2016 Presidential Horse Race

[wizards8507]

I like that you think in terms of risk matrices. It resonates with me for sure.

Trump has a higher expected value but I'm risk-averse when it comes to leaders of the free world.

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

U.S. Sent Cash to Iran as Americans Were Freed - WSJ

...according to Kirby, the payments were not related...because he knows there is no penalty for any lie in any forum...

They paid ransom. They paid ransom to get their dismal approval ratings up. They did not rescue anyone...they condemned other innocents who do not know they are ransom bait. Horrible.

Mrs Clinton will do more of the same.

Our enemies do not fear us and our allies do not trust us. I'm sure Israel appreciated this move.

 

[phgreek]

Everyone is entitled to vote however they want, but I'm afraid the majority of the country is slowly beginning to see the real Trump. And they don't like what they see. Hillary's post-convention bounce in the polls is at least partially due to the stupid things Trump has been saying over the past week. As election day gets closer, the country will begin to look more seriously at the two candidates. Hillary is certainly a flawed candidate, but Trump's lack of compassion, his disrespect, and his bigotry will be his downfall. The question is "How many Republicans will he take down with him?"

I'm not afraid of people voting their conscience...I just know where I am. I'm not sure there is much Trump can SAY, that makes what Hillary Clinton has DONE, less of an issue with me.

Now, in terms of winning...I've said Hillary will be the next president. Doesn't mean I like it.

 

[MJ12666]

Yeah, I know. But read the article. It is where I got most of my information.

My understanding to paraphrase is that Hillary has a character flaw that enables her to tell a white lie when she would be embarrassed to admit to the truth.

I wouldn't disagree.

But the article stops the whole process of criminalizing Hillary when it admits that the FBI director didn't feel she committed a crime.

Get this : The people that want to criminalize Hillary are making the same moral misjudgment she did when she told the lie that the article describes!

This is true. Comey did not feel that she had the requisite intent when she sent and received classified material via her personal server. However, just because Lynch decided not to bring charges does not mean that another prosecutor would do the same. A good argument can be made that she violated Executive Order 13526 and/or federal code 18 USC Sec. 793f. All depends on the prosecutor.

 

[wizards8507]

But the article stops the whole process of criminalizing Hillary when it admits that the FBI director didn't feel she committed a crime.

The OJ jury did the same thing. That doesn't mean he didn't do it. You can be guilty of a crime without being found guilty in a court of law.

 

[phgreek]

Trump has a higher expected value but I'm risk-averse when it comes to leaders of the free world.

Yea, I get that. For me, the risk in a vacuum w/o mitigation is what folks see here. How do you mitigate risk you can't see or know about. The likelihood that exists with Mrs. Clinton is pretty high. Trump, prolly not.

 

[BGIF]

with or without the 400 million cash???

The 400 million in cash doesn't matter as we gave Iran the money in Swiss Francs and Euros. Seems like the Iranians don't believe in dollars. Or somebody's on Obama's team realize dollars were a violation of U.S. law.

 

[Ultimate Penn St. Hater]

Report: Trump Kept Asking During Foreign Policy Briefing Why He Can’t Just Use Nukes | Mediaite

 

[phgreek]

Report: Trump Kept Asking During Foreign Policy Briefing Why He Can’t Just Use Nukes | Mediaite

I don't doubt he asked questions about the use of the weapon...I question the context under which that discussion was had.

I do think General Hayden tangentially touches on an issue...our foreign policy approach vacillates FAR too much based on politics...maybe the concept of Trump winning will get us back to international politics that transcends party politics. This is one place pendulum swing is NOT beneficial, and it needs to stop.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

Probably because Scooter was not the source of the leak. Richard Armitage was the leak.

CNN.com - Armitage admits*leaking*Plame's identity - Sep 8, 2006

While no one has been indicted for actually leaking Plame's identity, Lewis "Scooter" Libby, the former chief of staff to Vice President Dick Cheney, has been charged with perjury, obstruction of justice and lying to investigators for allegedly giving false information about his discussions with journalists about Plame.

Scooter intentionally propagated the leak. He used it for political advantage. The he engaged in subterfuge, and intentionally lied to throw investigators off track. He was indicted, prosecuted, convicted, and sentenced for his crime.

Just because Geo W. Bush commuted his sentence, doesn't mean he didn't break the law.

And we all know how the truth can be parsed! Did you ever have a sibling, and when the shit hit the fan, one of you tried to claim the other did it first? What did your parents say? Unless they said, "Just because someone else does it, it isn't less wrong when you do it," I know what is wrong with us trying to meet with real communication in this discussion.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

[/B]

I disagree...the only reason she did not get indicted is that "intent" was applied where there was no such language. You can argue all you want about the justification, but the laws that are applied to military people every day, and common folks everyday do not require "intent"...thats what fucking reckless and negligent behavior is, and it can be criminal.

Once again you are extrapolating. You need to read the law (regulation). And show me a potential crime that doesn't distinguish between intent and lack thereof, and I will show you a crime that absolutely requires intent to be present.

Did you get that?

This is true. Comey did not feel that she had the requisite intent when she sent and received classified material via her personal server. However, just because Lynch decided not to bring charges does not mean that another prosecutor would do the same. A good argument can be made that she violated Executive Order 13526 and/or federal code 18 USC Sec. 793f. All depends on the prosecutor.

You can argue the nuances all you want but sooner or later in that exercise, fact and logic abdicate for bull shit. Plain and simple. I really do not like Hillary, or Bill for that matter. But they are seasoned elected politicians with maybe the broadest range of experience and greatest talent that has come to the front door of the Whitehouse, knocking.

So my question is, wouldn't you rather have that kind of talent, and knowing what they are capable of, be able to bring impeachment proceedings? I would. As much as the Republican Party is demolished at this point of the campaign, any hijinks by the Clintons would equally ruin the Democratic Party. If Clinton wins this election and provides even slight coattails, the next four years is for the DNC to lose. Big.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

The OJ jury did the same thing. That doesn't mean he didn't do it. You can be guilty of a crime without being found guilty in a court of law.

These kind of public political cases are different than a murder case involving a private citizen. And timing is everything. After what happened in LA in the years preceding the OJ case, there was already little chance he was going to be convicted if the trial stayed in LA. AND, the police and prosecution, lied, committed misconduct, and planted evidence when they didn't even have to! These two things aren't the same.

And as well, you can be innocent of a crime and convicted. What is the count at of overturned murder convictions since DNA results have been available? 105?

 

[Buster Bluth]

U.S. Sent Cash to Iran as Americans Were Freed - WSJ

...according to Kirby, the payments were not related...because he knows there is no penalty for any lie in any forum...

They paid ransom. They paid ransom to get their dismal approval ratings up. They did not rescue anyone...they condemned other innocents who do not know they are ransom bait. Horrible.

Mrs Clinton will do more of the same.

Am I crazy or did the cash transfer coincide with not only the detainee release but also an agreement solving a dozen or so minor and major issues between Iran, the US/West, and the rest of the world? How does one go about showing this is directly tied to the detainee release?

 

[Buster Bluth]

Our enemies do not fear us and our allies do not trust us. I'm sure Israel appreciated this move.

Name me two good Middle East allies. I'll wait.

You could finish your sentence wit "our allies do not trust us to do their bidding for them ." We are the superpower, not them. We decide what's best for us and they can choose to get on board or not.

 

[phgreek]

Once again you are extrapolating. You need to read the law (regulation). And show me a potential crime that doesn't distinguish between intent and lack thereof, and I will show you a crime that absolutely requires intent to be present.

Did you get that?



You can argue the nuances all you want but sooner or later in that exercise, fact and logic abdicate for bull shit. Plain and simple. I really do not like Hillary, or Bill for that matter. But they are seasoned elected politicians with maybe the broadest range of experience and greatest talent that has come to the front door of the Whitehouse, knocking.

So my question is, wouldn't you rather have that kind of talent, and knowing what they are capable of, be able to bring impeachment proceedings? I would. As much as the Republican Party is demolished at this point of the campaign, any hijinks by the Clintons would equally ruin the Democratic Party. If Clinton wins this election and provides even slight coattails, the next four years is for the DNC to lose. Big.

Thats funny...yea I got it.

If Mrs Clinton was not Negligent, what was she then? Oh thats right she was "extremely careless" you got me Bogs...

Here is the law I apparently didn't read:

793(f) of the federal penal code (Title 18).
(f) Whoever, being entrusted with or having lawful possession or control of any document, writing, code book, signal book, sketch, photograph, photographic negative, blueprint, plan, map, model, instrument, appliance, note, or information, relating to the national defense, (1) through gross negligence permits the same to be removed from its proper place of custody or delivered to anyone in violation of his trust, or to be lost, stolen, abstracted, or destroyed, or (2) having knowledge that the same has been illegally removed from its proper place of custody or delivered to anyone in violation of its trust, or lost, or stolen, abstracted, or destroyed, and fails to make prompt report of such loss, theft, abstraction, or destruction to his superior officer—
Shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than ten years, or both.

I know what Comey did...or better I know the escape hatch he used...but don't tell me I am extrapolating, or I didn't read this...If anything YOU didn't.

 

[phgreek]

Am I crazy or did the cash transfer coincide with not only the detainee release but also an agreement solving a dozen or so minor and major issues between Iran, the US/West, and the rest of the world? How does one go about showing this is directly tied to the detainee release?

Does this give the appearance of having paid a ransom...

we can argue what was intended by the payment. I think those dozen or so things you reference could have been rolled into the other shit deal we did with Iran, including the payments/settlement on a topic still in doubt in The Hague.

So no I don't believe those folks are free w/o the payment. Looks like a duck, smells like a duck...

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

Name me two good Middle East allies. I'll wait.

You could finish your sentence wit "our allies do not trust us to do their bidding for them ." We are the superpower, not them. We decide what's best for us and they can choose to get on board or not.

Why two? As far as I'm concerned it's Israel with the US and everyone else ranges from "questionable" to "8th century Islamic ruling government."

Reading a few books about the war on terror through the Bush and Obama years, countries' governments like Pakistan and Turkey (mostly intelligence) have helped us in certain situations, but for the most part their people hate the US.

 

[Rack Em]

Name me two good Middle East allies. I'll wait.

You could finish your sentence wit "our allies do not trust us to do their bidding for them ." We are the superpower, not them. We decide what's best for us and they can choose to get on board or not.

That's so neocon of you.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Looks like I'll be writing in a vote for the American Solidarity Party this November. Here are articles about the party from both Catholic and evangelical perspectives.

Being one of the millions who normally vote but will undoubtedly stay home this election might send a signal, but it'll more likely be misinterpreted or completely ignored. The Prolife Movement is not seriously represented by either party at the moment, so perhaps a significant write-in campaign could make a difference there.

 

[MJ12666]

Scooter intentionally propagated the leak. He used it for political advantage. The he engaged in subterfuge, and intentionally lied to throw investigators off track. He was indicted, prosecuted, convicted, and sentenced for his crime.

Just because Geo W. Bush commuted his sentence, doesn't mean he didn't break the law.

And we all know how the truth can be parsed! Did you ever have a sibling, and when the shit hit the fan, one of you tried to claim the other did it first? What did your parents say? Unless they said, "Just because someone else does it, it isn't less wrong when you do it," I know what is wrong with us trying to meet with real communication in this discussion.

This is just plain asinine. The fact is that Fitzgerald knew the source of the leak shortly after starting the investigation as Richard Armitage basically came forward. Fitzgerald got a bug up his ass because the press would not divulge there sources. Heck he even put that liberal NY Times reporter in jail for a while. Then he got stuck and to justify all the time and money spent on the investigation so he indicted Libby. He must have been really proud of himself for that one.

I guess next you are going to tell us that the CIA under the direction of Bush were flying the planes into the WTC.

 

[ACamp1900]

Looks like I'll be writing in a vote for the American Solidarity Party this November. Here are articles about the party from both Catholic and evangelical perspectives.

Being one of the millions who normally vote but will undoubtedly stay home this election might send a signal, but it'll more likely be misinterpreted or completely ignored. The Prolife Movement is not seriously represented by either party at the moment, so perhaps a significant write-in campaign could make a difference there.

Eh, I have no doubt that many in power WANT the informed and free thinking staying home on election day.

 

[MJ12666]

Once again you are extrapolating. You need to read the law (regulation). And show me a potential crime that doesn't distinguish between intent and lack thereof, and I will show you a crime that absolutely requires intent to be present.

Did you get that?



You can argue the nuances all you want but sooner or later in that exercise, fact and logic abdicate for bull shit. Plain and simple. I really do not like Hillary, or Bill for that matter. But they are seasoned elected politicians with maybe the broadest range of experience and greatest talent that has come to the front door of the Whitehouse, knocking.

So my question is, wouldn't you rather have that kind of talent, and knowing what they are capable of, be able to bring impeachment proceedings? I would. As much as the Republican Party is demolished at this point of the campaign, any hijinks by the Clintons would equally ruin the Democratic Party. If Clinton wins this election and provides even slight coattails, the next four years is for the DNC to lose. Big.

No because the Clinton's only want one thing and that is money. Their actions indicate that they are obsessed by it. Plus HRC in particular has done absolutely nothing during her political career that indicate she has any talent what-so-ever to accomplish anything.

 

[ulukinatme]

Clint for President

Clint and Scott Eastwood: No Holds Barred in Their First Interview Together

ESQ: Your characters have become touchstones in the culture, whether it's Reagan invoking "Make my day" or now Trump … I swear he's even practiced your scowl.

CE: Maybe. But he's onto something, because secretly everybody's getting tired of political correctness, kissing up. That's the kiss-ass generation we're in right now. We're really in a pussy generation. Everybody's walking on eggshells. We see people accusing people of being racist and all kinds of stuff. When I grew up, those things weren't called racist. And then when I did Gran Torino, even my associate said, "This is a really good script, but it's politically incorrect." And I said, "Good. Let me read it tonight." The next morning, I came in and I threw it on his desk and I said, "We're starting this immediately."

ESQ: What is the "pussy generation"?

CE: All these people that say, "Oh, you can't do that, and you can't do this, and you can't say that." I guess it's just the times.

ESQ: What do you think Trump is onto?

CE: What Trump is onto is he's just saying what's on his mind. And sometimes it's not so good. And sometimes it's … I mean, I can understand where he's coming from, but I don't always agree with it.

ESQ: So you're not endorsing him?

CE: I haven't endorsed anybody. I haven't talked to Trump. I haven't talked to anybody. You know, he's a racist now because he's talked about this judge. And yeah, it's a dumb thing to say. I mean, to predicate your opinion on the fact that the guy was born to Mexican parents or something. He's said a lot of dumb things. So have all of them. Both sides. But everybody—the press and everybody's going, "Oh, well, that's racist," and they're making a big hoodoo out of it. Just fucking get over it. It's a sad time in history.

ESQ: What troubles you the most?

CE: We're not really … what troubles me is … I guess when I did that silly thing at the Republican convention, talking to the chair …

ESQ: I didn't say it was silly.

CE: It was silly at the time, but I was standing backstage and I'm hearing everybody say the same thing: "Oh, this guy's a great guy." Great, he's a great guy. I've got to say something more. And so I'm listening to an old Neil Diamond thing and he's going, "And no one heard at all / Not even the chair." And I'm thinking, That's Obama. He doesn't go to work. He doesn't go down to Congress and make a deal. What the hell's he doing sitting in the White House? If I were in that job, I'd get down there and make a deal. Sure, Congress are lazy bastards, but so what? You're the top guy. You're the president of the company. It's your responsibility to make sure everybody does well. It's the same with every company in this country, whether it's a two-man company or a two-hundred-man company… . And that's the pussy generation—nobody wants to work.

ESQ: You've campaigned for office. If you were going to write a stump speech for this election, what would you say?

CE: "Knock it off. Knock everything off." All these people out there rattling around the streets and stuff, shit. They're boring everybody. Chesty Puller, a great Marine general, once said, "You can run me, and you can starve me, and you can beat me, and you can kill me, but don't bore me." And that's exactly what's happening now: Everybody is boring everybody. It's boring to listen to all this shit. It's boring to listen to these candidates.

ESQ: What would you like to see change?

CE: I'd say get to work and start being more understanding of everybody—instead of calling everybody names, start being more understanding. But get in there and get it done. Kick ass and take names. And this may be my dad talking, but don't spend what you don't have. That's why we're in the position we are in right now. That's why people are saying, "Why should I work? I'll get something for nothing, maybe." And going around and talking about going to college for free. I didn't go to college for free. I mean, it was cheap, because I went to L. A. City College—it wasn't like going to a major university. But it was okay. And then, you know, I didn't finish, because I decided to become an actor, ruin my whole life. [Everyone laughs.]

ESQ: What do you think of Hillary?

CE: What about her? I mean, it's a tough voice to listen to for four years. It could be a tough one. If she's just gonna follow what we've been doing, then I wouldn't be for her.

ESQ: But if the choice is between her and Trump, what do you do?

CE: That's a tough one, isn't it? I'd have to go for Trump … you know, 'cause she's declared that she's gonna follow in Obama's footsteps. There's been just too much funny business on both sides of the aisle. She's made a lot of dough out of being a politician. I gave up dough to be a politician. I'm sure that Ronald Reagan gave up dough to be a politician.

ESQ: Scott, you would never go into politics, would you?

SE: I'd leave that for the birds. [Laughs.]

CE: When I harken back to my dad, I remember we left Redding and drove down here so he could get a job as a gas jockey at a Standard Station on the corner of PCH and Sunset Boulevard. But you travel five hundred miles, bring your family, rip up everything, and do that because that's the only job that existed. So I think, What would happen if he'd have said, "Oh, I can't do that?" Well, we'd have been begging for sandwiches at somebody's backdoor. Which is, I remember, one of the most affecting things that ever happened in my life. I was a little kid, five years old, and a guy comes to the back of our house and says to my mother, "There's a bunch of wood in the back. Could I chop that up for you, ma'am?" And my mother says, "We don't have money." And he says, "I don't want any money. Just a sandwich."

[Clint goes silent; his eyes well up.]

ESQ: Does that memory haunt you?

CE: It haunts me when I think of all the assholes out there who are complaining. I saw people who really had it bad. There was no welfare to catch, to fill the bill there. The guy just wanted a sandwich. Hopefully later on he got a job somewhere. He was a guy trying to exist, and that's the way people were then.

ESQ: You got a little choked up just now.

CE: It's a strange vision, when you see desperation like that. It was for a kid—I guess I became a kid for a moment. You know, when somebody says, "I don't want anything. I just want the bare necessities to exist."

ESQ: Do you find yourself dreaming about your father?

CE: Occasionally I do. I always regretted not asking him to play golf more often or do something, you know, hang out somewhere.

ESQ: Clint, do you still describe yourself as a libertarian?

CE: I don't know what I am. I'm a little of everything.

ESQ: Politically, you're the Anti-Pussy party?

SE: That's right. No candy-asses.

CE: Yeah, I'm anti–the pussy generation. Not to be confused with pussy.

SE: All of us are pro-pussy.

 

[irish1958]

That whirling sound you hear is Geoge Washington spinning in his grave. The Purple Heart is given for valor, bravery and wounds suffered in battle. Accepting that decoration by a draft dodger is an insult to every brave service man and women who legally deserve it is an outrage. (I served eight years in the USAF, and took care of our veterans at the Cincinnati VA.)

 

[phgreek]

That whirling sound you hear is Geoge Washington spinning in his grave. The Purple Heart is given for valor, bravery and wounds suffered in battle. Accepting that decoration by a draft dodger is an insult to every brave service man and women who legally deserve it is an outrage. (I served eight years in the USAF, and took care of our veterans at the Cincinnati VA.)

...I was kinda ass chapped over that whole thing too, and I'm not a vet. I mean I know the guy offered it, but if it were me I'd have given him a big hug, and said thank you, but then I'd have had to decline, as this is something I'm not worthy of, nor does it belong in politics.

 

[woolybug25]

Katrina Pierson: Khan supports Sharia law (he doesn't) - CNN Video


Pierson is Trumps campaign spokesperson. Is the type of libel Trump claims he will make easier to sue for?

 

[Ultimate Penn St. Hater]

Katrina Pierson: Khan supports Sharia law (he doesn't) - CNN Video


Pierson is Trumps campaign spokesperson. Is the type of libel Trump claims he will make easier to sue for?

Trump spokeswoman blames Obama for Captain Khan's death

12 Craziest Things About Trump's Spokeswoman Katrina Pierson | Alternet

 

[woolybug25]

Trump spokeswoman blames Obama for Captain Khan's death

12 Craziest Things About Trump's Spokeswoman Katrina Pierson | Alternet

That tweet with Obama eating spaghetti at the Last Supper cracked me up.

 

[Buster Bluth]

Why two? As far as I'm concerned it's Israel with the US and everyone else ranges from "questionable" to "8th century Islamic ruling government."

Reading a few books about the war on terror through the Bush and Obama years, countries' governments like Pakistan and Turkey (mostly intelligence) have helped us in certain situations, but for the most part their people hate the US.

Well you skipped the obvious one, Jordan.

Israel is not a good ally. In fact I can't think of a time when they've been dependable. They are as self-serving as the rest of us and would ditch the US for another friend of they thought it behooved them. There's a reason they has fairly good relations with the Soviet Union during the height of the Cold War.

Turkey is helping ISIS under the table and Pakistan housed Bin Laden and Taliban strongholds. Questionable would be an understatement in my view.

 

[NorthDakota]

No because the Clinton's only want one thing and that is money. Their actions indicate that they are obsessed by it. Plus HRC in particular has done absolutely nothing during her political career that indicate she has any talent what-so-ever to accomplish anything.

Mhm. Where would she be without Bill? A Yale Law grad who failed the DC Bar.

She's a low energy loser. Makes Frank Underwood look like the JP2