2018 CFP Rankings

[Irish YJ]

7:00pm Tuesday 10/30/18 on ESPN

Now is when $#!+ gets interesting.

Anyone have predictions of the first top 10?

 

[RallySonsOfND]

Bold Prediction - Alabama will not be number 1.

 

[Irish YJ]

http://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa...8-five-hot-debates/1ch1rzow4b81m10zigs3fxqclo

The first College Football Playoff rankings will be unveiled at 7 p.m. ET on Tuesday, which will lead to a chain reaction of arguments about the pecking order of teams, conferences and so much more.

It's made-for-TV drama, and those arguments will only intensify with each week. That is part of the sell, and it works, considering there are five Power 5 conferences but only four seats at the Playoff table. With that in mind, here are the five inescapable arguments that could unfurl for fans — and the Playoff committee — heading into the final month of the regular season.



Two-SEC Playoff argument, Part 1
This one should feel familiar because the same pattern has started to emerge. Alabama (8-0) is the best team in the FBS heading into November and one of four unbeaten teams left in the FBS heading into Saturday's matchup against LSU (7-1).

Georgia (7-1), which lost to the LSU, got back on its feet with a convincing 36-17 victory against Florida (6-2) on Saturday.

You know the next part. What if Georgia beats Alabama in a close game in the SEC championship? Would that be enough to let both teams in the College Football Playoff? Both teams made it last year, after all. There is that scenario where both could do it again.

As we learned last year, anything is possible when Alabama is involved. Which leads to the second argument:

Two-SEC Playoff argument, Part 2
This argument will only have a shelf life if LSU beats Alabama next week — which is seemingly the only way to derail an SEC West championship for the Crimson Tide. Of course, the Tigers would have to win out from there as well.

If that were to happen, then it's feasible Alabama would be locked out of the SEC championship game with a one-loss record for the second straight season. That one loss didn't keep the Crimson Tide out last year, and this team is better — especially on offense — with Heisman Trophy front runner Tua Tagovailoa.

We've seen LSU and Alabama play each other in the BCS championship game. There's no reason to believe they can't be in a four-team Playoff if this scenario were to unfold — especially if the Crimson Tide loses close at Tiger Stadium.

Now, for three arguments that don't involve the Crimson Tide or the SEC.

Michigan vs. Notre Dame, Part II
This one hasn't quite started yet. If the Irish and Wolverines both win out, there's a good chance both will be in the Playoff. The Week 1 regular-season matchup — which Notre Dame won 24-17 in South Bend — wouldn't come into play at that point.

If the Irish lose, however, then this argument could be a factor if it means the final spot in the rankings. Would Notre Dame's head-to-head victory weigh more than the Wolverines' schedule? How would the Big Ten championship game factor in? After all, the Irish play Northwestern — the front runner in the Big Ten West — next week.

Both teams have improved significantly since Week 1. Perhaps it would be appropriate if they had a rematch in the semifinal.

MORE: Texas' monument a house of cards

Big 12 vs. Big Ten champ
Let’s assume Alabama, Clemson and Notre Dame all win out and take the first three spots. That would leave three conferences scrambling for one spot, with the Pac-12 looking like the odd man out in that case.

It would be campaign season in the Big Ten and Big 12 if that were the case. Michigan has a better path than Ohio State, which could easily win out but is saddled by a 49-20 loss to Purdue. How would that stack up against a one-loss Oklahoma or West Virginia team, if it came to that?

It would be particularly interesting if it came down to Ohio State and Oklahoma — teams that are both armed with Heisman finalist quarterbacks in Dwayne Haskins and Kyler Murray, respectively. These teams settled it on the field the previous two seasons, and that was the difference in getting the winner in the Playoff both times. Will it happen off the field this time? Stay tuned.

UCF vs. two-loss mess
The Knights’ positioning will be talked about on Tuesday, and their Playoff hopes remain debatable at best. The best thing UCF can do is to continue to win while watching the two-loss mess pile up behind them. How does that work?

Let’s say Alabama, Clemson and Notre Dame win out. That’s fine. Washington State would need to lose to knock the Cougars out of the mix. The Knights should root for Penn State to beat Michigan, then for the Wolverines to win the Big Ten (knocking off Ohio State in the process). Then, they'd need to hope West Virginia and Oklahoma trade wins in the final week of the regular season and in the Big 12 championship game.

Would an undefeated UCF get in over a two-loss Big Ten or Big 12 champion? That will be a debate for another day, but it’s not an impossible question at all.

In fact, Knights fans should probably tweet about it for the next month.

 

[Irish YJ]

Bold Prediction - Alabama will not be number 1.

My mother's belches are much, much, bolder lol

 

[wizards8507]

I like max chaos. Notre Dame and Clemson win out. Alabama beats LSU but loses to Georgia close. ND, ACC, SEC, SEC. Three power five conferences are left out. Finebaum and Swarbrick run naked through the Rose Bowl. UCF fans riot in the streets of Epcot.

 

[bcole2]

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. ND
4. LSU
5. Michigan
6. Georgia
7. Oklahoma
8. UCF
9. Ohio State
10. Washington State

 

[koonja]

Why should Michigan be ahead of Georgia?

 

[bcole2]

Why should Michigan be ahead of Georgia?

Georgia may have the better win, but Michigan's resume is overall better. 4-1 against Power 5 teams above .500, while Georgia is 2-1.

 

[Irish YJ]

but UGA is SEC...
sarcasm not meant to be sarcastic

 

[Irish YJ]

1 Bama
2 Clemson
3 ND
4 LSU
5 UGA
6 scUM
7 OK
8 OSU
9 UCF
10 Wash St

 

[Blaise]

Georgia may have the better win, but Michigan's resume is overall better. 4-1 against Power 5 teams above .500, while Georgia is 2-1.

They also have the better loss...

 

[IrishLion]

Reminder: The CFP Ranking show is for ratings and to drive interest... that's it. Their rankings between now and December mean nothing, and don't follow the criteria they actually use for the final poll.

The "criteria" they use to discuss and explain their weekly rankings will vary from week-to-week and likely contradict itself, and then everything they've told you during the weekly shows will get thrown out the window when it comes time for them to *actually* make their top-25 prior to bowl draws.

When it's time for them to make the one set of rankings that matter, they'll look at names, records, and what happened in conference championships, and maybe common opponents and results... and then they'll pick the four teams that looked the best to their eyeballs. All the metrics and comparisons and ratings and analytics that they talk about between now and December will mean jack shit.

So don't get worked up when ND debuts at #2 behind Bama because of their strong win over scUM, only to see ND drop to #5 in three weeks after underwhelming wins over Northwestern and FSU, bumping ND out in favor of scUM or Georgia in order to create buzz.

If ND wins out, they're in at #2 or #3.

If they drop a game, completely ignore all media outlets as they debate the one-loss scenarios, because it will only drive you insane.

If they drop two games, start hoping for a good NY6 opponent for once.

If they drop three games, everybody panic.

 

[zelezo vlk]

If ND drops a game, I want Texas. Man would it be great to get some revenge for 2016 and embarrass a blue blood in a bowl

 

[IrishLion]

If ND drops a game, I want Texas. Man would it be great to get some revenge for 2016 and embarrass a blue blood in a bowl

They can drop a game and still make the CFP, but they would need scUM to win out, and would need to make sure the game they drop is NOT Northwestern, and they would need to beat Northwestern by more than scUM does in the B1G championship.

That's their most-clear path with one loss, outside of everyone not named Bama and Clemson somehow dropping another game each.

That's the simple one-loss debate, and why I'll be ignoring everything should the worst happen and ND loses to FSU, Syracuse, or USC.

 

[D-BOE34]

I think a very close loss to Syracuse is our only hope of losing and getting in.

 

[NDMIA]

Here's the basic eliminator (11 0 or 1 loss teams in Power 5 left) after this week's game and ranking the teams by SOS by Sagarin and ESPN.

Number. Team - Sagarin SOS - ESPN SOS - Aggregate - ESPN SOR
UNDEFEATED
1. Clemson - 34 - 29 - 31.5 - 1
2. Notre Dame - 45 - 46 - 45.5 - 2
3. Alabama - 60 - 56 - 58.0 - 4
1-LOSS
4. LSU - 6 - 5 - 5.5 - 3
5. Michigan - 23 - 18 - 20.5 - 7
6. Kentucky - 22 - 27 - 24.5 - 5
7. Georgia - 28 - 26 - 27.0 - 6
8. Oklahoma - 36 - 38 - 37.0 - 10
9. Wash St - 55 - 60 - 57.5 - 9
10. Ohio State - 57 - 62 - 59.5 - 8
11. West Virginia - 59 - 63 - 61.0 - 12

I hope the committee goes with Clemson as the number 1 team and then Alabama as number 2. The reason why is the SOS is tremendously better on Clemson's part. They also have a margin of victory of 29.7 points vs. Alabama is winning by 38.2 which isn't a crazy difference in margin of victory. So yes, Alabama is dominating it's cakewalk schedule this year and that's awesome, but Clemson is rolling better teams this year too and should be rewarded for that. I'd vote 1. Clemson 2. Alabama 3. Notre Dame 4. LSU. Notre Dame just needs to keep taking care of business and control what they can control. Playing a 5th year, 23 year old QB in front of his sell-out crowd for their biggest home game of the season will be a daunting task and I hope ND is up for it!

 

[irishog77]

Here's the basic eliminator (11 0 or 1 loss teams in Power 5 left) after this week's game and ranking the teams by SOS by Sagarin and ESPN.

Number. Team - Sagarin SOS - ESPN SOS - Aggregate - ESPN SOR
UNDEFEATED
1. Clemson - 34 - 29 - 31.5 - 1
2. Notre Dame - 45 - 46 - 45.5 - 2
3. Alabama - 60 - 56 - 58.0 - 4
1-LOSS
4. LSU - 6 - 5 - 5.5 - 3
5. Michigan - 23 - 18 - 20.5 - 7
6. Kentucky - 22 - 27 - 24.5 - 5
7. Georgia - 28 - 26 - 27.0 - 6
8. Oklahoma - 36 - 38 - 37.0 - 10
9. Wash St - 55 - 60 - 57.5 - 9
10. Ohio State - 57 - 62 - 59.5 - 8
11. West Virginia - 59 - 63 - 61.0 - 12

I hope the committee goes with Clemson as the number 1 team and then Alabama as number 2. The reason why is the SOS is tremendously better on Clemson's part. They also have a margin of victory of 29.7 points vs. Alabama is winning by 38.2 which isn't a crazy difference in margin of victory. So yes, Alabama is dominating it's cakewalk schedule this year and that's awesome, but Clemson is rolling better teams this year too and should be rewarded for that. I'd vote 1. Clemson 2. Alabama 3. Notre Dame 4. LSU. Notre Dame just needs to keep taking care of business and control what they can control. Playing a 5th year, 23 year old QB in front of his sell-out crowd for their biggest home game of the season will be a daunting task and I hope ND is up for it!

I agree. But I'd be willing to bet ND's remaining games in Chicago, NYC, and LA this year have a lot of pro-ND fans.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

1 Bama
2 Clemson
3 ND
4 LSU
5 UGA
6 scUM
7 OK
8 OSU
9 UCF
10 Wash St

Bingo.

 

[matman4593]

1 Clemson
2 Bama
3 ND
4 LSU
5 scUM
6 UGA
7 OSU
8 OK
9 Wash St
10 Kentucky

 

[Legacy]

The remaining one loss teams (8) include:
B10- Michigan, Ohio State
B12 - Oklahoma, West Virginia
SEC - Georgia, Kentucky, LSU
Pac12 - Washington State
ACC - none

Six of the eight one loss teams play each other, - (Mich-Ohio St, Okla-W.Va, Georgia-Kentucky) which will leave three of those standing.

This week, Alabama could give LSU their second loss and the Ga/Kty loser has their second loss. If West Virginia loses to Texas for their second loss and Michigan loses to Penn State, then:

One loss teams are down to:
Big - Ohio State (terrible loss)
B12 - Oklahoma (lost to Texas)
SEC - Georgia (loss to LSU)
Pac 12 - Washington State (loss to USC)

I can't see WSU losing to Cal. Chaos if Kentucky beats Georgia. Kentucky's loss is to Texas A&M and pulled out a win against Missouri last week on a questionable call on what would have been the last play of the game. Or if Alabama loses to LSU.

 

[koonja]

Why Michigan ahead of Georgia? Seems to be a consensus so maybe I'm in the minority that would put them ahead of Michigan.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

Why Michigan ahead of Georgia? Seems to be a consensus so maybe I'm in the minority that would put them ahead of Michigan.

Naw, Irish YJ and I are right there with you. WAYYY better quality wins than scUM, and their lone loss is just as good as scUMs IMO.

I expect UGA to be #5 tomorrow evening after their shellacking of Flo-rida.

 

[NDMIA]

Why Michigan ahead of Georgia? Seems to be a consensus so maybe I'm in the minority that would put them ahead of Michigan.

UM SOR: 7
UGA SOR: 6

UM SOS: 23 (Sagarin) 18 (ESPN)
UGA SOS: 28 (Sagarin) 26 (ESPN)

UM Margin of Victory: 6th
UGA Margin of Victory: 9th

UGA Football
@ #4 LSU 7-1 LOSS
vs #13 Florida 6-2 WIN
@ South Carolina 4-3 WIN
@ Missouri 4-4 WIN
Vanderbilt 4-5 WIN
Tennessee 3-5 WIN
Middle Tenn 5-3 WIN
Austin Peay 4-4 WIN

Michigan Football
@ #3 Notre Dame 8-0 LOSS
#20 Wisconsin 5-3 WIN
@ Northwestern 5-3 WIN
@ Michigan State 5-3 WIN
Maryland 5-3 WIN
Western Michigan 6-3 WIN
Nebraska 2-6 WIN
SMU 3-5 WIN

A win on a neutral field against Florida is the best win of the two teams, but I think Michigan is ahead of Georgia by a hair in the rankings. They are close in margin of victory, strength of schedule, strength of record, and their QB's are even neck and neck in the QBR rankings, and their losses are both the two best losses to have of the playoff contenders. I don't think there's a wrong answer for one over the other at this point, but things should be sorted out by the end of the season as Michigan still have Penn State and Ohio State while Georgia has Kentucky and Auburn on their schedule.

 

[DONTH8]

1 Clemson
2 Bama
3 ND
4 LSU
5 scUM
6 UGA
7 OSU
8 OK
9 Wash St
10 Kentucky

This one seems about right to me. I think you can argue with the georgia/michigan positioning, I think Ga will get the nod for 5 though.

They put Bama at 2 to show that they care about schedules and what not. Plus it adds a little shock factor and drama to it all.

 

[greyhammer90]

Anyone else get the feeling the cfb committee is going to do something fucky like put us at No. 1 or put Bama at No. 3? Feels like the first poll is always strange.

 

[ACamp1900]

Anyone else get the feeling the cfb committee is going to do something fucky like put us at No. 1 or put Bama at No. 3? Feels like the first poll is always strange.

Nothing would surprise me... Honestly though I legit do not care about these rankings, like at all. They've shown they'll flip from week to week and frankly business has to be handled before any of it matters anyway. The only way I'll know about who is where for the next few weeks is seeing it here or during ND's game.

 

[koonja]

Anyone else get the feeling the cfb committee is going to do something fucky like put us at No. 1 or put Bama at No. 3? Feels like the first poll is always strange.

I actually feel like this one is pretty predictable. Bama 1, Clemson 2, ND 3, LSU 4. They could argue Clemson over Bama or even ND over both, but what's the point for them? Eyes and reputation give you Bama 1, Clemson 2. They know enough of this will work itself out so why get weird IMO.

I do think they'll rank Georgia ahead of Michigan though. And I don't think that's wrong.

 

[IrishLion]

Anyone else get the feeling the cfb committee is going to do something fucky like put us at No. 1 or put Bama at No. 3? Feels like the first poll is always strange.

I think the screwiest they would get this time is putting LSU all the way at #2 to drum up interest in the Bama/LSU game and to create 'big' implications for future 'rankings,' and to remind everyone that they aren't scared of one-loss teams if they have good wins.

If they really wanted to be weird, they'd put Clemson at #1 and Bama at #3 to further drive the contrived controversy.

If they want to generate buzz with ND's name, they'd be better served by putting ND at #5 behind LSU and scUM and really messing with people and creating some outrage and hot takes.

 

[ACamp1900]

I think the screwiest they would get this time is putting LSU all the way at #2 to drum up interest in the Bama/LSU game and to create 'big' implications for future 'rankings,' and to remind everyone that they aren't scared of one-loss teams if they have good wins.

and then the loser of that game drops two spots.... lol

 

[greyhammer90]

I think the screwiest they would get this time is putting LSU all the way at #2 to drum up interest in the Bama/LSU game and to create 'big' implications for future 'rankings,' and to remind everyone that they aren't scared of one-loss teams if they have good wins.

If they really wanted to be weird, they'd put Clemson at #1 and Bama at #3 to further drive the contrived controversy.

If they want to generate buzz with ND's name, they'd be better served by putting ND at #5 behind LSU and scUM and really messing with people and creating some outrage and hot takes.

Is this what being "triggered" feels like?