2016 Presidential Horse Race

[ulukinatme]

 

[kmoose]

I posted this earlier this morning but no one responded, anyone care to?
Moody's: Hillary Clinton's economy would create 10.4 million jobs in 4 years - Jul. 29, 2016

The lead author for this report from Moody's did donate to HRC campaign last year but he also served a an economic advisor to McCain.

How many jobs will it kill? The article doesn't say that it will create a NET 10.4 million jobs. If she creates 10.4, but kills 20.4, then will we be better off?

 

[RDU Irish]

I posted this earlier this morning but no one responded, anyone care to?
Moody's: Hillary Clinton's economy would create 10.4 million jobs in 4 years - Jul. 29, 2016

The lead author for this report from Moody's did donate to HRC campaign last year but he also served a an economic advisor to McCain.

For one "paid family leave would bring people into the workforce" - sounds like you are increasing the cost of hiring people and opening the door for more hiring discrimination amongst women of child bearing age. I see that as a net negative to job growth - their assumption is the opposite.

I do agree that higher minimum wage means less jobs - also think wage creep is not well accounted for in these models. Not to mention older workers pushing younger out of the work force as Home Depot is much more likely to hire grandpa who will stay on for a long time and have experience actually using the tools he is stocking to advise customers versus the teenager looking to gain work experience while he pays for college. This creates a long term structural deficiency in the lifetime earning potential of the young worker.

When we talk about big vs small businesses - both of these issues definitely benefit big established and make it more difficult for the small/new business. Look for a an even bigger move to contract workers and part time workers versus full time W2 employees. Corporatism reigns and small biz, working class get the buzz saw. But at least Baristas and burger flippers make $12/hour to start.

Infrastructure spending, LOL! You mean like the shovel ready stimulus jobs? Boondoggle bull shit - that money will go to pay off cronies and a minimal amount would actually go to projects like they claim. Who the hell is still falling for that one from Dems? It is a big jobs multiplier in the model which is why they always throw it in there. funny though - Trump's Wall never gets credit for creating jobs

On the "revenue" side - taxing Wall Street ain't happening under Clinton, she is obviously in the bag for Wall Street and using that BS to pad the modeling numbers. Remember - she and her ilk know how to game the system and part of that is giving Moody's/CBO and other like them variables to their models.

Most of Trump's negative modeling is a function of modeling the most extreme trade deal assumptions and a hyuge work force reduction from kicking out illegal immigrants. I think both of these are grossly overstated and reality will be far from rhetoric 1) b/c that is how Trump negotiates, 2) the rest of DC would never allow it to run through like he is blathering now.

 

[RDU Irish]

How many jobs will it kill? The article doesn't say that it will create a NET 10.4 million jobs. If she creates 10.4, but kills 20.4, then will we be better off?

They account for net jobs -"Gradually hiking the minimum wage to $12 would reduce employment by 650,000 as businesses chose to hire fewer low-wage employees. "

This does not show the trajectory though - same political trick - lets raise it so the negative effects are kicked down the road. Same with infrastructure - those are temporary jobs. Once the road is built those workers go home!

Also - what about Trump's repatriation of foreign profits plan? He gets $2 trillion brought back to the US and reforms corporate taxes so companies are rushing the entrance instead of the exit we are talking an actual structural change to improve US competitiveness. We have heard Rs and Ds promote this in the past so I think he can get it done.

 

[pkt77242]

How many jobs will it kill? The article doesn't say that it will create a NET 10.4 million jobs. If she creates 10.4, but kills 20.4, then will we be better off?

It is net.

Here is the full report.
https://www.economy.com/mark-zandi/documents/2016-07-28-The-Macroeconomic-Consequences-of-Secretary-Clintons-Economic-Policies.pdf

 

[pkt77242]

They account for net jobs -"Gradually hiking the minimum wage to $12 would reduce employment by 650,000 as businesses chose to hire fewer low-wage employees. "

This does not show the trajectory though - same political trick - lets raise it so the negative effects are kicked down the road. Same with infrastructure - those are temporary jobs. Once the road is built those workers go home!

Also - what about Trump's repatriation of foreign profits plan? He gets $2 trillion brought back to the US and reforms corporate taxes so companies are rushing the entrance instead of the exit we are talking an actual structural change to improve US competitiveness. We have heard Rs and Ds promote this in the past so I think he can get it done.

Two things.
1. The report shows the unemployment rate dipping to 3.7% during the middle of the term but rising again towards the end (mid 4's I believe) and that would make sense as the construction jobs ends (though I don't think that they give the specific reason).

2. We really have some shoddy as infrastructure that either needs to be fixed or replaced. Say what you want about the "stimulus" part of it but some of it is in desperate need of fixing/replacing.

 

[Shamrock Theories]

Hehehhehe

"I don’t think name calling has any place in public life, and I thought that was unfortunate that the president of the United States would use a term like that,” Pence said.

This was in response to President Barack Obama calling Donald Trump a “homegrown demagogue” during his speech at the Democratic National Convention.

 

[pkt77242]

Here is Moody's report on the Trump economy.

https://www.economy.com/mark-zandi/documents/2016-06-17-Trumps-Economic-Policies.pdf

 

[IrishLax]

When you have no answer, you resort to name calling

Accurately assessing the utter lack of intelligence or logic displayed in your posts isn't "name calling."

not the first time you've done that. I said it would take the perfect storm for Republicans to win a national election unless they became more inclusive. Well, Hillary Clinton is your perfect storm. If Biden, Sanders, or any other Democrat was running against Trump, the election would be all over. The Democrats choice of Clinton has given you the perfect storm.

If you can get past your Tea Party members and nominate a more inclusive candidate, then there is hope for the Republican Party in the future.

Huh? Since when am I a Republican? Oh, nevermind it's just you being wrong like you are about literally almost everything you post. Carry on.

Your two most moderate candidates, Kasich and Rubio, didn't have a chance in your own primary. You can call my comments stupid, but your base is shrinking with each election. You can make room for others in your party or you can go the way of the Whigs.

Which is why they finished 3rd and 4th out of more than a dozen candidates winning multiple states...? Pray tell how they didn't "have a chance"? Just more incorrect, uninformed, and illogical drivel.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

The DNC aint what it used to be:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Ok but the 1996 DNC was lit <a href="https://t.co/nuHp1lBND8">pic.twitter.com/nuHp1lBND8</a></p>— Jesse McLaren (@McJesse) <a href="https://twitter.com/McJesse/status/759097584531243008">July 29, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[woolybug25]

Hehehhehe

"I don’t think name calling has any place in public life, and I thought that was unfortunate that the president of the United States would use a term like that,” Pence said.

This was in response to President Barack Obama calling Donald Trump a “homegrown demagogue” during his speech at the Democratic National Convention.

Pence is clearly low energy.

 

[ulukinatme]

Holy crap, this was 20 years ago...

<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Ok but the 1996 DNC was lit <a href="https://t.co/nuHp1lBND8">pic.twitter.com/nuHp1lBND8</a></p>— Jesse McLaren (@McJesse) <a href="https://twitter.com/McJesse/status/759097584531243008">July 29, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

https://twitter.com/McJesse/status/759097584531243008

[EDIT] Dammit...I probably should have refreshed before I posted this...

 

[NorthDakota]

Pence is clearly low energy.

Ying and yang baby. Why do you think The Don chose him!?

 

[MJ12666]

Moody's: Hillary Clinton's economy would create 10.4 million jobs in 4 years - Jul. 29, 2016

Considering their part in the financial crisis I would would not put too much credence in this estimate. They are putting this out there to get on the good side of the Obama's DOJ.

Moody's Fate in Subprime Probe to Be Decided Soon by U.S. - Bloomberg

 

[dshans]

Ying and yang baby. Why do you think The Don chose him!?

That would be Yin.



Though I thoroughly understand the propensity toward harmonic balance.

 

[wizards8507]

That would be Yin.

Though I thoroughly understand the propensity toward harmonic balance.

For some reason I say "yin and yang" properly, but I call this thing a ying-yang.

 

[dshans]

I got the sarcasm even without the italics...maybe I should have used them as well

My bad.

I'll check my preconceived bias, misconceptions and knee-jerk responses at the door.

I can retrieve them using a simple claim check and generous tip.

 

[ACamp1900]

My bad.

I'll check my preconceived bias, misconceptions and knee-jerk responses at the door.

I can retrieve them using a simple claim check and generous tip.

White privilege at its worst.

 

[pkt77242]

Considering their part in the financial crisis I would would not put too much credence in this estimate. They are putting this out there to get on the good side of the Obama's DOJ.

Moody's Fate in Subprime Probe to Be Decided Soon by U.S. - Bloomberg

So do you trust anything that the large banks or any of the ratings companies do, because they all played a part in the financial crisis?

 

[MJ12666]

So do you trust anything that the large banks or any of the ratings companies do, because they all played a part in the financial crisis?

No especially when it comes to economic forecasts like the one you referenced. Business Week a couple of years ago did study that showed that economic estimates are wrong approximately 90% of the time. Just look at Q2 2016 GDP announced today. The consensus estimate was 2.6% and the actual was 1.2%. That is a big difference.

 

[woolybug25]

Considering their part in the financial crisis I would would not put too much credence in this estimate. They are putting this out there to get on the good side of the Obama's DOJ.

Moody's Fate in Subprime Probe to Be Decided Soon by U.S. - Bloomberg

 

[MJ12666]

Considering their part in the financial crisis I would would not put too much credence in this estimate. They are putting this out there to get on the good side of the Obama's DOJ.

Moody's Fate in Subprime Probe to Be Decided Soon by U.S. - Bloomberg

I should have put this in italics. I was really being a bit facetious; although I would not put it past them. Personally I think Moody's & S&P execs should have been put in jail.

 

[woolybug25]

I should have put this in italics. I was really being a bit facetious; although I would not put it past them. Personally I think they (including execs of S&P) should have been put in jail.

Totes. Probably the most costly fraud in US history but yet not one person from any rating agency went to prison. Crazy.

 

[connor_in]

My bad.

I'll check my preconceived bias, misconceptions and knee-jerk responses at the door.

I can retrieve them using a simple claim check and generous tip.

No problem my friend

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Totes. Probably the most costly fraud in US history but yet not one person from any rating agency went to prison. Crazy.

Prominently featured in the critically-acclaimed film The Big Short as well, so it's not like this is a super technical issue of which normal Americans are completely unaware.

 

[dshans]

White privilege at its worst.

Nope.

Privilege at its's finest.

White, Black, Yellow, Red, or Orange don't make no matter.



Black and green printed ugly and old white men matter!

 

[pkt77242]

I should have put this in italics. I was really being a bit facetious; although I would not put it past them. Personally I think Moody's & S&P execs should have been put in jail.

Agreed.

 

[connor_in]

http://img2.izismile.com/img/img9/20160729/640/daily_picdump_1266_640_high_108.jpg



/END THREAD

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

Not much difference other than George W. making an effort to gain the support of Hispanics. After Romney lost, I thought the Republicans had learned that it would take a perfect storm for them to win a national election unless they widened their base of support by toning down their rhetoric. You can't offend every group except white males and hope to be a viable party in the future. Like it or not, these other groups are increasing not only their percentage of the population as a whole, but also their willingness to be participants in the process.

The Republicans have three options.

1. Become more inclusive or continue to lose national elections and gradually the local elections as well
2. Find a way to prevent or discourage non-whites from voting
3. Cease to exist as a party

Right now, they have chosen option #2, which they've attempted to do by restricting voting days/hours, limiting voter registration options like same day registration, introducing legislation designed to create long lines in minority voting precincts, requiring specific types of voter ID that are more difficult for some to obtain, undoing or failing to renew voting rights legislation, preventing party-line voting options, making it more difficult to obtain absentee ballots, etc.

Wow. You were not born. You were hatched...from some kind of twisted lab somewhere

 

[dshans]

I just wish I knew how to free these question marks, encased in blue and surrounded by double, thin , square black lines ...