Body Blow Theory

[Whiskeyjack]

I'd like to see if that number holds up with players other than Koyack. TE is a very package dependant position and that could skew the numbers. I'd be more interested to see the amount our starting DL is playing versus the national average.

That's a good point. I have no idea how to go about verifying Kelly's assertions re snap counts. He's a savvy politician, and could be quoting a stat that isn't representative for our starters as whole. Though given our depth issues on the DL, I'd guess that unit at least is probably in similar territory.

Interesting take on the number of snaps. It could have plenty to do with the fact that we have not been able to put anyone away this year. Its not so much schedule, its the inability to control the game.

How is that not schedule related? Kelly's point is that the only non-P5 conference team we've played, Rice, was the reigning C-USA champion and has been playing well this year. We have no "glorified byes" during which we can safely rest our starters, which disadvantages us re healthy starters/ depth v. other playoff contenders.

You're correct to point out that if the Irish had played better against some opponents, our starters could have come off the field in the 3rd quarter instead of having to play the whole game. But I don't think you can argue that's unrelated to scheduling altogether.

 

[Old Man Mike]

.... however, if it applies to Koyack, it applies to the whole OLine [and Golson]. So there has been a lot of extra strain on many folks who could use a breather now and then.

As to the "body blow" theory: as far as I'm concerned "it ain't no theory", as I watched it for several groan-inducing years each time we played MSU in the "old days". The worst was my senior year when we had a VERY good but VERY thin team which beat up everyone halfway through the season, then we and MSU destroyed ourselves ruining both teams' records thereafter.

 

[greyhammer90]

.... however, if it applies to Koyack, it applies to the whole OLine [and Golson]. So there has been a lot of extra strain on many folks who could use a breather now and then. .

Does it? I have a hard time believing that our gelling OL and young QB would be likely to have been subbed out very often, no matter how many joke games we would play. Similarly, these are not positions that you see many teams "rest" until extremely late in the fourth quarter, and even then only in the most extreme of blowouts. As a result, I have a hard time believing that our starting OL would have many more snaps (let alone 40%) than an average team.

You could make the argument that 30 snaps against Jacksonville State is extremely different than 30 snaps against a team like North Carolina or Navy. This I would agree with.

 

[ND NYC]

ive often wondered why Navy seems to "play up" seemingly only in their marguee games (ie vs ND, pOSU etc) but cant seem to beat the "pedestrian, average" opponents on their schedule.

and what does that say about Navy?

 

[ND NYC]

well i do know koyack would not have played more snaps had niklas come back for another year...

anyway,

boggles my mind how much NAVY has gotten into the collective psyche and under the skin of ND Nation to the point where we would want to drop them entirely.

fascinating. and disturbing at the same time.

 

[Emcee77]

The other thing about Koyack is that we have little depth at his position. Luatua has a role, but neither Smythe nor Luatua is ready to take signficant reps and give Koyack a breather at this point. Koyack has to play every meaningful snap.

 

[TDHeysus]

this theory makes sense if you look overlook schedules and run queries to produce the conditions you are looking for;

does the body blow theory account for the 2007, 2008, 2009 teams being not very good teams (saying 'not very good' is being nice). Could those teams have lost to the wake forests, pittsburghs, and syracuse's simply because ND was just not a good team ?

if you were there, and watched those teams as intimately as I did(and most ppl on this board did) you know during those years, those teams ultimately were not good....

No theory is needed to know that ASU's offense is similar to UNC's offense (up tempo, and the QB does alot of running) and this will cause an issue with the ND defense(based on the UNC game). I came to this theory not by running queries but from watching each game this year and giving hypothesis based on the data I have collected. I dont think any of that has anything to do with ND playing Stanford, or Navy previously.

Or I can say that ND is going to have trouble with the ASU offense because they played Navy last week; because that is what my query data says.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

ive often wondered why Navy seems to "play up" seemingly only in their marguee games (ie vs ND, pOSU etc) but cant seem to beat the "pedestrian, average" opponents on their schedule.

and what does that say about Navy?

Just like every other program, Navy invests most heavily-- both emotionally and schematically-- in its marquee games. This year, its top two were OSU and ND, and the Middies almost won both. That's largely due to the fact that ND and OSU were doing the same thing; that is, they were emotionally and schematically invested in their own marquee games, which included VT (for OSU) and ASU (for ND). That required them to sacrifice preparing for Navy in favor of other opponents.

Put more plainly, OSU and ND got Navy's best shot, but Navy didn't have to deal with anything close to their best shots in return. Thus the close games.

We often discuss how every team on our schedule has their ND game circled on the calendar, and how difficult it is to "get up" emotionally week in and week out for the Irish. I do think there's a lot of truth to that, but it's only part of the story. The more significant issue is the staff's balancing act with schematic preparation. Spending the same amount of time preparing for each opponent would be stupid, since some games are obviously more important than others. But that means that we end up trusting our superior athleticism to overcome certain opponents with minimal schematic "wrinkles" to help us along, which in turn leads to a lot of close shaves since our schedule doesn't include any "glorified byes".

 

[irishog77]

Why is Navy considered a Power-5 team?

 

[ND NYC]

i hear you whiskey but at the end of the day...after that first snap...that first hit...in any football game...that should be all any football player on any team needs to "get up" for any game IMO.

i just dont subscribe to all this talk of ND players not being able to get up for all our games as we go thru the season. maybe we need a team shrink to go along with Longo. plus, we have TWO bye weeks this season.

and BTW what are they gonna do when they get to the NFL if this si their mindset. the more we discuss it the more it is "justified". i say hogwash.

play the damn games and give it your all every saturday for our lady--its the best time of your life, kid!

 

[koonja]

Just like every other program, Navy invests most heavily-- both emotionally and schematically-- in its marquee games. This year, its top two were OSU and ND, and the Middies almost won both. That's largely due to the fact that ND and OSU were doing the same thing; that is, they were emotionally and schematically invested in their own marquee games, which included VT (for OSU) and ASU (for ND). That required them to sacrifice preparing for Navy in favor of other opponents.

Put more plainly, OSU and ND got Navy's best shot, but Navy didn't have to deal with anything close to their best shots in return. Thus the close games.

We often discuss how every team on our schedule has their ND game circled on the calendar, and how difficult it is to "get up" emotionally week in and week out for the Irish. I do think there's a lot of truth to that, but it's only part of the story. The more significant issue is the staff's balancing act with schematic preparation. Spending the same amount of time preparing for each opponent would be stupid, since some games are obviously more important than others. But that means that we end up trusting our superior athleticism to overcome certain opponents with minimal schematic "wrinkles" to help us along, which in turn leads to a lot of close shaves since our schedule doesn't include any "glorified byes".

I don't give OSU a pass because it was the first game of the season and IDC who you're playing, you get up for that. But agree with the rest of your point.

 

[IrishFaninTX]

i hear you whiskey but at the end of the day...after that first snap...that first hit...in any football game...that should be all any football player on any team needs to "get up" for any game IMO.

i just dont subscribe to all this talk of ND players not being able to get up for all our games as we go thru the season. maybe we need a team shrink to go along with Longo. plus, we have TWO bye weeks this season.

and BTW what are they gonna do when they get to the NFL if this si their mindset. the more we discuss it the more it is "justified". i say hogwash.

play the damn games and give it your all every saturday for our lady--its the best time of your life, kid!

Very few teams play their best every game. The majority of teams do look ahead. Even though LSU is a team to reckon with over the last few years, I am betting Ole Miss was looking ahead to Auburn last week. TCU likely looked ahead to KSU and Utah could have looked ahead to Oregon. All of those teams lost to good teams when they were favored. It's not unreasonable that ND might have been looking ahead to ASU because Navy seemed so much inferior and didn't pose a threat. I think the same thing happened vs UNC. It happens to every team from time to time and most teams at least once per season. Probably accounts for a good majority of the upsets each season. Don't think that means ND needs a shrink.

 

[ep1987]

1. Navy are perceived as a relatively poor team; thus not much benefit gained from beating them other than avoiding a loss on record.

2. Navy are a physical team that plays up against ND; thus the injury risk is similar to a good power 5 team as our starters have to stay in the game and the option offense offsets their lesser athleticism.

3. College football playoff must be at the forefront when designing schedule whilst also factoring in recruiting/uniqueness of ND.

So why do we play Navy every year? How long until our debt is paid? Do they have to be an annual opponent (especially if they join a conference)?

 

[connect the dots]

1. Navy are perceived as a relatively poor team; thus not much benefit gained from beating them other than avoiding a loss on record.

2. Navy are a physical team that plays up against ND; thus the injury risk is similar to a good power 5 team as our starters have to stay in the game and the option offense offsets their lesser athleticism.

3. College football playoff must be at the forefront when designing schedule whilst also factoring in recruiting/uniqueness of ND.

So why do we play Navy every year? How long until our debt is paid? Do they have to be an annual opponent (especially if they join a conference)?

Let's see - A win against Navy will not help strength of schedule or ranking. Preparing for the Navy quarterback option is a pain in the ass/knee. And, playing someone from Texas, Georgia, or Florida would benefit recruiting more than a Navy game. Let's add to this list that the broadcast networks, and the assigned stadium, also do not like the Navy matchup. Four good reasons to ease on down the road.

 

[greyhammer90]

Though I'm not necessarily in the camp that wants to drop them, they have a worse difficulty/respect ratio than just about any team in the country. Losing to Navy is seen by many to be as bad as losing to a FCS opponent, though this is far from the truth.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Though I'm not necessarily in the camp that wants to drop them, they have a worse difficulty/respect ratio than just about any team in the country. Losing to Navy is seen by many to be as bad as losing to a FCS opponent, though this is far from the truth.

Exactly. And since CFB is all about public perception, that means playing Navy is all risk and virtually no benefit.

 

[Emcee77]

Though I'm not necessarily in the camp that wants to drop them, they have a worse difficulty/respect ratio than just about any team in the country. Losing to Navy is seen by many to be as bad as losing to a FCS opponent, though this is far from the truth.

Right, I think this is what Kelly meant when he said he had a lot of respect for Navy but if you ask any coach in the country, nobody wants to play Navy. It's a tough, tough game that for some reason everyone expects you to win.

 

[Luckylucci]

Exactly. And since CFB is all about public perception, that means playing Navy is all risk and virtually no benefit.

I agree with you guys as well. This was even said to me by a co-worker of mine last week (non-ND fan). I explained the background a little and while he thought it was noble, he still didn't think it should continue. His exact words were you have nothing to gain but a lot to lose both injuries and score.

 

[wizards8507]

Though I'm not necessarily in the camp that wants to drop them, they have a worse difficulty/respect ratio than just about any team in the country. Losing to Navy is seen by many to be as bad as losing to a FCS opponent, though this is far from the truth.

I think this exact point plagues ND in voters' minds with a TON of games, not just Navy. Schools like Rice, Purdue, Navy, and Syracuse are viewed on the same "cupcake" scale as Youngstown State, Eastern Kentucky, and Sam Houston State. A school like Baylor will hang 63 on Buffalo and then people want to know why ND couldn't blow out a service academy (*scoff*). A "no respect" opponent is a fine way to get a win on your schedule, as long as you can reliably predict that you're going to dominate them 50-6 every year. I don't LIKE that it's the case, but it's better to have a few crap wins and a few marquee wins than it is to have a full season of "okay to pretty good" wins.

EDIT: That said, no FBS team should be scheduling FCS opponents. I'm all for FBS cupcakes but FCS should never happen.

EDIT 2: Also, big bad SECSPN agrees: FCS opponents should be a thing of the past for SEC football teams - ESPN

 

[tussin]

EDIT 2: Also, big bad SECSPN agrees: FCS opponents should be a thing of the past for SEC football teams - ESPN

I'm not quite as big of an ESPN hater as others on here. That being said, I don't put much merit into one random SEC blog post. Let's see the talking heads on College Gameday or the Playoff show hammer home that point.

 

[wizards8507]

I'm not quite as big of an ESPN hater as others on here. That being said, I don't put much merit into one random SEC blog post. Let's see the talking heads on College Gameday or the Playoff show hammer home that point.

Kirk Herbstreit, week 4 or so (I'm paraphrasing): Baylor should be embarrassed by their schedule. I hope the committee punishes them because this is not acceptable.

Edit: Also, wouldn't the SEC blog be the biggest SEC apologist outfit in all of ESPN?

Edit 2 (found the quote): "When you play Northwestern State, Buffalo and SMU, I look at this in a year with a committee where Michigan State goes all the way out to Eugene, Oregon, and they play a game and lose - that's more impressive to me. Michigan State should have more an opportunity to get into the top four than Baylor. (The Bears) should be penalized for playing these three teams. … A loss in Eugene is better for Michigan State than winning those three games. It's embarrassing."

 

[tussin]

Kirk Herbstreit, week 4 or so (I'm paraphrasing): Baylor should be embarrassed by their schedule. I hope the committee punishes them because this is not acceptable.

Edit: Also, wouldn't the SEC blog be the biggest SEC apologist outfit in all of ESPN?

I think part of the reason Baylor got hammered for their non-conference was because of the perceived weakness of the Big12. You don't hear any talking heads ragging on any of the SEC teams with terrible non-conference because "OMG SEC in conference is so tough." See MSU or TAMU (who rode a shitty non-conference slate into the top 5).

That being said, props to Auburn, LSU, and Bama props for playing some good OOC games this year.

Re: your edit, I said I wouldn't give to much credit to ESPN because of the lack of reach a blog has compared to an analyst on TV.

 

[kmoose]

Yes, the ideal of keeping one's word in regards to a debt is antiquated and meaningless. After all, playing Navy is HARD. We shouldn't continue traditions that are tough, and compromise our success on the field. In fact, nothing compromises our ability to make the playoffs more than the strict academic rigors of ND being applied to football players. I think we should just abandon those, as well, and get back to dominating the rest of the country in football.

 

[ACamp1900]

Yes, the ideal of keeping one's word in regards to a debt is antiquated and meaningless. After all, playing Navy is HARD. We shouldn't continue traditions that are tough, and compromise our success on the field. In fact, nothing compromises our ability to make the playoffs more than the strict academic rigors of ND being applied to football players. I think we should just abandon those, as well, and get back to dominating the rest of the country in football.

Now we're talkin.....

 

[Andy in Sactown]

I'm sorry, but every time I see this thread I can't help but visualize this:

 

[connect the dots]

Yes, the ideal of keeping one's word in regards to a debt is antiquated and meaningless. After all, playing Navy is HARD. We shouldn't continue traditions that are tough, and compromise our success on the field. In fact, nothing compromises our ability to make the playoffs more than the strict academic rigors of ND being applied to football players. I think we should just abandon those, as well, and get back to dominating the rest of the country in football.

Sanctimonious - adjective sometimes hard to describe, but easy to recognize.

 

[clashmore_jon]

Yes, the ideal of keeping one's word in regards to a debt is antiquated and meaningless. After all, playing Navy is HARD. We shouldn't continue traditions that are tough, and compromise our success on the field. In fact, nothing compromises our ability to make the playoffs more than the strict academic rigors of ND being applied to football players. I think we should just abandon those, as well, and get back to dominating the rest of the country in football.

i feel like i'm in the minority cause i agree with this.

 

[dshans]

Think CCR:



"I see a body blow a'risin' ..."

 

[NDBoiler]

I'm sorry, but every time I see this thread I can't help but visualize this:

Ok, USA.

 

[Huntr]

Body Blow "Theory"

I don't even know where to begin with garbage like this.

And I'm a Feldman fan.