'23 FL DE Keon Keeley (Prodigal Son)

[arahop]

I wou

I'm assuming the "322" is the team recruiting ranking, so if it isn't, please ignore the following. To be honest, I'm not sure where that number comes form.

The "big dogs" right now seem to be Bama, UGA, and OSU. The last five years of Kelly's full recruiting seasons (2016-2020), they averaged the below points:

Bama: 308.72
UGA: 305.67
OSU: 294.89
Average: 303.09

While ND averaged 255.89, a full 47.2 points below the "big dogs".

Last year, the class remained in tact mostly because of Freeman. We can't give him full credit seeing as Kelly handled most of it. That class ended up at 269.05. The big three were averaged at 314.62. Still pretty far behind at 45.57 points.

This year's class is already at 285.56. The average for the big three right now is 282.27 (which will grow, for sure). If we get the guys we feel like we lead for it'll grow to probably around 300. It'll be about the same if we lose Bowen and Keeley.

So to say we haven't closed the gap on the big three would mean those three, at minimum, would need to average 331.13 (which is us staying at 285.56 and then adding the gap of 45.57 points). How many teams have ever had a class larger than 331.13? One. TAMU last year.

We're closing the gap. Which you noted. However, I think we're closing it more than you are giving Freeman credit for.

I would give Freeman full credit because the talent was brought in on defense in last years class. I also can't think of a head coach bolting days before signing day and keeping almost the entire class together. Freeman gets way more credit than Kelly without question.

 

[TorontoGold]

The issue is some mistook it as me comparing the two programs (ND vs KSU). NOBODY thinks there's a comparison. But when Bama beats you by 40 on the field, it looks sus to say we have an overwhelming talent advantage over teams that we lose to like Ok State. Now, when looking at how many guys we send to the NFL vs say a KSU, it does speak volumes. It also speaks volumes about the coaches at those schools that are consistently competitive with and beat ND. Perhaps BK isn't as great of a coach as some think. If Bama, Clemson, and Ohio State can consistently wipe the field with the likes of ND, it doesn't look good, particularly when you look at all the major upsets BK endured during the 12 or whatever years he was at ND.

Respectfully, what the fuck are you arguing? Like, what is the point you're trying to make? Ok, sure, yes the recruiting has been behind the top 3 as many have noted. Freeman is doing something new right now, so being the I'M a FaCtS gUy shtick is so annoying. Filling your pants because of what happened in the past is not the same as what's happening now since there has been so many changes in recruiting strategy from the prior admin.

The evitable sequence will be the mention of the BCR ratio, in which someone will bring up that ND is closing that gap, and then you will mention the prior losses in the playoffs, the response will be that Clemson won it with a ratio around what ND has now, you will mention it doesn't matter because it depends on what happens in the OSU game, the argument will end because that game has yet to be played.

 

[du Lac]

Respectfully, what the fuck are you arguing? Like, what is the point you're trying to make? Ok, sure, yes the recruiting has been behind the top 3 as many have noted. Freeman is doing something new right now, so being the I'M a FaCtS gUy shtick is so annoying. Filling your pants because of what happened in the past is not the same as what's happening now since there has been so many changes in recruiting strategy from the prior admin.

The evitable sequence will be the mention of the BCR ratio, in which someone will bring up that ND is closing that gap, and then you will mention the prior losses in the playoffs, the response will be that Clemson won it with a ratio around what ND has now, you will mention it doesn't matter because it depends on what happens in the OSU game, the argument will end because that game has yet to be played.

The post that set everyone off clearly stated that I think MF is going to close the gap. There were some that flew off the handle bc I compared the gap to Bama in recruiting to ND vs KSU. I was off by 40.

 

[TorontoGold]

The post that set everyone off clearly stated that I think MF is going to close the gap. There were some that flew off the handle bc I compared the gap to Bama in recruiting to ND vs KSU. I was off by 40.

I mean, making posts like the below highlights my point about arguing a point everyone has moved on from. Should we post in every thread that we should be skeptical of defensive recruiting because Weis didn't do a great job of it? Besides the point, Kelly had a crazy streak of beating unranked teams so.....it's not even like the point of "frequently losing games" to teams like South Florida is even a salient point. You can see how that weakens the contrarian devils advocate position you want to take.

Dale had a good response. I would love to know why if we are 4x's more talented than KSU and only 2x's less talented than Bama, we have a long history of barely beating teams like FSU and Toledo, while also frequently losing games during the Kelly era like South Florida, Navy, getting demolished by Miami, etc. But, any time we play Bama, Ohio State, Clemson (when they were healthy) we get absolutely demolished.

 

[Dale]

The post that set everyone off clearly stated that I think MF is going to close the gap. There were some that flew off the handle bc I compared the gap to Bama in recruiting to ND vs KSU. I was off by 40.

No the issue is to be honest it was another knee jerk grandiose statement and then quickly tried back it up with recruiting rankings based off “well this minus this equals this” so my point was fact. You said ND doesn’t quite get their place in the CFB world and “some are 5 star programs. Some are 3 star programs. ND seems to be a 4 star program until proven otherwise.” Reality is there is no such thing as a 5 star program. A much truer statement that I doubt gets the same push back is Alabama is a 4+ star program, ND is a 4 star program clearly trending up. There is a tangible gap still, but it is no comparison to where we sit and ****ing Kansas State.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Closing the gap ranking wise is one thing. Closing the gap and hitting the needs of each position group is entirely different. Miss on a position group a couple of years in a row and that gap that once seemed to be closing is now growing exponentially. Maybe that is what kept BK from taking the next step.

 

[SoIll]

We flipped Edwards with, like, a phone call. If - and it remains a sizable if - Bama flips Keeley, it took them months, multiple visits, Saban visiting the kid's high school, etc. It is not the same thing at all. And that speaks to the relative recruiting prowess of the three programs.

Then we should of flipped Novasad and Minchey?

 

[Dale]

Closing the gap ranking wise is one thing. Closing the gap and hitting the needs of each position group is entirely different. Miss on a position group a couple of years in a row and that gap that once seemed to be closing is now growing exponentially. Maybe that is what kept BK from taking the next step.

Good point. If ND broke down by position we all already know the result of the Lyght era CB recruiting or Del era WR recruiting and clearly QB.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

Dale had a good response. I would love to know why if we are 4x's more talented than KSU and only 2x's less talented than Bama, we have a long history of barely beating teams like FSU and Toledo, while also frequently losing games during the Kelly era like South Florida, Navy, getting demolished by Miami, etc. But, any time we play Bama, Ohio State, Clemson (when they were healthy) we get absolutely demolished.

WE are no where near being KSU. It was dumb.

 

[du Lac]

I mean, making posts like the below highlights my point about arguing a point everyone has moved on from. Should we post in every thread that we should be skeptical of defensive recruiting because Weis didn't do a great job of it? Besides the point, Kelly had a crazy streak of beating unranked teams so.....it's not even like the point of "frequently losing games" to teams like South Florida is even a salient point. You can see how that weakens the contrarian devils advocate position you want to take.

Not likely considering Weis was fired 13 years ago. Also, MF hasn't yet signed a class. It seems premature not to discuss the potential gap closing potential and anoint him as the gap closer. He's doing well, so don't take that for what it's not. I think it was completely salient in the context of Nick Saban also having a streak of beating unranked teams. More salient is that he doesn't barely beat them. In the setting of determining whether that gap is closing, it seems reasonable to look at how we do head to head, how we've performed in big games, and how we beat unranked teams.

WE are no where near being KSU. It was dumb.

Literally nobody said we were.

 

[PutuporShutup]

Good point. If ND broke down by position we all already know the result of the Lyght era CB recruiting or Del era WR recruiting and clearly QB.

This. For the most part the most athletic people in college football play corner and WR (of course there are exceptions). We just started getting the athletes at corner and although our WR class this year is good, it isn't the most athletic group compared to their rankings.

Tobias and Styles are top level athletes, just need a depth chart of them.

 

[NDohio]

Not likely considering Weis was fired 13 years ago. Also, MF hasn't yet signed a class. It seems premature not to discuss the potential gap closing potential and anoint him as the gap closer. He's doing well, so don't take that for what it's not. I think it was completely salient in the context of Nick Saban also having a streak of beating unranked teams. More salient is that he doesn't barely beat them. In the setting of determining whether that gap is closing, it seems reasonable to look at how we do head to head, how we've performed in big games, and how we beat unranked teams.

Literally nobody said we were.

Host Texas A&M shocked Alabama on Saturday night, beating the top-ranked Crimson Tide 41-38 thanks to a walk-off field goal by Seth Small.

The Aggies' win broke Alabama's streak of 100 consecutive wins against unranked opponents, the longest streak in the AP poll era. The Crimson Tide came into Saturday having won 19 straight games.

Unranked Texas A&M shocks No. 1 Alabama, snaps 100-game streak

Texas A&M's win broke Alabama's streak of 100 consecutive victories against unranked opponents.

www.espn.com

 

[du Lac]

Unranked Texas A&M shocks No. 1 Alabama, snaps 100-game streak

Texas A&M's win broke Alabama's streak of 100 consecutive victories against unranked opponents.

www.espn.com

Nick Saban Calls Alabama’s 2021 Season a ‘Rebuilding Year’ - Sports Illustrated

The comments come after the Crimson Tide went 12–1 in the regular season and won the SEC championship game.

www.si.com

 

[TorontoGold]

Not likely considering Weis was fired 13 years ago. Also, MF hasn't yet signed a class. It seems premature not to discuss the potential gap closing potential and anoint him as the gap closer. He's doing well, so don't take that for what it's not. I think it was completely salient in the context of Nick Saban also having a streak of beating unranked teams. More salient is that he doesn't barely beat them. In the setting of determining whether that gap is closing, it seems reasonable to look at how we do head to head, how we've performed in big games, and how we beat unranked teams.

Literally nobody said we were.

South Florida was what 11 years ago? So I guess you would disagree with what you wrote previously?

Analyzing MF through the same worries that we had with BK is wrong. Should we have doubts about CB recruiting because BK f'd up the Thomas Graham recruitment? Or that because of the George Karlaftis situation we should lose faith in how MF is going to recruit defensive line?

You could take the contrarian position better if you used examples of how MF recruited at Cincinnati and any misses or evaluations he got wrong there. That would be more applicable than comparing him to a guy who as a recruiter (remember this is a 2023 recruit thread) is almost completely different.

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

Me: Let's check out the Keely thread.

 

[du Lac]

South Florida was what 11 years ago? So I guess you would disagree with what you wrote previously?

Analyzing MF through the same worries that we had with BK is wrong. Should we have doubts about CB recruiting because BK f'd up the Thomas Graham recruitment? Or that because of the George Karlaftis situation we should lose faith in how MF is going to recruit defensive line?

You could take the contrarian position better if you used examples of how MF recruited at Cincinnati and any misses or evaluations he got wrong there. That would be more applicable than comparing him to a guy who as a recruiter (remember this is a 2023 recruit thread) is almost completely different.

Let's not forget that we lost to Michigan 47-14 a couple years ago. There is no evidence yet to say MF is closing the gap with Bama. It's perceived based on "commitments". Sign them and we are in the right direction. Is he a far better recruiter than BK? I think so. Do I think he will close the gap more than BK? Yes, I do. Even if we lose Keeley and Bowen, we should still finish about as well as BK did last year with 270-280. Back to back that is the best classes I can remember. Does that mean we closed the gap? I guess we will see how it plays out on the field. At the end of the day, all that will matter for MF is wins vs losses.
.

 

[stlnd01]

Then we should of flipped Novasad and Minchey?

Let's see what happens but I'd bet we do flip Minchey.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

Not likely considering Weis was fired 13 years ago. Also, MF hasn't yet signed a class. It seems premature not to discuss the potential gap closing potential and anoint him as the gap closer. He's doing well, so don't take that for what it's not. I think it was completely salient in the context of Nick Saban also having a streak of beating unranked teams. More salient is that he doesn't barely beat them. In the setting of determining whether that gap is closing, it seems reasonable to look at how we do head to head, how we've performed in big games, and how we beat unranked teams.

Literally nobody said we were.

You literally did.

 

[Irish#1]

 

[du Lac]

You literally did.

False. I compared Bama vs ND with ND vs KSU. That's very different. With due respect, please go back and read instead of assuming you know what you're talking about.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

False. I compared Bama vs ND with ND vs KSU. That's very different. With due respect, please go back and read instead of assuming you know what you're talking about.

I’m convinced you are Rian Johnson.

 

[NorthDakota]

I’m convinced you are Rian Johnson.

I don't trust people with normal names that are spelt (spelled?) incorrectly.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

I don't trust people with normal names that are spelt (spelled?) incorrectly.

It’s clear to me he is trying to subvert our expectations.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

Quick update for those who are coming to the thread and see 5 pages of nonsense:

Keeley has not flipped, as of now he is still committed, pretty quiet on all fronts.

Aside from that, this thread has gone off the rails lol

 

[du Lac]

Let's see what happens but I'd bet we do flip Minchey.

Why?

 

[TorontoGold]

Let's not forget that we lost to Michigan 47-14 a couple years ago. There is no evidence yet to say MF is closing the gap with Bama. It's perceived based on "commitments". Sign them and we are in the right direction. Is he a far better recruiter than BK? I think so. Do I think he will close the gap more than BK? Yes, I do. Even if we lose Keeley and Bowen, we should still finish about as well as BK did last year with 270-280. Back to back that is the best classes I can remember. Does that mean we closed the gap? I guess we will see how it plays out on the field. At the end of the day, all that will matter for MF is wins vs losses.
.

Nobody is forgetting? This notion of "these plebs are so dumb I am going to remind them of losses from 2019" is so tired. We're collectively sitting on an internet forum discussing college football on August 4th. I think everyone here has an acute knowledge of the past shortfalls.

The evidence is quite evident, actually. Go look at Limar's interview with Sampson, clearly shows that MF was better than BK. He is recruiting at a higher clip that BK ever did, unless Saban improves the recruiting at Bama by the same delta that MF does at ND....then yes MF is closing the gap.

If all of the evidence is pointing towards MF recruiting at a top 5 rate, do you think an intelligent position is to say "who knows"? With the available data/information we have, MF is looking to close the gap. .

 

[stlnd01]

Quick update for those who are coming to the thread and see 5 pages of nonsense:

Keeley has not flipped, as of now he is still committed, pretty quiet on all fronts.

Aside from that, this thread has gone off the rails lol

What again is the threshold for "number of posts at which you know he's not coming here?" The Dante thread blew past it and now we need somewhere new to vent our insecurities.

 

[du Lac]

Nobody is forgetting? This notion of "these plebs are so dumb I am going to remind them of losses from 2019" is so tired. We're collectively sitting on an internet forum discussing college football on August 4th. I think everyone here has an acute knowledge of the past shortfalls.

The evidence is quite evident, actually. Go look at Limar's interview with Sampson, clearly shows that MF was better than BK. He is recruiting at a higher clip that BK ever did, unless Saban improves the recruiting at Bama by the same delta that MF does at ND....then yes MF is closing the gap.

If all of the evidence is pointing towards MF recruiting at a top 5 rate, do you think an intelligent position is to say "who knows"? With the available data/information we have, MF is looking to close the gap. .

"Looking" to close the gap. I agree.

 

[stlnd01]

Why?

Basically because on the merits he'd be nuts to pick Pitt over Notre Dame, and unlike Novosad and Baylor he's not local. If it's not us it'll be one of the other top-tier schools that have started talking to him. Minchey's not playing college football for Pittsburgh.

 

[du Lac]

Basically because on the merits he'd be nuts to pick Pitt over Notre Dame, and unlike Novosad and Baylor he's not local. If it's not us it'll be one of the other top-tier schools that have started talking to him. Minchey's not playing college football for Pittsburgh.

I'd be ecstatic with Minchey. I think Rees will land Jaxon Smolik. Gap closer.