I understand what you're getting at, this may be an agree to disagree scenario. I just think that Day 1 in the NFL he would've been in a better spot if he stayed at ND. He probably gets drafted higher, he has more game tape and is also probably in better shape. Consider that he was a full time starter junior when he played in 2013 and his stats are similar to his freshman numbers in 2011 I don't think thats getting better. Include that he played weaker competition, I just have a hard time seeing how he got better from his Freshman to Junior seasons.
Once again, I totally agree that is probably what would have happened and definitely what would have happened had he applied himself 100% at ND in all phases of being a student athlete.
Most players would be better prepared staying at ND over going to USF as long as they were getting playing time at ND which Lynch was. The odds are he would be better but I can't rule out negative things that could've happened to him... poor choices he would have made, a lull in his development at ND (like USF) because he was going through personal issues at that time. A catastrophic injury he could have sustained having to play 2 more games against Navy (or any team but Navy's fun to pick on) Maybe something happens in South Bend that ends his career That can't be determined. Not everyone can buckle down and get through what they are going through away from home.
On the positive side, he got through college only playing 25 games and avoided a career altering injury.
I don't think this is an agree to disagree situation. I don't disagree with you, I just recognize that if one variable changes it sets off a completely different change of events...maybe. The fact is, he's not sitting on a street corner with a cup in his hand. The decisions he's made didn't stop him from getting to the NFL and he's already made $620,000 in the last year with a chance to make millions more.