You are absolutely right. And yet somehow this always seems to work out. As I typed in another thread, Kelly has never turned away a 5th year who has made any significant on-field contribution. This year would be the first time. Doesn't mean it won't happen, but I won't worry about it until NSD at the earliest, maybe not till we get through spring practice.
I keep a running tally of roster spots and this is what I have right now.
As far as red-shirts, Golson, Martin, Farley, and Schmidt are bet-the-house shoe-ins. Hegarty, and Williams are extremely likely as well.
That means if we assume Tillery comes, which I am, we have 3 remaining spots.
However, we know we will take a second RB and a sixth DB for sure. (84)
We are also extremely likely to take third LB (Coney), a fourth WR (ESB). (86)
And I think we's also take the Alabama comitt DE if he'd come and Alize Jones. (88).
Long story short, I think we are prepared to "oversign" as many as 3 right now (most likely 1 or 2). If Hardy had come back, I think he would have taken that 6th DB spot, keeping the numbers basically the same.
QB
1) Everett Golson, RSS
2) Malik Zaire, Jr. '17
3) Deshone Kizer, So. '18
RB
4) Tarean Folston, Jr. '16
5) Greg Bryant, Jr. '17
WR-slot
6) Amir Carlisle, Sr. '15
7) C.J. Prosise, Sr. '15
8) Torii Hunter, Jr. '17
WR-boundary
9) Chris Brown, Sr. '15
10) Will Fuller, Jr. '16
11) Corey Robinson, Jr. '16
12) Corey Holmes, So. ?
13) Justin Brent, So. ?
TE
14) Mike Heuerman, Jr. '17
15) Durham Smythe, Jr. '17
16) Tyler Luatua, So. '17
17) Nic Weishar, So. ?
OT
18) Ronnie Stanley, Sr. ‘16
19) Mike McGlinchey, Jr. '17
20) Alex Bars, So. ?
OT/OG
21) Hunter Biven, So. '17
22) Steven Elmer, Jr. '16
23) Quentin Nelson, So. ?
OG/C
24) Nick Martin, RSS
25) Mark Harrell, Sr. '16
26) Colin McGovern, Jr. '17
27) John Montelus, Jr. '17
28) Jimmy Byrne, So. ?
39) Sam Mustipher, So. ?
DT
30) Sheldon Day, Sr. '15
31) Jarron Jones, Sr. '16
32) Jacob Matuska, Jr. '17
33) Daniel Cage, So. '17
34) Jonathan Bonner, So. ?
35) Peter Mokwuah, So. ?
SDE
36) Isaac Rochell, Fr. '16
37) Grant Blankenship, So. '17
38) Jay Hayes, So. ?
WDE
39) Romeo Okwara, Sr. '15
40) Andrew Trumbetti, So. '17
41) Jhonnie Williams, So. ?
RUSH
42) Kolin Hill, So. '17
SAM
43) Jaylon Smith, Jr. '16
44) Dough Randolph, Jr. '17
45) Greer Martini, So. '17
MIKE
46) Joe Schmidt, RSS
47) Michael Deeb, Jr. '17
48) Nyles Morgan, So. '17
WILL
49) John Turner, Sr. '16
50) James Onwualu, Jr. '16
LB/S
51) Dru Tranquil, So. '17
SS
52) Matthias Farley, RSS
53) Elijah Shumate, Sr. '15
FS
54) Max Redfield, Jr. '16
CB
55) KeiVarae Russell, Sr. '15
56) Cole Luke, Jr. '16
57) Devin Butler, Jr. '16
58) Nick Watkins, So. ?
ST
59) Scott Daly, Jr. '16
60) Tyler Newsome
Very Likely Redshirts (I already included Golson, Hegarty, and Martin)
61) Matt Hegarty, RSS
62) Ishaq Williams
Recruits
63) QB- Brandon Wimbush
64) RB1 (ATH)- Josh Adams
65) WR1- Jalen Guyton
66) WR2- CJ Sanders
67) WR3- Miles Boykin
68) OL1- Jerry Tillery
69) OL2- Tristen Hoge
70) OL3- Trevor Ruhland
71) DT1- Brandon Tiassum
72) DT2- Elijah Taylor
73) DT/DE - Micah Dew-Treadway
74) RUSH- Bo Wallace
75) LB1- Josh Barajas
76) LB2- Asmar Bilal
77) CB1 - Nick Coleman
78) CB2 - Shaun Crawford
79) CB4- Ashton White
80) S - Nicco Fertitta
81) S - Prentice McKinney
82) K- Justin Yoon
Recruiting Needs
83) RB2 - (Jamabo, Brosette)
84) LB3- Coney
85) DB6- (Brewton, Buncom, Haughton, Marshall, Fitzpatrick, Dale...)
86) WR4- (St. Brown, Cager
Takes
87) WDE- Mekhi Brown
88) TE- Alize Jones
High Value Redshirts (depending on health)
Conor Hanratty
Jarrett Grace
Other Redshirt Possibilities
Chase Hounsell
Anthony Rabasa
Jalen Brown
