2018 CFP Rankings

[IrishSteelhead]

2018 CFP Rankings

Honestly, I lean toward the "best", if teams have the same record. OSU's SOR is actually better than OK's too. Tied in FPI. OK's loss was at home, and OSU's loss was on the road. Regarding PU, they are likely the best 6 loss team, and had wins over 3 top 25 teams. Not your typical 6-6 dog. 4 of their losses were by 4pts or less. What OK does have going for them IMO, is that they beat a common opponent (TCU) by more.

OUs loss was a neutral site, in the home state of their opponent. It definitely was not a home game. I think the fact Purdue beat OSU to a bloody pulp is the issue, not that Purdue beat them. You simply cannot lose by four touchdowns to an unranked team, and expect favors down the road because you righted the ship for one game. That is just my opinion.


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[stlnd01]

This is part of the problem IMO too. Sure, you want the 4 BEST teams, but MOST DESERVING also needs to enter the equation. OSU should not get a pass for losing by 30 fucking points to a 6-6 team, just because they beat Michigan by a lot, and we all know they would do the same to Purdue if they played again.

The results of the games need to matter!!!!


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They absolutely do. But I'm not sure how Oklahoma is really any more deserving than OSU. Same record. Same string of too-close-for-comfort wins late in the season. Both have top ten offenses in terms of points per game. On defense, Ohio State is middling (57th of 130) while Oklahoma is bad (98th of 130). That could be chalked up to the conferences they play in.
Their overall SOS is very comparable. Assuming both win next week, their best wins match up like this. (using today's AP poll for the rankings)

Ohio State
#8 Michigan
#14 Penn State
#21 Northwestern

Oklahoma
#9 Texas
#15 W. Va.
#23 Army
#24 Iowa State

So it pretty much boils down to Ohio State having a much worse loss (but also the better win in blowing out Michigan), vs. Oklahoma having a joke of a defense. I'm not sure which I'd pick. Are you?

 

[Irish YJ]

OUs loss was a neutral site, in the home state of their opponent. It definitely was not a home game. I think the fact Purdue beat OSU to a bloody pulp is the issue, not that Purdue beat them. You simply cannot lose by four touchdowns to an unranked team, and expect favors down the road because you righted the ship for one game. That is just my opinion.


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i forgot the 3R was yearly at the cotton bowl.

i'd love to see vegas odds on OSU/Bama vs OK/Bama

 

[stlnd01]

OUs loss was a neutral site, in the home state of their opponent. It definitely was not a home game. I think the fact Purdue beat OSU to a bloody pulp is the issue, not that Purdue beat them. You simply cannot lose by four touchdowns to an unranked team, and expect favors down the road because you righted the ship for one game. That is just my opinion.

But Ohio State's loss to Purdue was at Ross-Ade. Home of the World's Largest Drum. I've got to think the drum is worth at least a TD.

 

[IrishFaninTX]

I disagree. You're in. Period. Even if OU, UGA and OSU should win, there's no way two of them would jump ahead of ND. I can't imagine any scenario where ND drops below 3rd, let alone gets pushed out.

Especially OSU. We already beat Northwestern and didn't lose by 29 to Purdue. I think the 4th team will be OU. I don't see Georgia winning this year.

 

[IrishFaninTX]

OUs loss was a neutral site, in the home state of their opponent. It definitely was not a home game. I think the fact Purdue beat OSU to a bloody pulp is the issue, not that Purdue beat them. You simply cannot lose by four touchdowns to an unranked team, and expect favors down the road because you righted the ship for one game. That is just my opinion.


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And they struggled vs Maryland and PSU. It's not like they've blown out every team they beat.

 

[Irish YJ]

I'd bet that OSU would be favored in a game vs OK.

 

[ulukinatme]

OUs loss was a neutral site, in the home state of their opponent. It definitely was not a home game. I think the fact Purdue beat OSU to a bloody pulp is the issue, not that Purdue beat them. You simply cannot lose by four touchdowns to an unranked team, and expect favors down the road because you righted the ship for one game. That is just my opinion.

But Purdue wasn't fighting tOSU that night, they were fighting Cancer...so tOSU couldn't be expected to compete against that. The loss should be thrown out completely.

I'm not kidding, there were Buckeye fans making rationalizations like that after the Purdue game. In all seriousness, fuck Cancer, but also fuck stupid rationalizations. They lost by 4+ scores against an unranked team, you have to live with that.

I'm okay with them going in at #4 though over OU, because they stand a far better chance of upsetting Alabama. I'd much rather face the Buckeyes this season than 'Bama. If they lose, we still get to see sideline shots of Urban Meyer suffering.

 

[dad4aa]

The paranoia and fear of "what might happen" is ridiculous. We just finished 12-0. One of only three Power 5 teams to do so and at this time are the only team with 12 wins over FBS schools. I would be shocked as hell if we dropped to 5 and were left out. I also do not see anyone moving ahead of us with a loss on their schedule. I am going to enjoy the season we have had and watch some good games next weekend with ohe only question I am having is who do we play in the CFP.

 

[ND88]

Desmond is cool?


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No.

 

[Dizzyphil]

The paranoia and fear of "what might happen" is ridiculous. We just finished 12-0. One of only three Power 5 teams to do so and at this time are the only team with 12 wins over FBS schools. I would be shocked as hell if we dropped to 5 and were left out. I also do not see anyone moving ahead of us with a loss on their schedule. I am going to enjoy the season we have had and watch some good games next weekend with ohe only question I am having is who do we play in the CFP.

reps

 

[ND88]

But Purdue wasn't fighting tOSU that night, they were fighting Cancer...so tOSU couldn't be expected to compete against that. The loss should be thrown out completely.

I'm not kidding, there were Buckeye fans making rationalizations like that after the Purdue game. In all seriousness, fuck Cancer, but also fuck stupid rationalizations. They lost by 4+ scores against an unranked team, you have to live with that.

I'm okay with them going in at #4 though over OU, because they stand a far better chance of upsetting Alabama. I'd much rather face the Buckeyes this season than 'Bama. If they lose, we still get to see sideline shots of Urban Meyer suffering.

It's a toss up as to which team has the worst fanbase: Michigan or Ohio St. They're two ugly lovers made for each other.

 

[Dizzyphil]

Offensive/Defensive Efficiency Ranks for Top 6 Teams in AP Poll



Alabama 2/2

Clemson 4/1

Notre Dame 20/10

Georgia 3/4

Oklahoma 1/90

Ohio State 7/42

 

[Irish YJ]

Offensive/Defensive Efficiency Ranks for Top 6 Teams in AP Poll



Alabama 2/2 =4

Clemson 4/1 =5

Notre Dame 20/10 =30

Georgia 3/4 =7

Oklahoma 1/90 =91

Ohio State 7/42 =49

not that it means everything, but big disparity between OSU and OK (42 total ranking points).

Also... We're closer to OSU, than we are to Bama/Clemson/UGA.

 

[dad4aa]

not that it means everything, but big disparity between OSU and OK (42 total ranking points).

Also... We're closer to OSU, than we are to Bama/Clemson/UGA.

Only because we have three games with no Book or Dex on the offensive efficiency

 

[Irish Insanity]

I disagree. You're in. Period. Even if OU, UGA and OSU should win, there's no way two of them would jump ahead of ND. I can't imagine any scenario where ND drops below 3rd, let alone gets pushed out.

You don't see a scenario where ND is lower than 3? If OU destroys Texas canceling their earlier loss but doing so in convincing fashion, I think they'd jump us to 3. And considering how we finished the season vs. how they would've, I would understand.

Agree, if OK avenges their only loss, they're in.

OSU though, to me, is probably the better team. Bama will score a TD on every series vs OK.

So IF the bold happens, and IF UGA wins convincingly, and we're uNDefeated, who gets left out and why?

And as I open my laptop to read IE, the ND vs. USC game replay comes on ESPN.....

 

[irishtrooper]

not that it means everything, but big disparity between OSU and OK (42 total ranking points).

Also... We're closer to OSU, than we are to Bama/Clemson/UGA.

I’m sure the efficiency numbers would be better pre-Book. All that matters is how they can perform now. I am seemingly in the minority that believes that we can compete with anyone, including Bama. Clemson and Bama have spent the year (with a few exceptions) beating up on teams that aren’t good. Even Bama homers would admit their schedule this year is pretty laughable. I do think they are the best team, but I don’t believe that our guys will crap themselves against them because they are so perfect......

I feel so much better about this team than any team ND has fielded since Holtz. During TW we were low scoring and when the lucky bounces stopped going our way, we crumbled. During CW we were good (mostly) on offense, but the defense lacked talent and speed. Even the previous BK teams were outmanned at so many positions. I don’t feel that way anymore. We have future pros at every level and more depth than we’ve had since the mid 90’s. E have an accurate QB that distributes the ball and some talent at the skill positions. Even better, there’s young potential behind that talent. The defense isn’t weak in the secondary, like it seemingly has been for 25 years. The LBs are good and there are numerous contributions from several on the DL led by Tillery/Okwara/Kareem.

I’ll admit Bama is better just about everywhere, but the gap isn’t insurmountable. Same with Clemson to a lesser extent. Come in motivated with a sharp game plan and I think ND can win.

I’ve heard too many people talk about how much better Bama/Clemson is than everyone else... The awesome thing is, we’ll actually get to see if they were correct. I don’t think they are. At the end of the day I’m very pleased that the program is on solid ground and headed the right way. Definitely great momentum and excitement around this team

 

[greyhammer90]

You don't see a scenario where ND is lower than 3? If OU destroys Texas canceling their earlier loss but doing so in convincing fashion, I think they'd jump us to 3. And considering how we finished the season vs. how they would've, I would understand.



So IF the bold happens, and IF UGA wins convincingly, and we're uNDefeated, who gets left out and why?

And as I open my laptop to read IE, the ND vs. USC game replay comes on ESPN.....

Bama or OU. Bama because in this scenario they were embarrassed in their last game of the season. OU because the Bama love is too strong despite them losing in convincing fashion in their last game.

 

[ThePiombino]

Is there anyway to get our offensive efficiency for the final 8-9 games of the year?

Offensive/Defensive Efficiency Ranks for Top 6 Teams in AP Poll



Alabama 2/2

Clemson 4/1

Notre Dame 20/10

Georgia 3/4

Oklahoma 1/90

Ohio State 7/42

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[Irish YJ]

Only because we have three games with no Book or Dex on the offensive efficiency

while i think we are much better (perhaps i should say much more consistent) with Book, we've still had two big O duds (USC and Pitt). While we won both, both were in big doubt until the 3 or 4th Q. Vandy and BSU where really never in doubt. And I put the most blame in all 4 games on O play calling. That said, not sure or total O would have been a whole lot better (had Book started the first 3). Better, yes, but not by a lot.

You don't see a scenario where ND is lower than 3? If OU destroys Texas canceling their earlier loss but doing so in convincing fashion, I think they'd jump us to 3. And considering how we finished the season vs. how they would've, I would understand.

So IF the bold happens, and IF UGA wins convincingly, and we're uNDefeated, who gets left out and why?

And as I open my laptop to read IE, the ND vs. USC game replay comes on ESPN.....

If UGA wins by a few, IMO it's Clemson, UGA, Bama, and ND (in that order)
If UGA wins by a lot (3 or more scores), it's Clemson, UGA, ND, and Bama.

Why is OU and OK left out? Because Clemson, UGA, and Bama are the best teams this year by a pretty good margin stat wise and by most all indicators, and ND is undefeated.

That's my opinion anyway.

If we're talking vegas, most people would bet the far on Bama, Clemson, or UGA vs the rest in contention.

 

[ND88]

I’m sure the efficiency numbers would be better pre-Book. All that matters is how they can perform now. I am seemingly in the minority that believes that we can compete with anyone, including Bama. Clemson and Bama have spent the year (with a few exceptions) beating up on teams that aren’t good. Even Bama homers would admit their schedule this year is pretty laughable. I do think they are the best team, but I don’t believe that our guys will crap themselves against them because they are so perfect......

I feel so much better about this team than any team ND has fielded since Holtz. During TW we were low scoring and when the lucky bounces stopped going our way, we crumbled. During CW we were good (mostly) on offense, but the defense lacked talent and speed. Even the previous BK teams were outmanned at so many positions. I don’t feel that way anymore. We have future pros at every level and more depth than we’ve had since the mid 90’s. E have an accurate QB that distributes the ball and some talent at the skill positions. Even better, there’s young potential behind that talent. The defense isn’t weak in the secondary, like it seemingly has been for 25 years. The LBs are good and there are numerous contributions from several on the DL led by Tillery/Okwara/Kareem.

I’ll admit Bama is better just about everywhere, but the gap isn’t insurmountable. Same with Clemson to a lesser extent. Come in motivated with a sharp game plan and I think ND can win.

I’ve heard too many people talk about how much better Bama/Clemson is than everyone else... The awesome thing is, we’ll actually get to see if they were correct. I don’t think they are. At the end of the day I’m very pleased that the program is on solid ground and headed the right way. Definitely great momentum and excitement around this team

Yoooooooooooon is better than Bama's kicker. No actual evidence to support this comparatively. I just feel it in my soul, ha.

 

[Irish YJ]

I’m sure the efficiency numbers would be better pre-Book. All that matters is how they can perform now. I am seemingly in the minority that believes that we can compete with anyone, including Bama. Clemson and Bama have spent the year (with a few exceptions) beating up on teams that aren’t good. Even Bama homers would admit their schedule this year is pretty laughable. I do think they are the best team, but I don’t believe that our guys will crap themselves against them because they are so perfect......

I feel so much better about this team than any team ND has fielded since Holtz. During TW we were low scoring and when the lucky bounces stopped going our way, we crumbled. During CW we were good (mostly) on offense, but the defense lacked talent and speed. Even the previous BK teams were outmanned at so many positions. I don’t feel that way anymore. We have future pros at every level and more depth than we’ve had since the mid 90’s. E have an accurate QB that distributes the ball and some talent at the skill positions. Even better, there’s young potential behind that talent. The defense isn’t weak in the secondary, like it seemingly has been for 25 years. The LBs are good and there are numerous contributions from several on the DL led by Tillery/Okwara/Kareem.

I’ll admit Bama is better just about everywhere, but the gap isn’t insurmountable. Same with Clemson to a lesser extent. Come in motivated with a sharp game plan and I think ND can win.

I’ve heard too many people talk about how much better Bama/Clemson is than everyone else... The awesome thing is, we’ll actually get to see if they were correct. I don’t think they are. At the end of the day I’m very pleased that the program is on solid ground and headed the right way. Definitely great momentum and excitement around this team

Any given Saturday..... sure, but thus far, Bama is in a league by themselves.

If you HAD to bet your life savings (no points, just plain even up), who would you bet on if ND played Bama, Clemson, or UGA next week?

Purely my opinion (but I'd guess Vegas would back me up), but we'd have like a 5% or less chance to beat Bama (17+pts), around 25% (10-13pts) to beat Clemson, 30ish% vs UGA (9-11pts), and I think we'd either be even to slight underdogs (-3 ish) vs OSU and OK.

For the record, I love this team, and feel that this is the best team since Holtz years (like you). I just can't buy into the blind faith thingy.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

You don't see a scenario where ND is lower than 3? If OU destroys Texas canceling their earlier loss but doing so in convincing fashion, I think they'd jump us to 3. And considering how we finished the season vs. how they would've, I would understand.

I disagree here. They still lost, and they're defense keeps any team they play in the game. (90th in efficiency? are you kidding?) I think our body of work is good enough to keep us a slim margin above the one loss conference champions. It would be some big time *uckery to bump us down to #4 to play 'Bama in favor of a one loss conf. champion with a shotty defense or a BAD loss to Purdue.

 

[arahop]

Only because we have three games with no Book or Dex on the offensive efficiency

Great point!

 

[jimmymac]

Has there been any discussion here about where the semi final will be played if it’s bama, Clemson, us, and Oklahoma? I thought Miami was the most likely destination, but would the committee make Alabama play in Dallas with oklahoma so close? Seems like our most likely scenario is playing in Dallas.

 

[irishtrooper]

Any given Saturday..... sure, but thus far, Bama is in a league by themselves.

If you HAD to bet your life savings (no points, just plain even up), who would you bet on if ND played Bama, Clemson, or UGA next week?

Purely my opinion (but I'd guess Vegas would back me up), but we'd have like a 5% or less chance to beat Bama (17+pts), around 25% (10-13pts) to beat Clemson, 30ish% vs UGA (9-11pts), and I think we'd either be even to slight underdogs (-3 ish) vs OSU and OK.

For the record, I love this team, and feel that this is the best team since Holtz years (like you). I just can't buy into the blind faith thingy.

I wouldn’t bet my life savings against anyone. Never bet for/against your favorite team (lesson I learned the hard way years ago). I don’t have “blind faith” as you suggest. I have confidence ND is better than you (and others) give them credit for being. There is definitely some degree of influence based on the 2012 Bama flop and the struggles against BSU and Vandy. It seems like the stink hasn’t completely worn off, and it won’t until they prove you (and others) wrong. I get that Vegas favors all these teams over us, but again the efficiency numbers and overall body of work includes some less than dominant performances. That being said, it is hard to deny that when a dominant team like Clemson barely squeaked by Syracuse at home it gets forgotten way more quickly than when ND struggles with Pitt or whatever. The nice thing is ND absolutely crushed Syracuse away from home. No real credit for that though. Talking heads would have you believe that it was only due to Dungey being hurt. If you watched the game, you’d know that’s not the case. The Orange were getting steamrolled that day anyhow.

I guess at the end of the day, we’ll just have to disagree on the huge gap you believe there is between ND and the upper tier. Again, the terrific thing is that this will all be settled on the field. If ND gets embarrassed, I will be very surprised.

 

[ACamp1900]

Has there been any discussion here about where the semi final will be played if it’s bama, Clemson, us, and Oklahoma? I thought Miami was the most likely destination, but would the committee make Alabama play in Dallas with oklahoma so close? Seems like our most likely scenario is playing in Dallas.

I think it's 1v4 in Miami and 2v3 in Dallas regardless of teams...

 

[ab2cmiller]

While I hate pOSU, I think I actually want them to make the playoff so they can be humiliated by Bama.

 

[jimmymac]

I think it's 1v4 in Miami and 2v3 in Dallas regardless of teams...

Pretty sure that’s not accurate, I thought it was based up proximity to 1 or something along those lines.

 

[IrishLion]

Offensive/Defensive Efficiency Ranks for Top 6 Teams in AP Poll



Alabama 2/2

Clemson 4/1

Notre Dame 20/10

Georgia 3/4

Oklahoma 1/90

Ohio State 7/42

not that it means everything, but big disparity between OSU and OK (42 total ranking points).

Also... We're closer to OSU, than we are to Bama/Clemson/UGA.

Only because we have three games with no Book or Dex on the offensive efficiency

Is there anyway to get our offensive efficiency for the final 8-9 games of the year?

ND jumps up to 4th in offensive efficiency if it just included the games Book has played.

ND is kind of in a class of its own.

It would look like:

Bama
Clemson
UGA

ND

Oklahoma
OSU

The only concerning thing is that the committee was lumping ND in with scUM and UGA, rather than looking at them as an isolated "pod," which would be closer to reality.