Will ND Football Ever Become Elite?

[NDdomer2]

I don't have the time to put together an elaborate, detailed post right now but I thought about this after the Georgia loss.

At first I was impressed with how we hung in there with a big name in the SEC. Then reality set in and I realized Georgia was a solid defense with a mediocre O line and no experience at the QB position.

Then I realized their D shut us down on offense all night. Our points came after flags. Yes, flags are thrown for a reason but it was obvious we weren't putting together long drives.

Then I did the one thing I hate doing.. I asked myself what the score would be if Bama was on the other side of the ball.

Would we compete just based on physicality alone?

In short, I think every 3 or 4 years we'll have the capability to do what Clemson did, IF.. IF.. IF the coaching/playcalling is up to par.

We just don't have the ability to recruit depth like some of these top tier football programs year after ear.

You see what happens when we get the Lynch's of the world.

That and BK always plays experience over talent.. I fukcing can't stand that.

georgia only had 1 non flag sustained drive that lead to scoring. It was pretty even on the poor drives and help from officials. iirc

 

[wizards8507]

georgia only had 1 non flag sustained drive that lead to scoring. It was pretty even on the poor drives and help from officials. iirc

"Georgia is also bad" isn't a great argument on ND's behalf.

 

[NDdomer2]

"Georgia is also bad" isn't a great argument on ND's behalf.

i wasnt stating it that way. Just thought if you are gonna be down on the fact we couldnt move the ball. It was both ways in the game. Is that because both teams are bad? Or is it evenly matched? We wont know fully until the season progresses further.

I am surprised no one has said we cant be elite because the fans are sell outs!

 

[Dizzyphil]

LSU was at least good, certainly not crappy. 8-4 in the SEC West's best year ever. Wins against ranked Wisconsin and #3 Ole Miss. Losses to 11 win (one time #1) Miss St, NC runner up Bama, #5 Auburn, #22 ND and a bad road loss to an Arkansas team that finished 7-6.

As to your second paragraph, you got me confused with someone else. The stats I provided agree with what you said.

To be fair, LSU's stats for that year also included blow-out wins against, Sam Houston State (56-0), Louisiana-Monroe (31-0), and New Mexico State (63-7).

I'm not wanting to start a war about this but that schedule to me can't put you in the 'Tough' category when a 4th of your schedule is beating up these teams.

 

[WaveDomer]

ND can be elite again. Get the right coach and it can happen. Yeah, only a handful of teams are truly elite, but once Saban retires, or the Devil comes to collect from their deal at the Crossroads, Bama will likely settle back to earth. Same goes for the Clemsons and Ohio States.

 

[Who'saWildManNow]

i wasnt stating it that way. Just thought if you are gonna be down on the fact we couldnt move the ball. It was both ways in the game. Is that because both teams are bad? Or is it evenly matched? We wont know fully until the season progresses further.

I am surprised no one has said we cant be elite because the fans are sell outs!

My point was that I expected their offense to be inconsistent. I think our D did an outstanding job against the run but Fromme didn't do much to take them away from it.

I think we're better this year but in regards to the question of reaching elite status I think we're at the bottom of a steep hill.

Can you honestly see Nick Saban having Bama success at Notre Dame? No.

And that's unfortunately what elite has become in college football. Being able to stack the deck incredibly heavy. Like I said, we'll have our shots every 3/4 years and that's if all the stars align.

 

[NDdomer2]

My point was that I expected their offense to be inconsistent. I think our D did an outstanding job against the run but Fromme didn't do much to take them away from it.

I think we're better this year but in regards to the question of reaching elite status I think we're at the bottom of a steep hill.

Can you honestly see Nick Saban having Bama success at Notre Dame? No.

And that's unfortunately what elite has become in college football. Being able to stack the deck incredibly heavy. Like I said, we'll have our shots every 3/4 years and that's if all the stars align.

I know when a lot of this came up last season and this offseason, I was among those who felt a sustained 3 year model is the best ND could do in current CFB landscape. Those ideas were ridiculed. Not good enough!

Sustained 3 year model - when the floor is 9-3 regular season. (8-4 on really bad years) and compete for playoffs/NC on those 3rd years. 8-4, 10-2, 11-1, repeat

Does this make you elite? I dont know. But id take it.

 

[Free Manera]

I know when a lot of this came up last season and this offseason, I was among those who felt a sustained 3 year model is the best ND could do in current CFB landscape. Those ideas were ridiculed. Not good enough!

Sustained 3 year model - when the floor is 9-3 regular season. (8-4 on really bad years) and compete for playoffs/NC on those 3rd years. 8-4, 10-2, 11-1, repeat

Does this make you elite? I dont know. But id take it.

That is basically FSU under Fisher and I think most of us here would be happy with that:

10-4
9-4
12-2
14-0
13-1
10-3
10-3
0-1

 

[NDRock]

That is basically FSU under Fisher and I think most of us here would be happy with that:

10-4
9-4
12-2
14-0
13-1
10-3
10-3
0-1

Exactly. People like to throw Alabama around to say how we could never be elite. Bama is doing things that nobody does or have done ever. There is no reason we can't be better than we are today and not cheat to do it. Will take the right hire and a commitment to winning by the school.

 

[BobbyMac]

To be fair, LSU's stats for that year also included blow-out wins against, Sam Houston State (56-0), Louisiana-Monroe (31-0), and New Mexico State (63-7).

I'm not wanting to start a war about this but that schedule to me can't put you in the 'Tough' category when a 4th of your schedule is beating up these teams.

Blasting 3 cup cakes doesn't change the fact that they played 6 teams that were ranked in the Top 10 at some point and Wisconsin that made it to #11. Two of their games were one score losses to teams ranked #1 during '14, one being an OT loss to NC runner up Bama.

Had they replaced the cupcakes with Texas, Washington and a 10-3 Memphis, it wouldn't had made them any better when they beat all of them.

 

[Dizzyphil]

Blasting 3 cup cakes doesn't change the fact that they played 6 teams that were ranked in the Top 10 at some point and Wisconsin that made it to #11. Two of their games were one score losses to teams ranked #1 during '14, one being an OT loss to NC runner up Bama.

Had they replaced the cupcakes with Texas, Washington and a 10-3 Memphis, it wouldn't had made them any better when they beat all of them.

Yes it does. If I could have 'Game-Time practices' against 3 cup cakes, I could be much better against other non-cup cake teams.

 

[Free Manera]

Exactly. People like to throw Alabama around to say how we could never be elite. Bama is doing things that nobody does or have done ever. There is no reason we can't be better than we are today and not cheat to do it. Will take the right hire and a commitment to winning by the school.

Yeah Bama is not realistic for anyone because they have a once in a generation (once in a century?) coach that is just rolling and he is unstoppable. There is elite and then there is complete power monopoly.

Almost everywhere else you need a lightning in a bottle season to win a championship and then you just want consistency and growth the rest of the years.

I think the elite teams are the ones that almost never lose as a favorite, blow out overmatched teams, and win half or more of their games against other elites. My elite list would be OSU, Michigan, Clemson, Oklahoma and FSU, with USC, PSU, the other OSU trying to break into that tier.

 

[IrishLax]

Yeah Bama is not realistic for anyone because they have a once in a generation (once in a century?) coach that is just rolling and he is unstoppable. There is elite and then there is complete power monopoly.

Almost everywhere else you need a lightning in a bottle season to win a championship and then you just want consistency and growth the rest of the years.

I think the elite teams are the ones that almost never lose as a favorite, blow out overmatched teams, and win half or more of their games against other elites. My elite list would be OSU, Michigan, Clemson, Oklahoma and FSU, with USC, PSU, the other OSU trying to break into that tier.

Even ignoring the utter mediocrity under Rich Rod/Hoke and looking just at Harbaugh...

2015 - 10-3, lost to both rivals, no BCS game, no conference or division championship, zero top 10 wins
2016 - 10-3, lost to one rival, lost BCS game, no conference or division championship, losing record versus teams ranked teams (but have to give them credit for PSU win that looked a lot better by end of the year after PSU got rolling)

They've still got an awful lot to prove, IMO.

 

[BobbyMac]

Yes it does. If I could have 'Game-Time practices' against 3 cup cakes, I could be much better against other non-cup cake teams.

I'll be interested to see how many people agree with that.

 

[Free Manera]

Even ignoring the utter mediocrity under Rich Rod/Hoke and looking just at Harbaugh...

2015 - 10-3, lost to both rivals, no BCS game, no conference or division championship, zero top 10 wins
2016 - 10-3, lost to one rival, lost BCS game, no conference or division championship, losing record versus teams ranked teams (but have to give them credit for PSU win that looked a lot better by end of the year after PSU got rolling)

They've still got an awful lot to prove, IMO.

The do have a lot to prove, but I'm giving Harbaugh the benefit of the doubt because he did it with lesser talent at Stanford. His recruiting classes have been very good so there is no reason to think Michigan won't continue to trend the right way. They will be winning 10 or more every year with an outlier season occasionally either way. They have been pretty good the last two years without having a great QB on the roster.

 

[Dizzyphil]

I'll be interested to see how many people agree with that.

Who cares? You need affirmation???? I don't.

I have coached. Real-time, game experience against competition is the best way to learn. And if I can get other teams to scrimmage mine, we get better from that experience. And if I can get lesser talented teams to scrimmage against, even better to give my 2s and 3s time to play.

 

[snoopdog]

As to the OP, yes.....

Notre Dame recruits well enough to be Elite.

Where they have been falling down is in Player Development.

Michigan State is roughly equivalent to ND year after year, with much inferior Recruiting classes. But they coach up their players .

Alabama recruits much better, but loses a ton of talent after their 3rd year. Similar to Ohio State.

By recruiting mostly 4 star classes and keeping them through the 4 years, Notre Dame could field teams of well coached Jr and Sr 4 stars, rather than playing freshmen 5 stars.

If they added player development to their repertoire....Notre Dame could be a top 10 team nearly every single year, AND occasionally compete for the NC when all the breaks go their way.

 

[Dizzyphil]

You do not have to subtract the LSU win. It was a W but it was not a great SEC team. Their defense was better than UGA this weekend, but their offense was not that great, and I do not remember their ST standing out, either.

However, I think claiming that he Music City Bowl was against a VERY GOOD team is overstating things.

NDCrusader and Lax, this is what I am agreeing with. LSU was not that good that year. Just because the Defense was was top 10, the offense was 80th, and they finished with a 8-4 record. The rationale that they were good based solely on the overall defensive rank doesn't make LSU in '14 'Very Good'.

 

[BobbyMac]

Who cares? You need affirmation???? I don't.

I have coached. Real-time, game experience against competition is the best way to learn. And if I can get other teams to scrimmage mine, we get better from that experience. And if I can get lesser talented teams to scrimmage against, even better to give my 2s and 3s time to play.

We're talking about two different things.

All I meant was, had LSU replaced the 3 FCS/basement FBS teams with bigger named programs that were down that year and even a Memphis team that ended up ranked #25, they wouldn't have been thought of as any better because they got all the testing they needed from the the SEC-W and Wisconsin that year.

 

[Dizzyphil]

We're talking about two different things.

All I meant was, had LSU replaced the 3 FCS/basement FBS teams with bigger named programs that were down that year and even a Memphis team that ended up ranked #25, they wouldn't have been thought of as any better because they got all the testing they needed from the the SEC-W and Wisconsin that year.

Yea, I saw that. Drifted off the subject a little/lot a bit!

Sometimes I wish we could all meet and sit and talk so the emotions and body-language plus discussion would stay on-track.....

would have to leave the knives, guns and brass-knuckles at home though

grin:

edit: maybe that last line shouldn't be italics??

 

[BobbyMac]

First off, I don't want Dantonio, nor am I one of these guys after BK with a pitchfork. But since '10... excluding '16 when both guys sucked equally:

BK has a 3-2 head to head advantage.

BK is 10-18 against ranked teams. MD is 17-11.

BK has 5 bad losses to meh teams, MD has 2.

BK is 1-3 in major bowls or against a good major team so I'm counting LSU/Music City Bowl

MD is 3-2 plus he's 2-1 in the B1G Championship.

SOS avg over the 6 seasons: BK = 20, MD = 26.

LSU was not good. I think the only reason you are including that is because ND won. That was a crappy bowl game against a crappy LSU team. Kelly is 0 for 3 against GOOD to ELITE teams.

You do not have to subtract the LSU win. It was a W but it was not a great SEC team. Their defense was better than UGA this weekend, but their offense was not that great, and I do not remember their ST standing out, either.

However, I think claiming that he Music City Bowl was against a VERY GOOD team is overstating things.

LSU was at least good, certainly not crappy. 8-4 in the SEC West's best year ever. Wins against ranked Wisconsin and #3 Ole Miss. Losses to 11 win (one time #1) Miss St, NC runner up Bama, #5 Auburn, #22 ND and a bad road loss to an Arkansas team that finished 7-6.

To be fair, LSU's stats for that year also included blow-out wins against, Sam Houston State (56-0), Louisiana-Monroe (31-0), and New Mexico State (63-7).

I'm not wanting to start a war about this but that schedule to me can't put you in the 'Tough' category when a 4th of your schedule is beating up these teams.

NDCrusader and Lax, this is what I am agreeing with. LSU was not that good that year. Just because the Defense was was top 10, the offense was 80th, and they finished with a 8-4 record. The rationale that they were good based solely on the overall defensive rank doesn't make LSU in '14 'Very Good'.

All I ever said was LSU was at least a good team in 2014.

Didn't say they were great, very good or tough... just a good (major) team

 

[NDFan4Life]

I'll post a full list later but I'll just say that the other Harbaugh is at the top of my list and I think he's more gettable than people realize. If he loses in Baltimore this year I think he is out of a job and on the market. Second, his daughter might come play lacrosse at ND. Third, there's the Catholic connection.

If his daughter (and that's their only child, btw) is at ND and his choices are 1) broadcasting 2) another NFL job [maybe] 3) ND for $8mil/year... what's his best option? Let's say he had a choice between the Browns job or ND job... which do you think he'd take? That's who I'd target the hardest and make the best offer I could before moving down the list.

Did a little research on Harbaugh's daughter. She's a sophomore this year, I believe. This means that we'd have to put up with Kelly for another 2 years, if ND manages to land her.

 

[IrishLax]

Did a little research on Harbaugh's daughter. She's a sophomore this year, I believe. This means that we'd have to put up with Kelly for another 2 years, if ND manages to land her.

Not sure I follow the math, I might be misunderstanding your point.

So, let's say Harbaugh gets fired this year. And ND fires Kelly. He could still take the job and relocate the family then and everything makes sense... she'd do another two years of HS then go to ND. Right?

 

[stlnd01]

As to the OP, yes.....

By recruiting mostly 4 star classes and keeping them through the 4 years, Notre Dame could field teams of well coached Jr and Sr 4 stars, rather than playing freshmen 5 stars.

If they added player development to their repertoire....Notre Dame could be a top 10 team nearly every single year, AND occasionally compete for the NC when all the breaks go their way.

Player retention is also an issue. We lose a lot of guys through academics/discipline/attrition who we can't replace with JUCOs (which I'm fine with but won't deny hurts our ability to quickly reload). Some of that comes back to recruiting kids who fit at Notre Dame, and the unique challenges of the place.

But, yeah, with more consistent player development I think we should expect 9 or 10 wins a year, with 11 or 12 when we catch some breaks and the occasional 8 when they go the other way. That'd be fine by me.

 

[connor_in]

As to the OP, yes.....

Notre Dame recruits well enough to be Elite.

Where they have been falling down is in Player Development.

Michigan State is roughly equivalent to ND year after year, with much inferior Recruiting classes. But they coach up their players .

Alabama recruits much better, but loses a ton of talent after their 3rd year. Similar to Ohio State.

By recruiting mostly 4 star classes and keeping them through the 4 years, Notre Dame could field teams of well coached Jr and Sr 4 stars, rather than playing freshmen 5 stars.

If they added player development to their repertoire....Notre Dame could be a top 10 team nearly every single year, AND occasionally compete for the NC when all the breaks go their way.

So you want Mike Brey to take over the football team? Or Mark Dantonio from MSU?

 

[snoopdog]

Well I wouldn't completely fall apart if Dantonio took over. But at his age and what he just went through at MSU he is probably by his sell date.

But certainly David Shaw at Stanford fills the bill.

 

[zelezo vlk]

David Shaw would rather admit that there are more than 2 kids in Alabama that he could get admitted to Stanford than become the ND head coach.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk

 

[philipm31]

I'll be interested to see how many people agree with that.

If he means that allows you to play more players and get a deeper team, with more players gaining meaningful game experience, while not having to use your starters, then that is a fair point. Not sure it hones your starters that much, but it helps to make your team deeper.

 

[NDFan4Life]

Not sure I follow the math, I might be misunderstanding your point.

So, let's say Harbaugh gets fired this year. And ND fires Kelly. He could still take the job and relocate the family then and everything makes sense... she'd do another two years of HS then go to ND. Right?

Yeah, that doesn't make a whole lot of sense now that you mention it. It somehow made sense in my head though. Must be the acid flashbacks again.

It would be great if we could get him, but from what I've read, she may also be recruited by BC and Johns Hopkins.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

SI doesn't have ND in their latest bowl projections. SMH....