Oct 18 | Florida State

[GoldenToTheGrave]

We can all agree that FSU will be ND's toughest opponent this season, but looking at the 'Noles' schedule, the Irish are arguably their toughest game as well. I can't decide if that helps or hurts the Irish any. Maybe it doesn't make a difference at all.

It could be a pro for ND if the Irish are undefeated but aren't destroying opponents and FSU doesn't give them due credit and let their guard down. It could be a con if the 'Noles prep for and play the Irish like they are their toughest match up all year.

At least we know the recipe for besting FSU, based on the Auburn game. Granted Auburn was almost certainly the best defense that FSU went up against all year, but they managed to get pressure on Winston and make him uncomfortable in the pocket. If our corners can hold up to FSU's WRs and we get pressure we'll have a fighting chance on defense.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Plug the Semen Holes.

That is all.

We should all be grateful that Gatorade was invented at UF instead of FSU. Otherwise our players might be sipping on Seminole Fluid.

 

[ulukinatme]

It's stuff like the last several posts that brought me to IE.

 

[irishfan]

So, ESPN the Magazine sent their College Football preview out. Pretty fluff stuff in there as always. They have ND #15 and FSU #1 of course. However, they give FSU a 94.3% chance of beating us. Can't say I like those odds.

 

[koonja]

So, ESPN the Magazine sent their College Football preview out. Pretty fluff stuff in there as always. They have ND #15 and FSU #1 of course. However, they give FSU a 94.3% chance of beating us. Can't say I like those odds.

That % is ridiculous. I'd expect a 6% chance if it were a talentless roster combined with below avarege coaching. Maybe a San Jose St. taking an OSU. But we're ND, we have a QB who has potential if nothing else, a good to great coach, and have recruited well.

 

[GBdomer]

never mind

 

[Booslum31]

So, ESPN the Magazine sent their College Football preview out. Pretty fluff stuff in there as always. They have ND #15 and FSU #1 of course. However, they give FSU a 94.3% chance of beating us. Can't say I like those odds.

I believe that the odds are a bit higher than that that we win. However, if FSU believes it's going to be that easy then we might be looking at an instant classic.

 

[JTLA]

That % is ridiculous. I'd expect a 6% chance if it were a talentless roster combined with below avarege coaching. Maybe a San Jose St. taking an OSU. But we're ND, we have a QB who has potential if nothing else, a good to great coach, and have recruited well.

Sportsbook.ag currently has the line at Notre Dame +22, so 94% is about right.

PhilSteele created this chart to convert a line into percentage chance of the favorite losing outright.

Favorite of # of Gms Lost Outright %
31+ pts 596 6 1.01%
24.5-31 756 30 3.97%
17.5-24 1316 89 6.76%
14.5-17 836 110 13.16%
10.5-14 1458 306 20.99%
7.5-10 1360 359 26.39%
3.5-7 2476 865 34.94%
3 or less 1643 785 47.78%

https://www.sportsbook.ag/livesports/ncaaf

Phil Steele

 

[Whiskeyjack]

It's stuff like the last several posts that brought me to IE.

Come for the dick jokes, stay for the football.

So, ESPN the Magazine sent their College Football preview out. Pretty fluff stuff in there as always. They have ND #15 and FSU #1 of course. However, they give FSU a 94.3% chance of beating us. Can't say I like those odds.

Did they mention which model generated that prediction? Because that's a joke. No meeting between two top-15 teams is ever that skewed. The reputable models I follow will likely favor FSU 70/30 - 60/40.

They are being generous with those 6%

Are you trolling, or do you just not understand how probability works?

 

[GBdomer]

Come for the dick jokes, stay for the football.



Did they mention which model generated that prediction? Because that's a joke. No meeting between two top-15 teams is ever that skewed. The reputable models I follow will likely favor FSU 70/30 - 60/40.



Are you trolling, or do you just not understand how probability works?

I was making a joke....

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I was making a joke....

Good! You get pessimistic sometimes, Sully. If you honestly thought that FSU would beat us 19 times out of 20 on a neutral field, I was going to have to revoke your fanhood.

 

[Booslum31]

I was at the game the last time we played FSU when they were ranked #1...they went down like a prom dress! Fuck FSU!

 

[irishfan]

Good! You get pessimistic sometimes, Sully. If you honestly thought that FSU would beat us 19 times out of 20 on a neutral field, I was going to have to revoke your fanhood.

Well to be fair, it wont be a neutral field for the game this season. Which is what ESPN the Mag was predicting. FSU's lowest percentage is 86.8% at Miami and then 88.1% vs. Clemson. They must think highly of their home-field, because ESPN gives Syracuse at home a better chance (5.8%) of knocking off FSU than they give us (5.7%).

 

[irishfan]

Did they mention which model generated that prediction? Because that's a joke. No meeting between two top-15 teams is ever that skewed. The reputable models I follow will likely favor FSU 70/30 - 60/40.

The model they use is the "FPI" or the Football Power Index which they say: "Predicts and ranks team strength based on expected points added from offense, defense and special teams, adjusted for opponent strength. Using preseason FPI, ESPN Stats & Information has projected each team's chances of winning each game on its schedule based on the difference between the two teams' FPI, game site and game type."

So ya, I don't completely understand it lol. There are a lot of questionable percentages sprinkled around the whole preview issue.

FPI and Team Efficiencies - 2014 - ESPN

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Well to be fair, it wont be a neutral field for the game this season. Which is what ESPN the Mag was predicting. FSU's lowest percentage is 86.8% at Miami and then 88.1% vs. Clemson. They must think highly of their home-field, because ESPN gives Syracuse at home a better chance (5.8%) of knocking off FSU than they give us (5.7%).

That's all I needed to know about FPI.

 

[JTLA]

Well to be fair, it wont be a neutral field for the game this season. Which is what ESPN the Mag was predicting. FSU's lowest percentage is 86.8% at Miami and then 88.1% vs. Clemson. They must think highly of their home-field, because ESPN gives Syracuse at home a better chance (5.8%) of knocking off FSU than they give us (5.7%).

These percentages are all consistent with the oddsmakers' lines.

I know everyone is offended with being a 22 point underdog, but the market has spoken. Place your bets.

Florida State is -21 at Syracuse
(fyi, ND is only -5.5 at Syracuse)

Clemson is +19.5 at Florida State
Florida State is -17.5 at Miami


I post this link because there are more lines than just on Sportsbook.ag, however this data is not the latest information.
Golden Nugget’s college football point spreads have arrived | National Football Post

 

[Black Irish]

That % is ridiculous. I'd expect a 6% chance if it were a talentless roster combined with below avarege coaching. Maybe a San Jose St. taking an OSU. But we're ND, we have a QB who has potential if nothing else, a good to great coach, and have recruited well.

That's another aspect to consider. How do Kelly and Fisher stack up as HCs going head-to-head? Can Kelly outcoach & outcall Fisher?

 

[koonja]

That's another aspect to consider. How do Kelly and Fisher stack up as HCs going head-to-head? Can Kelly outcoach & outcall Fisher?

I'll subjectively take BK over Fisher all day, but FSU is simply significantly more talened of a team.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

That's another aspect to consider. How do Kelly and Fisher stack up as HCs going head-to-head? Can Kelly outcoach & outcall Fisher?

Absolutely. Prior to 2013, FSU was a perennial disappointment under Jimbo.

 

[Irish#1]

We should all be grateful that Gatorade was invented at UF instead of FSU. Otherwise our players might be sipping on Seminole Fluid.

He'll be here all week folks and don't forget to tip the wait staff.

So, ESPN the Magazine sent their College Football preview out. Pretty fluff stuff in there as always. They have ND #15 and FSU #1 of course. However, they give FSU a 94.3% chance of beating us. Can't say I like those odds.

Can't say I like ESPN the Magazine.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

He'll be here all week folks and don't forget to tip the wait staff.

Also, try the veal!

 

[woolybug25]

Absolutely. Prior to 2013, FSU was a perennial disappointment under Jimbo.

Despite their title last year, I still stand by my previous sentiment that Fisher is not a good coach. I hate the style of football they play too. His entire concept revolves around superior recruiting and then simply putting them out there to "street ball" their opponents. They go out and out-talent their opponents, plain and simple. He has had one of the most talented teams in football since he took over, and outside of last year, they consistently underachieve.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Despite their title last year, I still stand by my previous sentiment that Fisher is not a good coach. I hate the style of football they play too. His entire concept revolves around superior recruiting and then simply putting them out there to "street ball" their opponents. They go out and out-talent their opponents, plain and simple. He has had one of the most talented teams in football since he took over, and outside of last year, they consistently underachieve.

Agree. Jimbo has lived off athletic players that seem to not play well as a unit. He can be outcoached I think.

I think ND has a decent shot against FSU and would like it even more if the game was in SB. If, and it is a big if, the Irish can get pressure on Winston and show him multiple fronts, he can be rattled and confused (Auburn did just that.)

And if, another big if, ND can run the ball effectively on offense, then I like their chances. Good ball control, no turnovers, pressure defense, and get a break or two here and there and the Irish can sneak a win. Just my opinion.

 

[koonja]

Without knowing the scores, I feel like ND 'gets up' for big away games more-so than big home games during the Kelly era.

I'd still prefer it be home, but it being away doesn't scare me at all with this team.

 

[ResLife Hero]

Agree. Jimbo has lived off athletic players that seem to not play well as a unit. He can be outcoached I think.

I think ND has a decent shot against FSU and would like it even more if the game was in SB. If, and it is a big if, the Irish can get pressure on Winston and show him multiple fronts, he can be rattled and confused (Auburn did just that.)

And if, another big if, ND can run the ball effectively on offense, then I like their chances. Good ball control, no turnovers, pressure defense, and get a break or two here and there and the Irish can sneak a win. Just my opinion.

As someone more familiar with the SEC, do you think we have the horses in the stable to pull that off? I know a lot of the reports out of fall camp have people optimistic about the line, but my impression was that there was a big gap between Auburn's line last year and ours this season.

 

[Irish#1]

Agree. Jimbo has lived off athletic players that seem to not play well as a unit. He can be outcoached I think.

I think ND has a decent shot against FSU and would like it even more if the game was in SB. If, and it is a big if, the Irish can get pressure on Winston and show him multiple fronts, he can be rattled and confused (Auburn did just that.)

And if, another big if, ND can run the ball effectively on offense, then I like their chances. Good ball control, no turnovers, pressure defense, and get a break or two here and there and the Irish can sneak a win. Just my opinion.

That's how you beat more athletic teams. Take away the opportunities to be more athletic. Run between the tackles until you lull them in and then take your shot.

 

[T Town Tommy]

As someone more familiar with the SEC, do you think we have the horses in the stable to pull that off? I know a lot of the reports out of fall camp have people optimistic about the line, but my impression was that there was a big gap between Auburn's line last year and ours this season.

Hard to say right now. Depth may be an issue, and counting on newcomers to fill the void is tough. But Lawson from Auburn showed it can happen. If they can get Ishaq, Day, Jones, and a few others to step up then the Irish can maybe hold their own. Throw in BVG being aggressive and getting creative and you never know. Winston can be rattled fairly easily. Let's hope BVG can use that creativity to do just that.

 

[T Town Tommy]

That's how you beat more athletic teams. Take away the opportunities to be more athletic. Run between the tackles until you lull them in and then take your shot.

Les Miles made a killing doing just that a few years ago. ND averaged 151 YPG last year rushing the ball. If they can increase that to 180+ this year, one has to think they will be very good on offense. Depends on how well that OL gels. But with that, I think you got a great OL coach and he will have them boys hooked up pretty quickly.

 

[greyhammer90]

I just think of the Clemson game last year and think we'll be a Clemson-type of team next year. Not a great feeling

 

[Black Irish]

Agree. Jimbo has lived off athletic players that seem to not play well as a unit. He can be outcoached I think.

I think ND has a decent shot against FSU and would like it even more if the game was in SB. If, and it is a big if, the Irish can get pressure on Winston and show him multiple fronts, he can be rattled and confused (Auburn did just that.)

And if, another big if, ND can run the ball effectively on offense, then I like their chances. Good ball control, no turnovers, pressure defense, and get a break or two here and there and the Irish can sneak a win. Just my opinion.

I'm sure that BVG has the smarts to replicate what Auburn's D did to FSU in the 1st half of the BCS game. I just hope that the Irish players have the ability to make it happen and not let up after 2 quarters. If ND can fire on all cylinders and not let FSU break out and get comfortable, I also like the Irish's chances.