Interesting stat from Grantland:
True, but context is important. 42% success rate over, hypothetically, three attempts would mean Seattle had about an 80% chance of scoring a TD just feeding Lynch the ball. But the bigger question is whether or not 12 attempts is statistically a large enough sample to mean anything. I wonder what the success rate is for all RBs?
So then what you need is large sample size data for passing attempts inside the 3 yard line to determine their success rate, their interception rate, and their negative play (i.e. sack) rate.
I actually don't think throwing it was a bad idea. I think the specific pass play they called was ridiculous though. I don't know how you don't play action or roll Wilson to one side.