2016 Presidential Horse Race

2016 Presidential Horse Race


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Emcee77

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This touches on a brief argument that wizards and I had yesterday, but I think you're projecting your own libertarian instincts onto some huge groups of people who clearly don't share them. I'm seeing lots of Republicans getting excited along the lines of: "F*ck yeah, it's 1980 again! Morning in America! Trump is Reagan 2.0. Time to shrink government and cut taxes again!"

That's the same neoliberal bullshit the GOP has been peddling for 30+ years, and it's what Trump voters decisively voted against in this year's primary. As I've said several times, downscale white Obama voters from the Rust Belt just put Trump in the White House. He wasn't supposed to win Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania; but those voters have been struggling for a long time, and they're tired of being ignored by the GOP and the DNC alike. They (and the elderly, since you brought them up) really like their government benefits; for many of these people, such benefits have been the only thing keeping them afloat for many years. No, they don't like tax increases (very few do, in fact); but they like cuts to government safety nets even less.

Trump campaigned in the Rust Belt and promised to actually increase the size of government, and (more importantly) to make it work for them. Bernie was promising the same thing. To project your own skepticism of government competency onto these voters would be a fatal misreading of this election. And I'm concerned that many in the GOP will do exactly that.



I vet my sources very carefully, and there were no credible analysts projecting a Trump victory. The only ones confidently predicting he would win were shills like Hannity, Limbaugh, Coulter and Ingraham.

Yes, nailed it, as usual.

The "Hillary is unfit for the presidency" narrative prevailed over the "Trump is unfit for the presidency" narrative among a lot of people who voted for Obama in 2012 and 2008, especially white lesser-income, lesser-educated voters (but also many black and Latino voters). People the Dems were counting on just didn't turn out for Hillary. I think that was the main thing, and I don't see a clear policy mandate that comes with that victory for Trump.
 

IrishSteelhead

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Work with a few people that were physically CRYING Wednesday morning at work. It was one of the more awkward moments I've ever had.

I went home thinking it was extremely weird, but now I see there's videos of other people crying too.

Is this really a thing? People crying at the result on an election? Serious question.
 

Whiskeyjack

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Absolutely wrong. You need to look at raw vote totals, not percentages or the electoral college. The Trump wave is 100% a myth.

So I guess Bernie's unprecedented campaign was just coincidence? As well as the abject failure of garden variety Republican neoliberals promising more of the same (Jeb, Rubio, etc.)? Over the last three elections, the outsider/ anti-establishment candidate won. First, Obama upset Clinton for the nomination in 2008, and then went on to soundly defeat McCain. And then he comfortably beat Romney, a caricature of Wall Street globalist vulture capitalism, in 2012 despite his weakness as an incumbent. And this year, the party affiliations flipped, but the trend still held. Clinton, the corrupt establishmentarian, got crushed by the populist outsider.

Mitt Romney got more votes in 2012 than Trump got in 2016, meaning the #NeverTrump Reagan conservatives that abandoned the party are a bigger coalition than these "downscale white voters" in the Midwest that you keep talking about.

Got a cite for that? And aren't you fond of pointing out that we live in a Republic, not a direct democracy, making the broad distribution of voters far more important than their number? From my vantage, #NeverTrump was basically limited to the conservative intelligentsia, and it clearly had very little impact on the outcome of this election. Which neatly illustrates how much electoral power your preferred brand of politics commands these days.

Every single way in which Trump's electoral map looks impressive is utterly the product of Hillary Clinton being the worst presidential candidate of all time. I said it yesterday but it bears repeating: Trump lost despite Trumpism, not because of it.

I assume you mean "Trump won despite Trumpism, not because of it." Which gets it exactly backwards. Trumpism won despite Trump's personal shortcomings. Look at the populism sweeping Europe. The future belongs to politicians like Trump and Bernie.
 
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NorthDakota

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Work with a few people that were physically CRYING Wednesday morning at work. It was one of the more awkward moments I've ever had.

I went home thinking it was extremely weird, but now I see there's videos of other people crying too.

Is this really a thing? People crying at the result on an election? Serious question.

Yes it's real.
 

ulukinatme

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Work with a few people that were physically CRYING Wednesday morning at work. It was one of the more awkward moments I've ever had.

I went home thinking it was extremely weird, but now I see there's videos of other people crying too.

Is this really a thing? People crying at the result on an election? Serious question.

I'm curious what the ages are of these people that were crying? Is it the younger crowd?
 

ulukinatme

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Cc_QEsve.png
 

IrishSteelhead

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I'm curious what the ages are of these people that were crying? Is it the younger crowd?



Most of the videos I've seen were younger, college aged people, but the co-workers were middle aged, and one was a man.

I get a lot of people were upset with the result, but crying was strange to see.
 

greyhammer90

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Work with a few people that were physically CRYING Wednesday morning at work. It was one of the more awkward moments I've ever had.

I went home thinking it was extremely weird, but now I see there's videos of other people crying too.

Is this really a thing? People crying at the result on an election? Serious question.

I think its a reaction to the media painting the other candidate as evil. When Obama was elected, a TON of people I knew and grew up with, generally smart people, genuinely were afraid. My girlfriends roommate cried. They were convinced that he was a Muslim who was going to make the country socialist. This is because they watched Fox News at the height of the O'Reilly Factor and Glen Beck.

Fast forward to today, the same thing is happening with Trump because he's been painted as literally Hitler. So you have the liberals, who have been listening to fear mongering for the last six months and they are terrified.

I also think that this fearful mindset is slightly more extreme in this case because when Obama was elected the Republicans had time to come to terms with it before it actually happened. The opposite is true with Trump. Liberals had no freaking clue he was going to win. As a result, large swaths of this group now thinks a genuinely evil person has been elected, and they weren't prepared for it. So now you get more emotions.
 

ACamp1900

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Most of the videos I've seen were younger, college aged people, but the co-workers were middle aged, and one was a man.

I get a lot of people were upset with the result, but crying was strange to see.

No. He wasn't.


;)
 

IrishBroker

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This touches on a brief argument that wizards and I had yesterday, but I think you're projecting your own libertarian instincts onto some huge groups of people who clearly don't share them. I'm seeing lots of Republicans getting excited along the lines of: "F*ck yeah, it's 1980 again! Morning in America! Trump is Reagan 2.0. Time to shrink government and cut taxes again!"

That's the same neoliberal bullshit the GOP has been peddling for 30+ years, and it's what Trump voters decisively voted against in this year's primary. As I've said several times, downscale white Obama voters from the Rust Belt just put Trump in the White House. He wasn't supposed to win Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania; but those voters have been struggling for a long time, and they're tired of being ignored by the GOP and the DNC alike. They (and the elderly, since you brought them up) really like their government benefits; for many of these people, such benefits have been the only thing keeping them afloat for many years. No, they don't like tax increases (very few do, in fact); but they like cuts to government safety nets even less.

Trump campaigned in the Rust Belt and promised to actually increase the size of government, and (more importantly) to make it work for them. Bernie was promising the same thing. To project your own skepticism of government competency onto these voters would be a fatal misreading of this election. And I'm concerned that many in the GOP will do exactly that.



I vet my sources very carefully, and there were no credible analysts projecting a Trump victory. The only ones confidently predicting he would win were shills like Hannity, Limbaugh, Coulter and Ingraham.

Yes, nailed it, as usual.

The "Hillary is unfit for the presidency" narrative prevailed over the "Trump is unfit for the presidency" narrative among a lot of people who voted for Obama in 2012 and 2008, especially white lesser-income, lesser-educated voters (but also many black and Latino voters). People the Dems were counting on just didn't turn out for Hillary. I think that was the main thing, and I don't see a clear policy mandate that comes with that victory for Trump.

So you two are saying that the ACA had no impact? I totally disagree.

And yes, I understand that Trump is NOT a small government person, that wasn't my claim...but you're missing my point about the ACA. Trump is about repealing it. That's what resonates. The people only see dollars and cents. They see their health care rising and the insurance companies that are backing out. They lost their doctors when government told them they wouldn't. What makes you think that Bernie could sell them on even more government in that specific sector? I think you are way off on that one.


I agree Emcee about "Hillary is unfit"...but it goes deeper than that. To many, you can accept this or not, she is the face of the Washington cronyism that so many people are tired of. So tired they are willing to vote Trump. And like I said before...you're middle/poor class whites are feeling left behind (Hillary didn't visit WI ONCE) and screwed over(Rust belt) by government...pair that with a sprinkle of racism and too much politically correctness, and looking back, there was no way HIllary was going to win this.
 

IrishBroker

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Work with a few people that were physically CRYING Wednesday morning at work. It was one of the more awkward moments I've ever had.

I went home thinking it was extremely weird, but now I see there's videos of other people crying too.

Is this really a thing? People crying at the result on an election? Serious question.

That's pathetic.

They should be fired on the spot.
 

Emcee77

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Absolutely wrong. You need to look at raw vote totals, not percentages or the electoral college. The Trump wave is 100% a myth. Mitt Romney got more votes in 2012 than Trump got in 2016, meaning the #NeverTrump Reagan conservatives that abandoned the party are a bigger coalition than these "downscale white voters" in the Midwest that you keep talking about. Every single way in which Trump's electoral map looks impressive is utterly the product of Hillary Clinton being the worst presidential candidate of all time. I said it yesterday but it bears repeating: Trump won despite Trumpism, not because of it.

I'm not following. The total number of votes cast in the 2016 presidential general election, for the candidates of both parties, was down from 2012, was it not?

I'm seeing numbers like this:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Turns out it's not a Trump insurgency, but a Clinton collapse. A graph that cuts straight through today's punditry ... <a href="https://t.co/x41cyyy2XI">pic.twitter.com/x41cyyy2XI</a></p>— Jonathan Webber (@jonathanwebber) <a href="https://twitter.com/jonathanwebber/status/796448989931417600">November 9, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Another good bar chart:

https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeau...ade_a_chart_showing_the_popular_vote_turnout/

Doesn't it seem that Hillary just didn't turn out Democratic voters like Obama did? Or that Trump flipped them? Or a combination of both?

There are all sorts of different arguments we can make about what happened, but I definitely think Whiskey was on the right track in his post #22173 above.
 
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wizards8507

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So I guess Bernie's unprecedented campaign was just coincidence?
Bernie, like Trump, found success due to a cult of personality ad a vocal minority of very fervent supporters. He was also running against the single worst candidate in the modern history of presidential politics and he still got trounced.

As well as the abject failure of garden variety Republican neoliberals promising more of the same (Jeb, Rubio, etc.)? Over the last three elections, the outsider/ anti-establishment candidate won. First, Obama upset Clinton for the nomination in 2008, and then went on to soundly defeat McCain. And then he comfortably beat Romney, a caricature of Wall Street globalist vulture capitalism, in 2012 despite his weakness as an incumbent. And this year, the party affiliations flipped, but the trend still held. Clinton, the corrupt establishmentarian, got crushed by the populist outsider.
Marco Rubio would have run away with the nomination in February if Chris Christie hadn't boned him in the New Hampshire debate. Any one of the other candidates, including Jeb, would have beaten Trump. I don't need to explain to you the mathematical advantage of a small plurality of supporters in a crowded field. I'm not crying "no fair," it is what it is. I just think we're going overboard with our retrospective analysis of how popular Trump was in either the primary or the general.

Got a cite for that? And aren't you fond of pointing out that we live in a Republic, not a direct democracy, making the broad distribution of voters far more important than their number?
Trump Won Fewer Votes Than Romney Did | Daily Wire

From my vantage, #NeverTrump was basically limited to the conservative intelligentsia, and it clearly had very little impact on the outcome of this election. Which neatly illustrates how much electoral power your preferred brand of politics commands these days.
Look at some of the congressional races where victorious Republicans got more votes than Donald Trump. A reverse-dropoff from the bottom of the ticket to the top is absolutely unheard of. Look at Paul Ryan's performance in Wisconsin's first district compared to Trump. Tim Scott in SC.

I assume you mean "Trump won despite Trumpism, not because of it." Which gets it exactly backwards. Trumpism won despite Trump himself. Look at the populism sweeping Europe. The future belongs to politicians like Trump and Bernie.
Holy conflation, batman. The populism is in Europe is a revolt against exactly the kind of policies Bernie Sanders advocates for America. They're not the same in the slightest. The "Remain" supporters in the UK are quintessential Bernie people.
 

Whiskeyjack

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I think its a reaction to the media painting the other candidate as evil. When Obama was elected, a TON of people I knew and grew up with, generally smart people, genuinely were afraid. My girlfriends roommate cried. They were convinced that he was a Muslim who was going to make the country socialist. This is because they watched Fox News at the height of the O'Reilly Factor and Glen Beck.

Fast forward to today, the same thing is happening with Trump because he's been painted as literally Hitler. So you have the liberals, who have been listening to fear mongering for the last six months and they are terrified.

I also think that this fearful mindset is slightly more extreme in this case because when Obama was elected the Republicans had time to come to terms with it before it actually happened. The opposite is true with Trump. Liberals had no freaking clue he was going to win. As a result, this group now thinks a genuinely evil person has been elected.

And since Trump seems not to have much of an ideological agenda or much interest in governing, the most likely outcome is that he comes into office surrounded by veterans from the GOP bench, they end up doing most of the actual governing, and we end up with a replay of the last Bush administration. Given Trump's idiosyncrasies, there's a chance that he'll do something crazy, but the safest course would be for him to focus on personal "brand management" and leave the drudgery to the countless Deep State administrators that most of us never hear/ think about.

So while the question of "What will Trump do" is indeed pressing, I think the question of "Has the GOP learned a f*cking thing in the last 16 years" is even moreso. I'm worried they haven't.
 

ulukinatme

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Most of the videos I've seen were younger, college aged people, but the co-workers were middle aged, and one was a man.

I get a lot of people were upset with the result, but crying was strange to see.

Damn, country is softer than I thought. That, or maybe the 24 hour news cycle and the excessive mud slinging on both sides has drawn people in too far. They're becoming way too emotionally invested.
 

wizards8507

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Doesn't it seem that Hillary just didn't turn out Democratic voters like Obama did?
That's exactly my point. Whiskey is trying to tell me that Trump grew the GOP with these new lower class white voters in the midwest and that this is the new Republican path to victory. I'm saying Trump didn't grow shit. To the extent that he added those folks, he drove at least that many traditional Republican voters away. The only reason he won is because Clinton was shit, exactly as you said. If Mitt Romney represents "generic boring Republican," then Trump adding to the GOP electorate would mean a bigger red bar in 2016 than 2012, i.e. Romney's coalition PLUS lower class white voters in the Midwest.

(Obama - White Working Cass) = Clinton < (Trump + White Working Class - #NeverTrump) < Romney < Obama
 

wizards8507

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And since Trump seems not to have much of an ideological agenda or much interest in governing, the most likely outcome is that he comes into office surrounded by veterans from the GOP bench, they end up doing most of the actual governing, and we end up with a replay of the last Bush administration. Given Trump's idiosyncrasies, there's a chance that he'll do something crazy, but the safest course would be for him to focus on personal "brand management" and leave the drudgery to the countless Deep State administrators that most of us never hear/ think about.

So while the question of "What will Trump do" is indeed pressing, I think the question of "Has the GOP learned a f*cking thing in the last 16 years" is even moreso. I'm worried they haven't.
I agree with this at least. Step one needs to be to oust Mitch McConnell on his ancient butt.
 
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Cackalacky

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So I guess Bernie's unprecedented campaign was just coincidence? As well as the abject failure of garden variety Republican neoliberals promising more of the same (Jeb, Rubio, etc.)? Over the last three elections, the outsider/ anti-establishment candidate won. First, Obama upset Clinton for the nomination in 2008, and then went on to soundly defeat McCain. And then he comfortably beat Romney, a caricature of Wall Street globalist vulture capitalism, in 2012 despite his weakness as an incumbent. And this year, the party affiliations flipped, but the trend still held. Clinton, the corrupt establishmentarian, got crushed by the populist outsider.



Got a cite for that? And aren't you fond of pointing out that we live in a Republic, not a direct democracy, making the broad distribution of voters far more important than their number? From my vantage, #NeverTrump was basically limited to the conservative intelligentsia, and it clearly had very little impact on the outcome of this election. Which neatly illustrates how much electoral power your preferred brand of politics commands these days.



I assume you mean "Trump won despite Trumpism, not because of it." Which gets it exactly backwards. Trumpism won despite Trump's personal shortcomings. Look at the populism sweeping Europe. The future belongs to politicians like Trump and Bernie.

Don't you get tired of being absolutely wrong all the time? Just asking for a friend....
 

Emcee77

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That's exactly my point. Whiskey is trying to tell me that Trump grew the GOP with these new lower class white voters in the midwest and that this is the new Republican path to victory. I'm saying Trump didn't grow shit. To the extent that he added those folks, he drove at least that many traditional Republican voters away. The only reason he won is because Clinton was shit, exactly as you said. If Mitt Romney represents "generic boring Republican," then Trump adding to the GOP electorate would mean a bigger red bar in 2016 than 2012, i.e. Romney's coalition PLUS lower class white voters in the Midwest.

(Obama - White Working Cass) = Clinton < (Trump + White Working Class - #NeverTrump) < Romney < Obama

Oh I see.

I think Whiskey is 100% correct that Trump flipped a lot of white Obama voters from blue to red. Whether they stay Republican depends on who wants to own populism in future elections. Populism was traditionally in the Democratic sphere, but with fewer people in labor unions, which were tied to the Democratic party, and the Democratic embrace of multiculturalism and rejection of immigration constraints, it's shifting to the Republican sphere.

So my read on the turnout, based on what I've seen and read, is that Trump drove away a lot of educated, centrist Republicans, as you say (I can tell you just anecdotally that based on a straw poll of a dozen of my ND dorm friends, all diehard Republican voters, only one voted for Trump; the others abstained) BUT he gained a ton of populist types who voted for Obama in 2012 ... people Clinton was counting on. Those incoming/outgoing voters almost canceled each other out, resulting in a relatively modest net loss for Republicans ... but it resulted in a much more damaging loss to the Dems, because for them there was no corresponding influx. Further hurting Clinton is that she didn't turn out black and Latino voters like she expected.

But I don't think it's conclusive. I've been listening to this podcast throughout the campaign:

The Run-Up - The New York Times

And Nate Cohn, the NYT Upshot polling guy, said today that he thinks that when it's all done and dusted, it might turn out that what made the difference is just that many #NeverTrump Republicans "came home" in the end. Trump did a lot better in a lot of key suburban counties than a lot of people expected. But it's undeniable that Trump overperformed all estimates of how he would do with working-class white voters in those Rust Belt states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. I don't think we know enough to be 100% sure how it all went down yet.
 
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IrishinSyria

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That's exactly my point. Whiskey is trying to tell me that Trump grew the GOP with these new lower class white voters in the midwest and that this is the new Republican path to victory. I'm saying Trump didn't grow shit. To the extent that he added those folks, he drove at least that many traditional Republican voters away. The only reason he won is because Clinton was shit, exactly as you said. If Mitt Romney represents "generic boring Republican," then Trump adding to the GOP electorate would mean a bigger red bar in 2016 than 2012, i.e. Romney's coalition PLUS lower class white voters in the Midwest.

(Obama - White Working Cass) = Clinton < (Trump + White Working Class - #NeverTrump) < Romney < Obama

Don't forget the start of the Great Boomer Die Out. Probably took a bigger toll on Republican totals than nevertrump.

And the analysis really varies from state to state. Maybe the story in New York was HRC winning by 20% because of NeverTrump, but in states like Florida and Wisconsin where the election was decided it was rural turnout that swung it with a shout out to voter suppression in WI and NC.

I don't think Trump has a prayer in 4 years because his entire campaign was a lie, but certainly he is not going to perceive his mandate as a traditional republican one.
 
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Cackalacky

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Not to get into the middle of this part of the discussion as I don't have a lot to add other than personal anecdotes, but I will say that when it comes to race, South Carolina is a completely different world for me. My family and I sometimes feel like we have moved to a different country. It has been pretty difficult...

Thank you. I feel lost in the wilderness on here discussing this. Kind of like Confused Travolta
 

IrishinSyria

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Thank you. I feel lost in the wilderness on here discussing this. Kind of like Confused Travolta


I was in South Carolina a few years back with a large group of friends when three large white dudes came up to one of my tiny Indian (dot not feather) friends and started shoving him and telling him to go back to Arabia. Me and another hockey player who ended up being an army ranger had to intervene forceably. Besides that it seemed like a lovely state.
 
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Cackalacky

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I was in South Carolina a few years back with a large group of friends when three large white dudes came up to one of my tiny Indian (dot not feather) friends and started shoving him and telling him to go back to Arabia. Me and another hockey player who ended up being an army ranger had to intervene forceably. Besides that it seemed like a lovely state.

Environmentally and food wise it's amazing. The people and culture.... uhg
 

tussin

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Wiz or Whiskey, this information may be available (haven't looked into it yet), but I think it's hard to draw conclusions on the effectiveness of "Trumpism" without doing a deep dive of GOP turnout by state and income bracket. He may have had huge gains in rural turnout, lost equal votes from "coastal elites," and that may have resulted in a winning strategy for the electoral college but not the popular vote.

Also, it's hard to analyze the GOP prospects moving forward without figuring out exactly what HRC was as a candidate. Was she historically bad, was BO historically good, or was it a combination of both?

Perhaps, fiscal conservatism is a winning strategy after all? I posted this in August 2015 and it seems to have been spot on in retrospect:

I think you are overestimating the Dems strategy in general elections. Obama won because of his likability and ability to get people to turn out for the election that wouldn't otherwise (i.e. minorities and young voters). Putting his actual successes and failures as POTUS aside, an election candidate with that kind of broad appeal really is transformational for any political party and comes around every generation or so.

That won't be the case for the Dems this time. Hillary can't hold a candle to Barack on the campaign trail. The Dems don't have a foolproof "blueprint to success" in national elections... they got lucky with the right guy at the right time.
 
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phgreek

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I was in South Carolina a few years back with a large group of friends when three large white dudes came up to one of my tiny Indian (dot not feather) friends and started shoving him and telling him to go back to Arabia. Me and another hockey player who ended up being an army ranger had to intervene forceably. Besides that it seemed like a lovely state.

I'm sorry, this made me laugh really hard. Not to minimize the subject matter.

But you must be the eternal optimist or something.


The Mafia parallel might be....Besides having the end of my Pinky cut off, I thought John Gotti was really accommodating.
 

ACamp1900

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And Cack is trying to get me to move to this place... I see what's going on here...........
 
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GoIrish41

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That's exactly my point. Whiskey is trying to tell me that Trump grew the GOP with these new lower class white voters in the midwest and that this is the new Republican path to victory. I'm saying Trump didn't grow shit. To the extent that he added those folks, he drove at least that many traditional Republican voters away. The only reason he won is because Clinton was shit, exactly as you said. If Mitt Romney represents "generic boring Republican," then Trump adding to the GOP electorate would mean a bigger red bar in 2016 than 2012, i.e. Romney's coalition PLUS lower class white voters in the Midwest.

(Obama - White Working Cass) = Clinton < (Trump + White Working Class - #NeverTrump) < Romney < Obama

I'm on your side here, but you have to acknowledge that he moved the voters that mattered in the right places on the map. That is something that the dems need to lock down before these states turn red in the future. Which the optimist in me believes Trump will go too far and drag more than a few of his supporters to be in a box four years from now. If, for example, he dicks with trade by throwing a big tariff on China, as he suggested, that will have an upward impact of prices on all manner of goods. Will 4 years of such policy inspire people who vote on pocketbook issues to stick with him? What effect might throwing 20 million people off heath insurance roles have on angry voters to whom promises were made and results "guaranteed" by this deal making genius?

Even it is some sort of migration to the right, which on a national level I agree there is not, in the rust belt it appears to have mattered to the folks who decided to vote. I believe it will be short lived if there are no results -- the math stops working. If they don't deliver they are just another 4 year of politicians who lied to them.
 
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