BCS rankings 2013

[kmoose]

This is why that recent insufferable fan poll was bull... In fact I'm almost positive they exclusively polled the south... Anyway, how can a fanbase be more obnoxious and delusional than tOSU fans??

I wonder how many of them realize that Oregon's Offense would hang 50+ on tOSU's Defense, with their eyes closed? I almost hope that they get what they wish. Almost.............. I still hate Oregon more than any other team in the Universe.

 

[stlnd01]

I wonder how many of them realize that Oregon's Offense would hang 50+ on tOSU's Defense, with their eyes closed? I almost hope that they get what they wish. Almost.............. I still hate Oregon more than any other team in the Universe.

Really? Why? They're annoying, with their fancy uniforms and whatnot. But I retain "most hated" status for teams that have actually done something offensive. Like, Ohio State or FSU.

 

[Buster Bluth]

I wonder how many of them realize that Oregon's Offense would hang 50+ on tOSU's Defense, with their eyes closed? I almost hope that they get what they wish. Almost.............. I still hate Oregon more than any other team in the Universe.

So would Baylor, Texas Tech, Arizona State, UCLA, etc. Ohio State's defense is oddly bad.

 

[Buster Bluth]

I think I can almost gaurantee that winning out would give Notre Dame an automate berth. They need to be top 8 for that to happen. Now that conference play is getting thick, teams will start dropping left and right. A modest three-position rise after each win, and five after Stanford. Championship Weekend will aid the Irish as the loser falls below Notre Dame. Throw in a bye week opportunity for other teams to lose, and Notre Dame is exactly where it needs to be.

week: record rankings | vs opponent
10: 6-2 #25 | vs Navy
11: 7-2 #23 | at Pittsburgh
12: 8-2 #19 | BYE
13: 8-2 #18 | vs BYU
14: 9-2 #15 | at Stanford
C: 10-2 #10 | BYE
B: 10-2 #8 | vs _____

Notable Week 10 games:
#21 Michigan at #22 Michigan State
#18 Oklahoma State at #15 Texas Tech

I expect Michigan and Oklahoma State to fall below Notre Dame.

We need to pray that BYU can beat Wisconsin, otherwise they will finish 10-2 and make a BCS bowl in all likelihood.

 

[phork]

I think I can almost gaurantee that winning out would give Notre Dame an automate berth. They need to be top 8 for that to happen. Now that conference play is getting thick, teams will start dropping left and right. A modest three-position rise after each win, and five after Stanford. Championship Weekend will aid the Irish as the loser falls below Notre Dame. Throw in a bye week opportunity for other teams to lose, and Notre Dame is exactly where it needs to be.

week: record rankings | vs opponent
10: 6-2 #25 | vs Navy
11: 7-2 #23 | at Pittsburgh
12: 8-2 #19 | BYE
13: 8-2 #18 | vs BYU
14: 9-2 #15 | at Stanford
C: 10-2 #10 | BYE
B: 10-2 #8 | vs _____

Notable Week 10 games:
#21 Michigan at #22 Michigan State
#18 Oklahoma State at #15 Texas Tech

I expect Michigan and Oklahoma State to fall below Notre Dame.

We need to pray that BYU can beat Wisconsin, otherwise they will finish 10-2 and make a BCS bowl in all likelihood.

Unless MSU goes to the BIG Championship and beats tOSU.

 

[gkIrish]

I think I can almost gaurantee that winning out would give Notre Dame an automate berth. They need to be top 8 for that to happen. Now that conference play is getting thick, teams will start dropping left and right. A modest three-position rise after each win, and five after Stanford. Championship Weekend will aid the Irish as the loser falls below Notre Dame. Throw in a bye week opportunity for other teams to lose, and Notre Dame is exactly where it needs to be.

week: record rankings | vs opponent
10: 6-2 #25 | vs Navy
11: 7-2 #23 | at Pittsburgh
12: 8-2 #19 | BYE
13: 8-2 #18 | vs BYU
14: 9-2 #15 | at Stanford
C: 10-2 #10 | BYE
B: 10-2 #8 | vs _____

Notable Week 10 games:
#21 Michigan at #22 Michigan State
#18 Oklahoma State at #15 Texas Tech

I expect Michigan and Oklahoma State to fall below Notre Dame.

We need to pray that BYU can beat Wisconsin, otherwise they will finish 10-2 and make a BCS bowl in all likelihood.

I don't think that's necessary. We will jump them with a win over Stanford. Only .006 behind them as it is.

 

[RDU Irish]

A few notes from looking at some rankings/schedules:

How the hell is Stanford #5 or 6 with a loss to a 4-4 Utah team? Quite the mulligan being handed out there. Should at least be behind Baylor and Miami.

Baylor plays Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Ok St the next three weeks. THAT is a rough stretch and we will see how good they are. Lots of football to be played in the Big12. BTW - Texas should hang a loss on at least one of T-Tech, Baylor or OKST.

Miami - They will be destroyed this week vs. FSU but otherwise have a nice path to 11-1. HOWEVER, you have to like them finishing the season AT PITT. Va Tech after FSU is another.

Wisconsin really needs to lose to BYU since Iowa, Minn, Indiana and Penn State represent the remaining Big1G "gauntlet" they have to run. Unfortunately the game is in Madison which is a pretty good home turf advantage.

SEC can bite me. LSU's schedule is weak in hindsight, now #11 Auburn is only team they played that is currently ranked while at gametime, TCU was #20, Georgia was #9 and Florida #17, LOSING to now unranked Georgia and Ole freaking Miss. How they are still #13 is amazing to me.

So Auburn is pumped up because they have only lost to (at the time) #6 LSU and beat the legendary two loss Johnny Football (by beat I mean outscored). They have played no one else, should finish 1-2 over the final three vs. Tenn, Georgia and Bama.

A&M has lost to the only two ranked teams they played and rank 97th in points allowed. I imagine they can lose to LSU and Mizzou to finish the season and still show up in the top 25 despite going 0-4 vs ranked opponents. But hey, should be a sweet highlight reel from the UTEP game this week!

I'm not sure we are able to leapfrog many of these eventual 3 loss SEC teams that are grossly overrated (So Car, Auburn, TAMU, LSU). Hopefully Tenn, Georgia and Florida can pull some upsets to drag down the conference.

 

[BobD]

November 7th looms large over Palo Alto. Oregon probably curb stomps them, but a win by the Cardinal would be fantastic.

Stanford has no home field advantage. The Oregon fans will be louder, there might even be more Duck fans than Cardinal.

 

[stlnd01]

A few notes from looking at some rankings/schedules:

How the hell is Stanford #5 or 6 with a loss to a 4-4 Utah team? Quite the mulligan being handed out there. Should at least be behind Baylor and Miami.

Pre-season rankings matter. But also, do you really think Miami would beat Stanford?

Baylor plays Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Ok St the next three weeks. THAT is a rough stretch and we will see how good they are. Lots of football to be played in the Big12. BTW - Texas should hang a loss on at least one of T-Tech, Baylor or OKST.

Gonna be a bunch of 8-4 and 9-3 teams in that conference when it's all through. Like always they'll send loads of them to bowls, but none to the bowls that matter.

Miami - They will be destroyed this week vs. FSU but otherwise have a nice path to 11-1. HOWEVER, you have to like them finishing the season AT PITT. Va Tech after FSU is another.

11-2 after the ACC title game. Could see them losing to Va. Tech or Duke too.

Wisconsin really needs to lose to BYU since Iowa, Minn, Indiana and Penn State represent the remaining Big1G "gauntlet" they have to run. Unfortunately the game is in Madison which is a pretty good home turf advantage.

BYU beating Wisconsin would help us all kinds of ways, but it's hard to see a two-loss, no-big-win Wisconsin team getting into the BCS ahead of us (especially as we beat a team that beat them).

SEC can bite me. LSU's schedule is weak in hindsight, now #11 Auburn is only team they played that is currently ranked while at gametime, TCU was #20, Georgia was #9 and Florida #17, LOSING to now unranked Georgia and Ole freaking Miss. How they are still #13 is amazing to me.

So Auburn is pumped up because they have only lost to (at the time) #6 LSU and beat the legendary two loss Johnny Football (by beat I mean outscored). They have played no one else, should finish 1-2 over the final three vs. Tenn, Georgia and Bama.

A&M has lost to the only two ranked teams they played and rank 97th in points allowed. I imagine they can lose to LSU and Mizzou to finish the season and still show up in the top 25 despite going 0-4 vs ranked opponents. But hey, should be a sweet highlight reel from the UTEP game this week!

I'm not sure we are able to leapfrog many of these eventual 3 loss SEC teams that are grossly overrated (So Car, Auburn, TAMU, LSU). Hopefully Tenn, Georgia and Florida can pull some upsets to drag down the conference.

All true but it's like crying about your electric company at this point. They've got a monopoly on the Top 15. That said, I have a hard time seeing three-loss teams getting into BCS games, no matter what conference they're from.

 

[cody1smith]

There will be a bunch of top 25 losses come out of the SEC in the next several weeks. Other than bama that whole conference is very even. That being said i think bama can drop one also. Keep winning and we will get our shot.

 

[Irish#1]

As much as I hate to say it, I'm not sure we get there even if we run the table. We've barely moved in the regular pools up to this time even as other teams lose. If we beat Stanford, we'll get a bump, but I would guess Stanford would be penalized more than we would be rewarded.

 

[rocket66]

As much as I hate to say it, I'm not sure we get there even if we run the table. We've barely moved in the regular pools up to this time even as other teams lose. If we beat Stanford, we'll get a bump, but I would guess Stanford would be penalized more than we would be rewarded.

Yes we will. They'll be around 15-17 going into the Stanford game. All of the teams currently in front are getting into the meat of their schedule, while ND is playing their softer portion. It will work itself out if they keep winning.

 

[IrishLax]

As much as I hate to say it, I'm not sure we get there even if we run the table. We've barely moved in the regular pools up to this time even as other teams lose. If we beat Stanford, we'll get a bump, but I would guess Stanford would be penalized more than we would be rewarded.

It's almost a mathematic impossibility that we wouldn't make the top 14 if we won our next 4 games. The only complicating factor would be 1 loss Louisville/UCF and no loss Fresno State/Northern Illinois. All of those teams currently play incredibly soft schedules and could/should win out potentially grabbing 4 top 14 spots. That might constrict the pool, leaving it hypothetically possible (but improbable) that we'd get left on the outside looking in.

More likely than not we'll find ourselves at 21-23 after this week, 18-21 after next week, 16-20 after the bye, 14-18 after beating a good BYU team, and 8-14 after beating Stanford (depending on what Stanford is ranked at the time, results of teams we've beaten, etc.). We really shouldn't worry about the rankings... we should worry about the 4 remaining games... which include two very tough contests against BYU/Stanford.

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

How the hell is Stanford #5 or 6 with a loss to a 4-4 Utah team? Quite the mulligan being handed out there. Should at least be behind Baylor and Miami.

Because they have beat good teams and have a great team. Miami has struggled against teams worse than Utah, who are pretty good, and Baylor hasn't played a single good team yet. Stanford crushed Arizona State and beat Washington and UCLA.

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

Ranked teams are going to start playing each other more often now. They are going to knock themselves off. Our computer rankings would let us jump an undefeated Northern Illinois and Fresno State (neither of whom should be ranked higher than ND in the first place), and maybe Louisville.

 

[ACamp1900]

They're just the worst.

You clearly have a larger base for this than I do... but I honestly don't know how you do it... I am assuming you have to bite your tounge a lot...

 

[ACamp1900]

On the flip side, and ND has a good team, don't misunderstand, but with Pitt, BYU and Stanford all remaining, winning out will be a challenge... Pitt is one of those teams that scares me every year regardless, it's just that kind of rival... BYU has a good team and we all know about Stanford...

it's still very much an uphill climb to the BCS...

 

[arrowryan]

Pre-season rankings matter. But also, do you really think Miami would beat Stanford?

You can't look at it like that IMO. Fresno and Northern Illinois would get waxed by the teams ranked 18-25. Stanford is severely overrated and they should be ranked #7 at best but I would put them #8 and behind Clemson

 

[RDU Irish]

IMO you should rank them as the year plays, not the pre-season. Unbeaten in the Big12 or ACC counts for something. They will have plenty of chances to lose, punish them when they do - not before. I don't doubt Miami will be exposed, until then they deserve to be in front of Stanford and Clemson.

I don't think you stay in the Top 10 if you lose to an unranked opponent. Drop back and wait in line. Stanford should be behind unbeaten ACC and Big12 schools and a number of one loss teams. Just like LSU and A&M should be 10 spots further back given the hindsight we now have. If you are going to credit Auburn to much for beating one team with a horrible defense, drop the losers proportionately. Outside of Alabama, it is TBD whether there are any other elite SEC teams this year.

 

[stlnd01]

You can't look at it like that IMO. Fresno and Northern Illinois would get waxed by the teams ranked 18-25. Stanford is severely overrated and they should be ranked #7 at best but I would put them #8 and behind Clemson

Why not? We're talking about a little more than half a season. The sample size is still fairly small. I think Stanford, with its one close loss and two wins over ranked opponents (four ranked at gametime) is better than a Miami team that, yes, is undefeated but has only beaten a very flawed Florida team and barely squeaked by two teams from the bottom half of its relatively weak conference. And Baylor hasn't beaten a soul. Look at their schedule. Stanford's probably played five teams better than anyone Baylor has so far.
Undefeated isn't everything, certainly not at this point in the year. We'll learn a lot the next few weeks.

 

[arrowryan]

Why not? We're talking about a little more than half a season. The sample size is still fairly small. I think Stanford, with its one close loss and two wins over ranked opponents (four ranked at gametime) is better than a Miami team that, yes, is undefeated but has only beaten a very flawed Florida team and barely squeaked by two teams from the bottom half of its relatively weak conference. And Baylor hasn't beaten a soul. Look at their schedule. Stanford's probably played five teams better than anyone Baylor has so far.
Undefeated isn't everything, certainly not at this point in the year. We'll learn a lot the next few weeks.

That's fair. Talking about not beating a soul, then OSU doesn't belong in the top 6. They squeaked by a Northwestern team that has done nothing but imploded since that game, an average at best Iowa team, and everyone else they have played is a cupcake besides Wisconsin.

 

[JTLA]

Wanna see a real meltdown?

Wanna see a real meltdown?

If Notre Dame finishes ranked #9 and Fresno State finishes ranked #16, Fresno will be in and ND could be out.

Oh BCS.

 

[Irish YJ]

If Notre Dame finishes ranked #9 and Fresno State finishes ranked #16, Fresno will be in and ND could be out.

Oh BCS.

At the end of the day, we have to take care of business on the field, which we did not for 2 games. Win them all, or at least all but 1, and we are fine. Lose 2, and rely on other things to happen. I am happy however that they playoff system starts next year.

 

[NDWorld247]

It's almost a mathematic impossibility that we wouldn't make the top 14 if we won our next 4 games. The only complicating factor would be 1 loss Louisville/UCF and no loss Fresno State/Northern Illinois. All of those teams currently play incredibly soft schedules and could/should win out potentially grabbing 4 top 14 spots. That might constrict the pool, leaving it hypothetically possible (but improbable) that we'd get left on the outside looking in..

Nevermind. See the post below.

Edit #2: It's only letting me post scenario #1. I'll keep trying.

 

[NDWorld247]

If a non-AQ school makes the top 12, or the top 16 and is ranked higher than an AQ champion (a real possibility since N. Illinois and Fresno St. are currently ahead of potential AAC champions Louisville/UCF/Houston), they will automatically make it. If that happens, there's likely only one spot, maybe two, open for ND depending on how the bowls decide to fill their tie-ins after the NC teams are determined.

Below are three examples based on a non-AQ (N. Illinois or Fresno St.) making it. Based on the scenarios below, ND may be Orange Bowl or bust for a BCS spot this year.

Note: the At Large #'s are in order of their selection AFTER the bowls select their NCG participant replacements.

Scenario #1
Title Game: Alabama vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl: Very likely they replace Alabama with a SEC school vs. At Large #2
Pac 12: Very likely they replace Oregon with a Pac 12 school vs. Big 10 champion (OSU)
Fiesta: Big 12 champion vs. At Large #3
Orange: ACC champion (FSU) vs. At Large #1

The Sugar Bowl would have an interesting decision. Do they replace Alabama with a SEC school and almost certainly end up with a SEC vs. Louisville/UCF (like last year) or SEC vs. N. Illinois/Fresno St.? They would almost have to considering the alternative would be a ND vs. those teams. I don't see how they could let a SEC team go to another bowl.

The same can be said for the Rose Bowl. Do they go with their traditional Pac 12 vs. Big 10 Rose Bowl or would they select ND over a 3-loss Stanford, UCLA, ASU, etc? This may be more likely than the Sugar passing on a SEC team, but the Rose Bowl loves keeping the Pac 12 vs. Big 10 tradition so who knows.

Assuming the Sugar and Rose stay true to their alliances, the Orange is our only landing spot in this scenario. The ONLY choice they have is the Big 12 #2 (Oklahoma, TT, Baylor) or Notre Dame. They can't pick a SEC and Pac 12 school as those conferences already reached their max, and they wouldn't pick an ACC or AAC school. Even though it would mean a return trip to Miami, I really like our chances of the Orange picking us over everyone else.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

If Notre Dame finishes ranked #9 and Fresno State finishes ranked #16, Fresno will be in and ND could be out.

Technically possible, but practically impossible. There are at least 3 at-large bids. A 9th ranked ND team simply would not be passed over.

Sagarin rates Fresno's SoS at 114th, and it's likely to drop even more given their remaining schedule. That's going to kill them in the computer polls. I doubt they finish the season ranked ahead of UL.

 

[gkIrish]

Someone on the Rose Bowl committee would murder someone else to get ND in that game. If they have the option of picking us that's where we will be.

 

[kmoose]

Really? Why? They're annoying, with their fancy uniforms and whatnot. But I retain "most hated" status for teams that have actually done something offensive. Like, Ohio State or FSU.

So paying for influence with a recruit isn't "doing something"? But that's not my issue with them: I've said it before.......... Oregon and their "arms race" of spending typifies everything that is wrong with college football. Oregon is all about style over substance. They couldn't care less about their athletes being students, they think that money is the answer to everything, and their fans are some of the most ignorant on the planet.

That's why.

 

[NDWorld247]

Someone on the Rose Bowl committee would murder someone else to get ND in that game. If they have the option of picking us that's where we will be.

You think they would break the Pac 12 alliance? If I'm off base on my assumption that they'd pick the Pac 12 #2, that's great news.

 

[KPENN]

You think they would break the Pac 12 alliance? If I'm off base on my assumption that they'd pick the Pac 12 #2, that's great news.

Theoretically they would almost have to. If Oregon wins out that would put them in the title game. that would include beating Stanford. Notre Dame being eligible would obviously means they had beaten Stanford which would put them at 9-3. So really there would be really nobody from the PAC12 for them to choose except maybe UCLA. But at the end of the day would the Rose Bowl rather have ND/OSU or UCLA/OSU.