2016 Presidential Horse Race

[Rizzophil]

If all the other candidates can beat Hillary except for Trump...how can they not bear trump. It doesn't add up with common sense.

 

[wizards8507]

If all the other candidates can beat Hillary except for Trump...how can they not bear trump. It doesn't add up with common sense.

The math isn't difficult. Rubio would beat Trump. Cruz would beat Trump. Kasich could probably even beat Trump. But they can't beat Trump when they're all in the race at the same time. Trump is winning, but he's not winning with a majority. He's winning with a small plurality.

 

[EddytoNow]

Every Republican candidate beats Hillary in the head-to-head polling except for Trump.

And the goal for the Republicans is NOT "anyone but a Democrat" anyways. That's how the party got squish Romney and squish McCain. That's how you get the candidate that doesn't enthuse the base like you're talking about.

Hillary is not an ideal candidate by any means, but her numbers are going to rise when faced with an actual opponent from the Republican Party. She has faced overwhelming scrutiny and character assassination. She has no secrets left to reveal, just innuendo from her opponents. None of her potential Republican opponents has faced the same level of scrutiny yet. When the Republicans have a single candidate, that candidate will receive the same level of media scrutiny that Hillary has faced. When that happens, Hillary's numbers will rise. The real key to the upcoming election is an enthusiastic Democratic base that turns out in large numbers. She was loyal to Obama, and I suspect he will do his best to energize the base if asked. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren will also come out and support Hillary if she wins the nomination. The key is to avoid having a portion of the Democratic Party sulking off into the corner if they don't get the candidate of their choice. With all that said, I will be voting for Bernie Sanders in the Michigan primary. However, if Hillary wins the nomination, I will look at her Republican opponent and run to the polls next November to vote for Hillary.

The Republican Party faces a more difficult task in holding their party together. Trump will do what is best for Trump. Cruz is not liked by many in his own party. And Rubio and Kasich have swung so far right they will have difficulty attracting independent and moderate voters in a general election.

Turnout will decide this election.

 

[wizards8507]

Hillary is not an ideal candidate by any means, but her numbers are going to rise when faced with an actual opponent from the Republican Party. She has faced overwhelming scrutiny and character assassination. She has no secrets left to reveal, just innuendo from her opponents. None of her potential Republican opponents has faced the same level of scrutiny yet. When the Republicans have a single candidate, that candidate will receive the same level of media scrutiny that Hillary has faced. When that happens, Hillary's numbers will rise. The real key to the upcoming election is an enthusiastic Democratic base that turns out in large numbers. She was loyal to Obama, and I suspect he will do his best to energize the base if asked. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren will also come out and support Hillary if she wins the nomination. The key is to avoid having a portion of the Democratic Party sulking off into the corner if they don't get the candidate of their choice. With all that said, I will be voting for Bernie Sanders in the Michigan primary. However, if Hillary wins the nomination, I will look at her Republican opponent and run to the polls next November to vote for Hillary.

The Republican Party faces a more difficult task in holding their party together. Trump will do what is best for Trump. Cruz is not liked by many in his own party. And Rubio and Kasich have swung so far right they will have difficulty attracting independent and moderate voters in a general election.

Turnout will decide this election.

KASICH has swung far right? You're letting your politics cloud your analysis.

 

[pkt77242]

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Nevada Republican Presidential Caucus

Trump with a nice lead and not much separation between Cruz and Rubio.

ETA: Though Caucuses are harder to accurately forecast than standard primaries.

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

does anyone have the actual dates for upcoming primaries (both parties)?

Look at the OP. I try to keep it updated within reason.

 

[connor_in]

in his mind, if it goes a brokered convention and:
if Trump won the most states, loses a brokered convention, and doesn't get the nomination-he will go apeshit! feel they screwed him damn near guaranteeing he runs as an independent. on spite alone.

also I don't think the GOP "base" (whatever that means anymore) gets jazzed up to go vote/passinatley support a Rubio.
best case for GOP a Rubio picks off Latin votes from the Dem (which could offset dispassionate GOP base so could be a wash) Rubio needs to actually WIN a state, no?

Are you trying to say there will be a special place in HELL for Latinos that don't help Latinos?

Look at the OP. I try to keep it updated within reason.

Well at least there is one thing within reason in this thread!

 

[GoIrish41]

Hillary is not an ideal candidate by any means, but her numbers are going to rise when faced with an actual opponent from the Republican Party. She has faced overwhelming scrutiny and character assassination. She has no secrets left to reveal, just innuendo from her opponents. None of her potential Republican opponents has faced the same level of scrutiny yet. When the Republicans have a single candidate, that candidate will receive the same level of media scrutiny that Hillary has faced. When that happens, Hillary's numbers will rise. The real key to the upcoming election is an enthusiastic Democratic base that turns out in large numbers. She was loyal to Obama, and I suspect he will do his best to energize the base if asked. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren will also come out and support Hillary if she wins the nomination. The key is to avoid having a portion of the Democratic Party sulking off into the corner if they don't get the candidate of their choice. With all that said, I will be voting for Bernie Sanders in the Michigan primary. However, if Hillary wins the nomination, I will look at her Republican opponent and run to the polls next November to vote for Hillary.

The Republican Party faces a more difficult task in holding their party together. Trump will do what is best for Trump. Cruz is not liked by many in his own party. And Rubio and Kasich have swung so far right they will have difficulty attracting independent and moderate voters in a general election.

Turnout will decide this election.

I think this is mostly right, although I don't think Kasich has pushed ridiculously right at this point (He did, however, just cave to right wing pressure and defund Planned Parenthood this week, which will hurt him in the general even if he happens to pull off the biggest surprise in GOP politics in my lifetime by winning the nomination). A Trump candidacy (or Cruz, for that matter) will drive Democrats to the polls in droves. I know a lot of people don't like Hillary, but a Trump or Cruz presidency is simply unthinkable to virtually all Democrats, most Independents, and a whole lot of Republicans. A best case scenario is a lot of Republicans sitting out, and Independents looking toward the Democrats). You could even have some Republicans changing teams to protect their own party from themselves ( Don't take my word for it, just look to the most amazing post I've seen on IE in a long time (#5845).) I don't suspect there needs to be unprecedented massive turnout for the Dems to win, but that kind of turnout would likely make this contest relatively one sided in favor of Hillary. (Or Bernie, because I have not abandoned hope that he can knock off the Clinton machine).

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

My opinion on the Republican race from living in Nevada is this: this should be Rubio's state. He lived in Las Vegas for a while; he is young and Hispanic; he came into the spotlight as a Teaparty candidate = sudo Libritarian/anti-establishment beliefs that match a good chunk of rural Nevadans; he is endorsed by a popular Governor; he is endorsed by the largest newspaper which is important because it is owned by Adelson - who is somewhat silently backing him; and he has the whisper endorsement of Romney, who has large influence over the Mormon voters (about 25% of Republican caucus goers.

If Rubio can't win here, he is the one who should drop out; and let Kasich - who is more electable in the general (imo) be the establishment candidate. Not vice versa (again imo). A similar argument could be made about S. Carolina which was pretty well set up for a big Rubio showing.

That said, I expect a big double digit Trump win, with Cruz falling off. Bush had like 1% support, so him being out is insignificant.

 

[wizards8507]

I think this is mostly right, although I don't think Kasich has pushed ridiculously right at this point (He did, however, just cave to right wing pressure and defund Planned Parenthood this week). A Trump candidacy (or Cruz, for that matter) will drive Democrats to the polls in droves. I know a lot of people don't like Hillary, but a Trump or Cruz presidency is simply unthinkable to virtually all Democrats, most Independents, and a whole lot of Republicans. A best case scenario is a lot of Republicans sitting out, and Independents looking toward the Democrats). You could even have some Republicans changing teams to protect their own party from themselves ( Don't take my word for it, just look to the most amazing post I've seen on IE in a long time (#5845).) I don't suspect there needs to be unprecedented massive turnout for the Dems to win, but that kind of turnout would likely make this contest relatively one sided in favor of Hillary. (Or Bernie, because I have not abandoned hope that he can knock off the Clinton machine).

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Cruz vs. Clinton

Ted Cruz would also skewer her on the debate stage.

 

[wizards8507]

My opinion on the Republican race from living in Nevada is this: this should be Rubio's state. He lived in Las Vegas for a while; he is young and Hispanic; he came into the spotlight as a Teaparty candidate = sudo Libritarian/anti-establishment beliefs that match a good chunk of rural Nevadans; he is endorsed by a popular Governor; he is endorsed by the largest newspaper which is important because it is owned by Adelson - who is somewhat silently backing him; and he has the whisper endorsement of Romney, who has large influence over the Mormon voters (about 25% of Republican caucus goers.

That's probably how it should go, but Rubio has been painted very clearly by the media as the establishment choice. He's getting bashed by Glenn Beck and Mark Levin among other conservative media outlets.

 

[connor_in]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Clinton on <a href="https://twitter.com/CNN">@CNN</a> this morning: "I'm not only against bad things...I want to start good things"</p>— Liz Kreutz (@ABCLiz) <a href="https://twitter.com/ABCLiz/status/701430964640022528">February 21, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Hillary Clinton - Bold, Innovative Policies for America

 

[GoIrish41]

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Cruz vs. Clinton

Ted Cruz would also skewer her on the debate stage.

Polls about who might win against whom if something comes to pass some time in the future are as useless as tits on a boar. Think of all the things that would have to happen for Ted Cruz to be the nominee. Trump would have to fade (that doesn't look like it is going to happen). Rubio would have to have another insanely bad public performance pushing voters away from him. Kasich and Carson would have to drop out and somehow all of their support would head toward the Cruz camp.

AND, Cruz would have to all of the sudden become a likeable, trustworthy candidate. He has the same drawbacks as Hillary, so at that point -- when its not some fairytale fantasy look into the future of voters minds, when there are two real candidates with nominations, it will bee about message. Who has the more palatable message to a nation of voters who have become more and more liberal (see the astounding rise of Bernie Sanders from a nobody to a contender in the Democratic primary)? Cruz just said this week that he'd deport all illegal immigrants, again. Cruz: I would send agents to 'look for people' in U.S. illegally | MSNBC That kind of stuff isn't going to help him with an electorate that the GOP acknowledged in 2012 was needed for them to win the White House. I suspect Hillary's message would resonate far better than Cruz's hard-line right wing nonsense -- carpet bombing, mass deportation, tax breaks for the rich, etc. In short, I believe more people dislike Cruz and with more intensity, than people dislike Hillary. I suspect you'll argue against that point, and we'll just have to find out if a Cruz candidacy ever comes to pass by some miracle of electoral politics.

Also, Hillary is no slouch when it comes to debates. Like her or not, she is very smart and has a high command of all the issues. Cruz has mostly come off as an insincere douche in the GOP debates, yearning to say something profound but never quite being able to pull it off.

 

[EddytoNow]

KASICH has swung far right? You're letting your politics cloud your analysis.

Kasich is not the moderate he likes to portray himself as. He has moderated his public positions slightly in an effort to garner what's left of the moderate Republican vote, but he has a very conservative track record that will come to light in a general election. He is unlikely to swing any voters to the Republican side. He is walking a dangerously thin line between appealing to Republicans while not looking too right-wing for a general election. Either way he moves, he loses votes. He is much like Romney in trying to project a moderate image. Romney found out that the right wing wasn't too enthusiastic about his drift to the middle. He also discovered that independents and moderate Democrats were not easily swayed to believe he was a moderate. Kasich, a 30-year politician, will also not have much appeal to Trump supporters, who are likely to stay home on election day rather than vote for a member of the political establishment.

 

[kmoose]

Kasich is not the moderate he likes to portray himself as. He has moderated his public positions slightly in an effort to garner what's left of the moderate Republican vote, but he has a very conservative track record that will come to light in a general election.

So lay it out for us, here and now?

 

[ND NYC]

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Cruz vs. Clinton

Ted Cruz would also skewer her on the debate stage.

sure...he would "win the debates"....and then lose easily to her in the general election as his "hateability" would have hit an all time high after them, and drive women to the polls in numbers not seen since the suffragettes.

the dude is just SO unlikeable.

...and he might be Canadian

 

[wizards8507]

Kasich is not the moderate he likes to portray himself as. He has moderated his public positions slightly in an effort to garner what's left of the moderate Republican vote, but he has a very conservative track record that will come to light in a general election. He is unlikely to swing any voters to the Republican side. He is walking a dangerously thin line between appealing to Republicans while not looking too right-wing for a general election. Either way he moves, he loses votes. He is much like Romney in trying to project a moderate image. Romney found out that the right wing wasn't too enthusiastic about his drift to the middle. He also discovered that independents and moderate Democrats were not easily swayed to believe he was a moderate. Kasich, a 30-year politician, will also not have much appeal to Trump supporters, who are likely to stay home on election day rather than vote for a member of the political establishment.

John Kasich: Liberals' Favorite Christian Theocrat

sure...he would "win the debates"....and then lose easily to her in the general election as his "hateability" would have hit an all time high after them, and drive women to the polls in numbers not seen since the suffragettes.

the dude is just SO unlikeable.

...and he might be Canadian

According to the Real Clear Politics average, Ted Cruz has a net -5 favorability rating. Clinton is at -9.

For reference, Rubio is -3, Trump is -22 (!), Kasich is -7, and Bernie is 0.

In other words, lots of people hate all of these candidates and they REALLY hate Trump.

 

[ND NYC]

how can Kasich (of all people) be more hated than both Cruz and Rubio? are they polling vampires?

 

[ND NYC]

the Machiavellian play IMO is for Rubio to get out of this 2016 race gracefully at some point, enabling Cruz to get the nomination over trump, which then ensures a Clinton victory in 2016, and a Rubio run with a somewhat united GOP backing him in 2020 vs a battle weary and tired Clinton and a nation looking to "give the other side a chance" with some new young blood.

he's still young. should play the long game.

did he give up his seat in florida to run this year?

 

[pkt77242]

the Machiavellian play IMO is for Rubio to get out of this 2016 race gracefully at some point, enabling Cruz to get the nomination over trump, which then ensures a Clinton victory in 2016, and a Rubio run with a somewhat united GOP backing him in 2020.

he's still young. should play the long game.

did he give up his seat in florida to run?

I believe that he did.

 

[drayer54]

Is that right though? We've been waiting for a ceiling, but he keeps defying the ceiling.

When? He's been polling in the 30's. Finished in the 30's. Never seen him >30's. The ceiling is alive and well.

 

[RDU Irish]

I think it is much more dynamic than that - I don't like Trump or Clinton but I would vote for Trump because I think Clinton is that evil. Many others who hate both would stay home. How many people who hate both are going to pull that lever for H-dog?

I think most stay home because at the end of the day Americans are apathetic. Hillary in the election is not driving a positive turnout for Dems - while Trump may pick up a few lesser of two evils votes - I think he gets benefits from abstainers and R base will be more likely to hold their nose than Dems.

Trump would also have a more rabid base the Hillary. That counts for something too.

You don't have to win the majority of Americans - just the plurality of those that show up to vote.

I also know a number of life long Dems that are intrigued by Trump and turned off by socialist Sanders. So don't underestimate his cross over ability.

 

[EddytoNow]

the Machiavellian play IMO is for Rubio to get out of this 2016 race gracefully at some point, enabling Cruz to get the nomination over trump, which then ensures a Clinton victory in 2016, and a Rubio run with a somewhat united GOP backing him in 2020 vs a battle weary and tired Clinton and a nation looking to "give the other side a chance" with some new young blood.

he's still young. should play the long game.

did he give up his seat in florida to run this year?

Clinton is likely to pick a young and upcoming Democrat as a running mate. Perhaps Booker. If she wins the nomination she will need to make some concessions to all the young voters supporting Sanders and to black voters to keep the Obama coalition together. She will need a running mate that is fresh and energetic, Booker is just one of the possibilities. And with her age, she is likely to be a one-term candidate with her running mate her likely successor.

I don't think Rubio gave up his seat. Bush was criticizing Rubio constantly for not being present when the Senate voted.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

Clinton is likely to pick a young and upcoming Democrat as a running mate. Perhaps Booker. If she wins the nomination she will need to make some concessions to all the young voters supporting Sanders and to black voters to keep the Obama coalition together. She will need a running mate that is fresh and energetic, Booker is just one of the possibilities. And with her age, she is likely to be a one-term candidate with her running mate her likely successor.

I don't think Rubio gave up his seat. Bush was criticizing Rubio constantly for not being present when the Senate voted.

Rubio isn't running again, but he's still in the Senate.

Word is he hates being in the Senate. I've read that in a couple of places.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

When? He's been polling in the 30's. Finished in the 30's. Never seen him >30's. The ceiling is alive and well.

Everyone thought his ceiling was in the 20s until it wasn't. Maybe he's there now. We'll see.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - 2016 Republican Presidential Nomination

 

[pkt77242]

The real problem that Republicans have right now is that Cruz and Rubio are too close to each other in the polls and so neither is likely to drop out for a while and by then it will probably be too late.

 

[mgriff]

Everyone thought his ceiling was in the 20s until it wasn't. Maybe he's there now. We'll see.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - 2016 Republican Presidential Nomination

It started at 10, then 15, 20, 25, 30. Surely now he's hit his ceiling! Everyone is so quick to dismiss him but he's resonating with American people, across party lines. I think he becomes the nominee and ends up taking Clinton in the general, handily. Just my opinion.

 

[NDohio]

how can Kasich (of all people) be more hated than both Cruz and Rubio? are they polling vampires?

Kasich really hit a nerve with anyone in a union in the state of Ohio in 2011. Even though the state is doing well financially, there are a lot of people in OH(especially teachers, fireman, and police officers) that absolutely hate him.

This article is about how he was looked upon after the union debacle.

Ohio voters overwhelmingly reject Issue 2, dealing a blow to Gov. John Kasich | cleveland.com

This article talks about how many Ohio residents don't like him even though he won his last election by a landslide.

The Unbearable Smugness of John Kasich - Hit & Run : Reason.com

 

[GoIrish41]

It started at 10, then 15, 20, 25, 30. Surely now he's hit his ceiling! Everyone is so quick to dismiss him but he's resonating with American people, across party lines. I think he becomes the nominee and ends up taking Clinton in the general, handily. Just my opinion.

I don't think this is true to any large degree. There might be a moderate Dem here or there who is giving Trump a look, but virtually every Democrat I know would rather stick a fork in their eye than vote for Donald Trump. Most independents are leaning toward the Dems, as well, or at least not admitting that they secretly support Trump (I'd be embarrassed, too).

If he hasn't reached his ceiling, what does that say about what the Republican Party has become? I've been arguing with posters on this site for years about how the party has become less inclusive, more mean spirited, bigoted, etc. -- and taking more than a little flack for making those arguments. When Trump hits the 50% GOP support mark, there is no defense for those arguments anymore. That party is in a sad, sad state of affairs if they cannot muster a candidate who can beat Donald Trump.

 

[Rizzophil]

I don't think this is true to any large degree. There might be a moderate Dem here or there who is giving Trump a look, but virtually every Democrat I know would rather stick a fork in their eye than vote for Donald Trump. Most independents are leaning toward the Dems, as well, or at least not admitting that they secretly support Trump (I'd be embarrassed, too).

If he hasn't reached his ceiling, what does that say about what the Republican Party has become? I've been arguing with posters on this site for years about how the party has become less inclusive, more mean spirited, bigoted, etc. -- and taking more than a little flack for making those arguments. When Trump hits the 50% GOP support mark, there is no defense for those arguments anymore. That party is in a sad, sad state of affairs if they cannot muster a candidate who can beat Donald Trump.

For the record I'm not a GOP. But the reason why Independents are polling towards trump is because Obama has openly lied to the American public. The list of lies goes on and on - Iran Deal, Obamacare, Gitmo, etc etc etc.

The theory that Hillary is going to run away with the election neglects how much anger Americans have right now.

The vote is against Obama as much as anything. Having a candidate like Hillary that wants to continue making progress doesn't understand the voting class.