Predict your season vol. II

[k1ssme1m1r1sh]

Oh, k1ssme, I'm so sorry to hear this. I liked you, I really did – but this a a deal breaker.


To this day even the smell of Southern Comfort turns my stomach.

Awww Dshans I take the SoCo to the tailgates because it's cheap and I get buzzed pretty fast, but I can drink any kind of whiskey. Does that help my cause??

 

[jason_h537]

Overall Record: 11-2
Wins: USF, Pitt, Purdue, USC, Navy, Wake, Maryland, BC, Air Force
Losses: Stanford,
Toss up: Michigan, and Michigan St. (back to back i think we drop one)
Offensive MVP: O-line (cop out i know but they are gonna be good)
Defensive MVP: Harrison Smith
Bowl Game: Fiesta vs the team that comes in 2nd in the Pac 12/Big 10
Best Tailgating Beer: Theyre all good after a few
Inanimate object most likely to meet its demise: My coffee table.

 

[Rudy89]

Overall Record: 9-4
Wins: Who knows
Losses: See Above
Toss up: Every Game I can see us getting upset by a weak team and kicking the **** out of a team that goes onto win the big ten or pac 12
Offensive MVP: #3
Defensive MVP: Manti
Bowl Game: If we go to the champs on this record we will win it but itll be a midlevel bowl
Best Tailgating Beer: Bud Light (aspiring pro wrestler whos trying to develop a nice body I gotta keep it light)
Inanimate object most likely to meet its demise: Remote, Cell phone, Lamp, and part of a wall

 

[TDHeysus]

Riotous atmosphere in the Big House. Also Denard's speed off the edge.

X-factor that didnt exist last year....The Irish D stepping up to epic proportions.

 

[arrowryan]

The funniest thing about this thread is reading what you guys are going to break/destroy if something goes wrong. It was freakin hilarious! Im not goig to lie, I have thrown my cell phone, Ive thrown the remote, and Ive stomped on the ground like a little girl. Thanks for the laugh!

 

[dshans]

Awww Dshans I take the SoCo to the tailgates because it's cheap and I get buzzed pretty fast, but I can drink any kind of whiskey. Does that help my cause??

Most certainly, especially if you're buying. SoCo is whiskey mixed with a bunch of stuff, much of it sweet, that turns it into a liqueur. Mix it with an overly sweetened soft drink and it spells "trouble." With a capital "T." My blood sugar level spikes (not a good thing as you probably know), my stomach rebels and my olfactory sensibilities issue a "Warning, Will Robinson" flailing five alarm alert.

Good whiskey deserves to be appreciated on its own. Lesser quality "stuff" may warrant an ice cube or a splash of water, but never, NEVER a sweet syrupy concoction.

My attitude toward whiskey (be it Scotch, Irish, Sour Mash or Bourbon) is this: "If it's good, don't 'fix' it. If it ain't, don't drink it." The Mint Julep I had at the Kentucky Derby was a novelty but something I won't bother with again.

Should we ever meet at a tailgate, I'll be there with a jug of George Dickle in one hand and Jameson in the other. I'll turn my back and stand upwind if you choose to adulterate such fine products with something as vile as Coca-Cola.


My apologies to GoBlue for diverting your thread, but drinking, whether while tailgating or watching a game on TV, is an important part of college football. Beverage choices matter.

Oh, and the inanimate object most likely to meet its demise during a game is my neighbors sensibilities if they are sensitive to my screaming "inappropriate" things. This applies whether the Irish are beating the snot out of someone or sucking royally.

 

[Montana4president]

Overall Record:10-2
Wins:
Losses: pitt (we always lose 1 we shouldn't) Stanford
Toss up: UM MSU USC (rivalry games are hard to predict)
Offensive MVP:Floyd or Dayne
Defensive MVP: H. Smith
Bowl Game: Can't pretend I can predict that crazy system
Best Tailgating Beer: Natty light....jk Coors
Inanimate object most likely to meet its demise:My ND hat, hopefully it doesn't get as dirty as it did last year.

 

[pkt77242]

Overall Record: 10-3
Wins: Everyon but those listed below
Losses: Stanford
Toss up: Michigan, Michigan St, USC
Offensive MVP: Crist 3300 yards, 63% completion, 30 tds, 10 int
Defensive MVP: Manti
Bowl Game: Fiesta and we lose
Best Tailgating Beer: Stone Brewing Levitation Ale (or this year Widmer X-114 IPA)
Inanimate object most likely to meet its demise: Well if history is a predictor of the future, a remote or a glass beer bottle.

 

[BGIF]

Predict your season vol. II

Overall Record: 12-0
Wins: Duh! All of them.
Losses: N.A.
Toss up: (Stanford's the only close ND win.)
Offensive MVP: The OLine. When they jell, ND scores 40 PPG regardless of who's QB, RB, or WR.
Defensive MVP: Manti Te'o, Consensus All-American
Bowl Game: Irish Over The Tide - Again! (Wake Up The Echoes!)
Best Tailgating Beer: Your's (Bring Guinness, we're going to an Irish game, remember?)
Inanimate object most likely to meet its demise: Rotator cuff says, "Ain't happenin'."

 

[The Gold Helmets]

Overall Record: 10-2
Wins: all except MSU and USC
Losses: see above
Toss up: MSU and USC...yep
Offensive MVP: Michael Floyd
Defensive MVP: Manti Te'o
Bowl Game: Notre Dame over Georgia in a BCS Bowl
Best Tailgating Beer: My two favorite beers - Pabts Blue Ribbon and New Castle Brown Ale
Inanimate object most likely to meet its demise: My television with a shotgun blast if we those to those bastards from Michigan again.

My stone cold lock prediction? Michael Floyd will leave Notre Dame with every meaningful receiving record in Fighting Irish History.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

My stone cold lock prediction? Michael Floyd will leave Notre Dame with every meaningful receiving record in Fighting Irish History.

Where did you find the Brian Kelly picture used in that post? The Te'o picture from that set is one of my all-time favorite ND images. I've always suspected there are others, but haven't been able to find any?

 

[Riddickulous]

Overall Record: 10-3
Wins: USF, Michigan, Pitt, Purdue, AF, USC, Navy, WF, Maryland, BC
Losses: Stanford, Bowl
Toss Up: MSU
Offensive MVP: Michael Floyd
Defensive MVP: Manti Te'o
Bowl Game: Fiesta Bowl
Best Tailgating Beer: Mountain Dew
Inanimate object most likely to meet its demise: The remote

Just thought I'd tell everyone that this isn't my official prediction.

Overall Record: 0-13
Wins: None
Losses: Every game + dignity
Toss Up: None
Offensive MVP: Roby Toma - 12 catches, 25 yards
Defensive MVP: Eilar Hardy - Won't play and experience the shame of being on the nation's worst defense.
Bowl Game: LOLWUT
Best Tailgating Beer: Mountain Dew
Inanimate object most likely to meet its demise: The remote

 

[The Gold Helmets]

Where did you find the Brian Kelly picture used in that post? The Te'o picture from that set is one of my all-time favorite ND images. I've always suspected there are others, but haven't been able to find any?

I have about five pictures that randomly cycle through each time a link is chosen. They may not go with the article necessarily, but I don't want to make a habit of ripping off too many photos. Ha!

Check out this link and you will find all of your answers. This guy does stuff all the time and takes requests.... Manti Teo uses that picture as his background on his twitter page!

 

[Black Irish]

Record: 9-4
Wins: 9 of 'em
Losses: 1 of the Mich teams, 1 military even though we shouldn't, Maryland just because it's the only game I'll probably go to, and Stanford because Luck will be as good as advertised only against ND
Toss up: USC & Navy
Offensive MVP: M. Floyd, especially if it's open bar after setting a new record
Defensive MVP: Te'o
Bowl Game: Hopefully something that's traded on the commodity exchange
Best Tailgating Beer: Don't like beer, either Powers or Red Breast for this black Irishman
Inanimate object most likely to meet its demise: Hoping not my vocal cords from screaming about the defense leaving the short pass lanes wide freakin' open

 

[Bogtrotter07]

I have little to say after reading through this thread, except many of you have medical problems. Do you know how many posters listed body parts as inanimate objects?

No, wait a minute. I can say this. Notre Dame will field a top ten defense; and an offense that no team can prepare for, because they will not know what beast they face till after kickoff. Special teams will be the biggest surprise as they become superior units, and everyone marvles at what a huge difference that makes. The only arguements left for the end of the season are if either "stifling" or "cripling" is the best adjective for the defense, and if the pffense can find another way, (new play, or player combination) to score.

 

[Old Man Mike]

I'm not a big fan of predictions if they are supposed to be anything like serious. But, if BGIF can make one, then so will I. But not without a preface.

We have a O-line which should be great and which the staff thinks is able to play championship football. Plus, since they are nearly all starters, they've proved it. Our Tight End situation IS great, period. Mike Floyd is great. Theo Riddick is At Least very good. TJ and company are at least good. The whole front end of what we roll out there looks like something that any coach in D-1 would want. Cierre...good. Maybe great, but all he has to be is good. The fuller play book will give him many more wide-open space opportunities. Dayne...good. "When he's hot, he's hot". There is every reason to suspect that if we get off well, he'll settle down to a state of great confidence. So, unless I'm being mistreated by the vagaries of Fate and the Cosmos, this team should average over 30 points per game. Maestro Kelly has the Ammo.

There is no way to see our defense except elite. All measureables made on our last four games indicate that...and the "gang's all here". [except, really, for Brian Smith as a prime ingredient]. Defenses-of-success not only improve but get Pride that they are a$$kickers and don't want to give up a first down let alone a touchdown. And the newcomers: Coach goes slow on the praise, but My Lord! Again, unless this is a cruel trick of the Cosmos, this defense will be a mauler.

And we have terrific kickers.

30+points per game, nationally elite defense, terrific kicking game... how do we NOT win?? Unless people regress or some really bad luck happens with injuries, we should not only win every game, but control most of them even against "good" opponents. Of course sh!t happens. So, I'll climb back down [a little only] from the Green Soapbox and say:

11-1 losing close to somebody, not necessarily Stanford.
Toss-ups are only those games where Dayne is off, we turn the ball over, or we're nursing some key injury.
O-MVP: whoever the QB is [even though it should be Big Mike who will get double-teamed all year].
D-MVP: Manti will get it, and applause to that, but it will really be Harrison Smith for organizing the D every play and stopping the home-runs.
Big bowl game but I don't understand the system well enough to predict. If we're 11-1, we might miss the NC spot, but then will play the next most powerful team because that bowl will want the TV revenues. If Bama and Oklahoma survive and are in there, we probably get a less-hyped undefeated like VT or FSU, or Boise, or WI or .... whomever.

I don't tailgate nor break things. Being north of 70 slows you down a lot. Plus, I'll be watching with my 95 year-old Mom. She'll be drinking wine and "expressing herself" without being able to throw anything either.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

I don't tailgate nor break things. Being north of 70 slows you down a lot. Plus, I'll be watching with my 95 year-old Mom. She'll be drinking wine and "expressing herself" without being able to throw anything either.

That may be the funniest thing I have read lately, except an anal retentive rules list.

 

[NDinL.A.]

That may be the funniest thing I have read lately, except an anal retentive rules list. I can relate to the mom thing.

For the life of me I'll never understand why some people just can't get a grip. I tried to warn you. You went off on a dude for asking a simple question, and basically destroyed a thread, and now you're going to go around bagging on the site on different threads? Go ahead and call me any name in the book you want, and PM all the guys you want about me, but you're not going to ruin this site for the hundreds and hundreds of true Irish fans that enjoy this site. Enjoy your short vacation dude, and hopefully when you come back you'll do better. And if you hate the fact that there are rules and you can't just rip other Irish fans for absolutely no reason, there are plenty of other options out there that will probably suit your style much better...

 

[Old Man Mike]

It is one of the greatest enigmas and blessings to me that she still really loves football at age 95. Notre Dame's a far #1 for her, but she likes a bunch of other teams too. When we win her smile makes me think, Lord, why can't we go undefeated just this once for her??

 

[koonja]

I'm not a big fan of predictions if they are supposed to be
There is no way to see our defense except elite. All measureables made on our last four games indicate that...and the "gang's all here". [except, really, for Brian Smith as a prime ingredient]. Defenses-of-success not only improve but get Pride that they are a$$kickers and don't want to give up a first down let alone a touchdown. QUOTE]


The only thing that worries me about or D is Walls and the depth/experience Neal/Smith had at LB (I know it's obvious because these were senior starters, but let me elaborate). Walls was a stud of a CB. He has started since his freshman year and ran a 4.39 at pro day. He was loaded with experience, skill, and athleticism last year. I love Gray and I believe in Blanton, BUT, I liked Blanton as the 3rd corner much more than I like our 3rd corner right now (maybe Lo Wood is going to be great, but if I were a betting man, I'd take last year's Blanton over this year's Wood. Time will tell). Since almost all teams are either spread O or run versions of it, the 3rd cornerback might as well be listed as a starter. We COULD be average in this spot. If we're getting spread out like this, who's our 4th CB? I suppose we'll use one of the S (Motta, Slaughter). Again, I'm just being skeptical. I think we'll have a phenomenal D, but I could see some problems against teams going 4-wide.

Having said all of this, our D-line (+Flemming) should make their jobs easier.

 

[Veer option]

Having said all of this, our D-line (+Flemming) should make their jobs easier.

Yes a good pass rush is very helpful to the secondary. The depth at DL and LB, will hopefully give the thinly experienced backups for the secondary plenty of game time experience. They will need it in 2012.

 

[Who'saWildManNow]

I'm not a big fan of predictions if they are supposed to be
There is no way to see our defense except elite. All measureables made on our last four games indicate that...and the "gang's all here". [except, really, for Brian Smith as a prime ingredient]. Defenses-of-success not only improve but get Pride that they are a$$kickers and don't want to give up a first down let alone a touchdown. QUOTE]


The only thing that worries me about or D is Walls and the depth/experience Neal/Smith had at LB (I know it's obvious because these were senior starters, but let me elaborate). Walls was a stud of a CB. He has started since his freshman year and ran a 4.39 at pro day. He was loaded with experience, skill, and athleticism last year. I love Gray and I believe in Blanton, BUT, I liked Blanton as the 3rd corner much more than I like our 3rd corner right now (maybe Lo Wood is going to be great, but if I were a betting man, I'd take last year's Blanton over this year's Wood. Time will tell). Since almost all teams are either spread O or run versions of it, the 3rd cornerback might as well be listed as a starter. We COULD be average in this spot. If we're getting spread out like this, who's our 4th CB? I suppose we'll use one of the S (Motta, Slaughter). Again, I'm just being skeptical. I think we'll have a phenomenal D, but I could see some problems against teams going 4-wide.

Having said all of this, our D-line (+Flemming) should make their jobs easier.

Exactly. This line will quell your fears of a 4th corner not being able to succeed. When they go 4 wide they WILL be rushed. That is the major difference in ND defense, we now have some speed, power, depth and experience.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

If we're getting spread out like this, who's our 4th CB? I suppose we'll use one of the S (Motta, Slaughter). Again, I'm just being skeptical. I think we'll have a phenomenal D, but I could see some problems against teams going 4-wide.

Motta and Slaughter will share time at SS, and whoever isn't playing SS will be our Nickelback. Lo Wood would presumably be our Dimeback, but I don't expect to see us running a lot of Dime with our improved pass rush.

 

[Rocket89]

It is one of the greatest enigmas and blessings to me that she still really loves football at age 95. Notre Dame's a far #1 for her, but she likes a bunch of other teams too. When we win her smile makes me think, Lord, why can't we go undefeated just this once for her??

Well she does have the advantage of seeing 10 undefeated seasons in her life time! That's pretty dang impressive!!

 

[woolybug25]

Someone on NDnation wrote this, and I hope they dont mind me sharing, but I thought it was an excellent write up and prediction.

"I'm excited for the season primarily because, for the first time in a while, I think we'll have a very good defense. In particular, I think we'll have a very good running defense.

We've not been able to hold teams under 4 ypc or out of the endzone via the run in a long time.

Good teams do both of those things.

For illustration, consider the following 5 teams, ND, Michigan, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Texas over the past 5 years (2006-2010). I chose each of these for specific reasons, but you can pick any set of teams and come to similar conclusions.

The Cliff Notes Summary:
Teams that win 10+ games limit rushing yards and keep opponents out of the endzone via the rush.

Case by case summary:
Notre Dame
2006 is the only 10+ season. It is also the only season that we limited opponents under 4.0 ypa (3.8). In all other of Weis' seasons (2007-209), ypa was over 4.5. Last season it was 4.02 (more on this later). We also held opponents to 11 rushing TDs in 2006. Every other season was 15+ (20,18,18,15 in sequence from 2007-2010).

Michigan
2006 is also the only 10+ season for UM. As you may recall, their defense was outstanding. The best in this sample, actually. On the ground they gave up a total of 564 yards for the season. That's 1.73 per game and only 5 rushing TDs. From 2007-2010, they gave up 3.76, 3.86, 4.77, 5.11 yards per attempt (in sequence). Rushing TDs is also quite telling. Their sequence goes 5,17,21,20,34. I chose UM because they play many common opponents.

Oklahoma
From 2006-2010, save 2009, OU finished north of 10 wins. In their 3 out of their 4 qualifying seasons, their D kept teams under 4.0. In fact, mostly under 3.5 per attempt, except for 2010 (4.1). 2009 was a very good defensive year, that led to 8 wins. Their Heisman QB also got hurt in the first game, correct?. Interestingly, they allowed teams to score more via rushing when they were winning than in their one down season of 2009 (10,17,19,10,14). No other team shows that profile. So much for the defense in Norman. That's hyperbole. I chose OU because of Stoops.

Bama
The first thing Saban did upon arrival was improve the defense. In 2006 & 2007, they did hold teams under 4.0, but only barely 3.96 in 2006. However, 2008 onward its been 2.65, 2.83, 3.29, in sequence. That would be less than 3.0 when they're contending, winning 12 or 14 games in 2008 & 2009. The rushing TDs in the more traditional SEC is more telling. 5,5,6 rushing TDs allowed the past 3 years. I chose Bama because of St. Nick.

Texas
Texas won 10,10,12,13 games from 2006 thru 2009. In 2010, they won 5. Their yards per attempt show the same: 2.35, 2.86, 3.05, 2.21, 3.48. TX's rushing TDs allowed over that span: 8,12,8,9,21. I chose Texas because (1) they've been mostly up with at least one down season and (2) SEE likes to point out that TX's offense is somewhat similar to Kelly's. I won't debate that second point here; that's his baby to defend, but that is why I chose them.

Statistical Summary
(1) It's too small a sample of teams to draw meaningful statistical summaries.
(2) I've not the time to find and hand enter data, but I did take an hour for this.
(3) Take it for what you will and poke holes in it. It's not worthless spin because I didn't have an agenda.

Yards per attempt and rushing touchdowns allowed both correlated with Total Wins, largely significantly (-.590 and -.629).

The relationship with TDs allowed is even more pronounced when you account for the nested structure of teams across multiple seasons. However, the sample size of 5 teams and 5 seasons is too small to appropriately run inferential statistics.

On the other hand, from a signal-noise perspective, for these 25 seasons (5 teams across 5 years), there were 13 seasons with 10 or more wins. 11/13 of these teams allowed less than 3.5 yards per rush. 2006 ND and 2010 OU allowed more (3.8 & 4.1) but still managed 10 wins. Also, three teams (2009 OU, 2007 Bama, and 2010 TX) allowed fewer than 3.5 yards per attempt but did not manage to win 10+ games. These 5 false-positives and false-negatives aren't bad.

Like the correlations, using TDs allowed is slightly better in this sense too. Using less than 14 TDs allowed as a cut-off, again correctly identifies 11/13 seasons. Bama in 2006 & 2007 allowed 12,14 TDs, but only won 6 & 7 games, respectively (false-positives) OU in 2007 & 2008 allowed 17,19 TDs, but won 11 & 12 games, respectively (false-negatives).

Finally, what this means for ND
In the first 8 games (up to and including Navy), ND allowed 4.26 yards per attempt and gave up 14 touchdowns on the ground.

In the last 5 games (Tulsa, Utah, Army, USC, Miami), ND allowed 3.59 yards per attempt and gave up just one rushing TD to USC after a turnover gave them the ball inside the 5 yardline.

In their 8 wins, ND allowed 2.7 ypa and 5 rushing TDs. In their 5 losses, ND allowed 5.4 ypa and 10 rushing TDs.

Tulsa-Miami isn't Murderer's Row, but if you're looking for something to be excited about, ND hasn't held opponents under 3.5 yards per attempt in a season in awhile (2002?), But, for the last 5 games of last season, they certainly put a very good defense on the field. It's cliche, but it's also supported with data, when you can control the defensive line of scrimmage and limit your opponents' ability to run the football, you will win a lot of games. ND did this in a dominant manner, at times, last season. They return most everyone from that defense. They also add some potentially significant contributors. They also have one more off-season of learning Diaco's defense.

ND should win 10+ games this season. They will for sure if the D plays like they did post-Navy.


*they're not truly predictions"

 

[phork]

Run the ball, stop the run == BCS Champs. There are, of course, exceptions to that rule. But I can guarantee that if you stop the run and are able to run it then you have a very high chance of success.

 

[ACamp1900]

Run the ball, stop the run == BCS Champs. There are, of course, exceptions to that rule. But I can guarantee that if you stop the run and are able to run it then you have a very high chance of success.

that over simplifies it, but like "Defense Wins whatever"... it's mainly true... a team that can control the ball on the ground at an elite level while having a strong front seven is almost always a top ten team... and certainly a legit contender... look at all the great teams with good lines, backs, and front sevens that won it all... but had a very average QB......


many.

 

[Bubba]

Overall Record: 13-0
Wins: All
Losses: None
Toss up: MSU, Stanford
Offensive MVP: Cierre Wood
Defensive MVP: Manti Te'o
Bowl Game: BCS Championship vs. ASU (you heard it here first)
Best Tailgating Beer: Dos Equis Amber w/lime and a couple shots of tequila
Inanimate object most likely to meet its demise: Beer glass? Ottoman? Or, an article of clothing!

Yes, I'm drinking the Kool-Aid (and currently the Smithwicks)!

 

[woolybug25]

Overall Record: 13-0
Wins: All
Losses: None
Toss up: MSU, Stanford
Offensive MVP: Cierre Wood
Defensive MVP: Manti Te'o
Bowl Game: BCS Championship vs. ASU (you heard it here first)
Best Tailgating Beer: Dos Equis Amber w/lime and a couple shots of tequila
Inanimate object most likely to meet its demise: Beer glass? Ottoman? Or, an article of clothing!

Yes, I'm drinking the Kool-Aid (and currently the Smithwicks)!

Reading this post made me smile. I like your style, dude.

 

[GreatGolson]

thanks for posting that Rushing=Wins post. im actually thinking about creating an account on DD, i love some of their posters, although we have much more fun over here. (when Bambi isnt banned)