bowl rather have ND/OSU or UCLA/OSU.

Yep, that's a good point. I think the question becomes does another Pac12 team finish in the top 14? If so, the Rose Bowl has a choice. If not, they are forced to take someone else.

 

[ThePiombino]

Theoretically they would almost have to. If Oregon wins out that would put them in the title game. that would include beating Stanford. Notre Dame being eligible would obviously means they had beaten Stanford which would put them at 9-3. So really there would be really nobody from the PAC12 for them to choose except maybe UCLA. But at the end of the day would the Rose Bowl rather have ND/OSU or UCLA/OSU.

Would LOVE a shot at OSU

 

[GoIrish41]

Would LOVE a shot at OSU

Me too. I am still not convinced OSU is anything more than a decent team with a weak schedule.

 

[gkIrish]

Playing OSU would be the ultimate risk/reward for me personally. Win and I can gloat over a dozen friends but lose and I have to hear it for years. Still hearing about the last time we played them.

 

[GATTACA!]

I don't know where it was or who was talking about it but the other day someone was talking about the difference in average drop vs average gain in rankings when two teams from the same conference play. Essentially the sentiment of the post was that the SEC gains more net spots from top 25 vs top 25 than the other conferences.

I was interested in this argument so i crunched the numbers. I considered every matchup of two top 25 teams, or teams within the honorable mentions of the AP. Every spot moved up earns a +1 every spot moved down a -1. I used the AP then switched to BCS at week 9.

#1 BIG 12 With a 0
The only contest the Big 12 has had with two top 25 teams was Oklahoma vs Texas Tech. The two switched spots

#2 is a tie the ACC and SEC both with a -3

One thing to consider with theses numbers is that the SEC is hampered by Alabama being number one, meaning they obviously gained nothing from their two respective wins over top 25 sec teams. The average gain for an SEC team is 7.66.., even if Alabama only received half of this gain from both of their games it still would have put the SEC in the black, and the #1 spot. Also coming as no surprise the SEC had by far the most of these match ups.

#4 BIG 10 -7

Both wins by ohio state kept them at #4

#5 PAC 12 with shockingly low -24!

The only gains the PAC 12 has had where this week oregon and Stanford moving up 1 spot each, and Stanford's jump after beating UCLA

These stats might be slightly off, i didnt really double check any of this so please go easy on me lol.

 

[ThePiombino]

I don't know where it was or who was talking about it but the other day someone was talking about the difference in average drop vs average gain in rankings when two teams from the same conference play. Essentially the sentiment of the post was that the SEC gains more net spots from top 25 vs top 25 than the other conferences.

I was interested in this argument so i crunched the numbers. I considered every matchup of two top 25 teams, or teams within the honorable mentions of the AP. Every spot moved up earns a +1 every spot moved down a -1. I used the AP then switched to BCS at week 9.

#1 BIG 12 With a 0
The only contest the Big 12 has had with two top 25 teams was Oklahoma vs Texas Tech. The two switched spots

#2 is a tie the ACC and SEC both with a -3

One thing to consider with theses numbers is that the SEC is hampered by Alabama being number one, meaning they obviously gained nothing from their two respective wins over top 25 sec teams. The average gain for an SEC team is 7.66.., even if Alabama only received half of this gain from both of their games it still would have put the SEC in the black, and the #1 spot. Also coming as no surprise the SEC had by far the most of these match ups.

#4 BIG 10 -7

Both wins by ohio state kept them at #4

#5 PAC 12 with shockingly low -24!

The only gains the PAC 12 has had where this week oregon and Stanford moving up 1 spot each, and Stanford's jump after beating UCLA

***These stats might be slightly off, i didnt really double check any of this so please go easy on me lol.

***Deadspin is hiring

 

[Irish YJ]

If I were to buy tix now guessing where the Irish end up.....

Guessing Pinstripe vs Cinci/Rutgers/Houston/Louisville. Don't think the Big 12 will have 7 bowl eligible teams.

 

[Circa]

If I were to guess, The pollster's are on Stanford's Nutts! and If we keep winning we will move up to set there SOS higher as they poll for us to lose! We beat them and were obviously in, I'm just tired of the politics of this CFB polling!! We all really don't know and It's hypocrisy! ESPN... Thanks now we do

 

[phork]

So paying for influence with a recruit isn't "doing something"? But that's not my issue with them: I've said it before.......... Oregon and their "arms race" of spending typifies everything that is wrong with college football. Oregon is all about style over substance. They couldn't care less about their athletes being students, they think that money is the answer to everything, and their fans are some of the most ignorant on the planet.

That's why.

Ever see Oregons recruiting classes? Pretty bad, they mine the diamonds in the rough. Also welcome to college football in the year 2013. If you ain't in, you are out.

 

[drayer54]

Stanford is the most overrated school on that list IMHO.

 

[koonja]

Stanford is the most overrated school on that list IMHO.

I'm not sure what list you're referring to, so sorry if this is off base, but IMO Miami is the most overrated top 15 team. They're the Michigan of the ACC.

 

[drayer54]

I'm not sure what list you're referring to, so sorry if this is off base, but IMO Miami is the most overrated top 15 team. They're the Michigan of the ACC.

Miami too, but they will drift deep down the slide this week... Stanford is the most overrated team on the BCS list in my opinion. Putting them ahead of Baylor should be a jail-time offense.

 

[stlnd01]

Putting [Stanford] ahead of Baylor should be a jail-time offense.

Really? Are you one of those who just likes video game offense?
I posted this earlier in this thread but Stanford has already played four, maybe five, teams that are better than anyone Baylor has played thus far. They've beaten four of them. Baylor has beaten... Kansas State?
I'll wait a couple of weeks before anointing Baylor, thanks.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Baylor will have plenty of games to prove if they are worthy. I think the jury is still out on them.

 

[drayer54]

Really? Are you one of those who just likes video game offense?
I posted this earlier in this thread but Stanford has already played four, maybe five, teams that are better than anyone Baylor has played thus far. They've beaten four of them. Baylor has beaten... Kansas State?
I'll wait a couple of weeks before anointing Baylor, thanks.

Baylor has no losses. The trees have lost to the Utes. Computers shouldn't like that.

#15,#23, & #25 isn't the juggernaut of them all. Especially when you see which teams those are.

I think Baylor is better than OSU and Stanford.

 

[RDU Irish]

stlnd01 logic is what has the entire SEC in the top 25 and never dropping.

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

Baylor has no losses. The trees have lost to the Utes. Computers shouldn't like that.

#15,#23, & #25 isn't the juggernaut of them all. Especially when you see which teams those are.

I think Baylor is better than OSU and Stanford.

Utah is better than every team Baylor has played so far this year.

 

[chubler]

stlnd01 logic is what has the entire SEC in the top 25 and never dropping.

I'd argue that the SEC doesn't drop because no one seems to want to consider that preseason #5 Georgia, #10 Florida, and a few other, less egregious offenders, aren't actually good. at all. and no one's bothered adjusting the valuations of wins and losses over them, either. Florida and Georgia are still being considered "quality" wins, or "acceptable" losses.

Take out those name brands, however, and you get two teams with the following resume:

Team A is 6-2, and has played 4 perpetual bottom dwellers, 2 mediocre teams firmly out of their division and conference races, and two ranked teams, one of which is a (highly questionable) AAC team. They beat both ranked teams, but lost to two of the mediocre, irrelevant teams.

Team B is 7-1, and played 3 laughers (FCS or FBS so bad they should be FCS), 2 perpetual bottom dwellers, and 2 mediocre teams firmly out of their division and conference races. They won those games, but their first game against a ranked team, they lost in overtime.

Does Team A (SCar) and Team B (Mizzou) sound like #14 and #9 in the nation to you?

Failure to go back and devalue wins over teams who aren't actually good is the real problem, IMO.

 

[stlnd01]

Baylor has no losses. The trees have lost to the Utes. Computers shouldn't like that.

#15,#23, & #25 isn't the juggernaut of them all. Especially when you see which teams those are.

I think Baylor is better than OSU and Stanford.

Based on what? Running up the score against a bunch of really crappy teams? Because that's all Baylor's done. They've yet to beat a major conference team with a winning record. They gave up 42 to West Virginia.
I get your point and a loss is a loss. But it's hardly a slam-dunk case for Baylor. I happen to think beating Washington, UCLA and Arizona State is more impressive than anything the Bears have done yet. For now I'll take Stanford.

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

RDU Irish and drayer54 logic would say that Fresno State and Northern Illinois should be top 10 teams.

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

Georgia was a good team when they beat SCAR. Injuries have killed them. You have to look how teams did following a loss, but it shouldn't discount how well they were playing when that match-up occurred.

 

[Wild Bill]

Georgia was a good team when they beat SCAR. Injuries have killed them. You have to look how teams did following a loss, but it shouldn't discount how well they were playing when that match-up occurred.

Healthy or not, Georgia can't tackle worth sh!t.

 

[phork]

Really? Are you one of those who just likes video game offense?
I posted this earlier in this thread but Stanford has already played four, maybe five, teams that are better than anyone Baylor has played thus far. They've beaten four of them. Baylor has beaten... Kansas State?
I'll wait a couple of weeks before anointing Baylor, thanks.

They beat the Kansas Schematic Advantages!

 

[GowerND11]

Georgia was a good team when they beat SCAR. Injuries have killed them. You have to look how teams did following a loss, but it shouldn't discount how well they were playing when that match-up occurred.

Their offense was good, but the defense left something to be desired. Injuries have clearly hurt them, but when they were "good" it was A&M good. Outscore your opponents. He11 they struggled with North Texas. Anyone remember that?!?!

 

[Kanye West]

Just win baby. This team is improving every week and is already much better than it was in 2.

 

[irishfan]

Theoretically they would almost have to. If Oregon wins out that would put them in the title game. that would include beating Stanford. Notre Dame being eligible would obviously means they had beaten Stanford which would put them at 9-3. So really there would be really nobody from the PAC12 for them to choose except maybe UCLA. But at the end of the day would the Rose Bowl rather have ND/OSU or UCLA/OSU.

Even if UCLA goes 10-2, they still have to play Oregon in the PAC-12 Champ and 10-3 could drop them below the Top 14.

Can a BCS bowl pick a "replacement" team who is outside of the Top 14? If not, I don't see any way that Oregon goes undefeated, we go 10-2, and there is a PAC-12 team sitting there in the Top 14. Whoever emerges from the South at 10-2 or 9-3 will lose to Oregon and drop out of the Top 14.

I think if we go 10-2 and Oregon goes 13-0, we're a lock for the Rose Bowl assuming they aren't allowed to pick a replacement 9-3/10-3 PAC-12 team that is outside of the Top 14.

I posted this two weeks ago, and I think its becoming increasingly likely, excuse me while I toot my own horn. http://www.irishenvy.com/forums/not...2-bowl-scenario-you-prefer-2.html#post1135705

 

[chubler]

Their offense was good, but the defense left something to be desired. Injuries have clearly hurt them, but when they were "good" it was A&M good. Outscore your opponents. He11 they struggled with North Texas. Anyone remember that?!?!

Exactly. SCar has one bad loss, to Tennessee, and one less bad loss to Georgia. They've only beat Mizzou and UCF. I'm not saying they shouldn't be ranked, but they're definitely overrated. ND is actually a great comparison:

We lost to Michigan, who were presumably playing great at the time, and has since sucked, but is still ranked.
They lost to Georgia, who were presumably playing great at the time, and has since sucked.
We lost to Oklahoma, who most everyone agrees is a legitimate top 10 team.
They lost to Tennessee, who most everyone agrees is pretty bad.

as far as losses go, advantage seems pretty clear: ND

ND beat Temple, Air Force, Purdue, USC, Michigan State, Arizona State
SCar beat Kentucky, Arkansas, North Carolina, Vanderbilt, UCF, Mizzou

SCar ND Edge

Kentucky Temple SCar (slight)
Arkansas Air Force SCar (slight)
North Carolina Purdue Wash
Vanderbilt USC ND (Slight)
UCF ASU ND
Mizzou MSU SCar

So as far as wins, SCar has a slight advantage.

Schedules seem like pretty much a wash (got to give Spurrier props for that one, they play a better schedule than 90% of the nation)

Even if you want to add in the eye test, SCar has been squeaking by opponents much like we have. Their only blowout wins (by more than 2 scores) have been UNC by 17 and Arkansas by 45, much like our Temple (22) and Air Force (35). And they had to take Mizzou to overtime.

So why is SCar 14 while we're 25? IMO, people consider their loss to Georgia more acceptable than ours to Michigan. I can't figure another reason, unless the SEC slobber is really that bad in the poll voters.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

SBT's Eric Hanson just published an article on our BCS prospects. He quotes CBS's Jerry Palm, who confirms what most here have predicted: (1) if we win out, we're likely headed to the Orange Bowl against the ACC champ; (2) if we fall short, we're likely headed to the Pinstripe Bowl against the AAC champ.

 

[Irish#1]

Yes we will. They'll be around 15-17 going into the Stanford game. All of the teams currently in front are getting into the meat of their schedule, while ND is playing their softer portion. It will work itself out if they keep winning.

It's almost a mathematic impossibility that we wouldn't make the top 14 if we won our next 4 games. The only complicating factor would be 1 loss Louisville/UCF and no loss Fresno State/Northern Illinois. All of those teams currently play incredibly soft schedules and could/should win out potentially grabbing 4 top 14 spots. That might constrict the pool, leaving it hypothetically possible (but improbable) that we'd get left on the outside looking in.

More likely than not we'll find ourselves at 21-23 after this week, 18-21 after next week, 16-20 after the bye, 14-18 after beating a good BYU team, and 8-14 after beating Stanford (depending on what Stanford is ranked at the time, results of teams we've beaten, etc.). We really shouldn't worry about the rankings... we should worry about the 4 remaining games... which include two very tough contests against BYU/Stanford.

I get what you're saying, but aren't the regular polls still part of the BCS formula? If so, there are quite a few teams in front of us that have lost, but they aren't dropping very far when they lose. The ranked teams that play each other won't get hurt that much because they are losing to other ranked teams. I hope I'm wrong and will gladly eat crow if I'm wrong, but I just don't see it happening.

 

[arrowryan]

If we win out, I pray FSU doesn't get left out of the NCG or they don't win the ACC.