kids/recruits like this is why I stepped back from following recruiting too closely.
As I'm sure its been said before, this scenario (Cali kid committing to ND) has played out many, many times before. Flat out, most of these don't pan out at ND (for various reasons). My experience seems to be if the kid commits and basically stays reasonably quiet since the commit date, they come to ND and what happens, happens.
However, the Cali committs that are high-maintenance (talking to recruiting services, media, other players, etc) typically do not pan out. Alot of them stretch out their recruitment to final day and select a school other than ND. So possibly losing a committ just doesn't register on my radar. Because....
In the BK-era, even if that Cali-kid comes to ND he has to survive BK's doghouse, and all of the various reasons why these 'high-impact' recruits dont see the field at ND seemingly till their junior year anyway.
I still say ND should do their due diligence go after these recruits, but just remember these are 18 year-old kids; I really believe most of them know where they want to go from day 1.