ND's Path to the 2015 Playoffs

[irishfan]

SCUM wins they go to the title game vs Iowa (likely) no?

Yes, but they have to win out until the OSU game to do so....was planning on rooting for them over Indiana this week.

 

[gkIrish]

Why Indiana? If anything, wouldn't Michigan going 10-2 and winning their division over OSU be good for us? Feel like the committee would try and sneak in a 12-1 OSU regardless of a late-season loss.

I guess my thinking is the less impressive OSU looks the better. But I suppose you're right because an undefeated OSU is getting in no matter.

 

[PANDFAN]

BK just said on the Rich Eisen show that he would take his 12 games versus anyone's 13 games......

then rich inserts joke ....."even without michigan on your schedule"....absolute classic...but BK didn't really laugh

being an independent only allows us 12 games

 

[ACamp1900]

How coach AC would have handled it... "Well, having a 30 point win over a BIG also ran should be worth something right??"

 

[beryirish]

David Hale:

Most wins vs FBS teams with current winning record:

Clemson: 6
Alabama: 6
Memphis: 5
Michigan St.: 5
LSU: 4
Notre Dame: 4
Iowa: 4
Utah: 4

 

[beryirish]

BK also said he prefers an 8-team playoff

 

[Cackalacky]

David Hale:

Most wins vs FBS teams with current winning record:

Clemson: 6
Alabama: 6
Memphis: 5
Michigan St.: 5
LSU: 4
Notre Dame: 4
Iowa: 4
Utah: 4

Unfortunately ND will slip down further over the next two weeks. BC and Wake are turrible.

 

[irish4ever]

The Irish COULD have on their resume of beating the PAC champ (Stanford) and AAC champ (Navy/Temple) and a close loss on the road to ACC champ (#1 Clemson) IF it all plays out. That would surely help in the eyes of the committee.

 

[connor_in]

SCUM wins they go to the title game vs Iowa (likely) no?

Yes, but they have to win out until the OSU game to do so....was planning on rooting for them over Indiana this week.

Isn't this only if pOSU beats MSU? If MSU beats pOSU, then all three of MSU, pOSU, and scUM have one loss in conference and (in this scenario) MSU with head to head wins against the other two, puts them into the B1G title game. (...and probably not in contention for the Natty playoff with the ugly loss to the huskers)

 

[Irish Insanity]

Isn't this only if pOSU beats MSU? If MSU beats pOSU, then all three of MSU, pOSU, and scUM have one loss in conference and (in this scenario) MSU with head to head wins against the other two, puts them into the B1G title game. (...and probably not in contention for the Natty playoff with the ugly loss to the huskers)

Correct. UofM winning the B1G is the best thing for us. God I hate to even say that.

 

[irishfan]

Isn't this only if pOSU beats MSU? If MSU beats pOSU, then all three of MSU, pOSU, and scUM have one loss in conference and (in this scenario) MSU with head to head wins against the other two, puts them into the B1G title game. (...and probably not in contention for the Natty playoff with the ugly loss to the huskers)

Yes, Michigan State would win that division if they were to win out. Although then they'd have wins over OSU, Michigan, Oregon, and maybe a 12-1 Iowa to end the year. It would be a tough call between 11-1 ND and 12-1 MSU in that scenario.

 

[connor_in]

Correct. UofM winning the B1G is the best thing for us. God I hate to even say that.

Yes, Michigan State would win that division if they were to win out. Although then they'd have wins over OSU, Michigan, Oregon, and maybe a 12-1 Iowa to end the year. It would be a tough call between 11-1 ND and 12-1 MSU in that scenario.

while true because of two losses, I prefer the MSU winning it because they would still have a bad loss (NEB), 1 good win (pOSU) and no other decent wins (I don't think ORE is a decent win at this point, and not even sure a close game with Iowa would be either), so they shouldn't jump us in the ranking...plus scUM is a loser, & does not get a B1G title (esp in JH 1st yr which the press would go on and on about)...and therefore F*CK MICHIGAN

 

[BobbyMac]

Isn't this only if pOSU beats MSU? If MSU beats pOSU, then all three of MSU, pOSU, and scUM have one loss in conference and (in this scenario) MSU with head to head wins against the other two, puts them into the B1G title game. (...and probably not in contention for the Natty playoff with the ugly loss to the huskers)

The first part is true, MSU beats OSU, they go to the B1G championship game but if they win, they aren't out because of an ugly loss. They might be in because they had the game stolen from them in some committee members' eyes.

 

[irishfan]

while true because of two losses, I prefer the MSU winning it because they would still have a bad loss (NEB), 1 good win (pOSU) and no other decent wins (I don't think ORE is a decent win at this point, and not even sure a close game with Iowa would be either), so they shouldn't jump us in the ranking...plus scUM is a loser, & does not get a B1G title (esp in JH 1st yr which the press would go on and on about)...and therefore F*CK MICHIGAN

In regards to MSU, the committee cares much more about who you beat than who you lost to. MSU lost in a questionable way to Nebraska. Yes, they have the even more questionable win at Michigan. But they'd also end the year with a huge win at OSU and by beating what will most likely be a 12-0 Iowa team. They'd have three wins over ranked teams (two on the road) and would be 12-1 conference champions. They would have a very close argument with ND at 11-1. Probably the only way a B1G team 100% doesn't get over ND in is if it's 11-2 Michigan or Iowa drops a game then wins the Conference Championship.

 

[Luckylucci]

This was posted at BGI and has ND moving past OSU this week.

Playoff Committee Advanced Ranks Model 5.0 - CFB Matrix

 

[woolybug25]

This was posted at BGI and has ND moving past OSU this week.

Playoff Committee Advanced Ranks Model 5.0 - CFB Matrix

That has scUM over Okie State. If that happened, the interwebs would break.

Edit - I should have read the whole thing. Didn't see that they used a modeling tool and then put a "human touch" on it. I actually like the updated one.

1 Clemson
2 Alabama
3 Notre Dame
4 Ohio St
5 LSU
6 Iowa
7 Oklahoma St
8 Florida
9 Baylor
10 Stanford
11 Utah
12 Michigan St
13 TCU
14 Oklahoma
15 North Carolina
16 Michigan
17 Navy
18 Florida St
19 Mississippi St
20 Northwestern
21 UCLA
22 Houston
23 USC
24 Ole Miss
25 Temple

That would give us three top 25 wins and a fourth scheduled in Stanford.

 

[irishfan]

That has scUM over Okie State. If that happened, the interwebs would break.

They re-rank them. That wasn't their final prediction.

 

[irishfan]

This was posted at BGI and has ND moving past OSU this week.

Playoff Committee Advanced Ranks Model 5.0 - CFB Matrix

Thanks for posting. I like how they mention that the committee tends to "prop" higher teams by keeping questionable teams in the top-25. The most glaring example last year IMO was keeping Minnesota at #25 to justify OSU>Baylor in the final rankings.

 

[Luckylucci]

Thanks for posting. I like how they mention that the committee tends to "prop" higher teams by keeping questionable teams in the top-25. The most glaring example last year IMO was keeping Minnesota at #25 to justify OSU>Baylor in the final rankings.

Good call, without looking at last seasons final rankings I couldn't think of one of the top of my head.

 

[Old Man Mike]

The people on ESPNU just did their four-in preferences --- Coach Mike Bilotti [the ex-Oregon guy] and Tom Luginbill put us in their top four, but the other two clowns didn't even have us in their top six. BUT, the comments by the two who had us "in" sounded less theoretical than the two others. The big difference was in the estimation of the BIG12s worth.

Interestingly, none of them seemed to like Alabama against a strong team who could put variable offensive threats on the field. ALL of them really jumped Les Miles' case for stupidly not spreading the field and trusting his QB at least somewhat. ALL of them think that a true offensive team would likely outscore Alabama.

 

[woolybug25]

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-1)

AP ranking: 6; CFP ranking: 5

Why they deserve a spot in the top four: If Notre Dame was the committee's No. 5 team and one of the four teams ahead of the Irish lost convincingly, then that would automatically make the Irish a top-four team, right? Not necessarily, but there is still a good chance Notre Dame hears its name called in the top four Tuesday night after an impressive 42-30 win at Pitt. When the offense clicks the way it did throughout much of Saturday, the Irish look capable of playing with anyone in the country. After some early questions about its schedule, Notre Dame has notched four straight wins over teams with a combined 27-8 record -- and four of those eight total losses being against Notre Dame. What's more: No. 1 Clemson, the only team to beat Notre Dame, beat its last scheduled ranked opponent, Florida State, on Saturday to clinch the ACC Atlantic Division. Additionally, 7-1 Navy, whose only loss is to the Irish, routed previously unbeaten and No. 13 Memphis. All in all, a great weekend for Notre Dame.

Why they won't get it: If the selection committee is really, really high on No. 2 LSU and No. 4 Alabama, then it might not hit the Tigers too hard for losing on the road to the Crimson Tide. Perhaps the two could flip spots, again relegating the Irish to No. 5? No. 14 Oklahoma State's rout of then-No. 8 TCU will certainly earn the Cowboys a giant leap in Tuesday's rankings, although 10 spots would probably be a bit much. For now, though, Notre Dame has to feel good about its chances of being a top-four team . . . at least this Tuesday night.

Chance they make the playoff: 25 percent. Sure, Notre Dame looks like it's in good shape right now, but there is so much football left to be played, and it still has a loss on its résumé. And as long as there are undefeated teams from some Power 5 leagues, it is very likely those teams get in over one-loss Notre Dame. The Irish also have a massive test in their regular-season finale at Stanford, and even if they win that, there is no guarantee that an 11-1 Notre Dame squad gets the nod over another 11-1 or 12-1 Power 5 team. However, if the Cardinal enter that Irish game 10-1-- and then go on to win the Pac-12 title the following week -- a one-loss Notre Dame team would be in prime position to crack the final four. Still, a lot needs to happen in the next month. --Matt Fortuna

The case for every contender for the top four in College Football Playoff Committee rankings

 

[BleedBlueGold]

This was posted at BGI and has ND moving past OSU this week.

Playoff Committee Advanced Ranks Model 5.0 - CFB Matrix

This is awesome. Thanks for posting.

 

[IrishLax]

Just Win, Baby (And You’ll Probably Make The College Football Playoff) | FiveThirtyEight

I really like 538's breakdown, even if their numbers might be a tiny bit wonky in some regards. The crux of the breakdown is that ND has a pretty darn good chance of making the playoffs and a pretty darn good chance of winning out... but they control their own destiny the least. Winning out nets ND a 71% chance of making the playoffs, whereas a lot of other teams can basically play their way in with some certainty. We're going to get a lot more clarity soon... too bad Texas got cheated against Oklahoma State, or we'd have a very simple path to get in.

 

[shalom]

ND's chances of winning out based on those models aren't that great: projections for winning out is around 40% and chances of making the playoffs range around 1/3 to 1/4. I'd think that Stanford would be favored even talking about that one single game, at home after winning 10 straight.

Since the Clemson game it's been assumed that ND would be the first team out, or last team in the playoffs depending on what other conference champs looked like. It's still the case. The only case where ND controlled its destiny is if the ACC eliminated itself via Clemson losing. Otherwise even with ND winning out it was going to be the ultimate bubble team all the way to decision night.

Long said tonight that ND was a pretty solid #4 but that's with an "incomplete" on the Big 12's resume. They have had Baylor at 6 all along ready to move as soon as they can get some clarity in one of these big time games.

Again I think the main thing isn't the playoffs it's that there's very much in front of the kids to play for. This team finishing the regular season 11-1 after what it's been through makes an epic team. A lot of schools could deserve to be in the playoffs including an undefeated Baylor or w/e from the Big 12. But this ND team has been impressive

 

[johnnycando]

ND's chances of winning out based on those models aren't that great: projections for winning out is around 40% and chances of making the playoffs range around 1/3 to 1/4. I'd think that Stanford would be favored even talking about that one single game, at home after winning 10 straight.

Since the Clemson game it's been assumed that ND would be the first team out, or last team in the playoffs depending on what other conference champs looked like. It's still the case. The only case where ND controlled its destiny is if the ACC eliminated itself via Clemson losing. Otherwise even with ND winning out it was going to be the ultimate bubble team all the way to decision night.

Long said tonight that ND was a pretty solid #4 but that's with an "incomplete" on the Big 12's resume. They have had Baylor at 6 all along ready to move as soon as they can get some clarity in one of these big time games.

Again I think the main thing isn't the playoffs it's that there's very much in front of the kids to play for. This team finishing the regular season 11-1 after what it's been through makes an epic team. A lot of schools could deserve to be in the playoffs including an undefeated Baylor or w/e from the Big 12. But this ND team has been impressive

We won't lose our perch without losing bub.

 

[stlnd01]

We won't lose our perch without losing bub.

We could. An undefeated Big 12 champ would jump us in the end.
But we will lose our perch if we lose, and that's the only thing we control.
So win out and root for Navy, Temple, USC, Stanford, Clemson and Big 12 mayhem.

 

[ND NYC]

sucks that Stanford plays last games at home from here on out...while we play one home game this week then its off to boston for a night game, then back to the west coast the following week for Stanford.

the odd years in shamrock series era, post k white 7-5 scheduling scheme seems ND has travels most of any school (in miles), no?

is what it is! (knute would be proud of the coast to coast travelling aspect of nd )

 

[GATTACA!]

What if we started a new tradition of having every season opener played @ Hawaii Then we can have a 13th game every year just like conference champs.

 

[shalom]

We won't lose our perch without losing bub.

Lol that dude's own stats say there's a greater chance of ND getting jumped than not getting jumped, which is what I was reacting to.

For example if you look at Baylor it's not even really a matter of "jump" the Playoff Committee has basically deferred from ranking them in the top 4 for the reason that they don't think Baylor has played anyone that the Committee thinks they can evaluate them against. So they stick them at 6 right outside the playoff waiting their turn. If Baylor beats the Oklahoma teams they will jump ND.

There is also a scenario where Utah could jump ND, although unlikely.

ND has to win but others also have to lose. It's called not controlling your own destiny.

 

[IrishinSyria]

Lol that dude's own stats say there's a greater chance of ND getting jumped than not getting jumped, which is what I was reacting to.

For example if you look at Baylor it's not even really a matter of "jump" the Playoff Committee has basically deferred from ranking them in the top 4 for the reason that they don't think Baylor has played anyone that the Committee thinks they can evaluate them against. So they stick them at 6 right outside the playoff waiting their turn. If Baylor beats the Oklahoma teams they will jump ND.

There is also a scenario where Utah could jump ND, although unlikely.

ND has to win but others also have to lose. It's called not controlling your own destiny.

P. much agree with this. We're not a lock for anything at this point- we might get downgraded for our next two games, especially as the winners of the BigXII's big games pick up quality W's. I'll actually be surprised if we go to Stanford ranked 4 or better.