2030 - The World Post Covid

[Ndaccountant]

I thought it would be interesting to get everyone's idea on how each think the world will be different in 10 years because of Covid. To keep this focused and as politically neutral as possible, I am going to narrow this to three topics to make a prediction. Rank from one to three based on what you think is most likely (1) and least likely (3). Topics will be travel, how we "live", financial. Then, conclude with one really off the wall idea. I will start.

1) Travel - My prediction is that passports will now include information about all vaccinations you have received and are up to date on. You will not be allowed entry into countries without following their vaccination guidelines.

2) Financial - Due to inflation, the penny will be retired and everything will be priced to the nearest 5 cent or 10 cent. Additionally, William McKinley notes will return to printed tender.

3) How we "live" - Some social distancing measures will remain permanent, such as marked locations for waiting lines, continued reduction/ elimination of human interaction at point of sale transactions, more "stock" at home of essentials, including medical masks, disinfectants, etc.

Off the wall idea - At least one country that is around today will not be around in 2030.

 

[notredomer23]

I think we were already heading towards many jobs being remote. This is just going to expedite it. Other than that, not much is going to change.

 

[greyhammer90]

I think we were already heading towards many jobs being remote. This is just going to expedite it. Other than that, not much is going to change.

Same. I think this acted like a kick in the rump to a lot of businesses that would have already eventually gone to telecommuting, and is just going to set us forward about 6-7 more years than we would be in that regard.

Whether or not that's a good thing can be argued.

 

[NDohio]

I do think there will be some travel changes. The vaccination records on passports makes a lot of sense. I also believe people will be more aware when they travel on what is going in the countries where they will be traveling. Oh, and China is off limits.

By 2030 a lot of the social habits of people will be back to the way they were in January of 2020. I don't see social distancing being a thing in ten years. For the next 2-5? Maybe, but it'll slowly go back to "normal".

I really hope people start saving more. There are way too many people that have been completely blindsided by the financial ramifications of this shutdown.

 

[Irish Joe]

I have thought the "no contact" approach by food deliveries like GrubHub & Doordash could easily stick around

 

[Sea Turtle]

I think the handshake might be done. Maybe a Roman handshake or Roman right fist cross over to left chest bump or something.

 

[BobbyMac]

Same. I think this acted like a kick in the rump to a lot of businesses that would have already eventually gone to telecommuting, and is just going to set us forward about 6-7 more years than we would be in that regard.

Whether or not that's a good thing can be argued.

This topic has completely made our start-up stop and pivot.

This exercise in telecommuting will reinforce the trend towards and accelerate it's implementation. The average housed employee creates the need for 140 sqft. They also must be insured. Eliminating each sqft is a savings. Most analysts think the cost savings are greater than the loss of productivity from working remote.

This is going to have a huge impact on commercial real estate which will be a paradigm shift in the economy. Real Estate and Oil are bedrocks of the American/World economy and both are going to be under attack moving forward.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

This topic has completely made our start-up stop and pivot.

This exercise in telecommuting will reinforce the trend towards and accelerate it's implementation. The average housed employee creates the need for 140 sqft. They also must be insured. Eliminating each sqft is a savings. Most analysts think the cost savings are greater than the loss of productivity from working remote.

This is going to have a huge impact on commercial real estate which will be a paradigm shift in the economy. Real Estate and Oil are bedrocks of the American/World economy and both are going to be under attack moving forward.

I am curious about retail vs. E-Tail going forward. I suspect a lot of brick and mortars only continued to exist through inertia.

For example after Toys R Us died off here absolutely nothing took its place. Sure Target and Walmart have toy sections but they didn’t expand to pick up the slack. Nothing filled that hole.

The restaurant business has been growing by leaps and bounds over the last 20 years. IME, there is an age gap for dining in vs. carryout and it’s going to accelerate toward carryout. That will have weird economic effects because waiting tables is one of the biggest employment categories for people without post secondary education.

 

[notredomer23]

The restaurant business has been growing by leaps and bounds over the last 20 years. IME, there is an age gap for dining in vs. carryout and it’s going to accelerate toward carryout. That will have weird economic effects because waiting tables is one of the biggest employment categories for people without post secondary education.

I disagree on this point. I can't wait to go back to a restaurant and will once possible, and that's from someone that was an infrequent restaurant goer prior to all this (maybe 2-3/month, takeout once/week). Americans are going to be itching to get out of the house once we get the green light.

 

[BobbyMac]

I am curious about retail vs. E-Tail going forward. I suspect a lot of brick and mortars only continued to exist through inertia.

For example after Toys R Us died off here absolutely nothing took its place. Sure Target and Walmart have toy sections but they didn’t expand to pick up the slack. Nothing filled that hole.

The restaurant business has been growing by leaps and bounds over the last 20 years. IME, there is an age gap for dining in vs. carryout and it’s going to accelerate toward carryout. That will have weird economic effects because waiting tables is one of the biggest employment categories for people without post secondary education.

Correct on inertia.

Funny you mention Toys R Us. I worked for a company who bought 30+ TRU locations and are converting them into furniture stores. TRU didn't make it because:

3. Walmart, Target, Cotco & others carry "enough" toys
2. Amazon
1. Toys have shrinking demand. Kids move into video games and personal electronic devices at a younger age. Less time for Barbie's and GI Joe's. The average TRU store had an electronics dept of 2500 sqft (of a 30k sqft showroom) I promise you video games and PED's account for more than 1/12 of the dollars the avg kid gets in entertainment gifts.

The mobile delivery industry is benefiting from mass technology adoption by an age group that may grow out of it as they see the benefit of eating out as an escape from their older lives. But then again they may not. My girlfriend's 30 y/o daughter is here for the pandemic and before we got shut down in AZ we took here to a a couple of places and she had to IG what she was eating at both a high end steakhouse and a fantastic Mexican dive joint and commented she doesn't eat out besides where she works or other San Diego Brewery/restaurants when her friends are working. Besides that it's mobile delivery only.

I'm betting on mobile delivery's future. Fast food Co.'s are increasingly building points w/ smaller dining rooms for a reason.

 

[BobbyMac]

I disagree on this point. I can't wait to go back to a restaurant and will once possible, and that's from someone that was an infrequent restaurant goer prior to all this (maybe 2-3/month, takeout once/week). Americans are going to be itching to get out of the house once we get the green light.

In the short term? NO doubt.

 

[BGIF]

Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it.

Why should this time be different from any other?

Changes will take place but not specifically because of the CV19

1. Families use to travel with "Shot Books" for vaccinations. There are European countries now that require multiple vaccinations. Who is going to enforce it? The US has thousands of "lost" US visa holders unaccounted for. They were that way be 9/11 (when serious security measures were adopted, right?) and they are still unaccounted for.

How many foreigners already hold US citizenship by accident of birth or have an anchor baby to get the family in? Shot books will be deemed racist like border control.

The tourism industry will scream vaccinations hurt the economy. Then again if we can't enforce smallpox, etc with our own citizens how do you enforce it with international treaties and travel.


2 Isn't the penny already dead? Do vending machines still take nickels and dimes? I though quarters were essential minimal coinage.

With $15 minimum wage and Paypal, Apple Money or whatever it's called, etc why would there be coinage at all? Serious question.


3. The handshake may go but it won't be replaced by a Roman one, that encompassed contact on the whole forearm AND requires less separation that a handshake.

Marked locations will last till the tape wears out. They have to paint them first to make them permanent. We haven't reached that point. Plus you'll have the same problem we have today. 50 governors will scream, "That's MY decision" ala NY's Cuomo. We're still a nation of states NOT a central government.

There will be more kiosks and less personal interaction with employees but that's been the trend for several years. I check in at a kiosk at Delta, doctors offices, hospitals, etc already. Uber drivers are dead men making with self driving vehicles. Truck drivers will be next to lose their jobs and not because of social separation but because of automation. The kid outside Chick-Fil-A will be replaced by a kiosk that takes your blue tooth order from your car, or scanning the universal fast food sticker on your windshield. Your order will be bagged and boxed "handed" out to your car via a device like a pharmacy or bank drive thru. The excuse might be sold as preventative health, the bean counters will know it was reduction in force.

More disinfectants, masks, etc, yeah for about 6 months to a year. Just like every other time we've had a crisis. Emergency management people and The Weather Channel run hundreds of PSAs a year about emergency kits for hurricanes, tornadoes and the like and few comply. There will always be some preppers and there will always be a crowd complaining about NDaccountant buying all the toilet paper.

Likewsie people will still try and install a swimming pool and the backhoe will uncover some concrete mass buried in the back yard that will turn out to be another Cuban Missile Family Shelter that's been unknown to the past 3 homeowners over the past 50 years.

As far as preparations like ventilator stockpiles, etc the Governors(plural) Cuomo's and Speakers (plural) of The House will panel committees and write reports, and hold symposiums just like there was the year before Katerina devastated New Orleans. Recommendations were made but NO FUNDING was provided. Nothing was implemented. AND THEN THEY STILL REBUILT THE CITY BELOW SEA LEVEL! And the politicans will scream for Iowans and North Dakotans, etc far from the scene to pay for it through Federal Grants. They might even create some stockpiles than some aspiring
Geraldo Rivera, or Jake Trapper type will uncover some forgotten stockpile that was built but the maintenance was NEVER FUNDED so 10 years later the material is either spoiled or obsolete and more committees will be appointed, and more reports will be written. Congress will pass more unfunded laws, Governors will scream there's no tax dollars to implement ... and Oahu will post it's all the fault of the Trump de jour and he and the rest of the medical community collect their paychecks, count their days until retirement, and keep silent ... again.

Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it.

 

[Circa]

The fact that we all are giving up all of our rights over a scare tactic that people are paid to make the priority, Is as American as It comes these days.
I'm teaching my children to start a fire. The kind that inflames our inner being.


Tell me why stores need to close early? Tell me it has nothing to do with the scared of the dark (virus) situation. )purge)
What we have allowed to happen Is criminal. And everyone that wants to save their life because they couldn't give 2 shits about their own well being a year ago..
I say arrest all people that don't stay healthy, let them rot in jail like they did to those that smoked some herb or did some dmt.
All morons should be arrested Is like saying we should shut off our way of life because of ignorance.

 

[GoldenToTheGrave]

After leading the effort to punish China for covering up COVID-19, the precedent comes to bite us in the ass as for being the global Nexus of climate denialism for 40 years.

 

[Ndaccountant]

Why should this time be different from any other?

Changes will take place but not specifically because of the CV19

1. Families use to travel with "Shot Books" for vaccinations. There are European countries now that require multiple vaccinations. Who is going to enforce it? The US has thousands of "lost" US visa holders unaccounted for. They were that way be 9/11 (when serious security measures were adopted, right?) and they are still unaccounted for.

How many foreigners already hold US citizenship by accident of birth or have an anchor baby to get the family in? Shot books will be deemed racist like border control.

The tourism industry will scream vaccinations hurt the economy. Then again if we can't enforce smallpox, etc with our own citizens how do you enforce it with international treaties and travel.


2 Isn't the penny already dead? Do vending machines still take nickels and dimes? I though quarters were essential minimal coinage.

With $15 minimum wage and Paypal, Apple Money or whatever it's called, etc why would there be coinage at all? Serious question.


3. The handshake may go but it won't be replaced by a Roman one, that encompassed contact on the whole forearm AND requires less separation that a handshake.

Marked locations will last till the tape wears out. They have to paint them first to make them permanent. We haven't reached that point. Plus you'll have the same problem we have today. 50 governors will scream, "That's MY decision" ala NY's Cuomo. We're still a nation of states NOT a central government.

There will be more kiosks and less personal interaction with employees but that's been the trend for several years. I check in at a kiosk at Delta, doctors offices, hospitals, etc already. Uber drivers are dead men making with self driving vehicles. Truck drivers will be next to lose their jobs and not because of social separation but because of automation. The kid outside Chick-Fil-A will be replaced by a kiosk that takes your blue tooth order from your car, or scanning the universal fast food sticker on your windshield. Your order will be bagged and boxed "handed" out to your car via a device like a pharmacy or bank drive thru. The excuse might be sold as preventative health, the bean counters will know it was reduction in force.

More disinfectants, masks, etc, yeah for about 6 months to a year. Just like every other time we've had a crisis. Emergency management people and The Weather Channel run hundreds of PSAs a year about emergency kits for hurricanes, tornadoes and the like and few comply. There will always be some preppers and there will always be a crowd complaining about NDaccountant buying all the toilet paper.

Likewsie people will still try and install a swimming pool and the backhoe will uncover some concrete mass buried in the back yard that will turn out to be another Cuban Missile Family Shelter that's been unknown to the past 3 homeowners over the past 50 years.

As far as preparations like ventilator stockpiles, etc the Governors(plural) Cuomo's and Speakers (plural) of The House will panel committees and write reports, and hold symposiums just like there was the year before Katerina devastated New Orleans. Recommendations were made but NO FUNDING was provided. Nothing was implemented. AND THEN THEY STILL REBUILT THE CITY BELOW SEA LEVEL! And the politicans will scream for Iowans and North Dakotans, etc far from the scene to pay for it through Federal Grants. They might even create some stockpiles than some aspiring
Geraldo Rivera, or Jake Trapper type will uncover some forgotten stockpile that was built but the maintenance was NEVER FUNDED so 10 years later the material is either spoiled or obsolete and more committees will be appointed, and more reports will be written. Congress will pass more unfunded laws, Governors will scream there's no tax dollars to implement ... and Oahu will post it's all the fault of the Trump de jour and he and the rest of the medical community collect their paychecks, count their days until retirement, and keep silent ... again.

Pennies are still minted in the billions per year, costing the US taxpayer millions.

Cash is still the most frequent form of payment in the US and the cash in circulation has grown at a 5% annual clip for some time. Digital is obviously gaining, but it will take some time to move away, if ever. In the end, there will still be a demand for cash for the sake of privacy. Some people simply do not trust banks / credit card companies and the ability for people to hack.

 

[Ndaccountant]

After leading the effort to punish China for covering up COVID-19, the precedent comes to bite us in the ass as for being the global Nexus of climate denialism for 40 years.

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[ACamp1900]

I predict a new yomen class of small land holders will emerge across the country side as a high demand for labor makes the old serfdom model unsustainable....

 

[TorontoGold]

With companies rethinking office spaces now, and obviously some people will continue to work from home once this passes - is there a provision/section in the US tax code for the deductibility of home office expenses that would allow for a lot of people to start claiming utilities? Not sure what the US does bu Canada's rules are fairly vague, it boils down to majority of your time in the tax year you need to conduct your work at home with approval from your employer.

If there is good avenue for individuals to reduce their taxable income by their utilities for WFH I think this would be a benefit to the middle class.

 

[Ndaccountant]

With companies rethinking office spaces now, and obviously some people will continue to work from home once this passes - is there a provision/section in the US tax code for the deductibility of home office expenses that would allow for a lot of people to start claiming utilities? Not sure what the US does bu Canada's rules are fairly vague, it boils down to majority of your time in the tax year you need to conduct your work at home with approval from your employer.

If there is good avenue for individuals to reduce their taxable income by their utilities for WFH I think this would be a benefit to the middle class.

Funny you mention that. When the latest tax cuts went into effect, there was a focus on reducing itemized deductions. Most people focused on SALT deduction cap, which impacted many people. One thing put in there to further reduce those reductions was home office deductions. It used to be anyway could claim it, assuming they were itemized. But with the tax law change made it that you could no longer claim the deduction if you are an employee. People who are self employed and/or indep. contractors could/can still deduct. But the space/value you are claiming must solely be used for work, not dual purpose. Basically, can't claim your kitchen table.

 

[Irishize]

I agree on the travel changes but only if America can overcome their PC extremism as BGIF referenced. He’s right, those that get questioned or turned away are simply going to call “racism” so we will continue to cut off our collective nose to spite our face. Meanwhile the gov’t will require ID for everything except voting.

Ten years probably isn’t long enough for the country to recover from this but it may start getting better than the nadir. What’s the nadir? Who knows but at this rate, hyperinflation on par w/ the Weimar Republic wouldn’t surprise me if no plan is announced regarding an economic strategy for the nation. Sorry, I‘m making projections the same way the Imperial College did in regards to this pandemic.

Private health insurance will go away or be limited to the 1% (Many who are pushing for Medicare for All). If private insurance goes away completely, the wealthy will have concierge medical coverage and the rest of us will be at the mercy of the government making Americans wonder “were insurance companies this evil?”

 

[Irishize]

After leading the effort to punish China for covering up COVID-19, the precedent comes to bite us in the ass as for being the global Nexus of climate denialism for 40 years.

I don’t see rational folks denying climate change. I do see them denying it’s one of the top 5 issues facing the country & the world and denying that it can only be solved by higher confiscation rates of taxes from middle America to fix said climate. “If you just give us the resources....we can fix this planet and prevent more pandemics like COVID-19” (Yes, they will use this pandemic as a scare tactic to finally give in to “fixing” the climate)

 

[Old Man Mike]

This is one that I REALLY hope I'm wrong about, BUT: HUGE increase in "distant learning." Home schooling might increase quite a bit, but I'm more talking about college and graduate school. The isolation crisis is showing people that "hey, this can be done!". The "educational entrepreneurs" are saying "hey we can jump in here and promise everyone the Moon for half price!"

People who actually understand education are holding their heads and KNOWING that the non-contact ways of educating are POSSIBLE ON SOME THINGS, but seriously miss on others.

Americans, heavily into denial when it comes to saving a buck, will ignore the deficits involved to pocket the cash. The real game will be played when the big seriously technical employers decide whether or not certain sorts of students actually have a competitive education. Deciding that they don't, this accelerates their establishing in-house specific focus educational programs.

Bottomline: less persons get broad-based educations and the concept of "culture", which is partly and not insignificantly based upon shared knowledge of cultural matters, takes another big body blow. America slowly continues its drift into a society of separates going their increasingly individual ways and sharing less and less upon which a moral society can be based.

... and I hope I'm Wrong bigtime, but fear we're are basically there already even without further attacks on elite and broad-based education.


Notre Dame, Our Mother
Hope You can still stand strong and True
Proudly in reality
Streams Thy Gold and Blue
Glory's Mantle still cloak Thee
and Golden Remain Thy Fame
and our Hearts Forever
will LOVE Thee Notre Dame

and America forever
will PRAISE Thee Notre Dame.

 

[Sea Turtle]

I don’t see rational folks denying climate change. I do see them denying it’s one of the top 5 issues facing the country & the world and denying that it can only be solved by higher confiscation rates of taxes from middle America to fix said climate. “If you just give us the resources....we can fix this planet and prevent more pandemics like COVID-19” (Yes, they will use this pandemic as a scare tactic to finally give in to “fixing” the climate)

Also, they question whether it's caused by man or doing what climate has always done, change. It should be no surprise that it's getting warmer given the fact that we just came out of a mini ice age a few hundred years ago.

 

[RDU Irish]

More fist bumps, fewer hand shakes. Not so sure a basic respect for personal space will survive. I guarantee cleaning obsessively won't - people are too lazy. Will this motivate people to live healthier? Doubt it. Largely suspect out of sight out of mind within 5 years, not even 10.

School - Snow days will be practice work from home days. Already complete pansies over any form of precipitation - now they will have validation. Look for huge cost increases in education as they "need" the infrastructure to enable this and free internet for poor people will make Obama phones look like child's play. Massive explosion in K-12 spending on the way, IMO. Colleges won't be far behind - they love to spend money too.

Work - Sick leave will be a HUGE issue. The norm will become - work from home when sick instead of full sick day. That works for caring for kids or parents as well as self. People want/need to socially interact, many work from homers have been drug back into the office over the last half decade. However, I expect we will see more flex space - not dedicated offices. Take your stuff with you, rotate with people traveling or working from home so less space is needed in the office as others have alluded to.

I predict the flu will kill 50,000 in the US and half a million around the world in 2030 and very few people get COVID vaccinations.

 

[yankeehater]

If Bill Gates and to some extent Dr. Fauci have their way, it will be vaccines and microchips for everyone. Won't be able to work, travel, attend large gatherings unless you are chipped and have every vaccine they will offer.

 

[RDU Irish]

If Bill Gates and to some extent Dr. Fauci have their way, it will be vaccines and microchips for everyone. Won't be able to work, travel, attend large gatherings unless you are chipped and have every vaccine they will offer.

Well they won't "require" it but you will need to comply in order to go to the grocery store.

This whole thing wreaks of (paraphrasing) "they won't take your liberty by force, you will gladly give it up in exchange for "safety""

 

[Legacy]

Healthcare Utilization

Healthcare Utilization

You can also reflect on how you would utilize the healthcare system in the future. A recent study reported that "utilization of professional services decreased 65 percent and professional revenue based on total estimated allowed amounts decreased 45 percent." (Further results linked)

- When urgent cares reopen and physician offices encourage checkups and annuals, more people will delay visits.
- The impact on bottom lines for healthcare systems and physicians will be impacted
- Preventative care intervention and education will be impacted
- More TeleHealth
- As Medicaid and expanded Medicaid roles increase, the economic stresses on providers bottom lines and states increase
- More uncompensated care for those who lost employer-sponsored insurance
- More rural hospitals will close
- Dental visits will be less frequent
- More outdoor exercise to replace gyms
- Rehab facilities for patients ready for discharge from the hospital will be scrutinizing and limiting acceptances due to infectious concerns and profit margins
- State funding for public hospitals will increase due to losses in revenue
- Medical personal debt will increase
- More people without health insurance. Employers may replace full-time with part-time workers to avoid paying health insurance.
- Will more or less people get vaccinations?

 

[Irishize]

I think sports may be drastically different in regards to fans attending. I could see MLB reducing their regular season schedule....at least back to 154 games.

The revenue sports...both college & pro...will be interesting b/c they need & want as much revenue as possible. I just can’t seen status quo ever returning..

 

[Irish YJ]

My biggest hope is we make common sense changes to the supply chain in many areas, especially on the medical side of things. I also hope folks view Globalism a bit differently.

While I think we'll see a little more work from home, more tele doctor visits, etc., I think things will get back to normal for the most part.

 

[irishff1014]

My biggest hope is we make common sense changes to the supply chain in many areas, especially on the medical side of things. I also hope folks view Globalism a bit differently.

While I think we'll see a little more work from home, more tele doctor visits, etc., I think things will get back to normal for the most part.

I think you will see a change in sick time policy for the ones that can work from home and be effective. So if you get 7 sick days you may know get like 3 sick at home days. Where you still work and get paid but you it doesn’t cost you a sick day. And of course you have to put a limit on it because if not people will take advantage of it