Herbstreit's Weekly Top 4

[Cackalacky]

I guess this may become a new.thing so here is what he said this week:
Kirk Herbstreit names his Top 4 after week one
OSU
ALABAMA
UCLA
NOTRE DAME

 

[GATTACA!]

 

[ThePiombino]

1st few weeks my top 4 will be VERY fluid based on results & learning more about the teams each wk. 1..OSU 2..Bama 3..UCLA 4..ND
— Kirk Herbstreit (@KirkHerbstreit) September 8, 2015

Sooooo then much like the AP and Coaches polls, this too is completely pointless? Got it.

 

[Irish YJ]

 

[IrishJayhawk]

Sooooo then much like the AP and Coaches polls, this too is completely pointless? Got it.

But he's at least basing it on play on the field. No pre-season ranking.

 

[T Town Tommy]

I saw a lot of uninspired CFB this weekend. I am sure it will get better as the season progresses.

 

[wizards8507]

It's a good sign in terms of perception. We need the world to start mocking TCU and Baylor openly. People realizing that their big problem is strength of schedule and NOT the lack of a conference championship game works in our favor.

 

[dublinirish]

It's a good sign in terms of perception. We need the world to start mocking TCU and Baylor openly. People realizing that their big problem is strength of schedule and NOT the lack of a conference championship game works in our favor.

They have Lamar and Stephen F Austin up next. They have nobody to blame but themselves.

 

[Old Man Mike]

"All" we really need is to beat GaTech, Clemson, and USC. Pretty obvious, but a Notre Dame team in the playoffs means TWO big 5 conference champs NOT in. ACC seems ripe to be one as everyone is already discounting them. Us beating USC and them winning the PAC-12 gets us in regardless --- we cannot lose a game.

Conference champs rule nowadays. If we went undefeated but so did OSU/MSU + UCLA/Oregon + Baylor/TCU, and there was one-loss Alabama/Auburn, then I'll bet we get stiffed. [people are having a guilt holdover for TCU/Baylor from last year]. Funny to hope to beat USC but them to win the PAC-12, but I intuit that this is our best shot.

But ... let's just beat Virginia for now.

 

[wizards8507]

Conference champs rule nowadays. If we went undefeated but so did OSU/MSU + UCLA/Oregon + Baylor/TCU, and there was one-loss Alabama/Auburn, then I'll bet we get stiffed. [people are having a guilt holdover for TCU/Baylor from last year]. Funny to hope to beat USC but them to win the PAC-12, but I intuit that this is our best shot.

I bet you a bazillion real dollars that doesn't happen. There's no chance that the Big 12 champ gets in ahead of us with the same record. None. Zero. Number of losses being equal, we win the tiebreaker against the Big 12 and lose the tiebreaker against the winner of a conference championship game. Undefeated Notre Dame is in unless the ACC, Big 10, Pac-12, and SEC all have undefeated conference champions.

 

[NorthDakota]

Undefeated ND is getting in. ACC or Big XII champ would get left out I'm thinking.

 

[Irish YJ]

"All" we really need is to beat GaTech, Clemson, and USC. Pretty obvious, but a Notre Dame team in the playoffs means TWO big 5 conference champs NOT in. ACC seems ripe to be one as everyone is already discounting them. Us beating USC and them winning the PAC-12 gets us in regardless --- we cannot lose a game.

Conference champs rule nowadays. If we went undefeated but so did OSU/MSU + UCLA/Oregon + Baylor/TCU, and there was one-loss Alabama/Auburn, then I'll bet we get stiffed. [people are having a guilt holdover for TCU/Baylor from last year]. Funny to hope to beat USC but them to win the PAC-12, but I intuit that this is our best shot.

But ... let's just beat Virginia for now.

Lol let's enjoy our first win and praise our OL and QB

 

[T Town Tommy]

TCU getting thinner on defense with the loss of Douglas. Will be interesting to see how their LBs play moving forward. Pretty young and inexperienced at that position. Could be an issue when they get into league play.

 

[gkIrish]

I bet you a bazillion real dollars that doesn't happen. There's no chance that the Big 12 champ gets in ahead of us with the same record. None. Zero. Number of losses being equal, we win the tiebreaker against the Big 12 and lose the tiebreaker against the winner of a conference championship game. Undefeated Notre Dame is in unless the ACC, Big 10, Pac-12, and SEC all have undefeated conference champions.

I'll go a step further and say an undefeated Notre Dame team would get in ahead of every other conference but the SEC most years. Ohio St. would get in ahead of us this year because they are the defending champs and the perception is that they are deserving but if you compared resumes it wouldn't be close.

 

[RDU Irish]

We are starting in the Top 10 this year, HUGE difference from that and working your way up from unranked. Now maybe a third of prognosticators have us Top 5 after the first game. We can win ugly from here out and make the playoffs easy, regardless of every single conference producing an undefeated champ (which would be unprecedented I am guessing).

 

[wizards8507]

I'll go a step further and say an undefeated Notre Dame team would get in ahead of every other conference but the SEC most years. Ohio St. would get in ahead of us this year because they are the defending champs and the perception is that they are deserving but if you compared resumes it wouldn't be close.

I don't know. Undefeated 13-0 is better than undefeated 12-0.

 

[ACamp1900]

tOSU didn't get in bc of some stupid 13th game... They got in bc the perception was they'd bring in more money.... ND is in the same boat...

 

[stlnd01]

For the love of Pete, if we're undefeated, we're in. Won't matter who wins what conference.
For the simple reason that almost no one ever makes it through the regular season undefeated (2009 was the last time more than two P5 teams did it). Certainly not no five teams.
More interesting conversation is what happens with one loss. So many variables there.

 

[connor_in]

For the love of Pete, if we're undefeated, we're in. Won't matter who wins what conference.
For the simple reason that almost no one ever makes it through the regular season undefeated (2009 was the last time more than two P5 teams did it). Certainly not no five teams.
More interesting conversation is what happens with one loss. So many variables there.

Apparently you haven't been following the CFB columnists this off season. ND isn't in a conference so they never get to go to a 4 team playoff.

 

[stlnd01]

I don't know. Undefeated 13-0 is better than undefeated 12-0.

Not sure the committee really sees it that way when two of those 13 wins are FCS schools. But we'll see.

 

[wizards8507]

tOSU didn't get in bc of some stupid 13th game... They got in bc the perception was they'd bring in more money.... ND is in the same boat...

Except zero members of the selection committee stood to benefit financially from playoff revenue. Maybe you could make the case for Barry Alvarez via the Big 10 payout, but that's it.

Unless you're suggesting ESPN, Ohio State, or the Big 10 were actively bribing committee members. Please use italics if sarcastic, because some of the conspiracy theorists around here probably believe just that.

Not sure the committee really sees it that way when two of those 13 wins are FCS schools. But we'll see.

That's my hope as well. The Narrative (TM) has been that Baylor and TCU were left out because they lacked a conference championship game, but I hope/believe their games against Buffalo and Samford were at least equally responsible.

 

[Irish Insanity]

On set of College Game Day, before our game of course, Herbie said we would lose 2 or 3 possibly of GT/USC/Clemson.

 

[koonja]

I'll go a step further and say an undefeated Notre Dame team would get in ahead of every other conference but the SEC most years. Ohio St. would get in ahead of us this year because they are the defending champs and the perception is that they are deserving but if you compared resumes it wouldn't be close.

That depends. FSU did that last year but had unimpressive victories, and was the 4th team in. I'm guessing OSU blows the doors off of most teams, but if they limp in like FSU did a year after their title victory, we're ahead of them. Hypothetically it's exactly what they did last year.

 

[wizards8507]

On set of College Game Day, before our game of course, Herbie said we would lose 2 or 3 possibly of GT/USC/Clemson.

Most people here thought the same thing before the season started. I saw a lot of folks with 10-3 projections and calling it "optimistic." We'll see if Mr. Herbstreit feels differently after the beating we laid on Texas.

 

[irishfan]

I bet you a bazillion real dollars that doesn't happen. There's no chance that the Big 12 champ gets in ahead of us with the same record. None. Zero. Number of losses being equal, we win the tiebreaker against the Big 12 and lose the tiebreaker against the winner of a conference championship game. Undefeated Notre Dame is in unless the ACC, Big 10, Pac-12, and SEC all have undefeated conference champions.

It would never happen, but a 12-0 ND fighting with a 12-0 TCU for the #4 seed could be trouble. Our schedule already kind of took a hit. Stanford was probably supposed to be the 4th toughest game and they looked horrible. They might turn it around, but they looked like a 6-6 or 7-5 team. Texas looked terrible, and I was hoping they'd be our 5th toughest game. they also look like a 6 or 7 win team at best. Pitt already lost their stud RB for the season. Besides Temple/Navy, I don't see anyone on our schedule right now who is going to get to 8 wins besides USC/Clemson/GT.

The Big-12 is so top heavy, TCU could go 12-0 with wins over 11-1 Baylor and 10-2 Oklahoma that look more impressive on paper than anything we'd potentially have. There's never that many undefeated teams to end the year, but I don't think we're a lock at 12-0 with our schedule if a disaster scenario (13-0 OSU, 13-0 Oregon, 12-1 SEC Champ, 12-0 TCU) were to happen.

 

[stlnd01]

That's my hope as well. The Narrative (TM) has been that Baylor and TCU were left out because they lacked a conference championship game, but I hope/believe their games against Buffalo and Samford were at least equally responsible.

Not sure if it was OSU merely having a championship game, so much as OSU demolishing Wisconsin in that championship game, along with the general agreement that Baylor and TCU's schedules are a joke, that made the difference there.

 

[wizards8507]

It would never happen, but a 12-0 ND fighting with a 12-0 TCU for the #4 seed could be trouble. Our schedule already kind of took a hit. Stanford was probably supposed to be the 4th toughest game and they looked horrible. They might turn it around, but they looked like a 6-6 or 7-5 team. Texas looked terrible, and I was hoping they'd be our 5th toughest game. they also look like a 6 or 7 win team at best. Pitt already lost their stud RB for the season. Besides Temple/Navy, I don't see anyone on our schedule right now who is going to get to 8 wins besides USC/Clemson/GT.

The Big-12 is so top heavy, TCU could go 12-0 with wins over 11-1 Baylor and 10-2 Oklahoma that look more impressive on paper than anything we'd potentially have. There's never that many undefeated teams to end the year, but I don't think we're a lock at 12-0 with our schedule if a disaster scenario (13-0 OSU, 13-0 Oregon, 12-1 SEC Champ, 12-0 TCU) were to happen.

I disagree. No matter what kind of beating our schedule takes, it'll be nowhere near as bad as Stephen F. Austin. I'm really not a big believer in strength of schedule as determined by final opponents' win-loss record. Stanford is a power five program and they're supposed to be at least "pretty good" year-in, year-out. It's not ND's fault if Stanford turns out to suck. Conversely, TCU knew 100% going in that they'd be able to beat Stephen F. Austin by 60. A 12-0 TCU isn't really 12-0, they're 11-0.

Similarly, I don't blame Ohio State that the Big 10 sucks. I blame Ohio State for Hawaii, Northern Illinois, and Western Michigan in consecutive home games.

 

[stlnd01]

It would never happen, but a 12-0 ND fighting with a 12-0 TCU for the #4 seed could be trouble. Our schedule already kind of took a hit. Stanford was probably supposed to be the 4th toughest game and they looked horrible. They might turn it around, but they looked like a 6-6 or 7-5 team. Texas looked terrible, and I was hoping they'd be our 5th toughest game. they also look like a 6 or 7 win team at best. Pitt already lost their stud RB for the season. Besides Temple/Navy, I don't see anyone on our schedule right now who is going to get to 8 wins besides USC/Clemson/GT.

The Big-12 is so top heavy, TCU could go 12-0 with wins over 11-1 Baylor and 10-2 Oklahoma that look more impressive on paper than anything we'd potentially have. There's never that many undefeated teams to end the year, but I don't think we're a lock at 12-0 with our schedule if a disaster scenario (13-0 OSU, 13-0 Oregon, 12-1 SEC Champ, 12-0 TCU) were to happen.

Could be. And the lack of both depth and, perhaps, marquee wins will hurt us if it comes to a scrum of one-loss teams. Gotta root for USC/Clemson/Ga. Tech to win a lot of games (aside from ours of course).
But it's a long season. The Pac 12 champ probably won't be undefeated. And I wouldn't give up just yet on Texas or Stanford turning out OK.

 

[NorthDakota]

On set of College Game Day, before our game of course, Herbie said we would lose 2 or 3 possibly of GT/USC/Clemson.

During the occasional good years with Bob, Tyrone, and Charlie,, I'd expect ND to win close against Tech, proceed to look great and beat Clemson by 10-14 points... Only to lose to USC by 14-21 points in a game that isn't as close as the scoreboard.

Unfortunately that's been the Notre Dame of my short life(I'm 23).

Fortunately, it seems like Kelly has put together a reasonably bad group of dudes. Seems like they have some attitude now. I'd be mildly surprised if they went undefeated or lose more than one game (barring a 2014 barrage of injuries).

We'll know more in a month but I honestly think this is the best team since Dr. Lou.

 

[ND NYC]

I disagree. No matter what kind of beating our schedule takes, it'll be nowhere near as bad as Stephen F. Austin. I'm really not a big believer in strength of schedule as determined by final opponents' win-loss record. Stanford is a power five program and they're supposed to be at least "pretty good" year-in, year-out. It's not ND's fault if Stanford turns out to suck. Conversely, TCU knew 100% going in that they'd be able to beat Stephen F. Austin by 60. A 12-0 TCU isn't really 12-0, they're 11-0.

Similarly, I don't blame Ohio State that the Big 10 sucks. I blame Ohio State for Hawaii, Northern Illinois, and Western Michigan in consecutive home games.

is that legal? can their AD go to jail for such a schedule?