AP Top 25 (ND #11)

[wizards8507]

The only way ND gets in with a loss is if they beat a conference champion head-to-head and there's another "Weak" conference champion or one with two losses.

For example, if we beat USC and Stanford this year and then USC won the PAC12 we'd probably get the nod over them with our only loss coming to a (presumably) good Georgia. But then we'd likely lose out to Oklahoma (assuming they hold serve the rest of the year), the Big Ten champ, and the SEC champ in any scenario... which would make our only "in" a 2 loss team or a team we beat winning the ACC.

It's extremely hard for ND to make the playoff without going undefeated, and that just is what it is until it inevitably expands to 8 teams. Furthermore, it's not something we should really give a crap about until we have a team capable of truly competing for a championship.

Another risk to us is one-loss Power 5 teams who don't even play in their conference's championship.

Example: Ohio State runs the table to finish with one non-conference loss. They're undefeated in the Big 10 and win the Big 10 Championship. The winner of Penn State - Michigan will likely end the season 11-1 with their only loss coming to Ohio State. They'd have a very credible case against us.

 

[irishog77]

I have said this a number of times and I still firmly believe it.... given the exception that there are multiple power 5 teams with 1 or more losses comprising the top-5.... a 1-loss ND will NOT make the playoffs. EVER.

ND will have to be a clearly ranked # 1 or #2 or a very strong #3 heading into conference title week. It will be near impossible for them be a 1-loss team and ranked that high.

I think this is a big reason being ranked now (and at the beginning of the season) matters. People saying that it's fine that ND isn't ranked now have never really payed attention to how it shakes out at the end.

Voters don't change course weekly and over the course of the season. Teams like fsu are currently ranked because voters still need to rationalize having them #3 to start the season. And sure the selection committee has full autonomy to vote any way they see fit, but they don't live in a vacuum-- they're susceptible to polls, talking heads, social media campaigns, etc., and thus, are influenced like the rest of us.

TL;dr-- ND fans should always want ND to be ranked, and the higher the better.

 

[NorthDakota]

I have said this a number of times and I still firmly believe it.... given the exception that there are multiple power 5 teams with 1 or more losses comprising the top-5.... a 1-loss ND will NOT make the playoffs. EVER.

ND will have to be a clearly ranked # 1 or #2 or a very strong #3 heading into conference title week. It will be near impossible for them be a 1-loss team and ranked that high.

I wouldn't say ever.... but it gets complicated for ND no doubt.

Basically need SC or Stanford to be PAC champs. Bonus if they also beat F$U or Clemson. Need to win those games and lose a close game to a good, not great, team.

 

[bert2834]

I posted this same question on Facebook a week ago and of course people couldn't stay on topic.

Ohio State and Notre Dame have 1 loss a piece to Oklahoma and Georgia respectively.

Let's say that they both win out and Oklahoma, Georgia, and Clemson all go undefeated with Georgia being Bama's second loss.

Who makes the playoffs? OSU or ND?

 

[snoopdog]

Lucky for us that next years schedule is even tougher. Kind of makes the idea of being an independent ridiculous. If Notre Dame was really interested in the Natty, easiest way into the playoffs is an ACC title. And with cupcake scheduling this not a tall order.

 

[NorthDakota]

I posted this same question on Facebook a week ago and of course people couldn't stay on topic.

Ohio State and Notre Dame have 1 loss a piece to Oklahoma and Georgia respectively.

Let's say that they both win out and Oklahoma, Georgia, and Clemson all go undefeated with Georgia being Bama's second loss.

Who makes the playoffs? OSU or ND?

Should be ND. tOSU got punked at home.

Would be OSU.

 

[irishog77]

I posted this same question on Facebook a week ago and of course people couldn't stay on topic.

Ohio State and Notre Dame have 1 loss a piece to Oklahoma and Georgia respectively.

Let's say that they both win out and Oklahoma, Georgia, and Clemson all go undefeated with Georgia being Bama's second loss.

Who makes the playoffs? OSU or ND?

Too early to say. What happens with usc, stanford, miami, temple, and Navy? What happens with the rest of the big 10? Does ND continue to blow teams out? Does osu still somewhat struggle with teams?

 

[bert2834]

Should be ND. tOSU got punked at home.

Would be OSU.

Probably true.

 

[bert2834]

Too early to say. What happens with usc, stanford, miami, temple, and Navy? What happens with the rest of the big 10? Does ND continue to blow teams out? Does osu still somewhat struggle with teams?

Let's say yes on both questions.

 

[wizards8507]

I posted this same question on Facebook a week ago and of course people couldn't stay on topic.

Ohio State and Notre Dame have 1 loss a piece to Oklahoma and Georgia respectively.

Let's say that they both win out and Oklahoma, Georgia, and Clemson all go undefeated with Georgia being Bama's second loss.

Who makes the playoffs? OSU or ND?

Should be ND. tOSU got punked at home.

Would be OSU.

It would be Ohio State and I think it should be Ohio State, as that stretch would include wins against Penn State, at Michigan, and the Big 10 championship game. We'd have the better loss but they'd have better wins and a better overall SOS.

 

[irishog77]

Let's say yes on both questions.

Ok, but what about the other 2 questions?

If ND blows everybody out, osu does not....AND usc, stanford, temple, Navy, and miami all win out, while the big 10 sucks and osu squeaks by a 7-5 msu team in their conference championship game, then ND would probably get the nod. But all those things won't happen. So again, I say it's too soon. I think we could all discuss this a bit more intelligently in 9 or 10 weeks.

 

[NDohio]

Lucky for us that next years schedule is even tougher. Kind of makes the idea of being an independent ridiculous. If Notre Dame was really interested in the Natty, easiest way into the playoffs is an ACC title. And with cupcake scheduling this not a tall order.

Yes please...

 

[NorthDakota]

It would be Ohio State and I think it should be Ohio State, as that stretch would include wins against Penn State, at Michigan, and the Big 10 championship game. We'd have the better loss but they'd have better wins and a better overall SOS.

Getting wailed on at home cant be forgiven.

Michigan? What have they done? Lost to Ohio St... didn't the buckeyes get beat on by Oklahoma?

Penn St? You mean the team who lost to Ohio St who got punked by Oklahoma?


That bitchslap by Oklahoma SHOULD leave a bad bad taste in people's mouths along with getting steamrolled in the playoffs last year.


ND
1. Win over likely top 10 SC
2. Wins over Stanford and The U
3. Win over NC St
4. A 1 point loss to an undefeated team that beat Bama in the SEC title.

Similar resumes, OSU has shiny wins but... got beat convincingly at home.

 

[IrishLax]

I just love how quickly we can pivot from "Fire Kelly!" to gaming out playoff scenarios.

Yeah it's absurd. Especially because we're on pace for 9-3 NOT 11-1, and have our hardest games left to play.

Talk to me after SC. If we win and are 6-1 then it's time to start talking about bowls and "who to root for"... if we lose, then the discussion is moot.

 

[koonja]

I posted in the wrong thread:

I think it's all a moot point right now, and it matters a heck of a lot more 'how you look' in those wins/losses.

If we squeekby USC/Stanford and most of our wins are 2012-ish, while someone else is going HAM on opponents (ala 2014 Buckeyes), we don't get in. And frankly I don't want it.

But if we're stomping some good teams and showing that we belong, we will get in if Bama throttles Georgia.

Like it or not, the eye test matters a hell of a lot at the end of the year when comparing like teams. If we win out, we have our eye exam scheduled for 11/11 and 11/25.

 

[wizards8507]

You guys are no fun. We're playing Miami (OH) this week and the NFL kneeling thing is boring. We need something to talk about.

 

[koonja]

How about no season-threatening injuries through the first quarter of the year? Credit to Balis?

Either way, that's my favorite stat of the year thus far.

 

[Section20Row27]

I am an optimist... Sagarin has ND at 11. If we beat USC, that would be about right. If we beat the U and the Trees we should be in the playoff.

 

[RDU Irish]

How about if ND actually gives the committee this dilemma a few times before we start saying "absolutely" yes or no? I think a one loss ND who loses early in the year is in almost guaranteed. Lose late and they need a lot of magic to happen. Put up big numbers and it helps too. ND in the playoffs has huge $$$ value - we always play in a bigger bowl than we deserve, why would the playoff be any different?

 

[phork]

ND would have been 2 years ago had they not lost to Stanford. Over Oklahoma and MSU.

 

[ACamp1900]

You guys are no fun. We're playing Miami (OH) this week and the NFL kneeling thing is boring. We need something to talk about.

Isn't it freakin great!?! Best week of ND football in some time right here...

 

[greyhammer90]

ND would have been 2 years ago had they not lost to Stanford. Over Oklahoma and MSU.

Where are you pulling this from? They were ranked below Oklahoma going into that game. Oklahoma destroyed a top ten OK State team by roughly 35 points. ND barely *beats* Stanford on a last minute drive. I felt we were out before Stanford won on the miracle drive.

 

[snoopdog]

ND would have been 2 years ago had they not lost to Stanford. Over Oklahoma and MSU.

You don't know that....nobody does....best way into the playoffs is through a Conf championship.

Relying on the whims of the voters is never, ever surefire. doing it as an independent makes it even harder.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Where are you pulling this from? They were ranked below Oklahoma going into that game. Oklahoma destroyed a top ten OK State team by roughly 35 points. ND barely *beats* Stanford on a last minute drive. I felt we were out before Stanford won on the miracle drive.

I thought it was pretty common knowledge we were drawing dead if OU won, and don't remember anyone saying there was more than the tiniest sliver of hope with a win against Stanford, no matter how convincing.

Luckily it worked itself out, because after another "Fiasco" Bowl, a big game against Bama probably would have been even worse.

 

[IrishLax]

I thought it was pretty common knowledge we were drawing dead if OU won, and don't remember anyone saying there was more than the tiniest sliver of hope with a win against Stanford, no matter how convincing.

Luckily it worked itself out, because after another "Fiasco" Bowl, a big game against Bama probably would have been even worse.

We actually would've gotten another shot against Clemson if we'd snuck into the #4 spot. We somehow missed the playoffs and ended up getting saddled with the second best team in the country (with the most NFL talent, even more than Bama) instead of playing either MSU or Iowa who we would've been strictly better than or Clemson/Oklahoma who we could've been competitive with.

 

[Luckylucci]

As of today, I feel like Nd should be in the 15-20 range. I'd feel pretty comfortable getting matched up with most of those teams, at the present.

 

[irishfan]

11-1 Notre Dame with a 1 point loss to Georgia, is making the playoffs... a 10-2 team ND team isn't.. So in this case rankings don't matter.. Win out

11-1 ND with a loss to Clemson in a monsoon by 2 points wasn't making the playoffs in 2015.

 

[irishog77]

Another reason predicting the playoff teams this far out is we have no idea what the committee's mantra will be in 2017.

In 2014 it was "the best teams right now"
In 2015 it was "conference championships matter"
In 2016 it was "best overall teams"

Granted, these mantras are generally announced after the selections, to rationalize why they selected certain teams and left certain teams out. But what will we hear this year?

 

[ulukinatme]

I just love how quickly we can pivot from "Fire Kelly!" to gaming out playoff scenarios.

This team is pretty good right now. It's not the best team we've fielded, but the defense certainly seems much improved and we're running the ball very well with JUST enough passing to keep teams honest. Kelly screwed up last season, but he made the right call in cleaning house and bringing in Elko. It probably saved his job, or at least staved off the wolves. You get one Mulligan to fire your staff, after that any lack of success is completely on the head coach.

 

[ickythump1225]

I don't want to make the playoffs this year. I'd rather go 10-2 (or 11-1 on the outside looking in) and play a New Year's Six Bowl against a beatable opponent than sneak in #4 and get trucksticked by Alabama by 4 touchdowns. 11-2 with a big bowl win is better than 11-2 and another embarrassment.