Aug 31 | Miami

zelezo vlk

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It's wild that this game is happening how it is seeing as they bailed on the return trip here. We're playing in South Florida in August at night when they owed us a trip to South Bend... would've been a really soft 2025 schedule without this game, but still the circumstances are a bummer.
Was Miami supposed to be on the original 2020 schedule before COVID blew that whole thing up? It's crazy to me that Miami has ducked ND, playing only twice in the decade of the ACC agreement. Compare that to Clemson, FSU, and UNC, who have played 4 times, 5 times, and 5 times respectively.
 

RDU Irish

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I think the merc teams need more time to gel - I would rather have Miami week 0 than week 8. I share the concern of rolling over Miami with two weeks of fluffing biting us in the ass for TAMU. However in one week at a time isolation - I'll take it.
 

Some Irish Bloke

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Was Miami supposed to be on the original 2020 schedule before COVID blew that whole thing up? It's crazy to me that Miami has ducked ND, playing only twice in the decade of the ACC agreement. Compare that to Clemson, FSU, and UNC, who have played 4 times, 5 times, and 5 times respectively.
They backed out last year, which is why we added Army IIRC. "crowded nonconference schedule" was their reasoning. The irony is that SOS is one of the main reasons they were left out of the CFP at 10-2 lol
 

zelezo vlk

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They backed out last year, which is why we added Army IIRC. "crowded nonconference schedule" was their reasoning. The irony is that SOS is one of the main reasons they were left out of the CFP at 10-2 lol
Oh I remember them backing out last year. They were never gonna survive a November showdown in South Bend, especially with the direction the two teams were headed in late 2024. I just can't remember the pre-COVID 2020 schedule
 

KPENN

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Oh I remember them backing out last year. They were never gonna survive a November showdown in South Bend, especially with the direction the two teams were headed in late 2024. I just can't remember the pre-COVID 2020 schedule
They weren’t on the 2020 schedule originally.

It’s kinda crazy, since the ACC agreement this is what? The 3rd time they’ve played
 

GoldenBoy3

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My two cents. I do think the game is close. I’m thinking ND by 10. But this game being the first game I think is a big break for us. Beck missed all of spring camp and I don’t care that he feels juiced facing air with no equipment. We saw how off Leonard was at the beginning and got better as he gelled with the offense. Beck albeit more talented than Leonard, will be going through the same thing. A lot of transfers at WR and DB which may improve the trash they displayed last year but I’ve seen too many transfers underperform. Key will be getting a pass rush and not letting Beck sit there all day. Any sort of pressure is pick city.
 

Veritate Duce Progredi

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So their OL is more established. Top 10.
Their QB has more game experience, top 15.
How would you rank their top 1-2 RBs? Top 10 group? Top 25?
If you were to rank their WR room, would it be top 25?
TEs - where would you rank them?

DL should be top.....25? 15? Is that too high?
Secondary is a big question mark. Top 50? Top 30?
I really don't know so where would you guys rank their LB unit? Top 50?

Units don't individually win games, how they function together is far more critical.

if we do the same thing for ND....

QB is a ?
OL - firmly top 10
WRs - expected top 25 with probably a delta of 15. Could be top 10, could be top 40.
RBs - top 5, no question
TEs - probably top 25 is a good number where they could surprise but no guarantees

DL - I really think this is a top 15 unit with Young, Traore, Hinish, Dawson, Onye, Thomas, Rubio, Burnham, Tuihalamaka, Mukam and maybe a surprise. Lots of potential for breakout stars here and could be listed as much higher at end of season.
LB - firmly top 15 and could be much higher than that.
Secondary - firmly top 15 and could be much higher. Watts consistency is the only reason I left it at top 15 and not top 5.


Thoughts?
 

Some Irish Bloke

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I never really understood the whole “they brought it x amount of transfers so they must be good”.
It's hard to tell with transfers. I agree with you that simply bringing in 12 warm bodies isn't a good reason to say a team is going to be improved. Now if you can point to certain players (Malichi Fields putting up 1500+ yds, 20+ TDs the past two years with shitty QB play as an example) who have proven production, that's a different story.

I was also a big fan of bringing in Dawson. 4 sacks a year ago at DT + 10.5 career is at least something to point to. Sounds like he's had a great start to camp as well.
 

RDU Irish

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So their OL is more established. Top 10.
Their QB has more game experience, top 15.
How would you rank their top 1-2 RBs? Top 10 group? Top 25?
If you were to rank their WR room, would it be top 25?
TEs - where would you rank them?

DL should be top.....25? 15? Is that too high?
Secondary is a big question mark. Top 50? Top 30?
I really don't know so where would you guys rank their LB unit? Top 50?

Units don't individually win games, how they function together is far more critical.

if we do the same thing for ND....

QB is a ?
OL - firmly top 10
WRs - expected top 25 with probably a delta of 15. Could be top 10, could be top 40.
RBs - top 5, no question
TEs - probably top 25 is a good number where they could surprise but no guarantees

DL - I really think this is a top 15 unit with Young, Traore, Hinish, Dawson, Onye, Thomas, Rubio, Burnham, Tuihalamaka, Mukam and maybe a surprise. Lots of potential for breakout stars here and could be listed as much higher at end of season.
LB - firmly top 15 and could be much higher than that.
Secondary - firmly top 15 and could be much higher. Watts consistency is the only reason I left it at top 15 and not top 5.


Thoughts?

Our OL and Secondary seem like they should get Top 5 benefit of the doubt IMO.

Add coaching - we are a consensus top 5 unit and Miami might not be in the top 25. Pair that with roster turnover - sure 11 versus 8 returning starters doesn't look like a big difference but we are filling from our two deep while they are plugging in transfers. Continuity counts.
 

GoldenBoy3

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So their OL is more established. Top 10.
Their QB has more game experience, top 15.
How would you rank their top 1-2 RBs? Top 10 group? Top 25?
If you were to rank their WR room, would it be top 25?
TEs - where would you rank them?

DL should be top.....25? 15? Is that too high?
Secondary is a big question mark. Top 50? Top 30?
I really don't know so where would you guys rank their LB unit? Top 50?

Units don't individually win games, how they function together is far more critical.

if we do the same thing for ND....

QB is a ?
OL - firmly top 10
WRs - expected top 25 with probably a delta of 15. Could be top 10, could be top 40.
RBs - top 5, no question
TEs - probably top 25 is a good number where they could surprise but no guarantees

DL - I really think this is a top 15 unit with Young, Traore, Hinish, Dawson, Onye, Thomas, Rubio, Burnham, Tuihalamaka, Mukam and maybe a surprise. Lots of potential for breakout stars here and could be listed as much higher at end of season.
LB - firmly top 15 and could be much higher than that.
Secondary - firmly top 15 and could be much higher. Watts consistency is the only reason I left it at top 15 and not top 5.


Thoughts?
I love your point that units don’t win games. Chemistry is so incredibly important. The ND team we saw against Miami Ohio and NIU is not the team that faced UGA and PSU. The ND team from the first few weeks would’ve gotten waxed in those playoff wins. The had the greatest QB in their teams history last year and still couldn’t make it to the ACC Title game. Beck is only lethal with Brock Bowers and a clean pocket. I’m not buying into any of the CJ Daniel’s hype until I see it on field and their defense was absolute dreadful last year. And while their secondary was awful last season the DL was just as bad. GT ran for nearly 300 yards on them with a completely one dimensional game plan. Have fun facing a healthy and fresh Love and Price. My only concern is Carr/Minchey turning into Wimbush but I don’t see that. Run early and often and set up the short and intermediate passing game.
 

IRISHDODGER

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I never really understood the whole “they brought it x amount of transfers so they must be good”.
Agreed but I think the media’s perception is that Miami’s pass D was their Achilles Heel last season & they supposedly brought in some proven DBs to shore that up.
 

IrishLax

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So their OL is more established. Top 10.
Their QB has more game experience, top 15.
How would you rank their top 1-2 RBs? Top 10 group? Top 25?
If you were to rank their WR room, would it be top 25?
TEs - where would you rank them?

DL should be top.....25? 15? Is that too high?
Secondary is a big question mark. Top 50? Top 30?
I really don't know so where would you guys rank their LB unit? Top 50?

Units don't individually win games, how they function together is far more critical.

if we do the same thing for ND....

QB is a ?
OL - firmly top 10
WRs - expected top 25 with probably a delta of 15. Could be top 10, could be top 40.
RBs - top 5, no question
TEs - probably top 25 is a good number where they could surprise but no guarantees

DL - I really think this is a top 15 unit with Young, Traore, Hinish, Dawson, Onye, Thomas, Rubio, Burnham, Tuihalamaka, Mukam and maybe a surprise. Lots of potential for breakout stars here and could be listed as much higher at end of season.
LB - firmly top 15 and could be much higher than that.
Secondary - firmly top 15 and could be much higher. Watts consistency is the only reason I left it at top 15 and not top 5.


Thoughts?
If you ask "who would start for ND" they have like a half dozen guys and that's it.

Mauigoa for sure, and then could make the argument with Jagusah out that one of their IOL would start. RB nope. WR maybe they have one guy who would push Faison but no one is rated as a draft prospect the way Fields or Greathouse is right now. TE is kinda a wash, but Raridon clearly has more upside. So on offense it's Mauigoa, their $4M QB, and then maybe one of their WRs or an OL.

On defense they have Bain who is elite. Justin Scott would maybe be starting at ND this year but is still young. Xavier Lucas would compete for ND's 3rd corner spot. That's it. They may be starting 4 transfers in the secondary and they're all top portal guys but none of them is on par with Gray much less Moore and if you believe the hype our safeties should be *elite* again.

So it's 2-4 guys on offense, 1-3 guys on defense... 3-7 guys out of ~22.
 

IrishLax

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Agreed but I think the media’s perception is that Miami’s pass D was their Achilles Heel last season & they supposedly brought in some proven DBs to shore that up.
Yeah, Miami wasn't even Top 50 on defense last year and their pass defense was a joke. They upgraded to a more-with-less style guy from Minnesota and brought in a brand new secondary where ever single guy is considered a quality player. Xavier Lucas was the #1 CB in the portal and projects as a mid-round guy right now. Their one returning starter who is penciled in also had a really strong freshman season. So they *could* have two shut down corners, but neither one of them had a coverage grade as high as Christian Gray last year.
 

MPClinton22

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This crap is why ESPN is a total joke. To equate our secondaries and say we both “have questions” is so outrageous. One has proof over many seasons of being a top 25+ unit year in and out. The other tripped over its own dick repeatedly last year.

IMG_4870.jpeg
 

Giddyup

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We’ve got a fresh qb. We might need to pull the breaks on our aspirations. Most 1 yr qb in the nfl goes through growing pains. Not sure we can win it all with these green horns, objectively
 

Crazy Balki

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Seems like ESPN is weighing experience at QB heavily, but experience alone isn't enough. Carson Beck is coming off a serious injury and went a large chunk of the offseason not even throwing the ball, much less practicing and learning the offense.

And if we look at last season, Beck's track record against good defenses is less than stellar. His resume against DFEI top 40 teams in 2024:

vs. Clemson (27th): (23/33 278 yds 2 TDs)
@ Kentucky (39th): (15/24 160 yds 0 TDs)
@ Alabama (10th): (27/50 439 yds 3 TDs 3 INTs)
@ Texas (3rd): (23/41 175 yds 0 TDs 3 INTs)
vs. Florida (21st): (25/40 309 yds 2 TDs 3 INTs)
@ Ole Miss (5th): (20/31 186 yds 0 TDs 1 INTs)
vs. Tennessee (11th): (25/40 347 yds 2 TDs 0 INTs)
vs. Texas (3rd): (7/13 56 yds 0 TDs 0 INTs)

Sans the Tennessee and Clemson games, he was downright bad.

And while Georgia got piled on for their offensive issues, they had some real talent in 2024 with guys like Arian Smith, Nate Frazier, Trevor Etienne, as well as a great defense backing them. Smith in particular was severely underrated as a burner and Georgia's tandem of backs was very good. Miami doesn't have that, nor do they have the defense Georgia had.

And as we saw with Leonard, missing basically the whole spring puts a QB way behind when it comes to learning the system and developing chemistry with the offense. It took Leonard and the offense a few weeks to get things going, and that missed time played a huge role in ND's loss to Northern Illinois.
 

Crazy Balki

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We’ve got a fresh qb. We might need to pull the breaks on our aspirations. Most 1 yr qb in the nfl goes through growing pains. Not sure we can win it all with these green horns, objectively
First year starting QB's who won it all:

Greg McElroy (2009)
Cam Newson (2010)
AJ McCarron (2011)
Jameis Winston (2013)
Cardale Jones (2014)
Jake Coker (2015)
Trevor Lawrence (2018)

Not to say having a new starting QB with little to no experience isn't nothing, but it's definitely happened before. Even guys like Tua, whom was a freshman, dug Alabama out of a hole and won them a national title. Even Stetson Bennett had limited experience in 2020, and none of it was good experience because he played like turbo ass.
 

Jimmy3Putt

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We’ve got a fresh qb. We might need to pull the breaks on our aspirations. Most 1 yr qb in the nfl goes through growing pains. Not sure we can win it all with these green horns, objectively

We need to survive Sept leaning on our defense and running game. You can expect massive growth from the quarterback by the time the playoffs start.
 

Irish#1

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If this game was later in the season or at home I feel like ND wins by 14+. Not a knock on Miami... who is a legit Top 10 team with a ton of NFL talent on both sides of the ball... but the path to ND losing this game is basically:
1. Jitters on defense giving up a few big plays
2. QB mistakes killing drives or leading to bad turnovers

Miami brought in tons of players in the transfer portal and is counting on an overhauled secondary to take their defense from ass (67th in the country last year) to solidly in the top 25. Their new DC had a much less talented Minnesota defense ranked in the top 10. They are completely committed to the transfer portal adding four 4-star DB transfers among eight total 4-star transfers (for comparison, ND only added 2 total players rated as 4-star transfers).

So brand new secondary supposedly full of NFL players + $4M QB + two new highly rated WR transfers + a top rated OL... on paper, Miami is as good as anyone. This game is pretty much a litmus test on whether you are better off trying to develop talent how ND does or simply go shopping for "best available" players each year. They are likely starting 6-7 transfers on defense, and best case scenario for them they pull off an Indiana style 11-1 season with a team full of plug & play guys.
They may have closed the talent gap, but I'll take a team that has played together over a team cobbled together for the first time. These guys don't know each others tendencies and are new to their system. I don't see them playing flawlessly. It will be a close game IMO, but I think our lads will have control of the game for the most part.
 

Some Irish Bloke

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This crap is why ESPN is a total joke. To equate our secondaries and say we both “have questions” is so outrageous. One has proof over many seasons of being a top 25+ unit year in and out. The other tripped over its own dick repeatedly last year.
Definitely a lazy write up. We lost one DB from last year (Xavier) which is obviously a massive loss but so much hype around Tae that he leapfrogged Talich, who was the favorite to win the job in the Spring. 3/4 returners from an elite secondary doesn't scream "question mark."

Also, Clemson will be the ACC champion. They are the most talented team in the ACC by a wide margin IMO.
 
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Some Irish Bloke

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We’ve got a fresh qb. We might need to pull the breaks on our aspirations. Most 1 yr qb in the nfl goes through growing pains. Not sure we can win it all with these green horns, objectively
If only we had an elite running attack and plenty of veteran targets for the green QBs to cut their teeth with....
 

Huntr

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Definitely a lazy write up. We lost on DB from last year (Xavier) which is obviously a massive loss but so much hype around Tae that he leapfrogged Talich, who was the favorite to win the job in the Spring. 3/4 returners from an elite secondary doesn't scream "question mark."

Also, Clemson will be the ACC champion. They are the most talented team in the ACC by a wide margin IMO.


I think surficial analysis also looks at BenMo going to the NFL as a major loss, ignoring that he missed most of last year with the injury.

Like, if there's a group I'm not worried about in the slightest, after the RB's it's the DB's.
 

zelezo vlk

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Need an alt line of -9.5
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