Russia Invades Ukraine

[Whiskeyjack]

2) At what point do we hold the russian people responsible and accountable? If putin is the unhinged dictator he's now being painted as, then we/nato/the russian people really should take him out (yeah, yeah, I understand the "devil you know" theory, but that is now out the window if you're supposedly a crazy man). Again, we're not dealing with kim jong un or saddam hussein where the people are mired in abject poverty and oppression. If the russian people aren't willing to change their country's self-selected lot in life, then I'm not sure nato can.

3) What's the line in the sand putin can't cross? I mean's it certainly not invading Ukraine. We knew this was coming for months, and weren't even able to get putin to 2nd guess that. Will current sanctions make him think twice about invading/annexing the next country? Maybe. But current sanctions will also give him time to regroup and reorganize.

Regarding (2), Russians rank 32nd worldwide in median income. So while they're not as poor as the average Arab living in a petrol-state, they're certainly not wealthy by European standards. And public opinion in Russia re Putin is divided between those who support him because he's the only option they're ever offered, and those who are largely apathetic, having despaired of ever improving their own situation. It's not like Russia is famous for its open and fair elections. Point being, punishing the average Russian for Putin's imperial aspirations would likely be counter-productive.

Regarding (3), invading a NATO state is an obvious line in the sand. Putin apparently wants to reconstitute the Russian empire, but its borders varied hugely over the years. Some of the countries in his near abroad (like Ukraine) he can take by force (but can he hold them thereafter?) Others (like Belarus) will willingly join him. Others still (like Azerbijan) can be pressured into giving him the influence he wants via other means. Hopefully NATO has a clear idea of what he's after and how to contain him.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

Its just asking to be destroyed

 

[ab2cmiller]

So was the 40 mile long convoy just an intimidation tactic in hopes of gaining a negotiation advantage?

 

[Rack Em]

So was the 40 mile long convoy just an intimidation tactic in hopes of gaining a negotiation advantage?

Russian Pride Parade

 

[PerthDomer]

Some Russian troops are surrendering or sabotaging vehicles rather than fighting, a Pentagon official says. (Published 2022)

A significant number of the Russian troops are young conscripts who are poorly trained and ill-prepared for the all-out assault, a senior official said.

www.nytimes.com

Just let it sit there. Half of them will defect and it chews up resources.

 

[Irish#1]

Since the Cold War began, these are the unwritten rules of MAD:

• Nuclear-armed powers do not engage in direct military operations against each other.
• Article 5 of NATO extends the protection that rule affords its 3 nuclear-armed members (US, UK and France) to its other 27 members.
• A nuclear-armed power can war directly against the client state of another nuclear-armed power, or indirectly by providing materiel, resources, diplomatic support, etc.

Russia's war against Ukraine doesn't violate any of those rules. But any NATO country taking direct military action to stop it would.

That doesn't mean that Russia can do whatever it wants. But when it comes to our military options, it really does boil down to "Are we willing to risk the end of the world to stop this by force?" And the answer has to be no here. Short of finding a way to preemptively disarm Russia's ICBMs, the risks involved far outweigh the benefits.

I suspect whether they are written or unwritten Putin doesn't care.

 

[HouseofPain]

Hitler didn't have nukes, and western Europe wasn't already committed to the common defense through NATO. You really need to let go of the Nazi analogies. It's a truly terrible comparison.

There's a world of difference between blockading a Soviet client state and taking direct military action against a nuclear-armed Russia.

Whiskey sorry but this is candy ass chicken crap spewing out of your pie hole.
How is this not a comparison with Russia and Nazi Germany? It is the same thing! The West is so afraid of starting something up that they dont dare want to stand up to evil. So they let people die and it wont stop Putin from his goals just like it didnt stop Hitler from his.
A nuclear armed Russia. Russia has been nuke armed for fifty years now. So what? Just roll over and let them do whatever they want until they plant their flag in your backyard? Im sure then you will man all the way up right?
Putin will not stop with Ukraine. His full intention is reclaiming the USSR and that means several NATO states.
But I guess it is okay to let 4.1 million people die and lose everything just as long as they dont knock on NATOs steps right? What happens then? Will you still be in the fetal position saying dont tempt a nuclear-armed Russia then too?

 

[Irish#1]

Some Russian troops are surrendering or sabotaging vehicles rather than fighting, a Pentagon official says. (Published 2022)

A significant number of the Russian troops are young conscripts who are poorly trained and ill-prepared for the all-out assault, a senior official said.

www.nytimes.com

Just let it sit there. Half of them will defect and it chews up resources.

They're sitting ducks. I'm surprised Ukraine hasn't bombed the crap out of it.

 

[Irish#1]

From NBC. Looks like the forgot to stop at the Qwiky Mart to top off and grab some Doritos.

A Russian military convoy closing in on Kyiv from the north appears to be advancing slowly after facing resistance from Ukrainian fighters and fuel and food shortages, a senior U.S. defense official said Tuesday.

"It is not exactly moving with great speed," the official said. "They continue to be bogged down coming down from the north to get to Kyiv."

Satellite images captured by U.S. firm Maxar Technologies on Monday showed the vast convoy along a highway north of Ivankiv, located about 50 miles northwest of Kyiv. The official said the Russians' laggard pace could be a result of their own self-determined pause in operations, but they are certain to regroup.

"We generally sense that the Russian military movement on Kyiv is stalled at this point," the official said, adding, "That said, there has been in the last six days evidence of a certain risk averse behavior by the Russian military."

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

Whiskey sorry but this is candy ass chicken crap spewing out of your pie hole.
How is this not a comparison with Russia and Nazi Germany? It is the same thing! The West is so afraid of starting something up that they dont dare want to stand up to evil. So they let people die and it wont stop Putin from his goals just like it didnt stop Hitler from his.
A nuclear armed Russia. Russia has been nuke armed for fifty years now. So what? Just roll over and let them do whatever they want until they plant their flag in your backyard? Im sure then you will man all the way up right?
Putin will not stop with Ukraine. His full intention is reclaiming the USSR and that means several NATO states.
But I guess it is okay to let 4.1 million people die and lose everything just as long as they dont knock on NATOs steps right? What happens then? Will you still be in the fetal position saying dont tempt a nuclear-armed Russia then too?

 

[irishnd31]

Yeah..... that should start it.

 

[NorthDakota]

Whiskey sorry but this is candy ass chicken crap spewing out of your pie hole.
How is this not a comparison with Russia and Nazi Germany? It is the same thing! The West is so afraid of starting something up that they dont dare want to stand up to evil. So they let people die and it wont stop Putin from his goals just like it didnt stop Hitler from his.
A nuclear armed Russia. Russia has been nuke armed for fifty years now. So what? Just roll over and let them do whatever they want until they plant their flag in your backyard? Im sure then you will man all the way up right?
Putin will not stop with Ukraine. His full intention is reclaiming the USSR and that means several NATO states.
But I guess it is okay to let 4.1 million people die and lose everything just as long as they dont knock on NATOs steps right? What happens then? Will you still be in the fetal position saying dont tempt a nuclear-armed Russia then too?

4.1 million people are going to die?

 

[Sea Turtle]

Reports on Twitter are saying that the Russian forces are having trouble getting in touch with central command. Also, they are using simple radio frequencies to communicate. Anyone with a good radio can hear them.
Ukrainians also captured two fully loaded thermobaric missle launchers that were abandoned.

 

[Johannes]

They're sitting ducks. I'm surprised Ukraine hasn't bombed the crap out of it.

Respectfully, bomb the crap out of them with what? We don't know much about actual losses, inventory, or state of air fields to this point, but I'd be shocked if the Ukrainians have any air capacity at this point (given the proliferation of Russian air activity in reports over the past two days).

The logistics within Ukraine itself speak to why transferring them planes is not a worthwhile endeavor at this point. They need supplies and human portable equipment, not advanced weapons systems that require a massive infrastructure to maintain, implement, and protect (ie jets).

Ukrainian Air Force - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

Reports on Twitter are saying that the Russian forces are having trouble getting in touch with central command. Also, they are using simple radio frequencies to communicate. Anyone with a good radio can hear them.
Ukrainians also captured two fully loaded thermobaric missle launchers that were abandoned.

Anonymous has already posted and shared their frequencies.

 

[irishog77]

Its just asking to be destroyed

Eh, I'm kind of skeptical of that report. While russia has clearly demonstrated their military is not premier, the levels of incompetency suggested here would be mind-boggling. Like it is a couple of 6 year olds planning and executing this.

 

[HouseofPain]

4.1 million people are going to die?

Would it matter to you if any of those 4.1 million were your family?

 

[NorthDakota]

Would it matter to you if any of those 4.1 million were your family?

I'm curious why anyone thinks 4.1 million people will be dying. Its an oddly specific number.

 

[ab2cmiller]

Would it matter to you if any of those 4.1 million were your family?

You actually made some decent points, but they got lost in chest puffing bluster. I believe you are correct that Putin will not be satisfied stopping with the Ukraine. It appears that he's likely committing war crimes. Obviously 4.1 million people are not going to die. But how many is too many. Is the world OK if he kills a quarter of a million people? One hundred thousand people?

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

Eh, I'm kind of skeptical of that report. While russia has clearly demonstrated their military is not premier, the levels of incompetency suggested here would be mind-boggling. Like it is a couple of 6 year olds planning and executing this.

I'd like to think they have real time intel on this situation. Im apt to believe it after the last 96 hours.

 

[Rack Em]

Reports on Twitter are saying that the Russian forces are having trouble getting in touch with central command. Also, they are using simple radio frequencies to communicate. Anyone with a good radio can hear them.
Ukrainians also captured two fully loaded thermobaric missle launchers that were abandoned.

Putin taking a page out of the Biden Afghanistan Withdrawal playbook.

 

[irishog77]

The communications isn't as big of a deal as it seems. Much of the march to Baghdad was done with little to no communication capabilities. Assaults and convoys were literally launched from Kuwait with a general order, with no/limited/unsecure communication lines to alter, change, or be alerted once begun. These were often 200-400 mile treks.
The discrepancy in U.S. military versus iraq's made much of this possible. While not as vast, russia's superiority versus Ukraine's should work in their favor as well.
The planning prior to the invasion was also a huge advantage for the U.S.

 

[calvegas04]

The communications isn't as big of a deal as it seems. Much of the march to Baghdad was done with little to no communication capabilities. Assaults and convoys were literally launched from Kuwait with a general order, with no/limited/unsecure communication lines to alter, change, or be alerted once begun. These were often 200-400 mile treks.
The discrepancy in U.S. military versus iraq's made much of this possible. While not as vast, russia's superiority versus Ukraine's should work in their favor as well.
The planning prior to the invasion was also a huge advantage for the U.S.

That makes sense when you know your headed into battle. A good amount of these Russians being captured think they are in training still

 

[irishog77]

Regarding (2), Russians rank 32nd worldwide in median income. So while they're not as poor as the average Arab living in a petrol-state, they're certainly not wealthy by European standards. And public opinion in Russia re Putin is divided between those who support him because he's the only option they're ever offered, and those who are largely apathetic, having despaired of ever improving their own situation. It's not like Russia is famous for its open and fair elections. Point being, punishing the average Russian for Putin's imperial aspirations would likely be counter-productive.

Regarding (3), invading a NATO state is an obvious line in the sand. Putin apparently wants to reconstitute the Russian empire, but its borders varied hugely over the years. Some of the countries in his near abroad (like Ukraine) he can take by force (but can he hold them thereafter?) Others (like Belarus) will willingly join him. Others still (like Azerbijan) can be pressured into giving him the influence he wants via other means. Hopefully NATO has a clear idea of what he's after and how to contain him.

I wasn't suggesting the U.S./nato/the world punish the people of russia (although that's often what economic sanctions do). More that the russian people need to be active participants in their own fate, for better or worse.

As to the bolded, my fear is that they do not. At least as of a week ago they did not. Putin has obviously now shown a hand, so perhaps his true intentions should be clearer. But in 20 years, nato has not had an idea of what he's after nor how to contain him.

 

[irishog77]

That makes sense when you know your headed into battle. A good amount of these Russians being captured think they are in training still

For months and months, the entire world knew russia was going into Ukraine, but the russian military did not? Even when they began amassing and staging?

 

[ab2cmiller]

For months and months, the entire world knew russia was going into Ukraine, but the russian military did not? Even when they began amassing and staging?

Seems plausible to me. Who knows what the general public and even the military were being told inside of Russia.

On a side note, I don't think the entire world knew that he was going into Ukraine. There were a lot of "experts" that were claiming all along that it was Putin posturing, trying to get what he wanted by simply amassing troops on the border.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

 

[GATTACA!]

For months and months, the entire world knew russia was going into Ukraine, but the russian military did not? Even when they began amassing and staging?

There are videos of Russian captives calling home telling their loved ones they’ve been captured and their families are shocked when they tell them they’re in Ukraine.

 

[ACamp1900]

Dump it where??? I have room in my accounts if they, like, need room???

 

[greyhammer90]

Not very often you see anything where people are talking about a trillion with a T.