2016 Presidential Horse Race

[IrishJayhawk]

I'd say the leftward lurch of the Democratic Party is equally notable. The party's two front-runners are an avowed Socialist and an establishment candidate that has voiced consistent support for virtually every progressive policy du jour for the past 2 decades (abortion, strict gun control, government controlled health care). Liberals knock the GOP for its lack of moderate candidates, but where are the moderates on the Democrat side? Or has the national party's identity gotten so liberal that Hillary is now what the average Democrat thinks is centrist?

This has been discussed quite a bit. The Democratic party has drifted left, but the Republican party has moved much more quickly to the right.

The same is true of presidents.

And to your final question, the current President is a left of center, pragmatic, moderate.

Obama Is a Republican | The American Conservative

 

[Cackalacky]

This has been discussed quite a bit. The Democratic party has drifted left, but the Republican party has moved much more quickly to the right.

The same is true of presidents.

And to your final question, the current President is a left of center, pragmatic, moderate.

Obama Is a Republican | The American Conservative

Haha. I have said several times that Obama has been one of the better Republican Presidents in a few decades.

 

[brick4956]

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/YWnvBFwojNM" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[BGIF]

CNN - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

Projection: It's Trump


Trump wins Nevada GOP caucuses, Fox News projects | Fox News


Nevada Entrance Poll Results: How Trump Won - NBC News

 

[phork]

Ladies and gentlemen, your next President. Mr. Donald Trump!

 

[BGIF]

MSNBC

http://media4.s-nbcnews.com/j/newsc...fd4ae3a9b287317d675689.nbcnews-ux-600-480.jpg

Trump
Tells it like it is 82%
Outsider 50%
Immigration 60%
Bring Change 57%

Trump also won, by varying degrees, voters who are politically very conservative (38 percent), somewhat conservative (47 percent) and moderate (56 percent). He won both men and women, voters in every age group and evangelical voters as well as non-evangelicals.

The entrance poll suggests that many Trump supporters have been chomping at the bit to make their mark in Tuesday's caucuses. He got a 58 percent majority among those who say they made up their minds in this presidential contest more than a month ago.

Trump won all groups I saw posted on MSNBC EXCEPT Voters Who Changed Their Minds In Last Few Days. I don't recall the percentages but believe Rubio was 27% and Trump low 20s. There wasn't the hugh swing to Rubio or Cruz that I expected.

Rubio
Cruz
Trump
================

From CNN
Latino Voters
Trump 44%
Rubio 29%
Cruz 18%
Kasich 4%

 

[calvegas04]

Ladies and gentlemen, your next President. Mr. Donald Trump!

yes

 

[BGIF]

After MSNBC broke down the votes by groups and issues showing Trumps dominance, Van Jones said, "This is terrible!"

Brian Williams added wryly, "Keep in mind that's a Democrat speaking."

 

[irishfan]

From CNN
Latino Voters
Trump 44%
Rubio 29%
Cruz 18%
Kasich 4%

Wow. He's going to shut a lot of people up if he can duplicate these Latino results in other states.


No incentive for Rubio/Cruz to drop out either after Nevada.....will Trump sweep on Super Tuesday? I think Texas is the only state where he isn't leading.

 

[BGIF]

Wow. He's going to shut a lot of people up if he can duplicate these Latino results in other states.


No incentive for Rubio/Cruz to drop out either after Nevada.....will Trump sweep on Super Tuesday? I think Texas is the only state where he isn't leading.

Keep in mind this was the Republican Primary/Caucues. One report noted that exit poles about 8% of the total vote was Latino at that time which represented about 800 votes. Nevada has over 800,000 registered Latinos.

Trump needs to build on that Latino start.

 

[BGIF]

Rubio takes the lead for silver.

Rubio takes the lead for silver.

After consistently trailing Cruz by 50-200 votes through the early returns (around 39%) Rubio shot ahead when about bunch of precincts (about 30% of total) were tallied. With 69% counted, Rubio's up on Cruz by about 750 votes.

 

[BGIF]

Super Tuesday

Super Tuesday

In Cruz's post election speech he pointed out Super Tuesday 3/1 16and how he leading in Texas.


MSNBC posted the most recent VoteTexas poll (Feb 19-21) for Texas

Texas
Cruz 37
Trump 29
Rubio 15
Kasich 5

One pundit noted that Texas has an early voting period which closes on Friday and that they expect it to reach 55% of the total. The upshot was the Bush dropping out and Trump dominating Nevada shouldn't have much effect on Texas voters since so many have already voted. However ... if Trump continues to get undecides ...

Cruz has 27,000 volunteers on the ground working for him in Texas.


MSNBC noted even IF Cruz takes the bulk of the 155 TX delegates where else does he score. They didn't see him winning AT THIS TIME per polls in any of the other 11 Super Tuesday States.

Further they noted that Rubio at best per polls might win Minnesota and perhaps 1 other (according to Rubio people it was noted). BUT Trump is leading in the other 9 Super Tuesday primary. Even with split delegates the numbers don't look good except for Trump.

On 3/15 Ohio has it's primary recent QUinnipiac poll show:
Trump 31
Kasich 26
Cruz 21
Rubio 13

Also on 3/15 Florida votes. CBSnews poll has:
Trump 41
Cruz 22
Rubio 18
Kasich 2

Note Favorite Sons Kasich and Rubio trail in home states.

SuperTuesday Stats and delegates
TX 155
GA 76
TN 58
AL 50
VA 49
OU 43
MA 42
AL 40
NM 38
AK 28
VT 16
Total 595

 

[BGIF]

Nevada Silver Medal

Nevada Silver Medal

With 95% tallied Rubio has a 1,750 vote lead.

If my math is correct there's about 4000 votes unreported. Cruz would have to get about 72% of the outstanding to pass Rubio.

On SuperTuesday in Landslide Lyndon's state that might happen but not tonight.

 

[connor_in]

Bernie's South Carolina surrender - POLITICO

 

[connor_in]

 

[connor_in]

 

[Cackalacky]

Bernie's South Carolina surrender - POLITICO

They are most definitely not skipping this state. They have been all over this state and have been very active on the ground. I have seen more Bernie people in public than anyone else. Hillary has been non-existent here. No tv adds, no paper ads or placards. I even got two Bernie flyers delivered to my door by canvassers. Never in 20 years living here have I gotten canvassed by a candidate that much before, even Republicans.

But this primary is not really important for Dems anyway as they will not garner any more than 30% of the general election vote and those will all be from Charleston and parts of two counties around Columbia. SC is a solid R state. Bernie is obviously moving on to states that he has a shot of winning in the primary and general election.

As far as a ground game here in SC over the last three months, Bernie has dominated everyone. It just does not look like it is going to pay dividends for him. There is not more he could do here IMO prior to the primary. He already has the endorsement of many minority leaders here but none of the Super Delegates AFAIK.

I just want to be clear because that article is fairly thin with the facts and the context.

 

[kmoose]

Here is where I could vote for Trump(not WOULD, but could):


If we could elect Trump on a trial basis. I'm sure he has probationary periods for lots of his new employees, so let's give him one. If he wins the election, then we the people get a second up/down vote at the 18 month mark. That way, if he proves to be a disaster, we can simply turn him out. But, if he shows that he can be diplomatic and get things done on the International stage, then we keep him.

I know this is a completely ridiculous scenario in the framework of our political system, but something along those lines would be needed, for me to feel comfortable voting for the guy.

 

[NDVirginia19]

*sharpens sword to commit seppuku for when Trump wins the nomination and I have to try to decide between him and Hillary*

 

[IrishLax]

So like at what point does the establishment put a hit out on Trump?

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Cape Breton if Donald Trump Wins

Trump's success on the path to becoming president is nothing short than a massive embarrassment for this country. It's an empty threat (married w/ kids), but I'd move if he actually wins the general election.

 

[Rack Em]

So like at what point does the establishment put a hit out on Trump?

Just get him to hang out with the Kennedys. Lots of people seem to die around them.

 

[BGIF]

So like at what point does the establishment put a hit out on Trump?

JEB got $130 million for the gig but didn't have the energy to pull the trigger.

 

[wizards8507]

JEB got $130 million for the gig but didn't have the energy to pull the trigger.

I feel like a real assassin would be way cheaper.

 

[Rack Em]

I feel like a real assassin would be way cheaper.

Like someone in the classified ads who does "wet work."

 

[woolybug25]

As Wiz pointed out previously, I really cannot understand why so many people believe that he would rule (yes, because that is what he would do) our country like anything but a tyrant.

What evidence over the course of his entire life and up to today, would suggest otherwise?

If you are a conservative that gets pissed every time President Obama uses executive order, then holy shat... wait until Trump is in office. He will undoubtedly do everything in his power to get his way. Just think if he gets the level of obstructionism that Obama has faced. It is going to be embarrassing for our country.

I would never vote for literally anyone running right now. Yet no one other than Trump actually scares me with what he will do in office.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

Perry Basketball Players Targeted By Degrading ‘Trump’ Chants | whotv.com

PERRY, Iowa -- Presidential candidate Donald Trump’s name is still being chanted long after the Iowa Caucuses, but some are using his name to degrade a diverse school’s basketball team.

Perry High School bucks the trend of what is typically found in a rural Iowa setting.

“We are really more of an urban school in a rural setting. Here at the high school, we are 48 percent minority,” said Perry High School Principal Dan Marburger.

They embrace that diversity and it shows on the basketball court with players of Latino, Native American and African American heritage.

“It's all about who you are as a person and that’s what is great about a small town like Perry,” said head basketball coach Ned Menke.

But that diversity isn't being celebrated by everyone.

At Monday night’s game against Dallas Center-Grimes, opposing fans used Trump’s disdain for illegal immigrants to target several players of Latino descent.

"We are all aware of racism, it's alive and well in small portions but it's alive and well and it's just hurtful to see that's what they resort to,” said Kevin Lopez, Perry Student Section Leader.

Chants like “Trump, Trump, Trump” and "USA" were said.

According to players, chants like, “Trump, Trump, Trump,” were said and they were trying to intimidate Perry players by reciting things Trump has said about what he plans to do with immigrants and their children if he is elected.

 

[connor_in]

As Wiz pointed out previously, I really cannot understand why so many people believe that he would rule (yes, because that is what he would do) our country like anything but a tyrant.

What evidence over the course of his entire life and up to today, would suggest otherwise?

If you are a conservative that gets pissed every time President Obama uses executive order, then holy shat... wait until Trump is in office. He will undoubtedly do everything in his power to get his way. Just think if he gets the level of obstructionism that Obama has faced. It is going to be embarrassing for our country.

I would never vote for literally anyone running right now. Yet no one other than Trump actually scares me with what he will do in office.

So if I am reading the first part of your post correctly, I can officially say that according to Wooly...


TRUMP RULES


(or would if elected president)

 

[BleedBlueGold]

 

[wizards8507]

As Wiz pointed out previously, I really cannot understand why so many people believe that he would rule (yes, because that is what he would do) our country like anything but a tyrant.

I don't think the Trump supporters are fooled. I think they actually want a tyrant. It's right out of the Rahm Emanuel & Sheev Palpatine Manual for Aspiring Dictators, Emperors, and Autocrats. "You never let a serious crisis go to waste," Rahm said, "And what I mean by that it's an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before." It's the Cloward-Piven strategy of overwhelming the system so the system collapses and the Emperor is empowered to rebuild it in his image. I've posted the meme a few times so I won't do it again, but what we're seeing is exactly what happened in the Star Wars prequel trilogy. A crisis (or crises) are manufactured by the state (illegal immigration, student loans, unemployment, the Separatist Rebellion) and then the people willingly and eagerly clamor for an even more powerful state to fix it.