AP Top 25 (ND #11)

[wizards8507]

Even if we win out, we might face what I will grandly call the "playoff paradox": you don't want to lose to the best team on your schedule, because they will/may then take your playoff spot. You'd rather lose to a team somewhere in the 7-25 range: a good team but not a team that will take your spot. If UGA wins out and we win out, they get our spot. If we are 11-1 and they are 11-1 with a loss in the SEC title game, then Alabama will get their spot but I doubt we then take somebody else's spot. (I suppose it's possible to take USC's "spot," but that won't get us in with the odds of there being 12-0 or 11-1 teams from the other conferences.)

In that scenario we'll end 11-1 and wish we had lost to MSU rather than UGA. Which would be annoying. Moving to an eight team playoff is hugely important for ND.

If we win out and they win out, they SHOULD get our spot.

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[stlnd01]

If we win out and they win out, they SHOULD get our spot.

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Of course they should. But this was a problem for our playoff aspirations in 2014 and 2015. Losing close to elite teams gets you respect but it doesn't, in the end, get you into the playoff. Especially without that guaranteed heavyweight showdown late in the form of a conference championship. We need to be "better" than TWO big five conference champions, plus any one-loss runners-up, and that's a tough road if you're not undefeated.

The grad student is right (I shudder to type that). The only route for a one-loss ND team to the playoff is to lose to the third or fourth-best team on our schedule, ideally early, while beating the elite ones.

 

[wizards8507]

Of course they should. But this was a problem for our playoff aspirations in 2014 and 2015. Losing close to elite teams gets you respect but it doesn't, in the end, get you into the playoff. Especially without that guaranteed heavyweight showdown late in the form of a conference championship. We need to be "better" than TWO big five conference champions, plus any one-loss runners-up, and that's a tough road if you're not undefeated.

The grad student is right (I shudder to type that). The only route for a one-loss ND team to the playoff is to lose to the third or fourth-best team on our schedule, ideally early, while beating the elite ones.

I agree with all of this. My disagreement is that I don't think we should be crying about needing an eight team playoff. Win games like Georgia and it becomes a non-issue.

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[snoopdog]

Interesting scenario

Nd 11-1
Undefeated Georgia beats undefeated Bama in the Sec championship by one point.

Who goes.

 

[dad4aa]

Even if we win out, we might face what I will grandly call the "playoff paradox": you don't want to lose to the best team on your schedule, because they will/may then take your playoff spot. You'd rather lose to a team somewhere in the 7-25 range: a good team but not a team that will take your spot. If UGA wins out and we win out, they get our spot. If we are 11-1 and they are 11-1 with a loss in the SEC title game, then Alabama will get their spot but I doubt we then take somebody else's spot. (I suppose it's possible to take USC's "spot," but that won't get us in with the odds of there being 12-0 or 11-1 teams from the other conferences.)

In that scenario we'll end 11-1 and wish we had lost to MSU rather than UGA. Which would be annoying. Moving to an eight team playoff is hugely important for ND.

Credit where credit is due...great post! I agree we need an 8 team playoff and not just for Notre Dame. How can you have Five power conferences and a four team playoff...it is ridiculous. It will most likely never happen but, in theory, all five conference champions could be 13-0. There will be no valid argument to justify keeping one of them out.

 

[dad4aa]

Interesting scenario

Nd 11-1
Undefeated Georgia beats undefeated Bama in the Sec championship by one point.

Who goes.

Supposedly you go by SOS and, the way Alabama's SOS is diminishing, it should be ND but that won't happen based on past years

 

[STLDomer]

Interesting scenario

Nd 11-1
Undefeated Georgia beats undefeated Bama in the Sec championship by one point.

Who goes.

Between us and Bama? Would probably depend on what kind of win Stanford is.

 

[wizards8507]

Interesting scenario

Nd 11-1
Undefeated Georgia beats undefeated Bama in the Sec championship by one point.

Who goes.

A Georgia blowout probably gets ND in, while a close game probably gets Bama in, unless USC or Stanford with the Pac-12.

 

[stlnd01]

I agree with all of this. My disagreement is that I don't think we should be crying about needing an eight team playoff. Win games like Georgia and it becomes a non-issue.

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As a fan of college football, the only sport where every game actually matters, I prefer the four-game playoff because it preserves the import of the regular season. As a fan of Notre Dame, I agree an eight-team playoff would make it a lot easier for us.

 

[GATTACA!]

A Georgia blowout probably gets ND in, while a close game probably gets Bama in, unless USC or Stanford with the Pac-12.

What about an Alabama blow out? I don't see the committee keeping in a team that just got blown out. Especially since they would be keeping them in the 4 spot ensuring a rematch of that same blowout.

 

[philipm31]

And another conf opponent just lost to........Troy. While Bama may be the top team in the country, the SEC is far from what it is talked up to be.



I agree, but Louisville v ND would be a shootout and fun to watch. Not sure we come out on top in that one.

THIS

The SEC is trash, overall. There is one ELITE team, two good teams (AUB and UGA) and the rest are hot garbage.

3/14 is NOT indicative of conference superiority.

 

[ulukinatme]

If you would have said 10 years ago that in the future Washington and Washington State will be the highest ranked PAC-12 teams (Huskies at #5, Wash St. just outside Top 10 at #11)...yeah, a lot of laughs would follow.

Stanford could easily lose 3 more games this year too and end the regular season 7-5.

 

[Irish#1]

Wouldn't it be nice for a one loss Irish team to be traveling to an undefeated Miami team later this year?

 

[IrishLion]

Moving to an eight team playoff is hugely important for ND.

I agree with all of this. My disagreement is that I don't think we should be crying about needing an eight team playoff. Win games like Georgia and it becomes a non-issue.

As a fan of college football, the only sport where every game actually matters, I prefer the four-game playoff because it preserves the import of the regular season. As a fan of Notre Dame, I agree an eight-team playoff would make it a lot easier for us.

If they ever move to an 8-team playoff, ND is in every year if they can just go 10-2 with a decent win on their resume.

 

[NDdomer2]

if they go to 8 game playoff are they still playing 12 regular season games?

 

[IrishLion]

if they go to 8 game playoff are they still playing 12 regular season games?

That's a good question.

I don't have an answer or even a way to provide an educated guess, but if I were the CFB Czar, I'd say that you only need 11 regular season games to be eligible for conference championships and playoffs, but you can play 12 regular season games if you want.

That means a lot of teams are only playing 2 non-conference games per year, though.

 

[Black Irish]

Why all the love for Miami? Yes, they're 3-0 but against three mediocre teams. Bethune, Toledo, and Duke. Maybe the 'Canes have a lot of potential, but they haven't beaten anyone yet.

 

[NDdomer2]

That's a good question.

I don't have an answer or even a way to provide an educated guess, but if I were the CFB Czar, I'd say that you only need 11 regular season games to be eligible for conference championships and playoffs, but you can play 12 regular season games if you want.

That means a lot of teams are only playing 2 non-conference games per year, though.

I think 11 would eliminate some of these teams ability to play sister mary of the woods and you gotta leave room for the conf championship games.

12 + CC + 8 team playoff is a lot of games for the eventual champ.

 

[stlnd01]

I think 11 would eliminate some of these teams ability to play sister mary of the woods and you gotta leave room for the conf championship games.

12 + CC + 8 team playoff is a lot of games for the eventual champ.

16 games is an NFL season.

 

[dublinirish]

Why all the love for Miami? Yes, they're 3-0 but against three mediocre teams. Bethune, Toledo, and Duke. Maybe the 'Canes have a lot of potential, but they haven't beaten anyone yet.

they have a bunch of big tall WR's which this season are the types of dudes which have been causing ND problems

 

[condoms SUCk]

IMO, for ND to make it into the playoff I see the following needing to occur.
1). Win out.
2). USC AND Miami win the Pac 12/ ACC
3). UGA finishes 10-2/ 11-1. Having a SEC Championship game appearance would be very helpful.

So ND would have beaten 2 conf champions, those two conferences would be "knocked out "so the 4 spots would go to
B10, SEC, ND, Big12.

 

[ulukinatme]

Why all the love for Miami? Yes, they're 3-0 but against three mediocre teams. Bethune, Toledo, and Duke. Maybe the 'Canes have a lot of potential, but they haven't beaten anyone yet.

I kind of feel that way about Penn State. So they've beaten an Iowa team by 2 points? An Iowa team that lost to MSU. Are we to be impressed by the wins against the Zips and Georgia Southern? #4 seems too high. At least Georgia beat us in our own house, I'd move them ahead.

 

[koonja]

Claypool officially a starter on the depth chart just released.

Stepherson not listed at all.

 

[JohnnyJasper]

Claypool officially a starter on the depth chart just released.

Stepherson not listed at all.

I love Claypool


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[PANDFAN]

Claypool officially a starter on the depth chart just released.

Stepherson not listed at all.

he wasn't in the miami oh game either and played

 

[OlympiaIrishFan]

Black Irish, same thing can be said for University of Washington. They have played nobody as well and are #6. And with all those 1st rounders playing last year they got s canned by Alabama.

I would rather come from the bottom and work our way up. We don't need the haters ripping on us for being overrated, I like when we earn it. If we beat Georgia this all would be a mute point.

It is just how this whole ranking thing is now.

 

[PANDFAN]

Black Irish, same thing can be said for University of Washington. They have played nobody as well and are #6. And with all those 1st rounders playing last year they got s canned by Alabama.

I would rather come from the bottom and work our way up. We don't need the haters ripping on us for being overrated, I like when we earn it. If we beat Georgia this all would be a mute point.

It is just how this whole ranking thing is now.

 

[vuirish]

Top 15 by the time SC comes to town?

 

[brewdog_14527]

Does ND record look better this morning with Georgia still looking good and Michigan St. going to Michigan and winning? ND seems to be the least talked about 5-1 team in the country.

 

[johnnycando]

Does ND record look better this morning with Georgia still looking good and Michigan St. going to Michigan and winning? ND seems to be the least talked about 5-1 team in the country.

Agreed.

Let's keep it that way.

We have a gauntlet to run through, and if we emerge unscathed we'll be playing play off football.

USC

NC St

Miami

Stanford

^ those teams all remain. Incredible.

Plus a trap game or two.