2024 College Football Playoffs

[Giddyup]

Every other conference besides Big 10 and SEC should break off and start their own playoffs. Get some AFL and NFL action going again! Increase the leverage.

 

[GATTACA!]

I understand the playoff criteria. I'm asking why was it set up that way. Who cares about the Mountain West? They aren't on the same level playing field as the B1G, SEC, etc. Why were they included in the conversation of conferences deemed worthy of auto bids and byes?

See above.

Thanks. I didn't know this.



Thanks. This makes sense. All the more reason to blow this particular system up and rethink it given the new landscape post-reallignment.

Boise gave Oregon everything they could handle. That game was as close as OSU vs Oregon.

Every other conference besides Big 10 and SEC should break off and start their own playoffs. Get some AFL and NFL action going again! Increase the leverage.

Yeah! With blackjack....and hookers!!

 

[stpeteirish]

I look forward to the analysis of how UNLV would handle winter weather in Northern Indiana.

Well they play at Boise tonight that should give you a good idea.

 

[Irish du Nord]

UNLV is #20 in the CFP rankings. Highest-ranked G5 other than Boise. If they win, why wouldn't they be the 12 seed?

I would consider the argument that Army could beat Navy and Tulane and hop UNLV even if UNLV beats BSU. That’s the Penn State argument, right? Quality loss?

 

[FDNYIrish1]

Is that South Bend or Tuscaloosa? Bishop?

 

[wizards8507]

I've been on hold with the ticket office for a half hour and I officially hate the Victory March now.

 

[RDU Irish]

fans do tend to make more out of the weather than the teams do. Good coaches have their teams prepared. But everybody remembers the Miami Sun Bowl game.

Fans don't get heated seats!

Looks like highs in mid 30s, lows mid 20s - almost mild for end of fall finals time. Precipitation will be unknown - lake effect can strike any time.

 

[NDohio]

I understand the playoff criteria. I'm asking why was it set up that way. Who cares about the Mountain West? They aren't on the same level playing field as the B1G, SEC, etc. Why were they included in the conversation of conferences deemed worthy of auto bids and byes?

See above.

Thanks. I didn't know this.



Thanks. This makes sense. All the more reason to blow this particular system up and rethink it given the new landscape post-reallignment.

Good news. It was only a two year contract so it will change after next season.

 

[Wild Bill]

Beating Arizona State and then beating SMU is not easier than having a bye and then beating Indiana or whatever.

None of these teams are horrible horrible and winning two games against any of them is harder than winning one game against any of them.

In its simplest form, winning two games is harder than winning one. So yeah, in that scenario you provide, which is absolutely not going to happen, you'd be right. But if we use a realistic scenario it's far less simple.

If Oregon wins, they're the 1 seed, and basically a lock to play the winner of Ohio State and Tennessee at the Rose Bowl. If Oregon loses, they’re likely dropping to the 5 seed, and would host UNLV, Big 12 champ or Clemson at home. Their second game would probably be the second-lowest-rated conference champion - most likely Boise State, the Big 12 champion, or maybe Clemson, though that’s less likely.

Let's assume they lose and drop to 5, and the rest of the favorites win, their path would likely be Arizona State at home, followed by Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. There’s absolutely no chance Lanning would prefer the 1 seed path over the path at 5 in this scenario or basically any scenario. Oregon would be a double-digit favorite in both games. It would be a nice tune up for the Ducks.

I don't think Penn State feels “privileged” at all to have Oregon this week, even with the chance to secure the 1 seed. They were on a path to get the 5 seed by default, which would have allowed them to sit back, watch Ohio State and Oregon hammer each other, and focus on prepping for Arizona State’s visit to Happy Valley instead.

 

[Rasputin]

Is that South Bend or Tuscaloosa? Bishop?

Bishop: "That's Tuscaloosa. You can see the mural of Touchdown Saban in the distance."

 

[Irish#1]

 

[RDU Irish]

Confucius level stuff here.

 

[GATTACA!]

So what should we actually be rooting for?

Army over Tulane by a lot
UNLV over Boise barely? Or are we better off having Boise win?
ISU v ASU doesn't matter
Texas over Georgia
Oregon over PSU by a million
Clemson over SMU close?

 

[Giddyup]

You just get your pom poms out for ND this week. The rest doesn’t really matter the criteria and value of these C games are so vague.

 

[wizards8507]

I think this is the pecking order of playoff-eligible teams that captures every "what-if" scenario. Tell me where I went wrong. I'm least certain what the committee will do with Notre Dame / Penn State / Ohio State in the event of a Penn State loss. First section is potential first-round byes, second section are the candidates for the first-round games, bottom section has no chance no matter what else happens. The idea is that you would just move down the list in order, crossing out rows as they're eliminated. For example, if Boise State wins the Mountain West you would cross out rows 7, 8, 9, and 22.

 

[RDU Irish]

So what should we actually be rooting for?

Army over Tulane by a lot
UNLV over Boise barely? Or are we better off having Boise win?
ISU v ASU doesn't matter
Texas over Georgia
Oregon over PSU by a million
Clemson over SMU close?

Key for us seems to be PSU and UGA losing - hopefully solidly curb stomped to cause a double take on if they even belong. Oregon or Texas probably secure that #5 spot in a loss.

I'd think ASU needs SMU or Boise State to lose to get a bye but I don't think it really matters for our position. Only way I see Bama dropping out is a hard fought Clemson win forcing two ACC teams into the mix.

 

[wizards8507]

Key for us seems to be PSU and UGA losing - hopefully solidly curb stomped to cause a double take on if they even belong. Oregon or Texas probably secure that #5 spot in a loss.

I think we want them to both win or both lose.

Texas and Oregon both win, I think we're #5 against ASU/ISU/UNLV.

Penn State and UGA both win, I think we're #7 against Indiana.

Texas and Oregon split, then I think we're #6 against Alabama.

 

[stlnd01]

I think we want them to both win or both lose.

Texas and Oregon both win, I think we're #5 against ASU/ISU/UNLV.

Penn State and UGA both win, I think we're #7 against Indiana.

Texas and Oregon split, then I think we're #6 against Alabama.

This is, of course, both the least favorable outcome for us, and the most likely to happen (Oregon beating Penn State but Georgia beating Texas).

 

[stlnd01]

Futher evidence that the conference championship games are useless: You can buy tickets to the Big Ten game on Stubhub right now for less than $20.

 

[wizards8507]

Futher evidence that the conference championship games are useless: You can buy tickets to the Big Ten game on Stubhub right now for less than $20.

Counter-point... It's not that championship games are useless, it's that it's really effing stupid to have a team from the Pacific Northwest in the Big 10.

 

[calvegas04]

If UNLV beats Bosie St tonight then they have no issue playing in cold weather

 

[Blazers46]

I’m curious if someone like Alabama doesn’t come a week early to just practice in the elements. Rent out Rice Field in Elkhart or something.

 

[GATTACA!]

I think it’s morso all the OSU fans that assumed they’d be in trying to offload their tickets.

 

[Pete]

 

[bumpdaddy]

I think the main scenario we want is for both PSU and SMU to lose. That would force the committee to either play it straight and make both teams drop in the rankings but still remain in the playoffs, meaning SMU would be the last team in and Bama would be out, or show their huge unfair bias by not changing PSU's ranking at all, keeping them seeded ahead of us, while dropping SMU completely out of the playoffs just to keep Bama in.

If the committee tried to do the latter they'd claim that PSU lost to the #1 team while SMU lost to #17, but that would be total horseshit since what they would actually have to justify is why one team got punished for playing in their CCG while the other team didn't. They would create a shitstorm if they did that and I would love for them to be put in that position.

 

[ACamp1900]

I’ll say it again,… can we PLEASE, for the love of all things good, PLEASE get one big post season game against a lesser opponent. Every other major program has gotten at least one in my adult life, most have had multiple. ND never gets that game and beyond fucking time.

 

[Wild Bill]

If Penn State and Georgia both win, I think the committee keeps Notre Dame at 6 and drops Texas to 7 to set up a first-round Notre Dame vs. Alabama matchup. That’s the game they want, and it’s easy to justify placing a one-loss Notre Dame ahead of a two-loss Texas.

The only obstacle to this scenario is that a 7 seed Texas would likely play 2 seed Georgia in the second round. The committee might want to avoid a rematch from SECCG, especially if the alternative is texas v bam in the first round, which would be a huge draw as well. I really don't know how they can avoid it - would be a tough sell to bump Georgia over Penn State if they both win, and no chance they give SMU the 2 seed over Georgia. That's just too obvious.

If Texas and Oregon both win, the committee has a real chance to demonstrate its commitment to fairness for conferences outside the SEC and Big Ten. They will bump the Big 12 champion over a three-loss Alabama. Then, they'll trot out that Shrek-looking asshole from Michigan to deliver some nonsensical justification for their decision.

Most fans may disagree, but I’d take the 5 against Alabama over the 7 against Indiana. Sure, Alabama is the tougher opponent, but at some point, this team needs to drop their balls and beat 'em.

The 7 seed scenario - Indiana at home and then Georgia in Atlanta - would be awful IMO. Yes, Indiana is the weaker team and ND should coast, but it’s such a shit game compared to a game against bama. And after that, you’d have to face Georgia in what’s essentially a home game for them.

Alabama could absolutely come to South Bend, beat Notre Dame, and make a run of their own. But I’m willing to take that risk given the potential reward. If ND plays to their potential and bama struggles to stop the run and plays poorly on the road like they have several times this year, ND could put absoute ass beating on them. A win like that could spark a deep playoff run and may change the trajectory of the program. I’ll take that chance every time.

 

[wizards8507]

If Penn State and Georgia both win, I think the committee keeps Notre Dame at 6 and drops Texas to 7 to set up a first-round Notre Dame vs. Alabama matchup. That’s the game they want

I think it would be more valuable to have Notre Dame and Alabama *both* in the Quarterfinal than the single-game value of matching them up in the first round.

 

[Wild Bill]

I’ll say it again,… can we PLEASE, for the love of all things good, PLEASE get one big post season game against a lesser opponent. Every other major program has gotten at least one in my adult life, most have had multiple. ND never gets that game and beyond fucking time.

I'm with you to a point - as noted above, I would take bama from the 5 seed over a 7 seed against a shit team followed by SEC champ in Atlanta. That said, if they somehow pull a 5 seed with an easier path, even better.

ND had a shot at a weaker opponent a few years ago in the Fiesta against Okie State. I know it's not a playoff game but it's a major bowl against a team they should have beaten...and they shit their pants.

 

[Wild Bill]

I think it would be more valuable to have Notre Dame and Alabama *both* in the Quarterfinal than the single-game value of matching them up in the first round.

Good point. They could match them up with Penn State, draw big numbers and bama would probably be favored to win. I just feel like they want ND vs bama and Lax confirmed that assuming his source isn't full of shit.