'15 NJ QB Brandon Wimbush (Notre Dame Signed NLI)

[snoopdog]

Wimbush 30 total TDs to 6 interceptions for those of you who think Book would have made this team better are idiotic. Room for Improvement no doubt.

Defence was more of a factor in the 9 wins.

Wimbush was more of factor in the 3 losses

I have no doubt the overall offense this year would have been more PRODUCTIVE with Book

 

[NorthDakota]

Wimbush 30 total TDs to 6 interceptions for those of you who think Book would have made this team better are idiotic. Room for Improvement no doubt.

Literally anyone with his passing stats has room for improvement. He couldn't throw all year. He was bad. He can run like the wind blows. But that's about it.

 

[OlympiaIrishFan]

Under 50 percent thrower. Missed many wide open td throws. He was a horrid thrower this year. The offensive line and Adams had a ton to do with the wins. Brandon’s running ability is great. Especially when Adams was running great, but he is a horrid thrower. Just horrid. I don’t believe he had the yips, he was a bad thrower all year. I just think he absolutely choked under the pressure of the end of the year expectations and rankings, which lead to the even worse throwing especially short at the end of the season.

But, I guess it is typical Kelly coaching. He hurts QB progression.

 

[Old Man Mike]

IE never gives credit for the superior construct of the Kelly/Long offense (despite it being statistically rather potent for many years over many quarterbacks.) Golson, when he wasn't panicking, made it work; Rees, despite his unwillingness to run, made it work; Kizer almost made it kill, weather permitting. If IE could get off its anti-Kelly bias and give credit to offensive structure, then Wimbush's successes could be seen as at least partly, probably majorly, due to the offensive plan.

If one can make that not-too-hard leap, then Wimbush's OWN failures to run this offense smoothly become more starkly obvious. AND, it just might be that Tommy-Rees-with-Athleticism (aka Ian Book) could run it just fine, and at a higher productivity than even Tommy managed. (anyone smirking at that might refresh themselves with the career statistics --- if that guy could run I can't imagine what those numbers would have been like, including escapability eliminating some of the turnovers.)

I hoping for Wimbush. I'm fearing that we have another Golson "because his ceiling is so much higher." --- but the floor is seeming much closer to reality.

 

[Bluto]

But, I guess it is typical Kelly coaching. He hurts QB progression.

Maybe he's not that great at evaluating QB's to begin with? ND passed on both Hogan and Costlleo I believe. Hogan won Stanford a lot of games (the dude was tough as nails too) and it's looking like Costello is gonna do the same . Meanwhile, all the QB's that flamed out at ND transferred to other schools and didn't do much at those places either. The one NFL QB he has produced looked like he was destined to ride the pine until the guy in front of him (who in hindsight was nowhere near as good) got hurt. To Mike's point, one can engineer the most bad ass race car in the world. If you can't find someone competent to drive it however, you're still going to lose a lot of races. It seems like Kelly's problem is finding competent drivers.

 

[Old Man Mike]

In his last hay-days at Cincinnati, Coach had two really good QBs at the same time: Pike (the stand-in-the-pocket, see-the-field, occasionally but effectively run, old school QB) and Colares (the spectacular jock, killer-passer/runner-scrambler.)

With Pike he could beat (given the other recruiting limitations at Cincinnati which we at ND don't have) almost anybody who would show up on the schedule, and by efficient "system."

With Colares he might just beat anybody at all.

With either, he scored so quickly that his defense was always gassed. (Kelly viewed this as too bad but that's how it was going to be.)

In my opinion, Coach has been looking for "Colares" and not "Pike". Golson, Zaire, and Wimbush are/were hopes for Colares. Book is Pike. Kizer was Pike with muscle to squeeze a little more out of plays. We rolled with "Pike with Muscle" and for the most part with Pike without athleticism (Tommy.) We haven't shown game-complete competence with our "Colares's".

Jurkovic looks more like Pike/Kizer to me --- and WELCOME.

 

[NDRock]

BW obviously struggled very much in the pass game. My only defense for him was this year’s group of pass catchers were the worst I’ve seen since before Weis got here. Dropped too many passes and seemed to never win a one-on-one battle. Thank God Stepherson came on.

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

Everyone can criticize Brandon's mechanics all they want, justly.

BUT

30 TDs to 6 ints (with a couple blind side fumbles throw in)
vs
Everett Golson's hot mess of (usually super) untimely turnovers...

Side by side: I'm more optimistic about developing a guy like Brandon than Everett any day

Brandon's decision making seems to be, relatively ok, given his poor accuracy. But rarely this season did he F up like Everett did.

 

[ThePiombino]

BW obviously struggled very much in the pass game. My only defense for him was this year’s group of pass catchers were the worst I’ve seen since before Weis got here. Dropped too many passes and seemed to never win a one-on-one battle. Thank God Stepherson came on.

It certainly didn't help, but that was only a small % of BW's incompletions.

 

[ThePiombino]

Everyone can criticize Brandon's mechanics all they want, justly.

BUT

30 TDs to 6 ints (with a couple blind side fumbles throw in)
vs
Everett Golson's hot mess of (usually super) untimely turnovers...

Side by side: I'm more optimistic about developing a guy like Brandon than Everett any day

Brandon's decision making seems to be, relatively ok, given his poor accuracy. But rarely this season did he F up like Everett did.

30-6 tells me he's largely smart with his risk/reward thinking. But it doesn't excuse his inaccuracy. To be honest, he probably should have had AT LEAST a handful more INTs that fell through the defenses' hands, if not more. The fact that he generally doesn't sling it is good, but it would be a lot better if he could hit water falling out of a boat too.

 

[IrishLion]

In his last hay-days at Cincinnati, Coach had two really good QBs at the same time: Pike (the stand-in-the-pocket, see-the-field, occasionally but effectively run, old school QB) and Colares (the spectacular jock, killer-passer/runner-scrambler.)

With Pike he could beat (given the other recruiting limitations at Cincinnati which we at ND don't have) almost anybody who would show up on the schedule, and by efficient "system."

With Colares he might just beat anybody at all.

With either, he scored so quickly that his defense was always gassed. (Kelly viewed this as too bad but that's how it was going to be.)

In my opinion, Coach has been looking for "Colares" and not "Pike". Golson, Zaire, and Wimbush are/were hopes for Colares. Book is Pike. Kizer was Pike with muscle to squeeze a little more out of plays. We rolled with "Pike with Muscle" and for the most part with Pike without athleticism (Tommy.) We haven't shown game-complete competence with our "Colares's".

Jurkovic looks more like Pike/Kizer to me --- and WELCOME.

I maintained from the start that Kizer was Pike-on-Steroids for the purposes of BK's offense. And it looked to be trending that way near the end of '15.

That makes it all the more perplexing as to how he screwed up the QB competition so badly heading into '16. Going back to Zaire was essentially taking a chance on hoping he could stay healthy and be the "Collaros" to the offense that BK had been looking for, when the reality was that Kizer had already proven over extended reps that he could be what the offense needed.

Idk if it's his desire for that ultimate mobile QB, or just his ego getting in the way, but he did the team a disservice with the extended QB competition in '16.

I think Phil J can be even MORE Pike-on-Steroids. A little more speed than Kizer, the fram to bulk up for the wear-and-tear, the ability to sling it from the pocket, AND the killer instinct. I just hope ND fans are patient, because Pike wasn't "the man" until his junior year, after sufficient seasoning and motivation behind-the-scenes from BK.

 

[NDohio]

Everyone can criticize Brandon's mechanics all they want, justly.

BUT

30 TDs to 6 ints (with a couple blind side fumbles throw in)
vs
Everett Golson's hot mess of (usually super) untimely turnovers...

Side by side: I'm more optimistic about developing a guy like Brandon than Everett any day

Brandon's decision making seems to be, relatively ok, given his poor accuracy. But rarely this season did he F up like Everett did.

Here is the big difference. EG was a stone cold killer late in games prior to his loss of confidence. EG flat out won us a couple of games with late game heroics that I could never see BW doing. I think that EG was a better QB early on than BW is. My biggest concern is that for some reason EG completely lost it at some point and the coaches weren't able to get him dialed back in. Unfortunately I feel like BW is already there. He has no confidence and the moment always seems bigger than him. I hope the different coaches that are here now can build his confidence while working on his mechanics.

 

[IrishLax]

IE never gives credit for the superior construct of the Kelly/Long offense (despite it being statistically rather potent for many years over many quarterbacks.) Golson, when he wasn't panicking, made it work; Rees, despite his unwillingness to run, made it work; Kizer almost made it kill, weather permitting. If IE could get off its anti-Kelly bias and give credit to offensive structure, then Wimbush's successes could be seen as at least partly, probably majorly, due to the offensive plan.

If one can make that not-too-hard leap, then Wimbush's OWN failures to run this offense smoothly become more starkly obvious. AND, it just might be that Tommy-Rees-with-Athleticism (aka Ian Book) could run it just fine, and at a higher productivity than even Tommy managed. (anyone smirking at that might refresh themselves with the career statistics --- if that guy could run I can't imagine what those numbers would have been like, including escapability eliminating some of the turnovers.)

I hoping for Wimbush. I'm fearing that we have another Golson "because his ceiling is so much higher." --- but the floor is seeming much closer to reality.

Here is the "statistical potency" of the ND offense under Kelly (FEI advanced stats opponent adjusted) --
57th
29th
29th
37th
22nd
6th
38th
13th

Average - 29th
Median - 29th

I'll let people draw their own conclusions about giving "credit to offensive structure." If you aspire to be a top 10 team in the hunt for playoff berths and NY6 bowls, an odd way to go about it is with an offense that rarely ranks inside the top 20.

 

[RDU Irish]

IE never gives credit for the superior construct of the Kelly/Long offense (despite it being statistically rather potent for many years over many quarterbacks.) Golson, when he wasn't panicking, made it work; Rees, despite his unwillingness to run, made it work; Kizer almost made it kill, weather permitting. If IE could get off its anti-Kelly bias and give credit to offensive structure, then Wimbush's successes could be seen as at least partly, probably majorly, due to the offensive plan.

If one can make that not-too-hard leap, then Wimbush's OWN failures to run this offense smoothly become more starkly obvious. AND, it just might be that Tommy-Rees-with-Athleticism (aka Ian Book) could run it just fine, and at a higher productivity than even Tommy managed. (anyone smirking at that might refresh themselves with the career statistics --- if that guy could run I can't imagine what those numbers would have been like, including escapability eliminating some of the turnovers.)

I hoping for Wimbush. I'm fearing that we have another Golson "because his ceiling is so much higher." --- but the floor is seeming much closer to reality.

Ceiling doesn't do you any good if it is not there in crunch time versus top opponents. The kid is three years in the program, groomed to take over after Kizer - and we think his mechanics and focus are going to improve from Junior to Senior year exponentially? Give me less athletic competence under pressure over a dynamic bed wetter every day of the week. What have they been coaching this kid on for three years? Running scout team was he really not sailing 20% of his tosses and showing all of these tendencies or did they give BVG and the D a false sense of competence in practice as if they forced those errors?

Wimbush's INT ratio is kind of funny to me - they were not asking him to make those throws early in the year that were high probability F ups. The more defenses keyed on what he could throw the more they learned he what he was incapable of - and capitalized.

The Kizer/Zaire saga is an excellent testament to the Kelly management of the QB position. He is so drawn to the most athletic QBs he can't see a freaking gift staring him in the face. We don't have to make do with less - go get the 6'4" guys that can see the field AND have good (maybe not great) athleticism to extend plays. Kizer is you recruiting profile, not Zaire - yet here we stand with Wimbush in the driver seat and Phil staring at the bench for two years when he should be groomed to take over sooner rather than later. The sad reality - Wimbush's strength will get him hurt (like this year) and the probability of starting a full season is slim when you are running 20 times a game against 85% bowl eligible teams.

 

[RDU Irish]

30-6 tells me he's largely smart with his risk/reward thinking. But it doesn't excuse his inaccuracy. To be honest, he probably should have had AT LEAST a handful more INTs that fell through the defenses' hands, if not more. The fact that he generally doesn't sling it is good, but it would be a lot better if he could hit water falling out of a boat too.

I'd love to see his passes charted out - I imagine the middle of the field is a disaster though. Sailing on 13 feet in the air to your leaping 6'5" WRs toward the sideline is much less destructive than that same pass over the middle of the field. The play calling makes me believe the coaches were not completely ignorant of this problem (as OMM credits) - my complaint is they had no answer when the defenses wised up.

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

Here is the big difference. EG was a stone cold killer late in games prior to his loss of confidence. EG flat out won us a couple of games with late game heroics that I could never see BW doing. I think that EG was a better QB early on than BW is. My biggest concern is that for some reason EG completely lost it at some point and the coaches weren't able to get him dialed back in. Unfortunately I feel like BW is already there. He has no confidence and the moment always seems bigger than him. I hope the different coaches that are here now can build his confidence while working on his mechanics.

"EG won games" argument can also be used for Brandon as well. You take away his 30 TDs you think they still win? The glaring difference in "heroics" is, Brandon didn't have the same number of opportunities as Everett. 9 games this year Brandon had cushion and could play conservative.

EG also pulled off a couple "heroic comebacks" in games in which his turnovers put them in the compromised position to begin with.

The largest difference between the two is... Brandon I can trust in the redzone, Everett was wayyy too sloppy in the redzone.

Brandon thinks too much (to a fault), Everett was too loose (to a fault).

I'm still taking a Brandon type of QB as a development guy over an Everett (especially considering Brandon's physical gifts: size and speed: are greater than EGs)

 

[RDU Irish]

"EG won games" argument can also be used for Brandon as well. You take away his 30 TDs you think they still win? The glaring difference in "heroics" is, Brandon didn't have the same number of opportunities as Everett. 9 games this year Brandon had cushion and could play conservative.

EG also pulled off a couple "heroic comebacks" in games in which his turnovers put them in the compromised position to begin with.

The largest difference between the two is... Brandon I can trust in the redzone, Everett was wayyy too sloppy in the redzone.

Brandon thinks too much (to a fault), Everett was too loose (to a fault).

I'm still taking a Brandon type of QB as a development guy over an Everett (especially considering Brandon's physical gifts: size and speed: are greater than EGs)

As a frosh - absolutely. HE IS A JUNIOR THOUGH - a junior first time starter with the worst accuracy in P5 is kind of a problem and does not project out the same as a frosh.

 

[Domina Nostra]

Here is the "statistical potency" of the ND offense under Kelly (FEI advanced stats opponent adjusted) --
57th
29th
29th
37th
22nd
6th
38th
13th

Average - 29th
Median - 29th

I'll let people draw their own conclusions about giving "credit to offensive structure." If you aspire to be a top 10 team in the hunt for playoff berths and NY6 bowls, an odd way to go about it is with an offense that rarely ranks inside the top 20.

There is something to this, but so much of it is scheduling and defense.

Two automatic 60-0 wins over, say Mercer and Albany, are pretty helpful. 10 games against MAC or Big 12 defenses is REALLY helpful.

And once you are past that, talent, not scheme, is what makes Ohio State, Clemson, and USC hum.

Of the offenses that rank ahead of us, which is really scary?

1 Oklahoma - Yes
2 Oklahoma St. - Unclear
3 Louisville 12 - No
4 Ohio St. - Sometimes
5 Memphis - No
6 UCF - No
7 Missouri - No
8 South Fla. - No
9 Toledo - No
10 Colorado St. - No
11 Arizona - No
12 SMU - No
13 Southern California - Sometimes
14 Arkansas St. - No
15 West Virginia - No
16 Fla. Atlantic - No
17 La.-Monroe - No
18 Auburn - Yes
19 North Texas - No
20 Texas Tech - No
21 UCLA - No
22 Alabama - No
23 Ole Miss - No
24 Clemson - Yes
25 Syracuse - No

 

[ThePiombino]

Heard an interesting breakdown of BW's passing % on the ISD podcast. I'm sure someone can provide the exact #s, but apparently BW passed for a decent 55% or so on 3rd down and ~40% on 1st and 2nd down. Totally backwards. What on earth can one attribute that to?

 

[IrishLax]

There is something to this, but so much of it is scheduling and defense.

Two automatic 60-0 wins over, say Mercer and Albany, are pretty helpful. 10 games against MAC or Big 12 defenses is REALLY helpful.

And once you are past that, talent, not scheme, is what makes Ohio State, Clemson, and USC hum.

Of the offenses that rank ahead of us, which is really scary?

1 Oklahoma - Yes
2 Oklahoma St. - Unclear
3 Louisville 12 - No
4 Ohio St. - Sometimes
5 Memphis - No
6 UCF - No
7 Missouri - No
8 South Fla. - No
9 Toledo - No
10 Colorado St. - No
11 Arizona - No
12 SMU - No
13 Southern California - Sometimes
14 Arkansas St. - No
15 West Virginia - No
16 Fla. Atlantic - No
17 La.-Monroe - No
18 Auburn - Yes
19 North Texas - No
20 Texas Tech - No
21 UCLA - No
22 Alabama - No
23 Ole Miss - No
24 Clemson - Yes
25 Syracuse - No

I'm confused by your posts, I listed our FEI rankings on offense from 2010 until now. All are opponent adjusted and measure drive efficiency.

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

As a frosh - absolutely. HE IS A JUNIOR THOUGH - a junior first time starter with the worst accuracy in P5 is kind of a problem and does not project out the same as a frosh.

EVERETT WAS A SENIOR and still made awful, awful turnovers.

What's your point here?

 

[ThePiombino]

EVERETT WAS A SENIOR and still made awful, awful turnovers.

What's your point here?

EG also showed multiple flashes before his regression. Still waiting for BW to show any semblance at all of being able to consistently "do it".

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

Also,
Let us not forgot that 50% completion percentage, with Brandon's running "conversions" is not the same production as a 50% pocket passer.

Too many people here are labeling him as a poor QB, because of poor passing. When in actuality, for most of the season, he did a great job of overall production.

(and again, as another reminder, I'm not downplaying the accuracy concerns, nor am I accepting them...I'm just trying to give the guy's overall "production" a fair shake)

 

[Domina Nostra]

I'm confused by your posts, I listed our FEI rankings on offense from 2010 until now. All are opponent adjusted and measure drive efficiency.

Don't be confused! I read your post, thought it was interesting, but I ended up looking at the wrong statistical chart.

I wanted to see if the teams that were ranked ahead of ND had offenses that I envy. In other words, are these the kind of offense that, if we ran with our personnel, I think we'd be winning more? Are these the kind of offenses that I wish we had or fear to play?

1 Oklahoma - Yes
2 Oklahoma State - Can't tell, but probably
3 Ohio State - Most of the time, and elite athletes
4 Georgia - No, but elite athletes
5 Army - No
6 Alabama - No, but elite athletes
7 Arizona - No
8 Washington - No
9 Penn State - No, but SB
10 Louisville - No, but LJ
11 Central Florida - No
12 Florida Atlantic - No
13 Notre Dame
14 SMU - No
15 Auburn - Most of the time

So I guess I take those stats with a grain of salt.

I've actually been impressed with Kelly's ability to structure an offense. His failings seem to come in other places, like: (1) inconsistent recruiting (always one or two really weak links), (2) failing to adjust the offense to the personnel (especially late in the season, when our tendencies emerge), (3) predictable/stubborn play-calling in important situations; (4) motivation for big games, and (5) going with seniority over talent as a rule.

Malzahn was considered a great offensive coach, then a bad one, now a good one again. I think he's always been good. But teams, opponents, and circumstances make each year look very different. Similar thoughts with Kelly.

This year, it's hard to judge the play calling based on the numbers because Wimbush has been so erratic and our WR's seem to drop a good number as well. Have I liked the play calling? Not always, but its tough to know what's going on.

 

[IrishLax]

Also,
Let us not forgot that 50% completion percentage, with Brandon's running "conversions" is not the same production as a 50% pocket passer.

Too many people here are labeling him as a poor QB, because of poor passing. When in actuality, for most of the season, he did a great job of overall production.

(and again, as another reminder, I'm not downplaying the accuracy concerns, nor am I accepting them...I'm just trying to give the guy's overall "production" a fair shake)

Well said.

What I'd like to see is him improve in like 100 different areas, but I'd also like to see them get rid of RPOs because he's obviously "over thinking" out there and this is certainly contributing. Having him try to make three decisions at the mesh point when he's not even proficient at throwing the ball on time to single reads is just asking for disaster. Why not streamline everything and go back to the tempo that worked for most of this year? I feel like the reason he's inaccurate and not progressing is in large part because they're asking him to drink from a fire hose. Kelly did the same thing with Golson in '14 and Kizer in '16... Kizer played way better with a simplified offense. "More" doesn't mean "better." The only QB they brought along incrementally was Rees and that's mostly because he kept getting benched.

 

[RDU Irish]

Also,
Let us not forgot that 50% completion percentage, with Brandon's running "conversions" is not the same production as a 50% pocket passer.

Too many people here are labeling him as a poor QB, because of poor passing. When in actuality, for most of the season, he did a great job of overall production.

(and again, as another reminder, I'm not downplaying the accuracy concerns, nor am I accepting them...I'm just trying to give the guy's overall "production" a fair shake)

Which is why his efficiency numbers don't suck. However, game by game his lack of efficiency has destroyed our chances of winning. Variability is a function of his erratic passing and defenses ability to take away his bread and butter.

 

[Domina Nostra]

Well said.

What I'd like to see is him improve in like 100 different areas, but I'd also like to see them get rid of RPOs because he's obviously "over thinking" out there and this is certainly contributing. Having him try to make three decisions at the mesh point when he's not even proficient at throwing the ball on time to single reads is just asking for disaster. Why not streamline everything and go back to the tempo that worked for most of this year?

Yup. It seems like he's actually at his best when he basically just looks at his number one option and, if it's not there, takes off.

However, I am still holding out that his Junior to Senior year jump in high school will repeat in college. One way or another, I think he calms down a lot next year and that helps.

 

[ACamp1900]

I'd also like to see them get rid of RPOs because he's obviously "over thinking" out there ...

All we need to do is slow things down for him, have plays that don't develop so quickly... that sort of thing.............

 

[snoopdog]

As a frosh - absolutely. HE IS A JUNIOR THOUGH - a junior first time starter with the worst accuracy in P5 is kind of a problem and does not project out the same as a frosh.

One foot down said Wimbush trajectory should be compared to Lamar Jackson's whereby Jackson struggled as a First year starter and then won a Heisman as a second year starter.

1) Couple of points the article failed to mention was, Jackson and Wimbush are the same age. They came into college in 2015 and both are in their 3rd year. Athletically I would say they were similar, but Jackson is just more productive.

2) Wimbush next season will be challenged even more with the loss of McG and Nelson. I can't believe how much this gets ignored. Losing two first round O-line in the same year is crushing. Phil will get take advantage of Eichenberg, Kraemer, Hainsay, Banks and Lugg in two years....but next year will be a struggle.

3) Strength of Schedule....next year will be a beast... pity the fool who has to try and perform game after game next year. First game....say hello to Rashan Gary

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

EG also showed multiple flashes before his regression. Still waiting for BW to show any semblance at all of being able to consistently "do it".

NO FLASHES from Brandon, as QB???

HE RUSHED for 765 yards and 14 TDS!!! That's not a flash of consistency in terms of production?

When, at any point in his career, did Everett show consistency with his decision makings? He was the very definition of inconsistent (hence Tommy coming in, and later Malik against LSU).

EDIT:
Also, what about our consistency in the redzone (one of the best years in ND history)...Not good enough for a first year starter?